AFL Round 19

[happy punter]

Early odds are out.

Essendon 2.00
Carlton 1.80

North Melbourne 2.20
Fremantle 1.67

Sydney 2.10
Hawthorn 1.70

Geelong 1.80
Collingwood 2.00

West Coast 1.65
Brisbane 2.30

St Kilda 1.20
Port Adelaide 4.50

Melbourne 1.55
Richmond 2.50

Adelaide 3.20
Western Bulldogs 1.35

 

[tarky]

Carlton have been absolutely smashed, they opened at $2.10

 

[asanque]

Carlton have been absolutely smashed, they opened at $2.10

From memory the underdog always wins that match.

Judd also doubtful.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Carlton won't & shouldn't start favourites vs Ess.

Ess should be $1.70ish

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Hopefully Carlton start favourite so I can take a Bombers PYOL.

Doggies were $1.50 in the paper, but into $1.35 is probably correct odds.

 

[adii_7]

essendon(h2h) freo(line) and port adelaide(line) look pretty good to me...

 

[JuDDysthacaptain]

Essendon - get on as much as I hate to say it
Melbourne & Western Bulldogs certainties

 

[tazlgnd]

the eagles are actually horrible

lets not forget the side freo had out there was a man short at quarter time, had a plethora of young players and were still smashed all over the ground.

brisbane at the line is the bet of the week for me, i refuse to believe that the eagles can beat anyone comprehensively.

as for the other games, freo should get up and i dont mind adelaide at the line, depending on which team turns up of course.

 

[jimmyclean]

the eagles are actually horrible

lets not forget the side freo had out there was a man short at quarter time, had a plethora of young players and were still smashed all over the ground.

brisbane at the line is the bet of the week for me, i refuse to believe that the eagles can beat anyone comprehensively.

as for the other games, freo should get up and i dont mind adelaide at the line, depending on which team turns up of course.

No offense but I think that is total rubbish, the only team Brisbane has beaten since round 4 was a bad Collingwood at the Gabba.

While WCE are not a good team their losses at home have mostly come from quality teams (Bulldogs, Geelong, St Kilda). Taking anything from last weeks derby will leave you with a misguided view of both teams.

 

[Lakey91]

Very very tough round of games. Gonna be a nightmare for tipping, but of course there will be some value with the punting.

Hawks/Freo/Geelong/Melb @ 7.83

Juicy.

I can see a lot of games being in the 1-39 range too though - North/Freo, Swans/Hawks, WC/Brisbane, Geel/Coll. Due to the tight odds though, you will be able to get $6ish on 40+ for a lot of games. Might have a nibble on Carlton/Essendon and Geelong/Pies at those odds, as there have been blow outs before.

 

[mike262]

Awesome Value this week in

Essendon - Purely because this is a 50/50 game ($2 odds)
Fremantle -1.72 (sportsbet) -how can u bet against freo after derby. looks like their back to early season form.
Geelong - Geelong usually win these kind of big games
West Coast - At home west coast is somewhat decent. Away from home brisbane are awful
Melbourne- Richmond can only beat interstate teams. Melbourne are showing real good form recently and i dont think a richmond team can stop them.

My 2 cents

 

[Majinbuu]

West coast SHOULD win easily. $20 on h2h

 

[crowsarethebest]

Pretty testing round this one... lots of closish games that can go either way.

 

[tazlgnd]

No offense but I think that is total rubbish, the only team Brisbane has beaten since round 4 was a bad Collingwood at the Gabba.

While WCE are not a good team their losses at home have mostly come from quality teams (Bulldogs, Geelong, St Kilda). Taking anything from last weeks derby will leave you with a misguided view of both teams.

we will see

im not sure what the line will look like but brisbane will cover

 

[jimmyclean]

we will see

im not sure what the line will look like but brisbane will cover

Sorry I probably came off sounding a bit fiery

Unless the line is at around 20+ I would be reticent to take it.
Although understanding WCE are awful in their second halves you might be right and Brisbane might be able to claw enough points back.

 

[ClarkeM]

Multi of Collingwood and Essendon. Roughly $4.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Low scoring game at the SCG this weekend?

I know, I know, the unders destroyed me last weekend. I just can't get excited about the overs at Etihad when St. Kilda is involved.

 

[Hodges]

Got on a multi of Melbourne / Hawks under 39.5 / Doggies @ 4.71

Dont mind the look of Brisbane at the line, TAB has it at 24.5 right now. Cant see WC blowing them out, they arent good enough.

 

[Koutafidamedis]

essendon's a lock this week.

take them at whatever odds because you will collect

 

[mike262]

Got on a multi of Melbourne / Hawks under 39.5 / Doggies @ 4.71

Dont mind the look of Brisbane at the line, TAB has it at 24.5 right now. Cant see WC blowing them out, they arent good enough.

west coast are 1.62 h2h

that cant be right its too high.

line will be about 12 points

Edit: : Line is 8.5, West Coast should win and cover.

 

[Poizun]

essendon's a lock this week.

take them at whatever odds because you will collect

Ok. That was a compelling argument..I just mortgaged my house =)

 

[Hodges]

west coast are 1.62 h2h

that cant be right its too high.

line will be about 12 points

Edit: : Line is 8.5, West Coast should win and cover.

Hmm, my bad - must have been thinking of another game.

 

[Lakey91]

Thinking I might chuck a fair bit on Goodes/Carlton multi for most Brownlow votes for their respective teams (@ $3.52).

Just regarding the free $200 bet on offer with centrebet, it says you have to turn the winnings over 3 times before you can withdraw.

Say I win $100, that means I have to wage $300 in bets before I can withdraw then, correct?

However, can I deposit my $200, get the free bet, then withdraw that $200? Leaving only the winnings from the free bet as my "held funds", and then turn this amount over 3 times before withdrawing?

Whats centrebet like with its online verification/identification process?

 

[jimmyclean]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/99559/default.aspx

with Fev gone it should be an even easier win for WCE.

 

[jimmyclean]

Brisbane for the spoon?

Probably not a bad bet, its basically taking WCE over Brisbane and hoping they make up 3% over the rest of the season, and the bonus WCE might beat NM at home in a few rounds.

On the other hand, Brisbane play 2 more games at home against Adelaide and Sydney, (plus the ever unpredictable Essendon in melb).