AFL Punting thread

[doggies ftw]

Dogs out to $3.15

 

[fargy]

Probably looking at starting with WC this week at $1.45.

 

[BRWB]

Dogs out to $3.15

Shit got 2.95....I may just put more on, its up to $100 for that money back thing with Sportbet isn't it?

I'm liking Fremantle over Geelong paying $2, Bartel maybe out, and he's their best wet weather player....hmmm

 

[doggies ftw]

Shit got 2.95....I may just put more on, its up to $100 for that money back thing with Sportbet isn't it?

I'm liking Fremantle over Geelong paying $2, Bartel maybe out, and he's their best wet weather player....hmmm

Yeah up to $100 but I'm fairly certain its only on your first bet per match, so if you put more on the result you won't get your money back.

Hmm yeah I like Freo too but down in Geelong you never know.

 

[Wocka]

Yeah up to $100 but I'm fairly certain its only on your first bet per match, so if you put more on the result you won't get your money back.

Hmm yeah I like Freo too but down in Geelong you never know.

Gee / Freo total game points under 165.5 at $1.88 is a good multi filler

 

[doggies ftw]

Gee / Freo total game points under 165.5 at $1.88 is a good multi filler

Love it. Threads going strong lets win some cash

 

[BRWB]

Gee / Freo total game points under 165.5 at $1.88 is a good multi filler

Weather to be wet too isn't it??? Looked at that game, Pav's form and Geelong's KPF's put me off, but if its going to rain, I love that bet.

 

[Butane]

I've started a thread on the Bet tracker sub forum of the punting board that'll update as the season goes on but I had pretty amazing start to the year. Of the 190 rounds I've modelled, Round 1 this year was my 12th best. So I wouldn't expect weeks like that to often all.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...t-a-computer-lose-your-money-for-you.1091781/

www.skininthegame.com.au - This is also my website that I'm just experimenting with. Not a lot of information on it because it's time consuming.

 

[doggies ftw]

No Motlop for Geelong, hmm thinking Freo for the challenge.

 

[Doggy Dan]

Probably no Bartell either.

I'm still happy with Adelaide. Collingwood had a terribly tough hit out last week, Adelaide had a walk in the park. Plus Adelaide have stars all over the park and Collingwood are full of dunces after their best 3 or 4. $1.55 is free money!

 

[Th3 DoG FaTh3R]

I'm also doing the bay 13 $10 challenge, similiar premise but the minimum odds you must take is lower @ $1.10.
Pogba what betting agency or where do you find the markets to bet on supercoach scores? I've never seen this...I'm with bet365

 

[fargy]

Put $10 on the Eagles @ $1.45 through the TAB! Let the games begin

 

[Snake Livermore]

I've started a thread on the Bet tracker sub forum of the punting board that'll update as the season goes on but I had pretty amazing start to the year. Of the 190 rounds I've modelled, Round 1 this year was my 12th best. So I wouldn't expect weeks like that to often all.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...t-a-computer-lose-your-money-for-you.1091781/

www.skininthegame.com.au - This is also my website that I'm just experimenting with. Not a lot of information on it because it's time consuming.

Nice one Butane just curious, what does Sgt-elo mean, and why didn't you include the team experience model in round 2?

 

[doggies ftw]

I'll start adding them into the OP so once you've chucked em on post in here.

Knew I should have got on Freo earlier, they've came in a bit.

 

[BRWB]

I'm also doing the bay 13 $10 challenge, similiar premise but the minimum odds you must take is lower @ $1.10.
Pogba what betting agency or where do you find the markets to bet on supercoach scores? I've never seen this...I'm with bet365

Sportsbet

 

[Butane]

Nice one Butane just curious, what does Sgt-elo mean, and why didn't you include the team experience model in round 2?

Sgt-Elo is the name of one of my 2 models. Elo coming from the type of rating system I use created by Hungarian physicist Arpad Elo - most famously used in chess ratings. But I've had to edit it a bit to make it work for the AFL. There are a few guys out there that use Elo ratings for AFL and everyone does it differently so mines just called Sgt-Elo(My twitter handle is SgtButane).

The Team Experience Model is very dependant on final teams and only picks lines. So you can't do the final calculations until final teams are in and what lines different bookies have at the time. Team Experience Model picked 25 from 37 lines last year at 67.5%. I can guarantee that because I did it live but over the last nine years it's gone 245 from 390 at 62.8% but I can't guarantee that's true because I don't know if I have the timing of the lines correct. It's probably lower but still profitable.

I wrote the below games earlier in the week on the punting board from possible Team Experience bets. I think with Fletcher out that Essendon game might no longer be on there but I'll go through the named teams today to see what is likely to happen.

North Melb Vs Brisbane (Pretty much guaranteed unless North drop a few big names)
Collingwood Vs Adelaide (Extremely line ball depending on final lines/teams)
Essendon Vs Hawthorn (Unfortunately it'll contradict the ELO model but looks likely to happen)

And I'll never pick an interstate away side on either model. Standard deviation of performance is too wide.

 

[Super Hans]

Carlton/Melbourne/Hawthorn multi at $9, worth a tenner.

 

[Doggies_13]

Surprised myself but with all west coasts outs I had a bet on Menzel 1st goal Carlton by 10-19 points at $106

 

[fargy]

I am worried that if it is in my Sportsbet account, I won't do it properly. So I am going to put the bets on at the TAB.

Just looked at the prices and think the Adelaide is probably a special to beat Collingwood @ 1.55

$10 H2H win Adelaide @ $1.55

doggies ftw might have missed this one!

 

[Doggy Dan]

Put $10 on the Eagles @ $1.45 through the TAB! Let the games begin

Well done Fargy, great start!

 

[fargy]

Well done Fargy, great start!

Haha was cursing at the TV in the first quarter

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Just checked the TAB - we are now at $3.55

 

[durrrrrrr]

NBA Tips for Today (Odds from Sportsbet)

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs - Game Total Over 205.0 @ $1.92
Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma City Thunder - Game Total Under 219.5 @ $1.92

For those with a little more dare, I like Houston Rockets to win and game total over 205.5 @ $4.70 (this is a bit risky though)

I've added the multi I've put on for today, but knowing my luck I'll make a dick of myself and all of the above won't happen.

 

[BRWB]

Notice our bet of round, Freo was at 2.02, now 1.7...

 

[TempletonTheRat]

couldn't resist

had $10 on us at $3.50

these odds are way too generous