AFL Round 3

[RoosterLad]

Anyone who got good odds on the Saints should be jumping up and down right now.

Shaw and Johnson out for the pies, even with Presti and O'Bree back, makes it very hard for Collingwood to even get close.

Have all agencies closed the market for this at the moment? Just went to have a look at Sportsbet but this match isn't available, should have got on earlier but I like to wait for the announcement of teams first.

 

[mattys123]

Have all agencies closed the market for this at the moment? Just went to have a look at Sportsbet but this match isn't available, should have got on earlier but I like to wait for the announcement of teams first.

Stkilda into 1.44 on Sportingbet, and 1.42 on Centrebet, can't blame anyone for jumping on.

Fremantle gathering interest too, in from as much as 2.60 to 2.32.

Blues are the bet of the week IMO, Essendon's side is shithouse, and the Blues at 1.53 seems like value.

 

[RoosterLad]

Saints 1.35 on Sportsbet but now the Carlton-Essendon market is down. Spewing!

 

[lions_den]

St. Kilda/WestCoas/Syd/Carl @4.62

St.K -15.5/Syd -24.5/Carl -12.5 @4.66

Couldn't bring myself to bet against Brissy, though I do think they'll lose.

Good luck

 

[Lensen]

Really can't be ****ed with my blog this week, too busy.

I've taken $100 on North at $1.9247 on Betfair (net of commission). Down about $91 for the year.

My weekly challenge is still kicking and has been placed on Sydney this week at $1.10.

 

[yeah_nah]

$20 on
St Kilda -24.5 into
Adelaide into
Geelong

paying close to $8.

first bet of the year, decided to stay away from the Port v Brisbane game and Essendon v Carlton as both seemed risky

 

[asanque]

I haven't checked the rising star market for a while, but I'm astounded to see Nic Nat at about $1.80 to win.

Those odds are crazy after 2 rounds.

I think if he stays fit he will definitely be top 3, but a lot can happen in 20 more rounds.

I got on Nic Nat at $7.00 and the only problem is that Betfair doesn't have a rising star market.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Best Bets

WBD -13.5
This could be ugly for haw, they have 1 ruckman who is average & was on empty last mon, they’re off a 6 day break in a big game on a hot day, losing Sheils & Osborne so this tests their depth even more & you’ll get match ups where WBD have experienced guys on a few kids…..no match up for Hall, neither gibson or gilham are strong enough…..WBD have 3 defenders in Lake, Morris & Williams to counter the 2 haw glamour forwards.
WBD to cover, even though i was impressed by haw's fight last week…..

Fremantle +11.5
I reckon freo should just about start favourites in this game, sounds crazy I know but geel losing Mooney & Scarlett & then having to travel off a 6 day break & to WA…..forecast 27 degrees. Geel struggled twice over there last year & were lucky to win both times even though scoreboard said 3 goal win....the year before freo should have won when they lost by 1 point
Sandilands should even up the midfield battle…..freo are a huge show, but I’ll take the + points out of the respect for how good geelong are in a close finish.

Port Adelaide win $1.80
They should be strong $1.60 favourites.
Bris aren’t great in Adl
Port’s backline is perfectly set up to stop a forward line like Brisbane’s, they have Chaplin, Carlisle & Cornes to counter the bigs & have enough run from their smaller defenders.
Remember port nearly beat bris in bris last year (was 10 goals to 1) & even though port were awful last year—they beat them by 48 pts in Adl as well.
K.Cornes has held S.Black to just 18 touches the last 2 games, this spells big trouble for bris as they rely so heavily on black & power especially with brennan out…..note, even though bris are 2-0 they’ve been getting beaten in the clearances—you do this away from home & its lights out I reckon as the crowd won’t get you home like in the carl game.

Carlton -10.5 (got it early)

I see a motivated & well rested carlton team winning this by 5-6 goals. They are well settled & have looked good and except for some poor goal kicking vs bris they'd
be 2-0.
Ess have the record but there are so many key changes its like saying the crows own syd & will continue the run--things have changed. If carl get on top i seriously doubt they'll let up given the humiliation ess have dished out to them over the last few years.

St.Kilda -15.5

I think Shaw is a massive out for Coll & S. Fisher is a massive in for Stk. With no shaw it will be tough for coll to get the ball out of their own 50m--especially if O'Brein has to worry about defending Reiwoldt & i can't see another match up, presti can't stay with him & Maxwell would get killed. With Fisher back in i see the stk defence holding coll again & i still think Stk has a large midfield edge.....Stk by 5 goals.

 

[Cuzz09]

St.Kilda win
West Coast win (I like the ins and Norths outs)
Port win
Sydney lead at half time
Carlton to beat the line
Adelaide to beat the line
Bulldogs to beat the line
Fremantle to win

odds of approx. $87

 

[smiddaz123]

Anyone who got good odds on the Saints should be jumping up and down right now.

Shaw and Johnson out for the pies, even with Presti and O'Bree back, makes it very hard for Collingwood to even get close.

I got on them at $1.49. I put enough on that I can get a decent return, but not care if I lose it.

Can't put enough on that I'll be a bit annoyed if Collingwood win haha.

 

[Cuzz09]

I got on them at $1.49. I put enough on that I can get a decent return, but not care if I lose it.

Can't put enough on that I'll be a bit annoyed if Collingwood win haha.

Yeah I put north earlier in the week but I like the changes for both teams ( I like the Ins for eagles and the outs for North) so might have to get on the eags while I can - win/win day

 

[dUkezz]

am i the only ones who belive port are dead set bargains... i cant belive it they are playing at aami, adcock and brennan out, power playing some good footy shoulkd be way too strong... expecting port by 4 or more goals here... mite slap 500 on them @ 1.90

 

[smiddaz123]

am i the only ones who belive port are dead set bargains... i cant belive it they are playing at aami, adcock and brennan out, power playing some good footy shoulkd be way too strong... expecting port by 4 or more goals here... mite slap 500 on them @ 1.90

500? Do you shit out money or something?

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Pies are a good team

Saints are a great team

Saints beat every team that threatened to challenge last year except in the GF.
I think saints will be similar this year with an intense hunger to win and confidence to match, similar to geelong last year.

Saints to win by 30+

Saints

yes.

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Best Bets

WBD -13.5
This could be ugly for haw, they have 1 ruckman who is average & was on empty last mon, they’re off a 6 day break in a big game on a hot day, losing Sheils & Osborne so this tests their depth even more & you’ll get match ups where WBD have experienced guys on a few kids…..no match up for Hall, neither gibson or gilham are strong enough…..WBD have 3 defenders in Lake, Morris & Williams to counter the 2 haw glamour forwards.
WBD to cover, even though i was impressed by haw's fight last week…..

Fremantle +11.5
I reckon freo should just about start favourites in this game, sounds crazy I know but geel losing Mooney & Scarlett & then having to travel off a 6 day break & to WA…..forecast 27 degrees. Geel struggled twice over there last year & were lucky to win both times even though scoreboard said 3 goal win....the year before freo should have won when they lost by 1 point
Sandilands should even up the midfield battle…..freo are a huge show, but I’ll take the + points out of the respect for how good geelong are in a close finish.

Port Adelaide win $1.80
They should be strong $1.60 favourites.
Bris aren’t great in Adl
Port’s backline is perfectly set up to stop a forward line like Brisbane’s, they have Chaplin, Carlisle & Cornes to counter the bigs & have enough run from their smaller defenders.
Remember port nearly beat bris in bris last year (was 10 goals to 1) & even though port were awful last year—they beat them by 48 pts in Adl as well.
K.Cornes has held S.Black to just 18 touches the last 2 games, this spells big trouble for bris as they rely so heavily on black & power especially with brennan out…..note, even though bris are 2-0 they’ve been getting beaten in the clearances—you do this away from home & its lights out I reckon as the crowd won’t get you home like in the carl game.

Carlton -10.5 (got it early)

I see a motivated & well rested carlton team winning this by 5-6 goals. They are well settled & have looked good and except for some poor goal kicking vs bris they'd
be 2-0.
Ess have the record but there are so many key changes its like saying the crows own syd & will continue the run--things have changed. If carl get on top i seriously doubt they'll let up given the humiliation ess have dished out to them over the last few years.

St.Kilda -15.5

I think Shaw is a massive out for Coll & S. Fisher is a massive in for Stk. With no shaw it will be tough for coll to get the ball out of their own 50m--especially if O'Brein has to worry about defending Reiwoldt & i can't see another match up, presti can't stay with him & Maxwell would get killed. With Fisher back in i see the stk defence holding coll again & i still think Stk has a large midfield edge.....Stk by 5 goals.

Freo

 

[Gets!]

500? Do you shit out money or something?

More you bet, more you win

 

[joxstrap]

I have $1,000,000 on Saints to clear the -15.5 line @1.91.

And a $5 on the following multi, which is absolutely guaranteed:

Saints clear the -15.5 line,
Dogs under 39.5,
Car/Ess either under 39.5,
North/West either under 39.5,
Geelong with 24.5 point headstart,
Adelaide ahead at each change,
Sydney ahead at each change.

@27.

 

[ECHUCABOY]

Agree with Carlton, St Kilda and Port in a multi all to win straight out...

Now call me crazy but I think Richmond have got a shot this weekend, they will atleast get within 40....before you start slandering, who honestly thought Melbourne could potentially win the game against Collingwood?

Richmond have come to their senses and brought in blokes that have a crack, tuck, rance, cousins etc...I'm not going to look up stats but I'd think we all agree that Richmond can win the contested footy but struggle with their possesion efficiency.

Secondly I still don't think Sydney are that good. They challenged a lucklustre Saints and beat a deplorable Adelaide in a funny game of football.

I think the line of -40 is extremley good and the tigers can relax this week playing on a smaller ground and just worry about winning the footy and getting it forward....Sydney may have kicked a couple of scores of late, but we all know their style at the SCG....Just throwing it out there

 

[Lensen]

Most Goals bets tonight:
$26 on Riewoldt @ $3 (Sportingbet)
$4 on Davis @ $13 (Sportsbet)
$2 on Gardiner @ $34 (Sportingbet)
$1 on Dal Santo @ $65 (Sportingbet)

 

[iDon]

500? Do you shit out money or something?

He always wins remember

 

[The Big Woofer]

am i the only ones who belive port are dead set bargains... i cant belive it they are playing at aami, adcock and brennan out, power playing some good footy shoulkd be way too strong... expecting port by 4 or more goals here... mite slap 500 on them @ 1.90

You are by no means alone on this--see above write up, i am having a real good crack as well....

the only thing, i reckon the port odds may drift a little because there's talk Brogan may miss, now i still reckon they're value if he's out but no question if he misses the price will drift. Might be worth waiting to get on.

 

[arkie]

St. Kilda -17.5
Geelong -13.5
Adelaide -15.5

@ $7.04

 

[1 Million]

I have $1,000,000 on Saints to clear the -15.5 line @1.91.

And a $5 on the following multi, which is absolutely guaranteed:

Saints clear the -15.5 line,
Dogs under 39.5,
Car/Ess either under 39.5,
North/West either under 39.5,
Geelong with 24.5 point headstart,
Adelaide ahead at each change,
Sydney ahead at each change.

@27.

Saints get up by 14 with a Cloke long goal from 60 after the siren. Please post the look on your face here and I shall be ever so grateful

 

[lions_den]

Saints get up by 14 with a Cloke long goal from 60 after the siren. Please post the look on your face here and I shall be ever so grateful

 

[joxstrap]

A draw through to a 15 point loss will result in something analogous to a facepalm occuring.

Happy if pies win though.