AFL AFL Futures 2022

[freo_leo29]

Surely the Cats (and Jezza) look after Jezza next week to help him get the Coleman. Taking on the Eagles at KP with top spot already sewn up and not much else to play for while the Blues take on the Pies

Giants did it for him when he won it that year

I had him at $18 that pre season and he missed a couple towards the backend, thought it was blown but then he played the last couple, needed 7 in the final and they handed everything off to him, had it by 3 quarter time iirc

 

[NonPhixion]

Lynch $101 coleman - PB

Why not ? looks like kicking another 3-4 here.

 

[Robo87]

Lynch $101 coleman - PB

Why not ? looks like kicking another 3-4 here.

26s everywhere , that got smashed real quick.
edit: 15s.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Collingwood still 12s to win the whole thing, 5s to make the grand final.

Somebody talk me out of loading up.

At least a 50/50 chance to beat Carlton and finish top 4.

Once a team finishes top 4, anything can happen.

The Pies have already beaten Melbourne twice this season.

They lost to Geelong by two goals back in Rd 3, Brisbane by one goal in Rd 5, and to Sydney recently by 27 points.

Obviously shouldn't be flag favourites but 12s for the flag and 5s for the GF seem like overs to me.

This isn't necessarily high-tech analytical punting but there's also the Buckley factor.

It would be sooooo Buckley to get the ass and then watch his team win the flag the very next season.

I might hold off to see how the injuries to the Blues and Pies look closer to gameday but I'm tempted to go Oraz style on these bets.

 

[NYRB]

Collingwood still 12s to win the whole thing, 5s to make the grand final.

Somebody talk me out of loading up.

At least a 50/50 chance to beat Carlton and finish top 4.

They've already beaten Melbourne twice this season.

They lost to Geelong by two goals back in round 3, and to Sydney recently by 27 points.

Obviously shouldn't be flag favourites but 12s for the flag and 5s for the GF seem like overs to me.

This isn't necessarily high-tech analytical punting but there's also the Buckley factor.

It would be sooooo Buckley to get the ass and then watch his team win the flag the very next season.

I might hold off to see how the injuries to the Blues and Pies look closer to gameday but I'm tempted to go Oraz style on these bets.

I think Collingwood playing Geelong at the MCG in a final is actually a slight advantage to the Pies.

Im taking a bit of Collingwood and Brisbane to win the flag at double digit odds this week. (around $11 on Smarkets Betting Exchange for Brisbane and $12.50 on Collingwood as I speak)

 

[Jugada]

I think Collingwood playing Geelong at the MCG in a final is actually a slight advantage to the Pies.

Get off the sauce and go to bed NYRB. You're ****ing plastered

 

[iluvparis]

Collingwood still 12s to win the whole thing, 5s to make the grand final.

Somebody talk me out of loading up.

At least a 50/50 chance to beat Carlton and finish top 4.

Once a team finishes top 4, anything can happen.

The Pies have already beaten Melbourne twice this season.

They lost to Geelong by two goals back in Rd 3, Brisbane by one goal in Rd 5, and to Sydney recently by 27 points.

Obviously shouldn't be flag favourites but 12s for the flag and 5s for the GF seem like overs to me.

This isn't necessarily high-tech analytical punting but there's also the Buckley factor.

It would be sooooo Buckley to get the ass and then watch his team win the flag the very next season.

I might hold off to see how the injuries to the Blues and Pies look closer to gameday but I'm tempted to go Oraz style on these bets.

Like when Essendon scraped into the 8 a few years ago the Pies have luckboxed themselves to a top 4 spot with a redic amount of close wins. The % shows where they really are at. The chance of them beating two top 4 sides within 3 weeks to make a grand final would be pretty remote I'd imagine.

 

[X_box_X]

Betfair has Curnow at $1.15 to win the Coleman Medal.

Clearly good value. He is paying $1.05 elsewhere.

 

[mozz23]

Betfair has Curnow at $1.15 to win the Coleman Medal.

Clearly good value. He is paying $1.05 elsewhere.

i was quick enough to get $1000 on at $1.35 after hearing cameron won't be playing. is it worth hedging on lynch and hawkins?

 

[X_box_X]

i was quick enough to get $1000 on at $1.35 after hearing cameron won't be playing. is it worth hedging on lynch and hawkins?

I did similar.

I am going to be hedging but I am not prepared to back (lay) unders in order to achieve that. I have a lay bet in the queue at $1.11 on BF which I expect to be matched. I believe odds of about $1.11 is a true price of what Curnow's odds should be.

The Betfair market at the moment still suggests Cameron is an outside chance to play. I think that's why you can still get an attractive price on Curnow.

If Cameron isn't named on Thursday, then the market on BF will begin to react to that.

Basically if you are confident Cameron won't play, you should be taking Curnow at $1.15. if you have some doubt as to whether Cameron misses, then you shouldn't take the $1.15.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Like when Essendon scraped into the 8 a few years ago the Pies have luckboxed themselves to a top 4 spot with a redic amount of close wins. The % shows where they really are at. The chance of them beating two top 4 sides within 3 weeks to make a grand final would be pretty remote I'd imagine.

So you're saying it's going to be a painful repeat of 2002

 

[Jcpdragonx]

People been posting about Moneyballs AA Odds in the main board thread. Seems a few out of wack. Dont think these can be multi'd.

Petracca $1.15 (was $1.25)
Miller $1.30 (was $2)
Sicily $2
Rozee $3.50 (was $21)
Dawson $17 (was $34)

Petracca will be in, (=3rd AFLCA). Only issue is fwd line is stacked so he probably gets a midfield/bench spot instead of the usual HF. Touk is in the box seat for the AFLCA award with North this week, been immense in the back half of the year.

Sicily is in every team in the main board AA thread. Only defender in the top 20 of the coaches votes. $2 is generous, loaded up on this one. Can be named 3rd tall or KPD.

Rozee =5th with Cripps in the coaches votes, gets to play Adelaide this week. Old mate Kornes is on the panel this year. Still a bit iffy if he gets in but think hes a reasonable shot, Was much better when the odds were stupid last week.

Dawson was $34 this morning, put a small amount on this. Statistically he stacks up to everyone in contention, arguably the most well rounded of the competiton - Stewart, Dale, Saad, Doch, Sinclair, D.Rioli. 3 of these should get named. Dawson #1 of this lot for Metres gained, Pressure acts, contested marks, goals, Rebound 50s.

Sinclair would be my only lock down back. Stewart has missed 5 games and been tagged out the last two, but still a decent chance. Doch and Saad are tough competition (Doch gets a lot of junk possessions & Saad is no match for Dawson when you put their stats side by side), while Dale probably just falls short. Rioli shouldnt be a threat. Overall I don't think Dawson gets in but he would be in my team. Laird may get in and selectors may not want to include two Crows.

 

[NonPhixion]

People been posting about Moneyballs AA Odds in the main board thread. Seems a few out of wack. Dont think these can be multi'd.

Petracca $1.15 (was $1.25)
Miller $1.30 (was $2)
Sicily $2
Rozee $3.50 (was $21)
Dawson $17 (was $34)

Petracca will be in, (=3rd AFLCA). Only issue is fwd line is stacked so he probably gets a midfield/bench spot instead of the usual HF. Touk is in the box seat for the AFLCA award with North this week, been immense in the back half of the year.

Sicily is in every team in the main board AA thread. Only defender in the top 20 of the coaches votes. $2 is generous, loaded up on this one. Can be named 3rd tall or KPD.

Rozee =5th with Cripps in the coaches votes, gets to play Adelaide this week. Old mate Kornes is on the panel this year. Still a bit iffy if he gets in but think hes a reasonable shot, Was much better when the odds were stupid last week.

Dawson was $34 this morning, put a small amount on this. Statistically he stacks up to everyone in contention, arguably the most well rounded of the competiton - Stewart, Dale, Saad, Doch, Sinclair, D.Rioli. 3 of these should get named. Dawson #1 of this lot for Metres gained, Pressure acts, contested marks, goals, Rebound 50s.

Sinclair would be my only lock down back. Stewart has missed 5 games and been tagged out the last two, but still a decent chance. Doch and Saad are tough competition, while Dale probably just falls short. Rioli shouldnt be a threat. Overall I don't think Dawson gets in but he would be in my team. Laird may get in and selectors may not want to include two Crows.

got on a couple of these. Wow Miller was really $2 ? seen it at $1.30 and thought that was even a gift.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

got on a couple of these. Wow Miller was really $2 ? seen it at $1.30 and thought that was even a gift.

Come into $1.22 now. Still value lol

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

People been posting about Moneyballs AA Odds in the main board thread. Seems a few out of wack. Dont think these can be multi'd.

Petracca $1.15 (was $1.25)
Miller $1.30 (was $2)
Sicily $2
Rozee $3.50 (was $21)
Dawson $17 (was $34)

Petracca will be in, (=3rd AFLCA). Only issue is fwd line is stacked so he probably gets a midfield/bench spot instead of the usual HF. Touk is in the box seat for the AFLCA award with North this week, been immense in the back half of the year.

Sicily is in every team in the main board AA thread. Only defender in the top 20 of the coaches votes. $2 is generous, loaded up on this one. Can be named 3rd tall or KPD.

Rozee =5th with Cripps in the coaches votes, gets to play Adelaide this week. Old mate Kornes is on the panel this year. Still a bit iffy if he gets in but think hes a reasonable shot, Was much better when the odds were stupid last week.

Dawson was $34 this morning, put a small amount on this. Statistically he stacks up to everyone in contention, arguably the most well rounded of the competiton - Stewart, Dale, Saad, Doch, Sinclair, D.Rioli. 3 of these should get named. Dawson #1 of this lot for Metres gained, Pressure acts, contested marks, goals, Rebound 50s.

Sinclair would be my only lock down back. Stewart has missed 5 games and been tagged out the last two, but still a decent chance. Doch and Saad are tough competition (Doch gets a lot of junk possessions & Saad is no match for Dawson when you put their stats side by side), while Dale probably just falls short. Rioli shouldnt be a threat. Overall I don't think Dawson gets in but he would be in my team. Laird may get in and selectors may not want to include two Crows.

Jordan Dawson? Give us a spell.

What’s Redmans odds?

Docherty should be up there too if not mentioned already.

 

[TBellicious]

Fwiw - huge game on Friday night this week. Winner will play Sydney in a QF and ultimately mean they are on the better side of the draw in finals and guarantee a home PF. Whoever wins that QF will pretty much automatically be in a Granny

 

[X_box_X]

Fwiw - huge game on Friday night this week. Winner will play Sydney in a QF and ultimately mean they are on the better side of the draw in finals and guarantee a home PF. Whoever wins that QF will pretty much automatically be in a Granny

Yeah, pretty much automatically.

I'm hearing their prelim final opponent won't even turn up.

Foregone conclusion. Expect the winner of Semi Final 2 will apply to the AFL to forfeit their prelim final to escape the inevitable result of a defeat.

 

[dontlimitme]

DEES TO WALK IN THE FLAG JUST LIKE LAST YEAR

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah, pretty much automatically.

I'm hearing their prelim final opponent won't even turn up.

Foregone conclusion. Expect the winner of Semi Final 2 will apply to the AFL to forfeit their prelim final to escape the inevitable result of a defeat.

To be fair that happens 8-9 years out of 10 anyway

 

[Macca180]

DEES TO WALK IN THE FLAG JUST LIKE LAST YEAR

Agree if they beat us Friday. If they finish second can see Geelong v Melbourne granny.

If they lose Friday they likely have to go through Richmond, Sydney or lions away then Geelong... not easy.

Friday night is a final.

 

[X_box_X]

To be fair that happens 8-9 years out of 10 anyway

Except for when Brisbane play cause they are notorious chokers. Port also.

In fact, you have to go back to 2017 to find the last time both favourites won their Prelim... so yeah, it happens almost every year like you said.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Jordan Dawson? Give us a spell.

What’s Redmans odds?

Docherty should be up there too if not mentioned already.

Could just say you don’t watch football instead of posting this crap. Redman is 0% chance, had a good 6 weeks.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Could just say you don’t watch football instead of posting this crap. Redman is 0% chance, had a good 6 weeks.

Dawson won’t make it either.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah, pretty much automatically.

I'm hearing their prelim final opponent won't even turn up.

Port had the same mentality in their past two home prelim finals, family, friends, supporters and staff were more worried about getting flights and accommodation to Brisbane in 2020 and Perth in 2021 for the Grand Finals, in both weeks leading up to the Prelim.

 

[Angus Young]

Might grab some Geelong at 2.80

Wont see this price again for a while.

Yeah that´s the best value you will get for the Cats unless they lose the first final, which I doubt.