Bad Feeling!

[Spagger83]

i have a really really bad feeling that not only we arent going to trade to improve our list or trade away our dead wood but we will also miss out on B Cousins.
in effect this means that bar afew hacks (egan, iles, lonie) and retirements (burns, wakelin, holland) we are going to have the same bloody list next year.

surely we (collingwood) cant let that happen, we need to be trying to improve our list at any cost and im worried that mick malthouse has turned into the new kevin sheedy.

he's spending time on the rubbsih gaelic comp and writing newspaper articles during trade week, shows where his loyalties are!
go to the telstradome please mick and try everything to get an afl hardened backman, a midfielder and a ruckman asap....please!!

if not we better pray that we at least get Cousins!

 

[Bloben]

I trust Hine and co to make the right decision.

If we decide not to push too hard for Adam Thomson then I don't see it as a failure but that the powers that be have made the call that Thomson is not what the club is looking for.

Again we are, as has been reported, favourites for Cousins. After hiring a PI to check out his lifestyle I would imagine that the deal was close. If it falls through now then it would be due to Collingwood deciding that he is not worth the risk. If they do that then I will trust their judgement because the last thing we want is him to come and stuff up.

I think it is important not to lynch the club for what happens this week. At least wait until after the drafts before we bag the list management decisions because we may pass up giving away a draft pick because Hine has another draft special that he has lined up.

 

[ralu]

I also have a bad feeling. That my economics paper could be returned with an F written in red ink.
Oh and that is that ben cousins wont be wearing black and white next year

 

[Snag Breac]

I think it's just the nature of this nothing draft, Spagger. This article from today's Age sums it up well.

The great footy stock crash


JAKE NIALL
9/10/2008



THE "for sale" sign that was draped around Hamish McIntosh for two days has been taken down. An attractive property, with size and a good finish, the Big Mac received no serious bids.

Jamie Charman, another luxury big unit, didn't draw a single bid either. He was for sale on the quiet. The Brisbane agent let it be known that "Charmo" was available for "the right price", but no one raised a hand.

Daniel Kerr, a prestige Perth vehicle that might drive the buyer up the ladder, was available for two first-round picks — a tag that saw him passed in. The Eagles have since decided to keep him.

Alan Didak was not up for trade, Collingwood insisted. Definitely not. Well, he might be if someone offered "something extraordinary". Nothing special — say Port Adelaide's pick four — was forthcoming. "Dids" is not moving.

Ryan O'Keefe put himself on the market. Only one prospective buyer has emerged, the Hawks. They can't pay more than $400,000, well short of Ryan's reserve. He will have to decide whether he's willing to play for a great team for less, or he could be stuck in Sydney.

What is going on here?

There has been a crash in the sub-prime player market. Players are worth less than dot-com shares. In terms of value, North's three tradeables (McIntosh, Daniel Harris, Corey Jones) are heading south. Corey Jones has depreciated more than the Dow Jones.

Judged by the lack of buyers, the players on the block are truly a bunch of all-ordinaries.

Conversely, draft picks have never been so valued or precious. They are hyper-inflated. A player who might have been worth a first-round pick 12 months ago isn't worth pick 28.

It is remarkable that McIntosh, a 24-year-old, high-calibre ruckman entering his prime, isn't deemed worth a top-10 pick.

Fear is driving the crash in the value of one commodity — seasoned players — and giving draft picks, which are really a speculative stock, the cachet of government bonds. They're the safest investment. So the market says.

Clubs are fearful of the impact of the Gold Coast and Western Sydney "franchises". These new teams will consume many of the draft picks over the next five years.

The humble draft pick, even nondescript second rounders, have turned into crown jewels that must be protected. Once clubs threw them away like confetti, now they're desperately clinging to the opportunity — that's all a draft pick is, an opportunity to select a teenager before another club — to be part of "the last uncompromised draft".

If the AFL, the game's answer to the central banks, has "created" the hysterical draft inflation by its decision to invent two new teams, other less obvious factors have exacerbated the crash.

One is Hawthorn. Another is Geelong.

These teams built premiership teams via draft picks (and champion father-sons), not by rapacious raiding, or topping up with mature bodies. Hawthorn did bring in some seasoned players en route to its 10th flag. Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham and Stuart Dew were giveaways — they cost the Hawks almost zilch.

Since everyone follows the leader in the AFL, the rest of the competition is aping the Hawks and Cats. Ironically, those clubs might be heading in the other direction. The Hawks are willing to part with pick 16 for O'Keefe, who turns 28 next year; the Cats may snare Andrew Lovett if Essendon is willing to pick up the tab.

The fact that Hawthorn and Geelong are seen to be miles ahead of the pack means few clubs — almost none, actually — believe they're "one or two" players away from a flag. If you cannot win a flag in 2009 or even 2010, there's less reason to buy a 26-year-old. (Note that the players receiving most interest, for example Robert Warnock, are young).

The Bulldogs might have been the exception. They could have given away their first pick for a key forward. But that pick was spent on father-son recruit, Ayce Cordy. So they, too, are stuck trying to sell a mid-range player (Farren Ray) into a bear market.

No one wants to part with even moderate draft picks for average players who want out. No one is bursting to get Mark Seaby, Ray, Rhyce Shaw et al. Normally, these guys would be the steak knives that help facilitate a major deal. But there aren't any major deals. So they wait by the phone.

Come the Friday deadline, doubtless, there will be a liquidation sale, when the unwanted will be traded for pick 101.
That's called panic selling. It happens when you can't find a buyer.

http://cobar.yourguide.com.au/news/national/national/sport/the-great-footy-stock-crash/1329001.aspx#





Source: http://www.realfooty.com.au/articles/2008/10/08/12231454 ...

 

[Pedro]

I'd rather not trade at all than end up making a major blue like the McKee/Pick 3 thing or the Egan/Morrison debarcle. Despite whatever we perceive our needs to be, Hine has proven that he will not draft/trade for a player he doesn't rate, just to fill a need.

There's no need to slash wrists if we don't trade. Lets face it, we won't be the only ones if that happens.

 

[Pennypacker]

i have a really really bad feeling that not only we arent going to trade to improve our list or trade away our dead wood but we will also miss out on B Cousins.
in effect this means that bar afew hacks (egan, iles, lonie) and retirements (burns, wakelin, holland) we are going to have the same bloody list next year.

surely we (collingwood) cant let that happen, we need to be trying to improve our list at any cost and im worried that mick malthouse has turned into the new kevin sheedy.

he's spending time on the rubbsih gaelic comp and writing newspaper articles during trade week, shows where his loyalties are!
go to the telstradome please mick and try everything to get an afl hardened backman, a midfielder and a ruckman asap....please!!

if not we better pray that we at least get Cousins!

Well said, I couldnt agree more.

 

[daics cousin]

As Malthouse said in an interview the other day,we will find that a lot more trades will happen from next year,because of the lack of draft picks a lot of clubs will endeavour to trade players when GC17 and west sydney hold the primo picks.

As far as Cousins is concerned.No one knows waht will happen,Everything is speculation,for all we know he may not play footy again.We will see.
In an article in the sun today it says that,the board are split on getting him.
Look if he is ok ,we should pick him up.
We must remember ,that if we aquire Cousins ,we will not be getting the same player he was say 2-3 years ago.
For all we know,he could quite possibly break down after afew games,he has been out of footy for 18 months,and he is a recovering drug addict.
We must remember this.He is not our sole answer,but providing he shows glimpses of his best ,and can mentor our young midfield,he will be very good.If he is available we must pick him up .

 

[well left]

The problem is any AFL hardened backman or ruckman worth persuing is going to cost you a 1st round pick at a minimum and players such as R.Shaw, Johnson etc are not going to get these deals done. There actually isn't any backmen on the market otherwise Hawthorn would be on to them as well.

The Jake Niall article is a very good one. Where once trades for picks inside the top 20 were happening far too much, they realistically are not happening enough anymore. Draft picks seem to be a golden ticket.

As for Mick, I am sure he has already had his input - this week is more about Hine and Walsh. I have faith that they have analysed our deficiencies and are working to fix them but won't go overboard and sell the farm to do it.

 

[gifted1]

will our list next year be better than this year? yes
why? natural improvement in our youngsters
trade for trade sake is moronic, you cant improve your list substantially in a trade period unless you get really lucky, its trade ffs, you give up something to get something back, its not like you can trade a dud for a star
get a grip, these hysterical posts are f*cken annoying

 

[Lethal06]

Well said, Gifted1.

Trade week is invariably anti-climactic and very, very few trades dramatically alter a team's fortunes other than in exceptional cases, such as Carlton's snaring of Chris Judd. We have a good, young, improving list which lacks some "star" quality, especially in the midfield. As far as I can tell, there aren't any players with "star" quality up for trade, so we may as well hang on to our picks and hope to land such a player in the draft.

 

[Quicky]

will our list next year be better than this year? yes
why? natural improvement in our youngsters
trade for trade sake is moronic, you cant improve your list substantially in a trade period unless you get really lucky, its trade ffs, you give up something to get something back, its not like you can trade a dud for a star
get a grip, these hysterical posts are f*cken annoying

Spot on!!

Why people get so wound up over a lack of trades is beyond me.

Some people seem to be blind to the fact that you can draft players to a team!! If you do it right you improve your team. Just because you know little or nothing about a player doesn't mean they'll be no good. Its fear of the unknown!!

In Hine we (should all) trust!!

 

[3rdMan]

Most of the players on offer are not worth getting. None are clearly worth a first or second round pick (which it was clubs are asking for them). This draft is too strong to waste picks on mediocre talent, especially with GC having an effect on next year's draft.

The way forward for us is to build up as big a base of young players as possible, as this will help absorb any failures (just like the Hawks, who had quite a few failures, but many picks). Not trading precious picks for 27 year old players. We need to stick with our plan, not trade for instant gratification.

 

[omen666]

If people want Collingwood to make trades that brings quality players then we have to move players other teams want and they would include
Didak - I am not opposed to this move
Thomas - Not a chance
pENDES - No
Cloke - No
Swan - Maybe
Nathan Brown - No
It is hard to build a team if you don't want to move a first round pick or one of your better players

 

[shawthing09]

The problem is any AFL hardened backman or ruckman worth persuing is going to cost you a 1st round pick at a minimum and players such as R.Shaw, Johnson etc are not going to get these deals done. There actually isn't any backmen on the market otherwise Hawthorn would be on to them as well.

The Jake Niall article is a very good one. Where once trades for picks inside the top 20 were happening far too much, they realistically are not happening enough anymore. Draft picks seem to be a golden ticket.

As for Mick, I am sure he has already had his input - this week is more about Hine and Walsh. I have faith that they have analysed our deficiencies and are working to fix them but won't go overboard and sell the farm to do it.

Yes. Post of thread IMO. Summed it up pretty well.

Most of what we are after most of the other clubs are too so the going price is pretty high.

We should be trying to get rid of some of the "dead wood" players but no team really wants them so they're probably of more value to us then on the trade market. Delisting and retiring a huge number of players in the same year means you have to take likely list cloggers in the 70's and 80's. Ben Johnson for example is more value running out a year and then not being offered a new contract when his expires.

I was pretty keen on trading Ben and Rhyce for any kind of pick upgrade but it seems that is unlikely.

I don't think it's as much a case of us being inactive. More we don't have anything with real currency that we would give away. Unless players request a trade O'Keefe this year Judd last year it is pretty rare to see players with real currency traded it's more just fringe players shifting around.

 

[Jabso]

The only player we should be interested in is Harris IMO. If there's no buyers or sellers that interest us, there is no point in trading.

We have had a major influx of retirees and delistings already, it will hardly be the same list next year. The 22 will look a lot different too.

 

[TheMachineTeam]

The same list without those spuds and 4 Hine specials would be a great list for the future along with a couple of elevations and the rookies

 

[well left]

If we could use the 3rd round pick we are supposedly getting for Shaw to get Harris then I think that is a good result. We will then have effectively traded a player on the fringe of our best 22, who was arguably going to be overtaken by Barham and draft picks, for a player that should be best 22 and plays a position that is considered a weakness.

As others haver said, the rest of the deficiencies should then be addressed via the draft and through the progression of our youngsters.

Like shawthing09 mentioned, if we can not get anything for Johnson, then let's hold on to him for a year as depth/cover and delist next year. He will be replaced by a round 5 pick this year (and he will be more value to us than that) but next year, with less retirements, he may be replaced by a round 3 pick.

 

[harry1990]

You Guys never learn Collingwood never pick any one up .......Been following them for 30 years same old story...

 

[DAWESOME!!]

So you would have seen Bucks come down from Brissy, Rocca from Sydney, Clement and Holland from Freo, Licuria from Sydney, the Hoddle Street wars with Richmond back in the day in those 30 years I suppose?

As mentioned, if we could get something at addressed a weakness in our list for Shaw or Johnson, given they won't be in our best 22 next year, that would be worthwhile. I think we have one or two more good young forwards than we strictly need, so if one of them could be traded for a pick or a midfield prospect, I wouldn't be adverse, but there's no crisis that requires major surgery to the list to repair. We need to be realistic about what can be achieved at the trade table, and yes, at the draft table, and recognise that the rest needs to happen with the work done with the list we have, as well as a large chunk of luck.

 

[ant22]

i have a really really bad feeling that not only we arent going to trade to improve our list or trade away our dead wood but we will also miss out on B Cousins.
in effect this means that bar afew hacks (egan, iles, lonie) and retirements (burns, wakelin, holland) we are going to have the same bloody list next year.

surely we (collingwood) cant let that happen, we need to be trying to improve our list at any cost and im worried that mick malthouse has turned into the new kevin sheedy.

he's spending time on the rubbsih gaelic comp and writing newspaper articles during trade week, shows where his loyalties are!
go to the telstradome please mick and try everything to get an afl hardened backman, a midfielder and a ruckman asap....please!!

if not we better pray that we at least get Cousins!

I get a little annoyed when people think that trading automatically improves the list. Chances are that half the clubs lists will improve by trading and the other half will go backwards. You only trade if you think the list will improve. CLubs are playing hardball this year hence no deals are getting done. Clubs that are desperate for a trade this year will get duded. If something comes along and we can get a good player cheap today then go for it but it looks unlikely that clubs will trade cheaply

 

[Optimax]

You Guys never learn Collingwood never pick any one up .......Been following them for 30 years same old story...

medhurst
wood
Morrison
clement
carracella
Holland
Cummings
Rocca
Buckley
Licuria
Obree
Wakelin
Molloy
Williams


80s
Brain taylor
Roach
Cloke
Gary Shaw


that list and i know there is probably more seems to suggest we trade quite alot actually