AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[BringBackTorps]

SEN Melb. Radio G. Whateley program 3.3.21

Whateley interviews J. Halloran, a sports' journalist (who has previously won the very prestigious award for journalism, the Walkley Award) who is doing a six-part podcast series "The Fall Of Rugby Union in Australia".

Halloran said

"Rugby clubs are dying, in the suburbs & the bush" etc.

It has been noteable that in many middle class to affluent areas in Qld., NSW, & ACT, where RU was once strong, it has had a collapse in recent years in its GR male contact RU nos., & general fan support; & AF has been the main beneficiary of this severe decline, as GR AF is growing very strongly in those areas.

Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

Can be done if they pick the right location. Not sure about the groundsman, but he can always be sacked and replaced by someone more pleasant.They already did that before the start of last season (sack the Australian Football hating former groundsman) - that's why the GABBA playing surface was...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[BringBackTorps]

Courier Mail's T. Meyn reports 24.3.21 that Gold Coast Titans co. owner, D. Kelly, has had major losses backing the privately owned Titans. He "has in total pledged $35m to ensure the club's long term survival in a challenging market". Kelly said " I have lost a lot of money on the Titans".

Meyn also said (as have other NRL officials & MSM RL experts) that Brisbane 2 in the NRL is being justified, partially, by its expectation that it "...will help grow participation in the game from GR level".

Kelly also said

"The women's game [NRLW] is not financial at the moment, & a lot of the [NRL] Clubs wanted to pull out of it".


Gold Coast Bulletin reports 24.3.21 that, re GR AF club nos. in 2021 "The AFL is on track to hit record participation numbers in Qld.".

Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

Usually when people with a soccer background try to write about the AFL, especially if they're from a Northern state, invariably they talk it down a bit and talk up how soccer is the sleeping giant waiting to explode because of participation, the world game, international investment, etc, etc...

www.bigfooty.com

(Courier Mail article is open. Gold Coast Bulletin article is behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post her please?)

 

[Tasmanian saint]

As if the players knew the clubs salary cap position. They just work their arzes off to play & win.

Why would they say sorry? They'd be disappointed/upset. Thats about it.

Not sure those Melbourne players were totally innocent party’s Inglis and a number of there star players were given expensive cars,boats,caravans all kinds of things as well as cash I think they would have had a little bit of an idea what was going on

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. On 23.3.21, AFLQ CEO T. Squires said that, despite a much covid-interrupted GR season in Qld. last year, "...there was no sign of the game slowing down, with a 15% registration increase (club & auskick) on the Gold Coast already".
(15% increase in 1 year is a major increase. 2020 was also a record; & start of the 2021 season is still 3 weeks away!).

Suns stars 'drafted' to local clubs as Gold Coast grows its own

Gold Coast players have been aligned to community clubs as part of an initiative to boost community football in the region

www.afl.com.au

2. Queensland has had a huge female AF boom for c. 10 years- 42% of all regd. AF "participants" in Qld. are female, the highest % in Aust.

This Inner Sanctum article, 23.1.21, provides a good succinct chronology of the female AF boom, all over Australia, since 2016.



(Click on "TheInnersanctum.com.au", in blue writing, at the top of the redddit article, to open it).

The AFL, like all sporting organisations in Aust., includes community AF sessions Gala Days, short term & one-of AF programs etc. in its total figures- these have very little significance.
The important figures are regd. club & school comp. players, & Club Auskick nos. (but even for after school Auskick nos. in NSW, Qld, & ACT, parents have to pay for their kids to do Auskick).

Many of the public Reddit Comments, following the article, on the importance of the AFLW, are also prescient.

 

[BringBackTorps]

This is Part 2 of the very lengthy & detailed 3-Part Series on "The Development Of Women's Footy in Queensland".
Amazingly, until 2017, Qld. had more regd. female players than Vic.- & in 2021, Qld. is only second to Vic. in Aust. for regd. females.

42% of all regd. AF players in Qld. are females- the highest ratio in Aust.

K. Fenwick & G. Bastiani have done an excellent job in this series- but, a warning, it's a long (but worthy) read.

No more backward steps | Siren | Queensland Footy

The development of women’s footy in Queensland: Part Two. The beginnings of a Queensland women's state league and talent pathways.

sirensport.com.au

For Part 1, see my post #242, 18.11.20

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. "The NRL Economist" Podcast 10.6.20

Roy Masters, from the SMH, tells host R. Haidar that the NRL should not have negotiated an 8 year extension with Foxtel on 27.5.20
The NRL was under extreme financial pressure then, thus it got a poor new Rights' deal with Foxtel; & also got a big reduction (c. $119m less) in Nine's renewal for 2020-2022

2. SMH R. Masters 2.3.21

Masters wrote in the SMH that NRL's gap with the AFL in the Rights has widened since 28.5.20- to the AFL's favour.


Details of both these issues are in this link

Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

Can be done if they pick the right location. Not sure about the groundsman, but he can always be sacked and replaced by someone more pleasant.They already did that before the start of last season (sack the Australian Football hating former groundsman) - that's why the GABBA playing surface was...

www.bigfooty.com

Both these developments strengthen the AFL's financial advantages over the NRL- thus making it easier for the AFL to expand into Qld., NSW, & ACT

 

[GC2015]

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

It seems the NRL are legitimately concerned about the AFL potentially taking over in Queensland and appear to be committed to introducing two new QLD-based franchises in the next six years. One in 2023 and the other in 2027. This will take the total number of Queensland teams in the NRL to five, which is a serious increase in market representation.

As of last financial year, Brisbane had the highest growth rate of all capital cities in Australia (1.9%) so it's not surprising to see the NRL desperately trying to hold onto/grow their dominance in a quickly expanding state. Regional parts of Queensland are growing fast as well with the Gold Coast's annual growth rate sitting around 1.8%, Sunshine Coast around 1.7% and Townsville in the 1.7% range as well.

The turf war is most definitely on in Queensland and anyone who thinks the AFL are going to back away when their main competitor is seriously stepping things up in this state is absolutely kidding themselves. You can forget about these ridiculous suggestions that the Suns should fold and seriously start discussing whether the AFL should introduce a third team in Queensland over the next 5-10 years to keep up.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

It seems the NRL are legitimately concerned about the AFL potentially taking over in Queensland and appear to be committed to introducing two new QLD-based franchises in the next six years. One in 2023 and the other in 2027. This will take the total number of Queensland teams in the NRL to five, which is a serious increase in market representation.

Where's the second one going to be?

 

[GC2015]

Where's the second one going to be?

They haven't commented on that yet but you'd have to think another team in or around Brisbane would be a fantastic chance to get the green light. They've made it clear that they are very interested in the Moreton Bay (Redcliffe) and Ipswich regions. I wouldn't be surprised to see Redcliffe let in first in 2023 to tap into the northern Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast markets. They're probably looking at a market of around 1-1.5 million people in those three areas right now and the Sunshine Coast (350k+ - 9th largest city in Australia) is growing at a fast rate which should see the city overtake Canberra in terms of population in the next decade or two. Then you've got the Ipswich bid that I think would be better suited to enter the NRL in 2027 as the western corridor regions of west Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba and parts of Logan continue to grow. They're probably looking at a market of around 1 million people in the western corridor right now but it will likely be in the 1.3-1.5 million range by 2027 and it's a hardcore rugby league area so it'll be very difficult to reject their bid by that stage.

The NRL will then have all four major areas of South East Queensland covered with Central (Broncos), South (Titans), West (Ipswich) and North (Redcliffe) all having teams. It will also fall in line with their plans to create a two-conference competition with five teams in Queensland, one team in Melbourne, one team in New Zealand, one team in Newcastle and one team in Canberra making up one conference, with the nine Sydney teams making up the other conference.

Wayne Bennett has also been linked to the new Brisbane franchise to become the head coach for their inaugural 2023 season. So the sporting market in South East Queensland is about to become very crowded which the AFL will be well aware of and will have their own plans to combat the NRL's recent announcements.

 

[Cmarsh]

They haven't commented on that yet but you'd have to think another team in or around Brisbane would be a fantastic chance to get the green light. They've made it clear that they are very interested in the Moreton Bay (Redcliffe) and Ipswich regions. I wouldn't be surprised to see Redcliffe let in first in 2023 to tap into the northern Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast markets. They're probably looking at a market of around 1-1.5 million people in those three areas right now and the Sunshine Coast (350k+ - 9th largest city in Australia) is growing at a fast rate which should see the city overtake Canberra in terms of population in the next decade or two. Then you've got the Ipswich bid that I think would be better suited to enter the NRL in 2027 as the western corridor regions of west Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba and parts of Logan continue to grow. They're probably looking at a market of around 1 million people in the western corridor right now but it will likely be in the 1.3-1.5 million range by 2027 and it's a hardcore rugby league area so it'll be very difficult to reject their bid by that stage.

The NRL will then have all four major areas of South East Queensland covered with Central (Broncos), South (Titans), West (Ipswich) and North (Redcliffe) all having teams. It will also fall in line with their plans to create a two-conference competition with five teams in Queensland, one team in Melbourne, one team in New Zealand, one team in Newcastle and one team in Canberra making up one conference, with the nine Sydney teams making up the other conference.

Wayne Bennett has also been linked to the new Brisbane franchise to become the head coach for their inaugural 2023 season. So the sporting market in South East Queensland is about to become very crowded which the AFL will be well aware of and will have their own plans to combat the NRL's recent announcements.

So if the NRL have plans to cover all 4 major areas of SE QLD then where does the AFL target?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

They haven't commented on that yet but you'd have to think another team in or around Brisbane would be a fantastic chance to get the green light. They've made it clear that they are very interested in the Moreton Bay (Redcliffe) and Ipswich regions. I wouldn't be surprised to see Redcliffe let in first in 2023 to tap into the northern Brisbane, Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast markets. They're probably looking at a market of around 1-1.5 million people in those three areas right now and the Sunshine Coast (350k+ - 9th largest city in Australia) is growing at a fast rate which should see the city overtake Canberra in terms of population in the next decade or two. Then you've got the Ipswich bid that I think would be better suited to enter the NRL in 2027 as the western corridor regions of west Brisbane, Ipswich, Toowoomba and parts of Logan continue to grow. They're probably looking at a market of around 1 million people in the western corridor right now but it will likely be in the 1.3-1.5 million range by 2027 and it's a hardcore rugby league area so it'll be very difficult to reject their bid by that stage.

The NRL will then have all four major areas of South East Queensland covered with Central (Broncos), South (Titans), West (Ipswich) and North (Redcliffe) all having teams.

That sounds very logical. Too logical for the NRLs usual standards. If V'landys does do this, then I'll admit he does actually have some smarts to back up his Trumpian levels of blustering. You'd think the smarter move would be to introduce the Ipswich team first though since they'd be sharing Suncorp with the Broncos and by the sounds of it, Redcliffe wouldn't be.

 

[slackboy72]

As if the players knew the clubs salary cap position. They just work their arzes off to play & win.

Why would they say sorry? They'd be disappointed/upset. Thats about it.

You do know many of them signed second contracts? One real contract and a lower valued one for the NRL.
Only Billy Slater refused to sign a second contract.
On top of that none of them cooperated with investigators. And the NRL took no meaningful action against them.
On top of that there is their grubby tactics (choke holds, chicken wings, etc.) and no contrition for breaking Alex McKinnons neck. NRL fans are right for calling them the purple scum.

 

[JackFlash]

It's only going to get better for the AFL as Victorians head North... Victoria did not gain people from any state or territory and lost most to Queensland!

 

[madmug]

It's only going to get better for the AFL as Victorians head North... Victoria did not gain people from any state or territory and lost most to Queensland!

More people at the footy in Qld & NSW then?

 

[GC2015]

That sounds very logical. Too logical for the NRLs usual standards. If V'landys does do this, then I'll admit he does actually have some smarts to back up his Trumpian levels of blustering. You'd think the smarter move would be to introduce the Ipswich team first though since they'd be sharing Suncorp with the Broncos and by the sounds of it, Redcliffe wouldn't be.

Possibly. I think they're probably torn between rewarding a hardcore rugby league area in the western corridor and creating direct competition to the growing number of people on the Sunshine Coast who are taking up Aussie rules. The NRL definitely want at least one game at Suncorp every week and if that's only possible through the Ipswich bid then obviously they will get the nod. V'landys specifically mentioned the Lions move to Springfield in Ipswich as an attack on rugby league heartland so they can definitely justify starting at team there by stating they are fighting back against the AFL's infiltration.

It's only going to get better for the AFL as Victorians head North... Victoria did not gain people from any state or territory and lost most to Queensland!

It's true. A high percentage of the 53k people who moved to Queensland in the second half of 2020 were from Victoria and New South Wales. For context, 52k was the largest amount of arrivals of any Australian state in the second half of 2020 and not far off double the amount of people who moved to Victoria (31k) in that period. It was a net gain of 17k people for Queensland in the second half of 2020 if anyone is wondering. New South Wales had a net population loss of 9.4k and Victoria had a net population loss of 10.3k in the second half of 2020.

I don't have the second half of 2020 stats for this but I can tell you 4.6k of the people that left New South Wales relocated to Queensland and 4.3k of the Victorians that left their state ended up in Queensland in the last quarter of 2020. So it's probably fair to assume both NSW and Victoria lost 10k+ people to Queensland in the second half of 2020. There was clearly a mass migration to Queensland from people in NSW & Victoria last year and I think I heard on the news that the total number of people that moved to Queensland in 2020 was just over 80k but don't quote me on that. In terms of cities, Brisbane had a net gain of 4.7k in the last quarter of 2020 and around 5.3k moved to 'regional' parts of Queensland (mostly the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast).

The percentages of migration probably wouldn't be as high in the first half of 2021 but you're probably looking at between 15-20k more expat Victorians living in Queensland when compared to this time last year. It's changing the demographics and sporting interests up here and is probably having a bigger impact in the regional cities like the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast than it is in Brisbane due to the lower population bases. These aren't the actual number, I'm just using this as an example to make a point but 20k equates to around 3.5% of the Gold Coast population and 5.7% of the Sunshine Coast population whereas 20k in Brisbane would only make up 0.8% of their population. So the Victorians and New South Welshmen moving to the larger regional cities like the GC and SC are going to have a much bigger impact than they will in Brisbane. That's not to say they can't make a difference in Brisbane too, though.

I don't have the stats on this but obviously people from SA, WA, NT, Tasmania (and to a lesser degree ACT) are also contributing to the 52k people who moved to Queensland in the second half of 2020 and those states are definitely more Aussie rules inclined than a state like NSW. So I think it's fair to assume Queensland gained more AFL fans in 2020 than it did NRL fans. The likely approval of our 2032 Olympic bid in south east Queensland is also going to drastically improve infrastructure and encourage more southerners to move here so the SEQ market is going to become an absolute juggernaut over the next 10 years and the NRL have recognised this early by committing to at least one extra team here and potentially two in the next six years. They are definitely not taking a backward step in the fast growing market that is south east Queensland.

Just so everyone understands what these numbers actually translate to, AFL Queensland saw a participation increase of 15% across the state in 2020 and I know locally on the Gold Coast we've had increases in participation of 30% year on year in both 2020 and 2021. Compare that to the participation increase of 10% on the Gold Coast in 2019 and you start to understand how much of a difference this mass migration is making. It's now reported that over 300,000 people in Queensland play Australian rules football and that number was only 100,000 back in 2010 before the Suns entered the competition. Also, both the Lions and Suns registered all time membership records in 2020 & QLD now has the second highest number of female participation numbers in all Australian states (just over 100k). A lot has changed in the last decade!

The numbers certainly suggest all sporting codes should be taking the south east Queensland market very seriously and I'm sure the AFL are already putting plans together to take advantage of the massive growth here.

 

[Freomaniac]

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

It seems the NRL are legitimately concerned about the AFL potentially taking over in Queensland and appear to be committed to introducing two new QLD-based franchises in the next six years. One in 2023 and the other in 2027. This will take the total number of Queensland teams in the NRL to five, which is a serious increase in market representation.

As of last financial year, Brisbane had the highest growth rate of all capital cities in Australia (1.9%) so it's not surprising to see the NRL desperately trying to hold onto/grow their dominance in a quickly expanding state. Regional parts of Queensland are growing fast as well with the Gold Coast's annual growth rate sitting around 1.8%, Sunshine Coast around 1.7% and Townsville in the 1.7% range as well.

The turf war is most definitely on in Queensland and anyone who thinks the AFL are going to back away when their main competitor is seriously stepping things up in this state is absolutely kidding themselves. You can forget about these ridiculous suggestions that the Suns should fold and seriously start discussing whether the AFL should introduce a third team in Queensland over the next 5-10 years to keep up.

I was about to mention this...

I saw that in yesterday's Adelaide advertiser.

Saying that.... If NRL does this, wonder where the 4th and 5th Queensland side would come from?

Personally they should have a side in Adelaide and Perth but that's my opinion.

Saying that, there's 5 million in Queensland. So that means 5 million divided by 5 teams is 1 million on average per club

 

[GC2015]

I was about to mention this...

I saw that in yesterday's Adelaide advertiser.

Saying that.... If NRL does this, wonder where the 4th and 5th Queensland side would come from?

Personally they should have a side in Adelaide and Perth but that's my opinion.

Saying that, there's 5 million in Queensland. So that means 5 million divided by 5 teams is 1 million on average per club

They've already stated the 4th team will definitely be in Brisbane and they weren't specific as to where the fifth Queensland team will be based but another one in south east Queensland makes a lot of sense when you look at the growth projections. My guess would be Ipswich and Redcliffe.

I think the NRL collected a lot of valuable data from their 2019/20 State of Origin games in Adelaide and Perth. They must have realised that there isn't long term viability for them in those markets because they've absolutely turned their attention to Queensland this year. SA & WA combined only make up 4.4 million whereas Queensland currently has a population base of 5.2 million and is growing much quicker. QLD also happens to be rugby league inclined for the most part so it's an obvious growth area for the NRL.

We also have a pending 2032 Olympic bid that is likely to be approved over the next 24 months and is going to see lots of money being thrown around for sports teams/venues e.g. the Gabba will be upgraded to become a 50k Olympic main stadium venue and Queensland Cricket/the Lions will obviously be the big beneficiaries of that investment.

 

[JackFlash]

More people at the footy in Qld & NSW then?

Eventually yes, Victoria has only just begun a mass exodus and QLD is the place they want to go despite the madness of their Premier!

 

[Freomaniac]

Eventually yes, Victoria has only just begun a mass exodus and QLD is the place they want to go despite the madness of their Premier!

It would be crazy to say this to you.... As a victorian, you lot dont like Dictator Dan Andrews. WA doesnt like Mad Dog Mark McGowan either.

would you trade dictator dan for Mad dog mark? lol

 

[GC2015]

Eventually yes, Victoria has only just begun a mass exodus and QLD is the place they want to go despite the madness of their Premier!

It would be crazy to say this to you.... As a victorian, you lot dont like Dictator Dan Andrews. WA doesnt like Mad Dog Mark McGowan either.

would you trade dictator dan for Mad dog mark? lol

It's all good fellas. Just join the Palaszczuk Party up north

 

[madmug]

Eventually yes, Victoria has only just begun a mass exodus and QLD is the place they want to go despite the madness of their Premier!

Madness? Which Polly isn't a bit mad!

 

[NoobPie]

It would be crazy to say this to you.... As a victorian, you lot dont like Dictator Dan Andrews. WA doesnt like Mad Dog Mark McGowan either.

would you trade dictator dan for Mad dog mark? lol

Dan Andrews is enormously popular Victoria and Mark McGowan's popularity in WA is unprecedented

 

[raskolnikov]

As a Central Queenslander I think that whoever out of the AFL and the NRL puts a team in CQ is going to get a huge advantage over the other. CQ covers a huge untapped market in Queensland: Bundaberg, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Mackay. CQ is desperate for a professional team and will jump on whichever puts one here first.

 

[Freomaniac]

As a Central Queenslander I think that whoever out of the AFL and the NRL puts a team in CQ is going to get a huge advantage over the other. CQ covers a huge untapped market in Queensland: Bundaberg, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Mackay. CQ is desperate for a professional team and will jump on whichever puts one here first.

random question, how many people live in that central queensland area?

 

[NoobPie]

As a Central Queenslander I think that whoever out of the AFL and the NRL puts a team in CQ is going to get a huge advantage over the other. CQ covers a huge untapped market in Queensland: Bundaberg, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Mackay. CQ is desperate for a professional team and will jump on whichever puts one here first.

I would have thought Bundaberg, Gladstone, Rockhampton would be some of the weakest Australian football places in the country?

Mackay is surely as much north as it is central anyway......it's also doubtful that if you plonk a team in one of those cities and call it CQ you would attract supporters of much value in the other cities