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5 Bucks said:
They ARE dropping off is the point. Beating Geelong who hadn't even warmed up yet at round 4 is all well and good but doesn't mean they're in great form now, and their current recent efforts are proof of that
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Theyre dropping off because one of their two losses came within the highly important two week form window? They are 3-1 in the last month with two of those wins coming against top 4 teams...

If that's the Dees dropping off the rest of the comp may as well pack it in if they can get back to their best
 
Jugada said:
Dees have been the best team since I signalled it pre Tigs. Everyone else is just various levels of being late to the party obviously. I look forward to the day you jump on board
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It's pronounced Wooofas - as the market shows
 
Jugada said:
Theyre dropping off because one of their two losses came within the highly important two week form window? They are 3-1 in the last month with two of those wins coming against top 4 teams...

If that's the Dees dropping off the rest of the comp may as well pack it in if they can get back to their best
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Three weeks - one massive less week than you are willing to use to suggest the dogs are going average ;)
 

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Jugada said:
Average in terms of trying to match the mighty Dees
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That’s true. The fact the Woofas haven’t faced the crows yet probably makes the dogs record a lot worse than it would seem
 
Hard to know how we stack up against the Dees given Treloar, Dunkley, Martin, Wood and McLean out when we played them.

Cant see any team other than Dogs or Dees winning minor, given the Dogs draw home the Rd20 clash pretty much a lock to decide it.
 
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If they are going to continue to play like they did for the first 13 rounds then they won't get close.

If they have regrouped during the bye and have a renewed approach to the rest of the season then they're certainly going to be a much better chance than 1 in 21.

They're going to have to win 7 of the last 8 to make a certainly of it, which is really unlikely, but I guess not absolutely impossible; or win 6 of the last 8 and buff their percentage up somewhere along the way. Wouldn't be surprised if we see an Essendon in 2019 type situation where the 8th placed team is 12-10 and with mid 90s percentage, in which case they could still sneak in off winning 6 from the last 8 here.

You're not betting on what they've dished up this year (at least not until prior to the Richmond game), you're betting on them hopefully having found something during the bye and coming home strong. It's unlikely, but you can't ignore the fact that they've just held Richmond to their lowest score in almost 60 years. It's a good start. I got a bit on.
 
BuddysBiggestFan said:
St Kilda have a tough run home but if the rest of the season is played in a Melbourne hub is $21 on SB overs to make the 8?
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$210 might interest me - I have them missing by 2 games and 20%
 
benji21 said:
Probably better off just backing them to win every game from here on. You'll get better than 2 bucks for most.
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If they beat a Brisbane or a Port (unlikely) and then all their games are in Vic they'll be favourite in all the games from there except Geelong. Home team is almost always favourite unless the opponent is considerably more highly regarded. A game with West Coast for example if it was to happen this week with the Saints in Vic would be Saint Kilda a short favourite to even money, where as a game in Perth with them the away team would be $3+.
 

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Bucking Bronco said:
If they beat a Brisbane or a Port (unlikely) and then all their games are in Vic they'll be favourite in all the games from there except Geelong. Home team is almost always favourite unless the opponent is considerably more highly regarded. A game with West Coast for example if it was to happen this week with the Saints in Vic would be Saint Kilda a short favourite to even money, where as a game in Perth with them the away team would be $3+.
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I would rate Saints slightly better than Hawks, Port are 1.33 vs the hawks this weekend. Brissy and port playing against saints in Melb would both start 1.50.
Massively overrating saints. Would love to see the stats for teams with a percentage in the 80s and 90s making the 8. I think Essendon did with the 90s a few years ago but out side of that it would be very rare.
 
benji21 said:
I would rate Saints slightly better than Hawks, Port are 1.33 vs the hawks this weekend. Brissy and port playing against saints in Melb would both start 1.50.
Massively overrating saints. Would love to see the stats for teams with a percentage in the 80s and 90s making the 8. I think Essendon did with the 90s a few years ago but out side of that it would be very rare.
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I said the games after Brisbane/ Port. If they happen to beat one of them - again, unlikely, but you never know - they will be favourite vs West Coast, Carlton, Sydney and Fremantle if they are all in Vic and they keep winning. You're not going to get close to $21 of value by betting them every week if they keep winning.

The bet for sure most likely loses - I'm expecting it to - but profitable betting is about taking stuff that is better odds to win than it is priced, and as it stands right now going into this round $21 is longer odds than where it should be.
 
Bucking Bronco said:
.

The bet for sure most likely loses - I'm expecting it to - but profitable betting is about taking stuff that is better odds to win than it is priced, and as it stands right now going into this round $21 is longer odds than where it should be.
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No it's not - its gross unders
 
iluvparis said:
Squiggle gives them a 2% chance of making it so you'd probably want 50s at least.
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Squiggle is rubbish. It just picks the favoured outcome every time from what I've seen.

How many decently priced dogs does it pick successfully to win each week? I've not spent much time following it's picks becauase of how horrendously off it's been on said games, but it just seems to regurgitate what the odds are saying. Rubbish.
 

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Bucking Bronco said:
I said the games after Brisbane/ Port. If they happen to beat one of them - again, unlikely, but you never know - they will be favourite vs West Coast, Carlton, Sydney and Fremantle if they are all in Vic and they keep winning. You're not going to get close to $21 of value by betting them every week if they keep winning.

The bet for sure most likely loses - I'm expecting it to - but profitable betting is about taking stuff that is better odds to win than it is priced, and as it stands right now going into this round $21 is longer odds than where it should be.
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I would price them winning the next 3 games at about 15 - 18 dollars by itself.
 
Bucking Bronco said:
Squiggle is rubbish. It just picks the favoured outcome every time from what I've seen.

How many decently priced dogs does it pick successfully to win each week? I've not spent much time following it's picks becauase of how horrendously off it's been on said games, but it just seems to regurgitate what the odds are saying. Rubbish.
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Squiggle tipping the saints this week despite the Pies being favourites

#mythBusted
 
If i had to back an outsider to get into the 8 from here it would be GWS at $5 but only looks a marginal edge and I don't expect they'd actually make it - might as well just back them to beat the Dees this week at virtually the same price if you wanted to play that market.
 

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