AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[JackFlash]

Madness? Which Polly isn't a bit mad!

Yes, true, but she might be madder than McClown in WA and that's saying something!

 

[1990crow]

Send North Melbourne North to Sunshine coast.

 

[Sherrinator]

As a Central Queenslander I think that whoever out of the AFL and the NRL puts a team in CQ is going to get a huge advantage over the other. CQ covers a huge untapped market in Queensland: Bundaberg, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Mackay. CQ is desperate for a professional team and will jump on whichever puts one here first.

Not one of those towns is large enough to support anything. They are also 200km apart. CQ is not on anyone’s radar and never will except grass roots poaching.

 

[raskolnikov]

Not one of those towns is large enough to support anything. They are also 200km apart. CQ is not on anyone’s radar and never will except grass roots poaching.

CQ has been close to securing an NRL license on several occasions and it is really only a matter of time.

I agree that an AFL team is unlikely. If the Gold Coast struggle to retain players then Central Queensland is even more likely to do so.

But if CQ is given an NRL license it's highly unlikely that AFL will ever become the more popular code in Queensland

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. This is the full link (re GC2015 post #384) of The Australian 12.5.21 article (which was behind a paywall)

"V'landys believes rugby league is under siege in Qld.".

V'landys said, re the big rise of GR AF in Qld.

"I will give credit to the AFL...Let's not mince words. The AFL are invading Qld, & that is brilliant management....I am up for the fight...We will come out fighting".

Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

we no longer talking about tennis. . If you say so. I was talking about participation and choices. People, when given the choice, then a substantial percentage of the population will play Australian Rules Football. And please, having a different opinion is not troll.. But mentioning...

www.bigfooty.com

2.

Just so everyone understands what these numbers actually translate to, AFL Queensland saw a participation increase of 15% across the state in 2020 and I know locally on the Gold Coast we've had increases in participation of 30% year on year in both 2020 and 2021. Compare that to the participation increase of 10% on the Gold Coast in 2019 and you start to understand how much of a difference this mass migration is making. It's now reported that over 300,000 [Mainly rubbery one-off community programs & one-off school Gala Days etc.] people in Queensland play Australian Rules Football, and that number was only 100,000 in 2010

Where did you obtain this information- & links appreciated please- "...on the Gold Coast we've had increases in participation of 30% year on year in both 2020 and 2021".
How much of this "30%...increase" is participation in:-

. Club comp. AF?

. school comp. AF?

. club Auskick?

. school Auskick (which is paid for by parents, in a lengthy program that starts just after 3.30 pm, when school finishes)?

 

[Roobs321]

I’d be surprised if Moreton Bay got a team. I’ve recently lived in Redcliffe, like a block away from where the Titans occasionally play, but the western regions of Ipswich, Logan and encompassing Toowoomba is far more sensible imo. Like the Giants and Bulldogs, or 3rd WA, it is a place you could easily grow a team, and also build a decent crosstown rivalry. Redcliffe would be a mistake imo, and should be maintained as a home away from home for Titans in Broncos territory. Needs to be a ‘western’ SEQ side that caters to Darling Downs as well like Giants with Canberra. An imminent Redcliffe team would be more about the A-League Roar than AFL, or even positioning opportunistically around the 2032 games.

 

[GC2015]

Where did you obtain this information- & links appreciated please "...on the Gold Coast we've had increases in participation of 30% year on year in both 2020 and 2021".

Channel Nine Gold Coast News on April 22, 2021. The report stated AusKick participation numbers on the Gold Coast were up 32%.

I’d be surprised if Moreton Bay got a team. I’ve recently lived in Redcliffe, like a block away from where the Titans occasionally play, but the western regions of Ipswich, Logan and encompassing Toowoomba is far more sensible imo. Like the Giants and Bulldogs, or 3rd WA, it is a place you could easily grow a team, and also build a decent crosstown rivalry. Redcliffe would be a mistake imo, and should be maintained as a home away from home for Titans in Broncos territory. Needs to be a ‘western’ SEQ side that caters to Darling Downs as well like Giants with Canberra. An imminent Redcliffe team would be more about the A-League Roar than AFL, or even positioning opportunistically around the 2032 games.

While I agree that the western corridor makes more sense for the 2023 entry, you may not be aware of the historical significance of the Redcliffe Dolphins in rugby league circles. Redcliffe are the most successful team in the top level Queensland rugby league competitions. A team based in Redcliffe would also be able to tap into the Sunshine Coast market which is the 9th largest city in Australia and is growing very quickly. There is certainly merit to awarding the league licence to Redcliffe but I think I'd go with the western corridor first. Either way, both probably end up in the NRL by 2026.

 

[Sherrinator]

CQ has been close to securing an NRL license on several occasions and it is really only a matter of time.

I agree that an AFL team is unlikely. If the Gold Coast struggle to retain players then Central Queensland is even more likely to do so.

But if CQ is given an NRL license it's highly unlikely that AFL will ever become the more popular code in Queensland

A CQ team robs supporters from NQ and Brisbane. They would literally get minuscule crowds, even for NRL. There isn’t 150k people in a 200k radius of Rockhampton or Mackay.

 

[Gigantor]

Meh, let the NRL have Central Queensland.
I doubt the commission will lose any sleep over that one.

 

[AFLQLD]

I think the NRL has moved through a few stages of realisation over the last couple of decades:

- Rugby League is the only thing that matters to Queenslanders. AFL is irrelevant.

- Rugby League is ‘heartland’ Queensland and AFL only attracts ex-southerners.

- Rugby League is by far the most popular football code in Queensland. AFL can share the scraps.

- Rugby League is holding its own against the southern invader - nothing to see here.

- we are concerned about the numbers but we will cool programs in place to boost participation and stop the growth of AFL. But everyone loves NRL in Queensland, don’t they?

And now - AFL is worrying us and we better do something. This is our turf and we are taking a stand (even if it stretches our talent pool and financial situation too far).

They really have to add another SEQ team soon. Population-wise it can be justified but very expensive and to be honest I don’t think they have the sort of cash or long term will that AFL has with GC and GWS. But it will happen.

But adding two more SEQ teams sounds like when there are franchises of any business too close together - it is more convenient for the loyal customer base but that base isn’t necessarily any bigger.

As for adding a Central Queensland team, it is a weird romantic notion they have, but I can’t see the demographics working out. Placing professional sporting teams is like choosing where to put an IKEA or Costco, not like opening a new KFC. Be very selective, be sure of the demand and sustainability, commit for a long time, go slowly and be very, very patient. I just can’t see that in CQ for at least 20 or 30 years.

NRL’s best bet would be to relocate a Sydney team to SEQ but I doubt they can make that happen without a fair bit of collateral damage to their brand. Even the AFL, a much stronger organisation, is wary of that rocky pathway, and wouldn’t move until it became a no-brainer.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Seriously can't see a 2nd Brisbane NRL club being sustainable.

The townsman are all in on the Broncos.
Who'd flip?

It's not like it's an Adelaide or Perth in the mid 90s where Adelaide/West Coast were selling out every week.
Brisbane only go at 60% capacity.

 

[AFLQLD]

Seriously can't see a 2nd Brisbane NRL club being sustainable.

The townsman are all in on the Broncos.
Who'd flip?

It's not like it's an Adelaide or Perth in the mid 90s where Adelaide/West Coast were selling out every week.
Brisbane only go at 60% capacity.

I think the NRL will fund it in the short term, 5 years or so, and hope for the best after that.

The difference for me between the NRL and AFL in Queensland is that AFL wants to win the next generation, NRL doesn’t look much further than winning the next TV contract.

It is why investment in SEQ will eventually pay off for the AFL - the generation that will be born in the next decade. Everything from Ozkick to AFLW to the QClash builds the culture. South-east Qld will be even more of a conurbation than it is now and a generation of kids will have grown up with the Lions and Suns as part of the background of their childhood in a big urban area. They will be young adults who played Ozkick as kids and will start having their own kids, and it is THAT generation, boys and girls, who will make the investment worthwhile. They will be ‘native’ AFL and Lions or Suns fans - AFL will be their first choice football code to play, first choice football code to follow, and already rusted on at birth to the Lions or Suns.

 

[wcv1475]

This is an interesting thread. Moved to QLD from Vic in early 2000s. Couldn't believe how popular Soccer was here for juniors in comparison to my growing up in Vic, with QLD being a so called heartland for NRL. I also find it strange that a lot of people in QLD don't care about Footy (NRL), the people who do follow it are passionate, but a lot don't follow it. So the support here does not seem as ingrained as in VIC for AFL. It seemed to me in Vic a Monday at work was taken up with talk about our team etc but in QLD a lot of people don't follow NRL. And now having one of my Children playing AFL it seems lot of the other parents are born and bred QLD, so seems just as an observation it is getting a foot hold

 

[Tasmanian saint]

They've already stated the 4th team will definitely be in Brisbane and they weren't specific as to where the fifth Queensland team will be based but another one in south east Queensland makes a lot of sense when you look at the growth projections. My guess would be Ipswich and Redcliffe.

I think the NRL collected a lot of valuable data from their 2019/20 State of Origin games in Adelaide and Perth. They must have realised that there isn't long term viability for them in those markets because they've absolutely turned their attention to Queensland this year. SA & WA combined only make up 4.4 million whereas Queensland currently has a population base of 5.2 million and is growing much quicker. QLD also happens to be rugby league inclined for the most part so it's an obvious growth area for the NRL.

We also have a pending 2032 Olympic bid that is likely to be approved over the next 24 months and is going to see lots of money being thrown around for sports teams/venues e.g. the Gabba will be upgraded to become a 50k Olympic main stadium venue and Queensland Cricket/the Lions will obviously be the big beneficiaries of that investment.

I’m still surprised the Nrl has not put a franchise back in Perth there is decent support for it and people prepared to back it financially

 

[werdna78]

While a 2nd NRL team looks good on paper, IMO I think it's a terrible idea and won't last.

They'll end up taking supporters off the Broncos not adding new ones.

NRL needs a strong Broncos to get the good TV deals and their strength will be erroded by adding another team.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

I’m still surprised the Nrl has not put a franchise back in Perth there is decent support for it and people prepared to back it financially

I know some people involved in a Perth proposal back in early 2010's, it was eventually abandoned as the financial backing and support just wasn't there.
The numbers they ended up projecting were like 3-5k crowds.

Now that may have changed in the last decade, but I wouldn't be betting it has changed much...

 

[ForzaRoma]

Putting a second team in Brisbane is a smart idea by the NRL, but surely the Broncos wouldn't like that. They have had the whole city to themselves and bave benefitted from it for decades. I don't see them allowing this to go through without a fight. Brisbane lions should remain largely unaffected by this considering it's a different code and despite some belief, we never competed with the Broncos.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

I know some people involved in a Perth proposal back in early 2010's, it was eventually abandoned as the financial backing and support just wasn't there.
The numbers they ended up projecting were like 3-5k crowds.

Now that may have changed in the last decade, but I wouldn't be betting it has changed much...

Yeah that surprises me with how well the origin games are supported over there I thought they could have been a Melbourne storm type level supported club

 

[DEVO]

Channel Nine Gold Coast News on April 22, 2021. The report stated AusKick participation numbers on the Gold Coast were up 32%.


While I agree that the western corridor makes more sense for the 2023 entry, you may not be aware of the historical significance of the Redcliffe Dolphins in rugby league circles. Redcliffe are the most successful team in the top level Queensland rugby league competitions. A team based in Redcliffe would also be able to tap into the Sunshine Coast market which is the 9th largest city in Australia and is growing very quickly. There is certainly merit to awarding the league licence to Redcliffe but I think I'd go with the western corridor first. Either way, both probably end up in the NRL by 2026.

I'm about 95% certain Redcliffe will be announced by V'Landy's as Brisbane's second team in the next few months. They have history, they have a sizable supporter base for a QRL club, they have their own stadium and they have money. Plenty of money.

 

[Split pea]

V'landys is a Eddie McGuire figure. Says what he thinks makes him look good. NRL will be the same 16 clubs a decade from now.

 

[Split pea]

I’m still surprised the Nrl has not put a franchise back in Perth there is decent support for it and people prepared to back it financially

Club bosses have much influence and just aren't interested in funding expansion.

 

[box070]

I'm about 95% certain Redcliffe will be announced by V'Landy's as Brisbane's second team in the next few months. They have history, they have a sizable supporter base for a QRL club, they have their own stadium and they have money. Plenty of money.

Agreed. I believe it will be Redcliffe. Their boutique stadium is ready to go. They have finance. They have access to the Sunshine Coast.
NRL are s**t scared as to what the AFL are doing up here. Grass roots and woman’s AFL is absolutely flying. I live on the Sunny Coast but coach a club in Brisbane.

If the NRL can’t get the Broncos firing they will be relying on the Qld SOO team to keep the flag flying. They aren’t in any danger of being over taken but they can see the rapid growth at club level.
Basing the Storm out of the Sunny coast and Bringing Redcliffe in secures the northern corridor of Brisbane.

The west and darling downs isn’t a danger area for the NRL. Apart from the Lions moving head qtrs to Springfield lakes they’ll still be playing out of the Gabba so doubt that would have a major effect.

 

[Obzerva]

Seriously can't see a 2nd Brisbane NRL club being sustainable.

The townsman are all in on the Broncos.
Who'd flip?

It's not like it's an Adelaide or Perth in the mid 90s where Adelaide/West Coast were selling out every week.
Brisbane only go at 60% capacity.

agree, and it’s been done before, the Crushers were an abject failure.

the only main change to then and now is the Broncos current ladder position, and the NRL getting nervous

 

[Phar Ace]

Send North Melbourne North to Sunshine coast.

Please No! - What have we done or said to deserve that - we promise to be nicer, better, fairer - please don't thrust North on us!

 

[Phar Ace]

Not one of those towns is large enough to support anything. They are also 200km apart. CQ is not on anyone’s radar and never will except grass roots poaching.

Exactly, the competition, while active, is not a large enough, stable enough to support anything AFL based. The Rockhampton Regional Council population forecast for 2021 is 88,955, and is forecast to grow to 112,701 by 2036. And it is by far the largest centre of anything around that way. 50 years away if ever!