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Preview AFL-wide trade week speculation

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Bingles

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This thread doesn't involve rumors. Everything discussed within is genuinely a prediction or a desire during trade week. Feel free to discuss each others ideas and so forth.

Rather than flooding the rumor threads with "I heard Gary Ablett rather than heading to the Gold Coast is going to sign a one year deal with Geelong before leaving to play under Sheedy and the GWS!!!!!" when you know it's something that you made up but wish it was a rumor or simply want to troll.

Having said that... Here is my early predictions for AFL Trade Week 2010 - in particularly Carlton.

I feel that we'll get the following transactions done during trade week;

To Hawthorn Bret Thornton
To Carlton Hawthorn's 2nd round pick

Why? Hawthorn lining up for Tarrant. However, Carlton beat them by a single solitary draft selection. Had Hawthorn's second round pick been higher than Carlton's then Fremantle would have made the trade with Hawthorn. Alas, we get our man while Hawthorn settles for a very good experienced defender in T-Bird.

To Port Adelaide Sam Jacobs
To Carlton Port Adelaide's 1st round pick

Why? Port Adelaide have a genuine need of a ruck. The more Jacobs plays the more his trade value has increased. There are a number of other teams on the market who need rucks and Jacobs is the most promising. I have a feeling that unless we're able to get something special with the Power's pick then this trade comes back to haunt us repeatedly (despite Carlton still having an outstanding ruck division).

To Fremantle Carlton's 2nd round pick
To Carlton Chris Tarrant

Why? Fremantle can't do any better in return for Tarrant. We will have essentially trade T-Bird for Tarrant at the cost of moving down one pick in the draft. I can live with that quite happily.

To West Coast Carlton's 1st round pick + Steven Browne
To Carlton Mitch Brown

For the Blues it comes down to who do you want to make a major play for? A former first round key position defender or a goal scoring flanker? I know it may not be the popular sentiment on this board but I'd like a crack at Mitch Brown. I also think that whoever ends up signing Knights (the goal scoring flanker) will end up paying well over the odds. Brown would be given a year or two to break into the team properly while Tarrant/Waite play KPD (with the other in the forward line). We're able to take such a gamble because we get the Power's pick through the Jacobs trade (as above).

Trade Week Summary for Carlton

Out: Bret Thornton, Sam Jacobs, Steven Browne, pick 18, pick 36

In: Chris Tarrant, Mitch Brown, pick 16, pick 37

Following that -- retired: Simon Wiggins -- Delisted: Brad Fisher - Caleb Tiller - Rhys O'Keeffe

Gives us five picks in the national draft. I think we have to draft Garlett *and* Ellard this year, correct? Drafting Lucas Cook (KPF), Luke Mitchell (KPF) and Kyle Hartigan (KPD) with the two promotions.
 
Not really sure there's a great deal of difference between "rumours" and "speculation." For mine, the rumour thread deals a lot with speculative draft picks for Carlton, and at day's end some of the posters who post in rumours have a good track record.


Neither of these threads are about players that are coming to Carlton or are leaving Carlton


Apologies Bingles, but I really don't want to go back to the old days when entire threads were started for a post that could've gone in another thread. Then again, that's for the mods to decide.
 
Nothing against M Brown but I think our long term future would be rosier if we had 4 picks in the top 40 than 2. I'm sick of us drafting kids on a prayer with picks in the 60s that get injured and delisted after 2 years.
 
I would be happy if all of those things happened Bingles. Except I'd keep Okeffe on the list.


I wasn't too happy about getting Taz, but if all we are loosing is T-bird and 1 slot back in the draft then I happy to get him on board.
 

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hypothetical: our harbrow compensation pick is tradable, which has some interesting consequences.

Lets say everitt wants a trade - would you do Carltons pick 18 for Everitt + harbrows compensation pick?

I am assuming for harbrow we either get tier 2 which is a pick immediately after the holders 1st round pick that cant be used until 2012 (in your case might be in the 12-16 range maybe)

OR a tier 3 pick which is at the end of the first round which can be used this year onwards - pick 26
 
hypothetical: our harbrow compensation pick is tradable, which has some interesting consequences.

Lets say everitt wants a trade - would you do Carltons pick 18 for Everitt + harbrows compensation pick?

I am assuming for harbrow we either get tier 2 which is a pick immediately after the holders 1st round pick that cant be used until 2012 (in your case might be in the 12-16 range maybe)

OR a tier 3 pick which is at the end of the first round which can be used this year onwards - pick 26
Short answer looking at it on face value... Yes I personally would do it...
 
Yeah I am going to pass on Everitt. Best role is third tall forward and he is only so-so at that. Is a jack of all trades and we have Walker/Carrazzo/Gibbs to swap around

The point to consider is that if it was a tier 2 pick, and you finished ...6th in 2011, then the pick would be pick 13 for you. pick 18 now for everitt and pick 13 in two years time. Worst/best case scenario is that you win the grannie in 2011 and you get pick 18 back again.
 
The point to consider is that if it was a tier 2 pick, and you finished ...6th in 2011, then the pick would be pick 13 for you. pick 18 now for everitt and pick 13 in two years time. Worst/best case scenario is that you win the grannie in 2011 and you get pick 18 back again.


I prefer this scenario thanks :D

No to Everitt !!!!!!!!
 
The point to consider is that if it was a tier 2 pick, and you finished ...6th in 2011, then the pick would be pick 13 for you. pick 18 now for everitt and pick 13 in two years time. Worst/best case scenario is that you win the grannie in 2011 and you get pick 18 back again.
You're not including all the GWS concession picks.
 

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Following that -- retired: Simon Wiggins -- Delisted: Brad Fisher - Caleb Tiller - Rhys O'Keeffe

I have absolutely zero idea how this is any different to any of the other threads. I would like to see us look at Spanger / Mckinley as well although not sure if this is the right thread!

QUESTION THOUGH
delist Caleb Tiller?
Hes like 18 isn't he? We picked him up with our last pick and was obviously a pick for the future... why the hell would we delist him?
 
You ain't previewing nada.

T-Bird? Why don't Hawthorn just get Tarrant themselves?
Jacobs for a first round? Seem possible but would want more. If he is going then just give him to the team thats offering overs. May sound harsh but I wouldn't give a **** if he preferred to go home. Your either a Carlton player or your not. If he isn't going to be, send him to the team willing to give us a half decent player and their 1st rounder.
People are starting to make taz sound like Brian Lake. Is he really that good? Short answer, No.
Mitch Brown, what has he done to justify a 1st rnd pick + a player?
 
It sounds like there will be a lot of 3-way and even 4-way trade deals happening this year.

for example, if Sauce leaves (which I'm not convinced he will) we might see something like this happen:

Sam Jacobs to Port Adelaide
Daniel Motlop + Pick 34 or Nathan Krakouer compensation pick to Fremantle
Chris Tarrant + Pick 38 to Carlton

Not sure if we'd get Fremantle's pick, Steven Browne might be thrown in there somewhere too.
 
It sounds like there will be a lot of 3-way and even 4-way trade deals happening this year.

for example, if Sauce leaves (which I'm not convinced he will) we might see something like this happen:

Sam Jacobs to Port Adelaide
Daniel Motlop + Pick 34 or Nathan Krakouer compensation pick to Fremantle
Chris Tarrant + Pick 38 to Carlton

Not sure if we'd get Fremantle's pick, Steven Browne might be thrown in there somewhere too.

This NO :thumbsd:
 

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To Hawthorn Bret Thornton
To Carlton Hawthorn's 2nd round pick

Following that -- retired: Simon Wiggins -- Delisted: Brad Fisher - Caleb Tiller - Rhys O'Keeffe

207_not_sure_if_serious.jpg
 
It sounds like there will be a lot of 3-way and even 4-way trade deals happening this year.

for example, if Sauce leaves (which I'm not convinced he will) we might see something like this happen:

Sam Jacobs to Port Adelaide
Daniel Motlop + Pick 34 or Nathan Krakouer compensation pick to Fremantle
Chris Tarrant + Pick 38 to Carlton

Not sure if we'd get Fremantle's pick, Steven Browne might be thrown in there somewhere too.

There aren't many 3 or 4 way deals, they generally just get too complicated.
 
Port will not give us a first round pick for Sam Jacobs, not even this year. Mumford was traded for pick #28 last year, so mid to late 20s would be the range for Sauce. Thornton is a late third rounder at best. How could you ask for a second round pick for a guy who couldn't get a consistent game this year? The only Carlton player who is first round pick worthy in a trade is Walker, and I can't see Tex being traded unless he asks to go.

Also, speculation is just another word for rumour..
 
dont think craig is looking at jacobs, however it has been confirmed today that adelaide are in trade talks with carlton over walker. obviously carlton are going to look at the kpd. davis, otten, young, talia etc.
 

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