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Afl Round 16

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jayjones1

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huge round pies v saints very hard game to pick i think saints 1-39.
cats should easily beat crows but over there anything possible.
hawkes will smash lions, lions cant play away from brisse.
dons v eagles hard one to pick both useless, id say dons just.
port v dogs up in darwin hard one to pick as teams with new coach play very well dogs should win just.
blues v swans another hard one to pick id say blues to hit back after there flogging.
tigers to beat north they have been on a roll and just beat freo.
and freo to bounce back v demons at home
Thoughts?

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small bets:
collingwood to be lowest scoring team for the round
collignwood saints lowest scoring game of the round
collingwood saints under 156.5 points
dogs + geelong + bombers + fremantle

load up:
bulldogs + geelong + hawks
saints 1-39
 
jayjones1 said:
huge round pies v saints very hard game to pick i think saints 1-39.

Saints are due for a loss and Pies are the team to do it. Playing well at the moment and Saints coming back from Brisbane may take it out of them.

Collingwood 1-39

cats should easily beat crows but over there anything possible.

I am thinking Adelaide could win this one... Geelong were lucky again against Hawthorn and Adelaide are playing decent footy and at AAMI are hard to beat, sure they are coming back from Perth with only a 6 day turn around but I think they can get them.

Adelaide 1-19

hawkes will smash lions, lions cant play away from brisse.

Agree - In Tassie, Hawks to bounce back comfortably.

Hawthorn 25+

dons v eagles hard one to pick both useless, id say dons just.

Close one, both teams not going great. You would have to say Essendon purely because its in Melbourne and the Dome...

Essendon 1-39

port v dogs up in darwin hard one to pick as teams with new coach play very well dogs should win just.

Western Bulldogs comfortably, too good - even with a new coach for Port.

Western Bulldogs 25+

blues v swans another hard one to pick id say blues to hit back after there flogging.

Tough one... Leaning towards Carlton at the Dome, Sydney will be tough to shake though.

Carlton 1-39

tigers to beat north they have been on a roll and just beat freo.

Im gonna say North Melbourne for this game - Bout time for the tigers bubble to burst and North have the toughness to beat them.

North Melbourne 1-39

and freo to bounce back v demons at home

Fremantle to smash Melbourne, like the Eagles, they cant travel.

Fremantle 40+


Thoughts?
Click to expand...

My early thoughts for round 16.... :thumbsu:
 

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bigange said:
Anyone seen any markets up yet?
Click to expand...

Centrebet:

Adelaide 4.10
Geelong 1.23

Collingwood 2.05
St. Kilda 1.77

Hawthorn 1.20
Brisbane 4.50

Essendon 1.38
West Coast 3.00

West. Bulldogs 1.16
Port 5.20

Carlton 1.55
Sydney 2.42

Freo 1.20
Melbourne 4.50

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Essendon too short for mine, despite how bad west Coast have been playing I think they would win this game more than 1 out of 3 attempts.

Saints price is interesting also. I rate them about 1.60 chances.
 
GoodesStuff said:
Yeah good point, I cant remember the total points but theses two sides played out a low scoring match earlier this year. That was at the DOME, so it should be even harder to score at the G.
Click to expand...

Yeah i just checked, it was 110 exactly!. I thought it was under 100 for some reason. Anyway as has been stated many times, against the top 5 teams the saints complete close the opposition (and themselves) down.
 
KardiniaPark said:
Yeah i just checked, it was 110 exactly!. I thought it was under 100 for some reason. Anyway as has been stated many times, against the top 5 teams the saints complete close the opposition (and themselves) down.
Click to expand...

Havent really looked closely at low scoring team in the past so I could be way off...

But is $7.00-$8.00 for Pies lowest score of round sound about right?
 
GoodesStuff said:
Havent really looked closely at low scoring team in the past so I could be way off...

But is $7.00-$8.00 for Pies lowest score of round sound about right?
Click to expand...

I dont think your far off but you will notice that whoever plays against stkilda is generally 1st of 2nd favourite. I was thinking somewhere around $5.50 would be about right for them this week?. StKilda would probably be up towards double figures for lowest score.
 
Found something interesting today on Sportingbet:

Fremantle $3 to make top 4
W.Bulldogs $1.50 to make top 4

Obviously only one of these two teams is gonna claim it though.

DRAWS

FREO
Melbourne (H)
W.Bulldogs (A)
West Coast (H)
Norths (A)
Sydney (H)
Hawks (A)
Carlton (H)

W.Bulldogs
PorT (TIO)
Freo (H)
Norths (H)
Adelaide (A)
Geelong (H)
Sydney (A)
Essendon (H)

Remember that freo are a game clear too, but that the dogs have the better percentage.

It will probably come down to the round 17 clask between the two sides, but I think Dogs having Geelong in their draw and also being a game behind makes it interesting.

Thoughts?

Collingwood/Swans could be the upsets this round.
 
KardiniaPark said:
I think the Dogs will be a few games ahead of freo, they both have pretty good draws to come obviously but freo cant cover their injuries. Freo might fall away badly, im not sure about hawthorns run home but i would think they would go past freo as well.
Click to expand...
Freo are 2 games and 17% ahead of Hawthorn. Given Fremantle have an easier run home than Hawthorn, I can't see this happening.
 

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Lakey91 said:
Found something interesting today on Sportingbet:

Fremantle $3 to make top 4
W.Bulldogs $1.50 to make top 4

Obviously only one of these two teams is gonna claim it though.

DRAWS

FREO
Melbourne (H)
W.Bulldogs (A)
West Coast (H)
Norths (A)
Sydney (H)
Hawks (A)
Carlton (H)

W.Bulldogs
PorT (TIO)
Freo (H)
Norths (H)
Adelaide (A)
Geelong (H)
Sydney (A)
Essendon (H)

Remember that freo are a game clear too, but that the dogs have the better percentage.

It will probably come down to the round 17 clask between the two sides, but I think Dogs having Geelong in their draw and also being a game behind makes it interesting.

Thoughts?

Collingwood/Swans could be the upsets this round.
Click to expand...

I think Freo has more danger games in that lot, the dogs would start strong favourites (not that it means anything) in all games except cats game & who knows geel may be resting a few just before finals anyway.

I think Freo & Dogs will end up on same no. of wins but WBD % should be the difference.
 
KardiniaPark said:
I came here to say something similar. Pies/Saints i doubt will get over 110pts.
Click to expand...

Just a quick one on this topic..

Does Sportsbet have this option?
I've never been keen on betting on this, until this round and was wondering if Sportsbet did it, can't recall ever seeing it.
 
GFC29 said:
Just a quick one on this topic..

Does Sportsbet have this option?
I've never been keen on betting on this, until this round and was wondering if Sportsbet did it, can't recall ever seeing it.
Click to expand...

Yeh Sportsbet is usually pretty good with scores. You can back the highest score of the week, lowest score of the week, theres an under/over total points line, and a under 150 points option :thumbsu:
 

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Saints by 1-39 looks like the bet of the week. Will be a low scoring game. Cloke out for Collingwood which hurts their structure and puts all the pressure onto Dawes. Goddard possibly back in for the Saints and IIRC they have a good history against Collingwood. Sportingbet don't have the odds up yet but I'm guessing 1-39 would be around $2.10.

Also I've looked before and can't find this lowest scoring team of the week bet and total points for a match under/over on Sportingbet. Don't have it?
 
Barnzy said:
Saints by 1-39 looks like the bet of the week. Will be a low scoring game. Cloke out for Collingwood which hurts their structure and puts all the pressure onto Dawes. Goddard possibly back in for the Saints and IIRC they have a good history against Collingwood. Sportingbet don't have the odds up yet but I'm guessing 1-39 would be around $2.10.

Also I've looked before and can't find this lowest scoring team of the week bet and total points for a match under/over on Sportingbet. Don't have it?
Click to expand...

They had it last week under "Exotics" but I'm not sure what day of the week they open.
Edit: thats just for the lowest and highest scoring teams of the week. Sportingbet dont offer unders/overs if i recall correctly.
 
Barnzy said:
Saints by 1-39 looks like the bet of the week. Will be a low scoring game. Cloke out for Collingwood which hurts their structure and puts all the pressure onto Dawes. Goddard possibly back in for the Saints and IIRC they have a good history against Collingwood. Sportingbet don't have the odds up yet but I'm guessing 1-39 would be around $2.10.

Also I've looked before and can't find this lowest scoring team of the week bet and total points for a match under/over on Sportingbet. Don't have it?
Click to expand...

Nah, the under/over total points and lowest score of the round generally comes out later due to weather etc.

And is it really value taking the Saints 1-39 @ 2.10 when you can take them H2H @ 1.75 ???
 

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