Preview AFL 2nd Qualifying Final - Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 7:50PM Friday 5 September

[Play it Sam]

I think if anyone thinks McIntosh won't play in the ruck on Friday night they have rocks in their heads. CS has always liked the three tall option and was keen on the McIntosh/Simpson/Blicavs combination earlier in the season. Walker may be seen as the replacement for Simpson in that trio, with him and McIntosh rotating forward, while Blitz does his usual thing as the everywhere man, and all three having turns in the ruck.

Agree with this, Walker might get the gig, given how Hawthorn play tall.
GHS- They've stuck with Georgie boy all year, can't see that changing, although
Therlow and Brown would be stiff, GHS if right, has more poise.
Disagree on Kelly - his disposal has been a feature of his game for many years,
beautiful pinpoint accuracy, a few brain fades doesn't change that.

 

[allrighty]

People thinking abusing players on their own team is a reasonable thing to do and that it has no impact on their performance. I'd hate to think how many times guys like Varcoe, Brown, Smedts, etc have copped "soft", "squib", "coward" and the like over the fence at the game. And this is from a supporter group that's seen the most successful run in terms of wins any team has had ever. I'm not surprised guys like that struggle with their confidence at times.

Yes and similarly I chuckled at the Norf flog on Bay 13 who said Marcus Ashcroft was the worst triple premiership player ever. I am sure Ashcroft is quite upset at that (not), and that said flog could have done a better job than him had he played in his place. But of course he wasn't playing was he?

Remember it takes all types, even on here.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Pretty sure there was someone else playing through that area at times Squishy. Kicked as many goals as Walker, had more possessions, and 6 inside 50s.

I wonder who that might have been Partridge

Yes, I take your point Partridge + thank you for always being so pleasant + instructive with me, really helps me to learn It's very refreshing to have my comments corrected, in such an affable way.

My comment was way too simplistic. I was trying to make the point that with Walker + his friend Brown, Tomakawk was freed from having three defenders hanging off him + able to take 10 marks + boot seven goals. Probably not all as a result of Walker + Brown, but having talls around helped. Is that a fair thought, Partridge?

 

[vinum coupe]

Where can you watch it vc?

http://www.foxsports.com.au/video?vc=208

 

[catempire]

http://www.foxsports.com.au/video?vc=208

 

[allrighty]

MRP clear this week. No Doms no others, as it should be.

 

[vinum coupe]

View attachment 77300

What's wrong?

 

[vinum coupe]

Just click on the scott part below that. It will play

 

[Lana]

I have to agree that whenever Kelly gets the ball I cringe a little wondering if he's going to butcher the disposal. I don't think he has ever been a great kick of the ball, and this year hasn't been great in that regard. I think where Pops gets let-off is that his inside pressure acts are first rate, and so we accept his deficiencies better. Smedts & Co. don't have the runs on the board like Kelly does, they haven't proven themselves yet so some ppl are more critical of them.

Edit: the following is wrong as pointed out by vinum coupe, clangers include free kicks against

Kelly have given away the most clangers(direct turnovers), 16% of his disposals are clangers, By percentage of disposals Burbury and McCarthy are the worst with more than a quarter of there disposals being turnovers. In contrast Thurlow(4.65%) and Stokes(7.17%) are the least likely to turn the ball over. Varcoe (8.1%)

For selection this week
Walker at 16.67% vs Brown at 8.7%
McCarthy 30.91% vs Thurlow 4.65%

 

[vinum coupe]

Lana, 30 of Kellys clangers are free kicks against.
Not turn overs from kicks.

4 for McCarthy
7 for burbury.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Kelly have given away the most clangers(direct turnovers), 16% of his disposals are clangers, By percentage of disposals Burbury and McCarthy are the worst with more than a quarter of there disposals being turnovers. In contrast Thurlow and Stokes are the least likely to turn the ball over.

Yeah, you're preaching to the choir here. He's a great tackler and inside pressure player, but his disposals (particularly his kicking) isn't great at times. But he still offers much value to the squad, despite his flaws. Let me say this though, I'm not saying that every kick he does is a clanger. His short kicking is generally OK, it's his long kicks that worry me the most.

 

[cats_09]

Yeah, you're preaching to the choir here. He's a great tackler and inside pressure player, but his disposals (particularly his kicking) isn't great at times. But he still offers much value to the squad, despite his flaws. Let me say this though, I'm not saying that every kick he does is a clanger. His short kicking is generally OK, it's his long kicks that worry me the most.

I generally find his kicking out of the backline to a target is ok, but when he has no option or even some of his kicks into the forward line which worries me most.

 

[Lana]

Lana, 30 of Kellys clangers are free kicks against.
Not turn overs from kicks.

4 for McCarthy
7 for burbury.

I assumed that clangers were just from disposal. I looked around for a strong definition of clanger, but most of the definitions were very vague. The best one I could find was from wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clanger_(Australian_rules_football)

A turnover or a mistake made by a player

• Any disposal or deliberate knock-on that goes directly to an opposition player.[2]

• Any free kick conceded

• Dropped marks or fumbles under no pressure

• 50-metre penalties conceded

• A Ball-Up Kick In (Stepping over the line when kicking in after a behind)

Besides Free kicks against, I can't find statistics to measure direct turnovers by disposal, the best measure availale is (clangers - free kicks against)/(total disposals)

Of our regulars Kelly,Motlop, Murdoch and Johnson are our worst performed

 

[bulletproof]

I just watched it.
Unless what is on the website doesn't contain the full video, I don't know how anyone has come up with the conclusion that Walker and HMac will ruck.

Yes, I just watched the same video. He gave nothing away at all. All options are on the table.

 

[catempire]

Re: 10lana's table:

Smedts narrative undermined.

Thurlow will be a jet.

Selwood surprises slightly, what a superstar. Especially given how many of his possessions are under pressure.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I assumed that clangers were just from disposal. I looked around for a strong definition of clanger, but most of the definitions were very vague. The best one I could find was from wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clanger_(Australian_rules_football)

A turnover or a mistake made by a player

• Any disposal or deliberate knock-on that goes directly to an opposition player.[2]

• Any free kick conceded

• Dropped marks or fumbles under no pressure

• 50-metre penalties conceded

• A Ball-Up Kick In (Stepping over the line when kicking in after a behind)

Besides Free kicks against, I can't find statistics to measure direct turnovers by disposal, the best measure availale is (clangers - free kicks against)/(total disposals)

Of our regulars Kelly,Motlop, Murdoch and Johnson are our worst performed

View attachment 77324

Great job with those stats 10lana! I guess we could get really technical and ask you to go and work out how many disposals for each player have put a teammate under the hammer and caused the turnover at that time- the first player gets credited with an effective disposal because the ball got to their teammate OK but the teammate loses it when they're tackled or whatever, so they're the one who gets a cross for the clanger next to their name

There's nothing quite like someone trying to complicate things, is there? The reason I mentioned this is because there's been quite a bit of criticism of Travis Varcoe, for example, handpassing to a teammate in congestion. But Varcoe's clanger % is waaaayyy down the bottom of your list, at 5%

 

[meto]

Great job with those stats 10lana! I guess we could get really technical and ask you to go and work out how many disposals for each player have put a teammate under the hammer and caused the turnover at that time- the first player gets credited with an effective disposal because the ball got to their teammate OK but the teammate loses it when they're tackled or whatever, so they're the one who gets a cross for the clanger next to their name

There's nothing quite like someone trying to complicate things, is there? The reason I mentioned this is because there's been quite a bit of criticism of Travis Varcoe, for example, handpassing to a teammate in congestion. But Varcoe's clanger % is waaaayyy down the bottom of your list, at 5%

Do they count the one's that go skyward and not to anyone in particular? Gee young Jacko's tracking nicely for a new comer.

 

[Teriyakicat]

After hearing CS on the couch I think he will play McIntosh as the main key forward alongside Hawkins and will use Blicavs and Walker as the mobile ruckman for 2 reasons. McIntosh will stretch the medium sized hawks defence more than brown and walker and also wont get exploited the other way by Ceglar and Hale. Both hawks ruckman are not giants so doubt they will smash walker and blicavs in the middle.

McIntosh and Blicavs lost the hitout count 47-30 against the Hawks in R22, but we won the clearances 37-34. Do you think a ruck setup of Walker/Blicavs will do better than McIntosh/Blicavs? I think I'd rather have Walker or Brown at CHF than HMac, just because they appear to be more mobile than he is.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Do they count the one's that go skyward and not to anyone in particular?

Depends on who gets it- if a teammate grabs it, it's not a turnover. If the opposition get it... clanger!!
Same goes if someone kicks the ball along the ground out into the open spaces...

 

[meto]

Depends on who gets it- if a teammate grabs it, it's not a turnover. If the opposition get it... clanger!!
Same goes if someone kicks the ball along the ground out into the open spaces...

So it's sort of up to your teammate after pitching it away, I suppose!....I like Jackson's stat, he's capable of low bullet passes as well, I like him on a wing where he can use his offensive abilities. Not wasteful.

 

[Teriyakicat]

So it's sort of up to your teammate after pitching it away, I suppose!....I like Jackson's stat, he's capable of low bullet passes as well, I like him on a wing where he can use his offensive abilities.

I agree with your comment about Thurlow on the wing- I think that him getting a chance will come down to how well Murdoch is playing. To me, although Murdoch has the pace, they appear to play a similar role. Putting both of these players in the same team would mean that we have a tight squeeze elsewhere- ie fitting in an extra inside player or a crumber or whatever. I guess that's why we have coaches and the MC- to make those week to week decisions based on the opposition... sometimes they get it wrong.

 

[Lana]

Great job with those stats 10lana! I guess we could get really technical and ask you to go and work out how many disposals for each player have put a teammate under the hammer and caused the turnover at that time- the first player gets credited with an effective disposal because the ball got to their teammate OK but the teammate loses it when they're tackled or whatever, so they're the one who gets a cross for the clanger next to their name

There's nothing quite like someone trying to complicate things, is there? The reason I mentioned this is because there's been quite a bit of criticism of Travis Varcoe, for example, handpassing to a teammate in congestion. But Varcoe's clanger % is waaaayyy down the bottom of your list, at 5%

The definition of some common afl stats are really weird, things like effective disposals, contested possessions don't really represent what they claim to. What I am trying to do is break certain stats into different components, to find "hidden stats". I was trying to reconstruct turnovers from clangers. I can't create a stat for how many turnovers occur in a subsequent disposal, it wouldn't supprise me if Champion Data sells that information directly to the club. What I can do is create a list for ineffective disposals that do not result in an imediate turnover. It goes out of bounds/the ball becomes in dispute(who ever gets the ball next gets a contested possession.

Depends on who gets it- if a teammate grabs it, it's not a turnover. If the opposition get it... clanger!!
Same goes if someone kicks the ball along the ground out into the open spaces...

It *might* not be considered a clanger but it would be considered an ineffective disposal even if your own team got the ball.

 

[Teriyakicat]

The definition of some common afl stats are really weird, things like effective disposals, contested possessions don't really represent what they claim to. What I am trying to do is break certain stats into different components, to find "hidden stats". I was trying to reconstruct turnovers from clangers. I can't create a stat for how many turnovers occur in a subsequent disposal, it wouldn't supprise me if Champion Data sells that information directly to the club. What I can do is create a list for ineffective disposals that do not result in an imediate turnover. It goes out of bounds/the ball becomes in dispute(who ever gets the ball next gets a contested possession.

It *might* not be considered a clanger but it would be considered an ineffective disposal.

I like playing with the stats, too- you've gone to a lot of trouble to try and pinpoint a particular area, which is great, but wouldn't it be really good if we could just find these stats all on the one site? Even if we had to pay an annual fee to access them (hopefully a very small fee , I'd be happy. I was trying to find effective hitout stats- did see them one day ages ago but can't seem to locate them again. They are in the weekly newspaper here but I haven't been keeping track of them, unfortunately.

Footywire have some stats, the AFL tables site has stats- some different from F/W, I think, then there's the AFL site itself that has additional stats... so it's a matter of pulling up 3 websites or making your own tables all the time.

I guess the other, lengthier, option would be to re-watch the game and collect our own stats-- much MUCH too painful

 

[meto]

I agree with your comment about Thurlow on the wing- I think that him getting a chance will come down to how well Murdoch is playing. To me, although Murdoch has the pace, they appear to play a similar role. Putting both of these players in the same team would mean that we have a tight squeeze elsewhere- ie fitting in an extra inside player or a crumber or whatever. I guess that's why we have coaches and the MC- to make those week to week decisions based on the opposition... sometimes they get it wrong.

I reckon they'd be stupid to keep vacillating with him, the kids a brilliant overhead mark ideal forward or back with pace. Had most marks taken at the Aust Carnival in his draft year.
20 Disposals and 6 marks last week, you wouldn't want to wet blanket that!

 

[Teriyakicat]

I reckon they'd be stupid to keep vacillating with him, the kids a brilliant overhead mark ideal forward or back with pace. Had most marks taken at the Aust Carnival in his draft year.
20 Disposals and 6 marks last week, you wouldn't want to wet blanket that!

The club knows what his strengths are and what he has to offer- he definitely will get more game time next year. What I don't like is the fact that the club gives him (and others like Brown and Walker) very little game time during the year but then expects them to be able to stand up in big games at the end of the year. Sometimes it's just a disaster- like playing Walker in the QF last year was although, to be fair, he did play in R21 and 22 but he was expected to help fill the hole left by the absence of Tom Hawkins after playing just one of his two previous games alongside him.

Thurlow seems to be a very composed player under pressure but it's still a big ask to bring him in late in the season then expose him to the high pressure of finals. He's now played 3 in a row (1? as a sub)- but it's still tough on a player with just 8 games experience.