AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
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The only thing lacking for the AFL is eyes on the tele. In every other facet, they're doing great.
Regularly this year when I checked the NRL on the main channel in Brisbane was barely beating non Lions AFL matches on 7 mate 3 to 1 (which as has been demonstrated to be equivalent to a lower ratio when you factor the game goes for an hour longer).

Room for growth, sure, but hardly doing poorly.
 

NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
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What are you talking about? Of course this is going to matter for the AFL. Putting the TV ratings to the side for a minute, there is now a new professional sports franchise based in an area the AFL/Lions have targeted over the last 10-20 years and they are going to spend $2 million every year on winning over the local kids/increasing junior rugby league participation rates. That's essentially the equivalent of an AFL northern academy so how are the Lions expected to win over a talented Sunshine Coast junior like Eric Hipwood when all his friends are playing rugby league and telling him to quit 'gAyFL' and join them in the Dolphins academy? This is what happens in Sydney with talented juniors who play our game like Tom Trbojevic. He was a standout in the Sydney Swans academy but the peer pressure and pull towards rugby league was too great. He's now arguably the best player in their sport but could have become an AFL player under different conditions.

The NRL has segmented the south east Queensland market into four significant areas - Brisbane city, Gold Coast, the northern corridor and the western corridor. They believe the northern corridor will hit 1.1 million people in 2031, the Gold Coast is also expected to hit around the 1 million person mark by then and the western corridor should be a little under 1 million. Brisbane city/south Brisbane will be in the 1.5-2 million person mark by then.
Mate, the NRL haven'e segmented anything. They've introduced the team that News ltd let them bring in.

Also, it's going to take decades for the majority of the likes of Tom Trbojevic to choose the AFL in NSW and QLD. Certainly seems a lot more of the talented ones are going to the AFL over the last decade or so.
 

PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
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What I would like to see from an NRL standpoint is to actually stop trying to prop up what it has and actually go looking for AFL talent. In a team that has a dynamic playmaker - look at the roosters as a prime example: they have luke keary who is fantastic with ball in hand, has a great running and passing game. All they need next to him is a guy like Drew Hutchison who did a manful job this season to take pressure off him with his kicks, tackle reasonably and be a link man to the outside backs.

You could find a dozen players languishing in the VFL who could do that role as well as or better than a role player like Hutchison - belt you out of your own end with a long kick, launch bombs etc. I’m amazed they haven’t tried it more
 

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Bjo187

Team Captain
Apr 30, 2020
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I don't think this new club will be successful at all. Way too long after the initial Club the broncos.
Look at the trouble that Fremantle and Port had for years and they were a legitimate alternative. Mind you the bar is a lot lower for NRL they would be content with 10k crowds.
 

GC2015

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May 27, 2013
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I don't think this new club will be successful at all. Way too long after the initial Club the broncos.
Look at the trouble that Fremantle and Port had for years and they were a legitimate alternative. Mind you the bar is a lot lower for NRL they would be content with 10k crowds.
People don't seem to understand that about half of Brisbane dislikes the Broncos. There is definitely huge potential for this team to win over a lot of rugby league fans in Brisbane, Moreton Bay and the Sunny Coast.
 

On the quiet

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Jul 15, 2021
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Confirmation from the NRL that Redcliffe is entering their competition in 2023.

The NRL stated this morning that part of the conditions laid out for the Dolphins to enter the NRL was a commitment to invest $2 million per year into participation and development pathways in their region. This is going to seriously shake things up in the Queensland turf war. If you look at where the majority of the Lions' academy picks have come from, you will notice the big ones have mostly come from the northern Brisbane/Moreton Bay/Sunshine Coast corridor that Redcliffe will be targeting from today onwards - Harris Andrews (Northern Brisbane), Eric Hipwood (Sunshine Coast), Tom Fullarton (Sunshine Coast), Jack Payne (Sunshine Coast), Conor McFadyen (Northern Brisbane). I just hope the AFL is ready to combat this by providing more support to the two Queensland teams.

Master coach Wayne Bennett will be announced as their inaugural coach soon and they are targeting some big names like Munster and Ponga. Redcliffe is a very wealthy club for anyone who doesn't know. The AFL can't afford to underestimate the effect this announcement is going to have on the Queensland sporting market going forward.
Geez I would like to be Munster or Ponga, Dolphins will pay overs to get a couple high profile players for 2023. Reckon Haas (young prop forward) from the Broncos would also be targeted with a huge long-term offer.

Talking of overs a Fox journalist 'John Ralph' reckon Suns will be that desperate to keep King they will likely offer a 3 or 4 years contract for a million per year.
 

Bjo187

Team Captain
Apr 30, 2020
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Really on reflection I think the AFL made an error by bringing in the two teams in 2 years. Not only did it ruin the draft for too long it also meant that attracting high-quality players to the new clubs was more difficult because they were both at pretty much the same time. They should have put full focus into making the clubs successful for a few years, getting the right coaches etc prior to bringing in another new team, that's more important than having a bye for a few years.
 

Seedsfan

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 10, 2013
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The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

With the Storm having their zone on the Sunshine Coast they will be producing enough talent for 5 clubs
 

NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
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The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

With the Storm having their zone on the Sunshine Coast they will be producing enough talent for 5 clubs

What does Redcliffe having 100M in assets have anything to do with the price of fish? Do you understand what a leagues club is?

And what has the Storm having their zone on the sunshine coast mean they will be producing talent for 5 clubs?

You're so confused
 

GC2015

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May 27, 2013
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2023 will be a big year for Queensland in both the NRL and AFL with the two best coaches of the modern era both taking up senior coaching roles in the sunshine state. Wayne Bennett to coach the Dolphins and Alastair Clarkson to coach the Suns.
 

weewilly

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The AFL with never overtake the NRL in Queensland. Redcliffe is a second tier club and has 100m in assets

With the Storm having their zone on the Sunshine Coast they will be producing enough talent for 5 clubs
I don't think the AFL wants or needs to take over from RL in QLD. It just needs to get a decent market share in a growing market to make it worthwhile!
 

GC2015

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May 27, 2013
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The AFL will never overtake the NRL in Queensland.
It depends on where you're talking about.

Brisbane's large population and strong preference towards rugby league essentially guarantees the state of Queensland (in general) will likely always be an RL state. However, Gold Coast and potentially even Cairns are ripe for the taking if the AFL get it right. The split on the GC sits around the 60/40 mark in favour of rugby league over Aussie rules and that's mainly due to the vast majority of migration coming from Sydney and Melbourne.

Although they are closer in proximity, comparing Brisbane's sporting preferences to Gold Coast's is akin to comparing Sydney with Wagga Wagga. Aussie rules has a far greater relative following in the Gold Coast/Riverina than it does in Brisbane/Sydney.
 

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Seedsfan

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What does Redcliffe having 100M in assets have anything to do with the price of fish? Do you understand what a leagues club is?

And what has the Storm having their zone on the sunshine coast mean they will be producing talent for 5 clubs?

You're so confused
It shows the strength of the game there. Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs
 

Gigantor

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It shows the strength of the game there. Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs
Given the representation of Pacific Islanders in the NRL (which is a fantastic thing to see), as along as immigration continued into the Sunshine State, they could probably have 10 NRL teams in Qld (from the perspective of finding playing talent).
 

Rob

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It shows the strength of the game there. Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs
To be fair, NRL players have to come from somewhere and outside NSW and Queensland the participation rate for rugby league is virtually zero. You could just as easily argue that so many players coming from those 2 states show how weak the game is elsewhere.
 

Seedsfan

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To be fair, NRL players have to come from somewhere and outside NSW and Queensland the participation rate for rugby league is virtually zero. You could just as easily argue that so many players coming from those 2 states show how weak the game is elsewhere.
What’s your point? If the discussion was the strength of Rugby league outside of Auckland NSW and Queensland then I would agree with you
 

Rob

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What’s your point? If the discussion was the strength of Rugby league outside of Auckland NSW and Queensland then I would agree with you
My point is that arguing Queensland has strong numbers because of high NRL player numbers doesn't necessarily add up, because outside of NSW it's not actually played much.
Where else could the NRL get its players, if not from NSW and Queensland? You could halve participation rates and there'd still be just as many NRL players from those states.
 

Seedsfan

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My point is that arguing Queensland has strong numbers because of high NRL player numbers doesn't necessarily add up, because outside of NSW it's not actually played much.
Where else could the NRL get its players, if not from NSW and Queensland? You could halve participation rates and there'd still be just as many NRL players from those states.
But we are discussing the NRL v AFL in Queensland not the rest of Australia
 

NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
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It shows the strength of the game there.

It doesn't do that at all. It would only do that if any of the actual accumulation of those assets was related to the actual football clubs activity itself. Someone pointed out earlier in this thread (or another thread) that Dolphins played a final this year (while they were bidding for an NRL licence!) in front of tumbleweeds.

So confused


Granted a NRL squad is only 2/3-3/4 the size of an AFL squad but there is absolutely no way known that Queensland would produce enough talent to support that amount of AFL clubs
What's your actual relevant point? They can fill as many NRL teams as the like but they only have to play against other NRL clubs

Obviously talent share isn't directly proportionate to participation share, but here are the participation rates among 9 to 17 year olds in Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast

....if that region is producing talent for 5 NRL teams than good luck maintaining interest in that league over the next few decades!



1634265959395.png
 

NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
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Just to drive home the above point, the following are the participation rates for 9 to 17 year olds for NSW, Vic, WA and SA

NSW

1634268543720.png


Victoria

1634268304724.png

WA

1634268249171.png



SA

1634268387025.png


So you are looking at 2 to 3 times the participants in the AFL heartlands compared to the RL equivalents as the AF rates continue to close in

So, while the AFL genuinely rivalling the NRL in those states may be decades away, that aint going to be because RL there is producing more players for the NRL than AF is for the AFL!
 

Seedsfan

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 10, 2013
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It doesn't do that at all. It would only do that if any of the actual accumulation of those assets was related to the actual football clubs activity itself. Someone pointed out earlier in this thread (or another thread) that Dolphins played a final this year (while they were bidding for an NRL licence!) in front of tumbleweeds.

So confused




What's your actual relevant point? They can fill as many NRL teams as the like but they only have to play against other NRL clubs

Obviously talent share isn't directly proportionate to participation share, but here are the participation rates among 9 to 17 year olds in Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast

....if that region is producing talent for 5 NRL teams than good luck maintaining interest in that league over the next few decades!



View attachment 1260965
Are you taking the piss? Seriously, one club having 100m does highlight the strength of the game. They are already a more sustainable business than the Suns and have not played one game at the top level

The suns would die with out the AFL pumping huge money in. You can post all the pictures you want to try and hammer home you point. Yet no link? You select an age and gender range to suit your argument.
 

Taylor

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Really on reflection I think the AFL made an error by bringing in the two teams in 2 years. Not only did it ruin the draft for too long it also meant that attracting high-quality players to the new clubs was more difficult because they were both at pretty much the same time. They should have put full focus into making the clubs successful for a few years, getting the right coaches etc prior to bringing in another new team, that's more important than having a bye for a few years.
Since GWS entered the competition in the 2011 draft (so excluding the players they were able to list outside the draft in Sheil, Treloar etc...):

GWS has taken 38 first round picks, 20 of them moved to another club. That's 52.6%
 

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