Anyone checked out the draw?

[Blue Bawls]

Okay, speculative threads are fraught with danger, but why not speculate, now we've got the lay of the land? We don't have a bad run and I can't see why we won't win at least 11 games for the season. Hell, with a little more development, 13 or 14 games is on the cards:

Adelaide W (Based on current form)
West Coast W (Judd in Perth)
Brisbane ? (At the Gabba? Hmm. Be interesting to see how we defend Bradshaw this time)
St Kilda L (They are the form team)
Essendon ? (Not playing bad and they lift against us)
Fremantle W (We're not as dumb as Richmond)
Richmond W (See above)
Sydney ? (Bogey side)
Collingwood W (Pfft)
Kangaroos W (If we haven't got our shit together by then...)
Geelong L (Hopefully not by too much)
Port Adelaide ? (Hate to tip us against them over there)
Melbourne W (No Kruezer to play for )
Adelaide ? (Can't imagine they'll be that out of form by the end of the season)

 

[GordonBlue]

Okay, speculative threads are fraught with danger, but why not speculate, now we've got the lay of the land? We don't have a bad run and I can't see why we won't win at least 11 games for the season. Hell, with a little more development, 13 or 14 games is on the cards:

Adelaide W (Based on current form)
West Coast W (Judd in Perth)
Brisbane ? (At the Gabba? Hmm. Be interesting to see how we defend Bradshaw this time)
St Kilda L (They are the form team)
Essendon ? (Not playing bad and they lift against us)
Fremantle W (We're not as dumb as Richmond)
Richmond W (See above)
Sydney ? (Bogey side)
Collingwood W (Pfft)
Kangaroos W (If we haven't got our shit together by then...)
Geelong L (Hopefully not by too much)
Port Adelaide ? (Hate to tip us against them over there)
Melbourne W (No Kruezer to play for )
Adelaide ? (Can't imagine they'll be that out of form by the end of the season)

Lets compare that to what we thought about rounds 1-8 before the year

Richmond ?
Brisbane W
Essendon W
Sydney ?
Bulldogs ?
Hawthorn L
Fremantle W
Collingwood ?

So by the rate we are going... I feel more comfortable with the "?" than the "W" next to each team...

 

[zeeCFC]

Adelaide - LOSS - based on a gut feeling and we havnt done so well in 50-50 games
West C - WIN - Although they're looking much improved, i cant see them winning
Brisbane - WIN - Jamo won't get injured this time
St Kilda - LOSS - we could win, but i think it will be a close loss
Essendon - WIN - NEVER AGAIN!!
Freo - WIN - NEVER AGAIN!!
Richmond - WIN - not as big as last time, but a win nonetheless
Sydney - LOSS - didnt see any signs last game to say we could win this time
Collingwood - WIN - We've got them worked out
Kangaroos - WIN - i dont think they've changed much since the NAB cup, we've dropped form but will still win

Geelong - LOSS - not saying we can't win though
Port - LOSS - they wont allow a comeback like last year
Melbourne - WIN - can't get complacent though
Adelaide - LOSS - i think this one is at aami?

 

[Bluebear]

Okay, speculative threads are fraught with danger, but why not speculate, now we've got the lay of the land? We don't have a bad run and I can't see why we won't win at least 11 games for the season. Hell, with a little more development, 13 or 14 games is on the cards:

Adelaide W (Based on current form) Bogey side and at home. 50/50
West Coast W (Judd in Perth) It's at Etihad. W
Brisbane ? (At the Gabba? Hmm. Be interesting to see how we defend Bradshaw this time) We seem to be matching up well on them, but hard at home. 50/50
St Kilda L (They are the form team) Another Bogey side. Loss. Their current form is inflated by playing average or inconsistent sides, but wins are wins, and we won't get them unless they have a very bad day.
Essendon ? (Not playing bad and they lift against us) List for list we should beat. 50/50.
Fremantle W (We're not as dumb as Richmond) Yet they beat us two weeks ago, and at their home......50/50
Richmond W (See above) Rabble who will be playing for their future and not the team by this stage. Win
Sydney ? (Bogey side) Should beat them down here. Should have done last year, and the Bogey is wearing thinner. 70/30
Collingwood W (Pfft) Win.
Kangaroos W (If we haven't got our shit together by then...) Another of our Bogey sides. 50/50
Geelong L (Hopefully not by too much) Loss. We are not up to their standard, even on a bad day.
Port Adelaide ? (Hate to tip us against them over there) The girls with the curls. We play well at AAMI, but which Port will turn up? 50/50
Melbourne W (No Kruezer to play for ) Shouldn't be underrated. If they have the PP locked up they might be allowed to try and win one. Have been very good in most games this year. Win.
Adelaide ? (Can't imagine they'll be that out of form by the end of the season) Bogey side again, but should beat them over here. Hopefully they will be out of finals contention and blooding more youngsters. 50/50.

I count 4 wins, 8 in the ballance, and 2 we shouldn't win unless something remarkable happens.

So that gives us 8 wins, but up to 16 wins.

Seems about right given how even this year is.......who knows, we could still have a worse year than last.

......but I doubt it. I think we will win 4-5 f the 50/50's and end up on 12-13 wins this season. Should be top 6, and close to top 4 with that IMO.

 

[BlueGibbs2011]

BB has it right!

 

[Bluebear]

BB has it right!

You sound surprised.

 

[Jeremias]

Adelaide - 50/50 game. AAMI is a tough trip so it will be tough regardless of their poor form over the past month.

West Coast - A rebuilding side that we should knock over without too much fuss. If it was at Subi I'd be less confident but since it's at Etihad I'd be very surprised if we let this one slip.

Brisbane - A tough one to say. They are a different outfit at home. Defensive set-ups the key here, with Brown and Bradshaw obvious dangers. Normally I'd say 50/50 but considering their backline will likely still be decimated by the time this game is played, we should be favoured to win.

St Kilda - Bogey side. They are playing great football and although personally I don't believe they will keep it up, they still have it over us and should prove too strong.

Essendon - 50/50 but against what is really a bogey side. One would hope that we can get on top of them but their speed is a huge issue for us so it certainly will not be easy.

Fremantle - We won't let them get on top like a few weeks back. Freo and playing in Melbourne do not match at all, so we should win and win comfortably.

Richmond - If we lose this one we won't deserve to be playing finals. Should be a comfortable win.

Sydney - Bogey side. Probably a 50/50 but I'm a lot more confident that we can beat them here as opposed to up there. The loss against them at TD last year was heartbreaking. We've improved since then and they have slid a little so I'll back us to get a win. Not a sure thing, though.

Collingwood - We have the wood over the Pies and I'll be expecting that to continue.

Kangaroos - Again, a bogey side. 50/50 because they aren't so good at the moment but anything can happen.

Geelong - See St Kilda. Except unlike St Kilda, they can, and will, keep it up. I'd love to get a win here but it won't happen.

Port Adelaide - Port are a soft team and if we pressure them they will crumble. We love playing them so I expect no different.

Melbourne - Melbourne will be a good team in a few years but not this year. Should be a comfortable win.

Adelaide - Who knows? They frustrate us when we play them in Melbourne but we should be gunning for finals footy and they may be too, but going on their past month I doubt it. Probably just in our favour but not far away from a 50/50 game.

I've identified between 4 and 6 definite wins, 2 definite losses and the rest 50/50s. We have to come to play in every single one of those games in the balance if we want to seriously make finals.

 

[Bluebear]

I've identified between 4 and 6 definite wins, 2 definite losses and the rest 50/50s. We have to come to play in every single one of those games in the balance if we want to seriously make finals.

Could have just said "agree with BB".

 

[CrippsonBlue]

You really have to take it about 1 week at a time.

If we lose our next 5, and Freo win their next 5, then obviously we are not going to go in confidently. Furthmore, if we win our next 3 convincingly, while the Saints start to look a little shaky, then I will actually give us a chance to win it.

We are currently in the 8, and to stay there we need to win at least 2 of the next 3. That is certainly attainable, and that is as far ahead as we need to look for now - I'll predict the subsequent games based on form when the time comes.

 

[Blue Bawls]

You really have to take it about 1 week at a time.

If we lose our next 5, and Freo win their next 5, then obviously we are not going to go in confidently. Furthmore, if we win our next 3 convincingly, while the Saints start to look a little shaky, then I will actually give us a chance to win it.

We are currently in the 8, and to stay there we need to win at least 2 of the next 3. That is certainly attainable, and that is as far ahead as we need to look for now - I'll predict the subsequent games based on form when the time comes.

Profound...

 

[CrippsonBlue]

Profound...

Yes it was

 

[Gezza125]

In answer to the thread title: Most of us have I would have thought... and we seem to come up with the same stuff. We could win as few as 4 games and as many as 10 but it is full of lists of ifs and maybe's.

Generally I think we have a good draw and assuming no ridiculously major injuries we should win 11-13 games. What tells me we are still not there is the inconsistency. Problem is we will drop games we should win and potentially win the ones we shouldn't because of our youth.

I'm still bleeding that have lost 4 games by a culminative total of 32 points. We really should be 6-2.

So when daydreaming about home and away results, I hope we get into the finals (12 wins) actually win a final, who knows maybe 2, and then lose the next when we get slapped by a more seasoned opponent. Enter 2010, and we go all the way...

 

[lamaros]

I've identified between 4 and 6 definite wins.

Huh? Did someone change the definition of that word on me or something?

7 to 11 more wins for you guys this season I'd guess. I don't think any team apart from Saints and Geelong can pencil in definite wins. Melbourne are showing some form and anything could happen with Richmond, while for everyone else is just a case of who plays better on the day.

Some of you are really undervaluing Collingwood though. They have a lot of genuine quality to come back into their side.

 

[Charbzilla]

*possible inclusion takes into account 1 week at ANTs level.

Adelaide - W (Wiggins listed as TEST)
WCE - W (Johnson back from injury/ Grigg possible inclusion / Houlihan possible inclusion)
Brisbane - W (Carrazzo possible inclusion)
St Kilda - L (Jacobs possible inclusion)
Essendon - W
Freo - L
Richmond - W
Sydney - W
Collingwood - W
Kangaroos - W
Geelong - L
Port - L
Melbourne - W
Adelaide - W

Finals? Top 6 fingers crossed

 

[jj1978]

Adelaide - WIN, the crows are not the same crows of yeteryear.. even though they'll wanna win for McCloud, their current form and our good form in Adelaide in recent times should get us over the line.

West C - WIN, no Kerr or an underdone Kerr playing, at the dome (which we play quite well at now)... if we can cover Lynch and Kennedy we should go alright!

Brisbane - WIN, play head to head and we can do it!

St Kilda - LOSS, can't deny current form at the moment, but we're not without a chance... they'll have to lose one eventually!

Essendon - ?, could go either way... their pace worries me!

Freo - ?, could go either way... their pace and attitude at the moment is dangerous.

Richmond - WIN, destroy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They'll be in play kids, tank mode!

Sydney - WIN, finally we'll beat them!!!

Collingwood - WIN, this pies team is just not that good! Pendelbury is really the only one to worry about. Fev to get some revenge!

Kangaroos - WIN, just not the north we're used to... the shinboner spirit has been depleted a little. We could have Warnock/Jacobs up and about by then and more games into Hampson meaning their talls can be covered.

Geelong - LOSS, it's Geelong... we may just rest a few of our tired players for this one as we may have already secured a finals berth.

Port - ?, I hope Fev turns the CHAD into his biatch in this one and Tredrea phones home to get him the hell out!

Melbourne - WIN, they're not without their chances... but with Richmond fighting for that number 1pick, Melbourne having 4 wins or less and finishing 16th will get the 1st and 2nd pick in the draft!

Adelaide - WIN, we will be in finals mode and ready to destroy!

 

[Jezza U Beauty]

Adelaide - 50/50 game. AAMI is a tough trip so it will be tough regardless of their poor form over the past month.

West Coast - A rebuilding side that we should knock over without too much fuss. If it was at Subi I'd be less confident but since it's at Etihad I'd be very surprised if we let this one slip.

Brisbane - A tough one to say. They are a different outfit at home. Defensive set-ups the key here, with Brown and Bradshaw obvious dangers. Normally I'd say 50/50 but considering their backline will likely still be decimated by the time this game is played, we should be favoured to win.

St Kilda - Bogey side. They are playing great football and although personally I don't believe they will keep it up, they still have it over us and should prove too strong.

Essendon - 50/50 but against what is really a bogey side. One would hope that we can get on top of them but their speed is a huge issue for us so it certainly will not be easy.

Fremantle - We won't let them get on top like a few weeks back. Freo and playing in Melbourne do not match at all, so we should win and win comfortably.

Richmond - If we lose this one we won't deserve to be playing finals. Should be a comfortable win.

Sydney - Bogey side. Probably a 50/50 but I'm a lot more confident that we can beat them here as opposed to up there. The loss against them at TD last year was heartbreaking. We've improved since then and they have slid a little so I'll back us to get a win. Not a sure thing, though.

Collingwood - We have the wood over the Pies and I'll be expecting that to continue.

Kangaroos - Again, a bogey side. 50/50 because they aren't so good at the moment but anything can happen.

Geelong - See St Kilda. Except unlike St Kilda, they can, and will, keep it up. I'd love to get a win here but it won't happen.

Port Adelaide - Port are a soft team and if we pressure them they will crumble. We love playing them so I expect no different.

Melbourne - Melbourne will be a good team in a few years but not this year. Should be a comfortable win.

Adelaide - Who knows? They frustrate us when we play them in Melbourne but we should be gunning for finals footy and they may be too, but going on their past month I doubt it. Probably just in our favour but not far away from a 50/50 game.

I've identified between 4 and 6 definite wins, 2 definite losses and the rest 50/50s. We have to come to play in every single one of those games in the balance if we want to seriously make finals.

We're playing Freo at Subiaco J - I really don't like our chances much in that game.

We should really beat Adelaide both times, and surely we can finally beat Sydney given that we play them in melbourne next time.

I also think we're better than 50/50 against Port even at AAMI - it took Tredders kicking 7 for them to beat the tigs, and there's no way he'll do that against us if we have Jammo or Waite on him.

Having said all of that, the sequence of games is such that i think our wins/losses will be roughly even the whole way, so it will probably come down to the last 2 or 3 rounds to determine if we get a finals berth.

One massive plus however is our excellent percentage.

 

[blue_boys]

*possible inclusion takes into account 1 week at ANTs level.

Adelaide - W (Wiggins listed as TEST)
WCE - W (Johnson back from injury/ Grigg possible inclusion / Houlihan possible inclusion)
Brisbane - W (Carrazzo possible inclusion)
St Kilda - L (Jacobs possible inclusion)
Essendon - W
Freo - L (Crowley to shut down Judd)
Richmond - W
Sydney - W
Collingwood - W
Kangaroos - W
Geelong - L
Port - L
Melbourne - W
Adelaide - W

Finals? Top 6 fingers crossed

Hard to do it from the stands... he is out for the season

 

[Charbzilla]

Hard to do it from the stands... he is out for the season

My mistake, for some reason i had him pencilled in

Ibbotson did a pretty good job though

 

[Gezza125]

Adelaide L
West Coast W
Brisbane L
St Kilda L
Essendon W
Fremantle W
Richmond W
Sydney W
Collingwood W
Kangaroos W
Geelong L
Port Adelaide L
Melbourne W
Adelaide W

Now: 4-4
Rem: 9-5
Overall: 13 wins 9 losses 115%

Note the 6 game winning streak, the late season slump followed by two handy victories ensuring a confident start to the finals... dreaming is free

 

[Charbzilla]

Big ask HARKER. but i like your optimism..

 

[CrippsonBlue]

You can stick a W next to the Geelong game.
We will win this.

I agree that I can see us pulling an upset against one of the top 2 sides, but I feel it will be the Saints, not the Cats (Im probably only thinking this though because we're due for a win against them)

 

[Charbzilla]

I agree that I can see us pulling an upset against one of the top 2 sides, but I feel it will be the Saints, not the Cats (Im probably only thinking this though because we're due for a win against them)

i am quietly confident as well (VS the saints).. This is based on the fact that we verse them at the MCG and not Etihad thank god (they are the specialists there!)

 

[Jezza U Beauty]

You can stick a W next to the Geelong game.
We will win this.

I've told a couple of mates that i reckon we will go very close to beating the Cats this year.

We were pretty good in the NAB game with most of our best players missing. AJ was good on Gablett, and their forward line is kinda manageable if we can keep Johnson and Chapman under control.

 

[Blue Bawls]

The way I'm feeling at the moment, I wonder if we can even two more games this year...

 

[BlueTouchPaper]

Richmond, minus Waite, could become a danger game!
Setanta on Richo could become the next Russell on Knights.