Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[FlowersByIrene]

Probably one of the worser performances from the year by the young boys, the SEN Votes reflect that, but it's a learning curve, and no body went backwards. Thankfully this might be the catalyst to drop some under performing older statesmen. The bye comes at a good time for injured players like Boekhurst, Curnow, Mckay and Cuningham to get back into shape. I'm hoping we'll see less of the Whites and Walkers and more of the kids in the next few weks.

 

[Big Sim is Back]

I've been a fan of Sam's since before he came over from Adelaide and I think very quickly he's shown his value to this side. Very solid all round footballer but I do agree he'd be last on the list I provided.

Comparing him to some of the other names in that group isn't fair given the talent there. There is no comparison to be made. He's not someone who we're relying on or expecting to develop into a star as a few of the others project, but I do I see him as being of enormous value, both through the rebuild and on the other side.

I don't see him as competing with any of the players you've named. Has spent the majority of this year on the wing but his flexibility is a real advantage insofar as he'd be a very capable contributor in a number of positions - not just through the midfield, but up forward too.

I said at the time he came across that he's as certain as you can be to play 100-150 solid games for the Carlton Football Club and nothing I've seen has made me rethink that stance. He won't be a star but he's as tough as they come, a real leader, and should be a very valuable role player at the other end of a rebuild.

Do you see upside in him J, given his youth and relative inexperience?

 

[Jeremias]

Do you see upside in him J, given his youth and relative inexperience?

Yes, absolutely. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect to see improvement from a 23 year old with less than 40 senior games to his name. We should expect further improvement from Kerridge, as most would from players who fit that profile.

I do think Kedge can and will improve further but I wouldn’t be expecting that improvement to be astronomical. He’s already a good solid footballer so I’m not expecting to break out and all of a sudden become a superstar, but there’s no reason why he can’t improve certain aspects of his game incrementally.

He's already shown himself to be a very valuable contributor but there's no denying he can be a bit rough around the edges. The main criticism of his game would be that he's not particularly clean with the ball and tends to fumble when he probably shouldn't - clean that up and he may only have improved 1 or 2 percent but I dare say the result will be more pronounced than that.

 

[Big Sim is Back]

Yes, absolutely. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect to see improvement from a 23 year old with less than 40 senior games to his name. We should expect further improvement from Kerridge, as most would from players who fit that profile.

I do think Kedge can and will improve further but I wouldn’t be expecting that improvement to be astronomical. He’s already a good solid footballer so I’m not expecting to break out and all of a sudden become a superstar, but there’s no reason why he can’t improve certain aspects of his game incrementally.

He's already shown himself to be a very valuable contributor but there's no denying he can be a bit rough around the edges. The main criticism of his game would be that he's not particularly clean with the ball and tends to fumble when he probably shouldn't - clean that up and he may only have improved 1 or 2 percent but I dare say the result will be more pronounced than that.

I am very hopeful you are right, because as you say, he is already a good solid foot soldier. It would not take much improvement to turn him into a really damaging one. Certainly has the attributes to build on and will not die wondering if he gave it is his best shot.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I want to know who the seven people are who have robbed Lachie of his 100% in the poll

 

[BluesRule]

Time to unleash more youth. We are in a rebuild, but have only 30 AFL players so far this year???

Would like to see KJ, SOS, Phillips and maybe Whiley in the next game, (plus hopefully Murphy back), as they have all shown strong VFL form while our best 22 have now had two down games. Weak performance should not be rewarded with automatic selection. We must be hungry every game.

Last two games our clearances have been rubbish, and our forwards are industrious but not efficient.

1. Gorringe has shown a bit, but he is not a ruck or a KPF. Could become a tall midfielder/utilty. Develop that in the VFL and now test KJ.
2. The idea that SOS should not play till Walker gets 200 games up is wrong IMO. We should seek maximum performance from the team - then let the milestones for players take care of themselves. Walker has another year of contract/plus 10 games this year - to get to 200 games, so will get opportunities without holding back SOS.
3. Kreuzer is not 100%. We need 100% or we will lose the clearances and get smashed - so bring in Phillips. We win when Kreuzer is 100% so get him right.
4. I like Sumner, Daisy, Army, Wright, Lamb and Kerridge. But they are all midfielder/forwards not inside mids. If Whiley is up he needs to be tested.
5. Murphy is automatic probably replacing Army who has been good. Murphy will help more at clearances.

Would love to get McKay, Curnow and Cuningham in later this season after they show something in VFL.

Loving the progress so far.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Interesting poll results.
Cripps, Docherty and Weitering all have 63 votes at 98.4%.
Looks an awful lot like somebody posted a troll vote and deliberately left those 3 off. No Carlton supporter in their right mind would consider any of those three to NOT be in the best 22 by the end of the year. They should all show 100%. Do the mods have the ability to see the individual votes?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Interesting poll results.
Cripps, Docherty and Weitering all have 63 votes at 98.4%.
Looks an awful lot like somebody posted a troll vote and deliberately left those 3 off. No Carlton supporter in their right mind would consider any of those three to NOT be in the best 22 by the end of the year. They should all show 100%. Do the mods have the ability to see the individual votes?

I am outraged. Let me check if I can see.

I know there was an option to show voters chices when I created the poll, but I didn't check it, now im not sure if I can add that in after the fact, maybe the mods would know

Aphrodite

 

[Aphrodite]

I am outraged. Let me check if I can see.

I know there was an option to show voters chices when I created the poll, but I didn't check it, now im not sure if I can add that in after the fact, maybe the mods would know

Aphrodite

Just had a look if I could edit the poll to show voters choices and I can't FBI.

It's odd that in some polls votes can be viewed and in others they can't.

It's possible that in this particular poll it's the way it was set up.

Maybe The Old Dark Navy's can have a look as well.

 

[Pafloyul]

I'm more surprised that the 'other' is only at 9.6% - no faith in SOS, Mckay or anyone we may get over the off season?

 

[HARKER]

So this is an end 2018 poll.

Not taking injury into account:

The obvious ones to me are: Cripps, Weitering, Docherty, Plowman & Byrne = 5
Have plenty of confidence in: CCurnow, Boekhorst, Sumner & Silvagni = 4
Haven't seen enough of but feel good about: Cuningham & McKay = 2

Have doubts on being best 22 players: Lamb, Graham & Kerridge = 3
Have stronger doubts on: Buckley, Smith, Foster, Gorringe & DVR = 4

Plenty of 20-22 year olds to be added this year and then next. Will change things a lot.

 

[LanceRomance]

HARKER the 66 game rebuild started last year apparently.....

 

[HARKER]

HARKER the 66 game rebuild started last year apparently.....

I didn't realize that the poll itself was a best 22, 2018 poll.
Given we've had no issue bringing in 20-22 year olds, the GWS4 MKII may also come into account (should the deal come about) along with other draftees in this and possibly even, next year.

Just realized that I didn't mention Jaksch. Not many have, including the OP.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I didn't realize that the poll itself was a best 22, 2018 poll.
Given we've had no issue bringing in 20-22 year olds, the GWS4 MKII may also come into account (should the deal come about) along with other draftees in this and possibly even, next year.

Just realized that I didn't mention Jaksch. Not many have, including the OP.

Ita best 22 at the END of 2018 Harks, basically, how many of our kids will be in our 2018 finals sides as a lock.
I.e after the 66 games

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Yes, absolutely. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect to see improvement from a 23 year old with less than 40 senior games to his name. We should expect further improvement from Kerridge, as most would from players who fit that profile.

I do think Kedge can and will improve further but I wouldn’t be expecting that improvement to be astronomical. He’s already a good solid footballer so I’m not expecting to break out and all of a sudden become a superstar, but there’s no reason why he can’t improve certain aspects of his game incrementally.

He's already shown himself to be a very valuable contributor but there's no denying he can be a bit rough around the edges. The main criticism of his game would be that he's not particularly clean with the ball and tends to fumble when he probably shouldn't - clean that up and he may only have improved 1 or 2 percent but I dare say the result will be more pronounced than that.

I agree with everything you say about Kerridge bar this last point. He makes some very frustrating unnecessary mistakes and it's the one thing that is holding him back from being a bonafide gun AFL player. Tidy this aspect of his game up in combination with experience and maturity and he could be top shelf by the age of 26.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Due to my obsession with this rebuild and "youth" i've often in the past been concerned when younger players are passed over for more senior players who's existence in Carlton's future is limited at best. This weekend was the first time I was truly angry at one of those decisions though. If you were present on the Game Thread you would have seen the discussion (largely instigated by me) revolving Jason Tutt's selection as a contentious call at best. Eventually, I was proven correct as Tutt's performance largely reminded us of why he was dropped from the Western Bulldgos and dropped to our reserves in the first place. I understand, as I think all Carlton supporters do the need to set standards for selection, and Tutt, seemingly having met those standards in the two's perhaps deserved selection. The point is moot at this stage however, excellent performances by Dick, Viojo-Rainbow, Graham and Silvagni in the Reserves mean hopefully an influx of youth is right around the corner.

Looking at the numbers this week, it is disappointing to see a mere 8 youth players pull on a jumper. The AFL Player ratings spike is largely a reflection of that as the number spikes due to Cripps and Docherty having more influence with limited data points in the average. It must be noted though that the AFL Player Ratings ARE showing general improvement across all our boys, although Kerridge has stalled slightly in the last few weeks. The Inside Football Ratings note that this was a poorer game for our youth, we were smashed in the end and a lot of our kids couldn't get into the action.

Let's continue looking to the future.


Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2), average youth AFL Player Rating* (Series 3) and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points** (Series 4)
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players.


GAME 13 - LOSS vs GWS (65-127)
8 Youth Players
OUT: Daniel Gorringe (Hip), Dennis Armfield (Groin)
IN: Jason Tutt, Andrew Phillips
Coaches Votes: none
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Patrick Cripps - 361.4 (+), 5
Sam Docherty - 334.2 (+), 8
Lachie Plowman - 144.1 (+), 4
Sam Kerridge - 131.3 (-), 5
Jacob Weitering - 102.7 (+), 5
Ciaran Byrne - 86 (+), 5
Jed Lamb - 77.6 (+), 2
Liam Sumner - 54.7 (+), 3

Avg Rating: 161.5, 4.6

We were shown what a team of under 24 year olds can do this weekend, GWS are setting up for a dynasty, we've still got a fair way to go.
Sam Docherty remains a pillar of consistency and is doing everything to lock down an AA half back position, Doch had 30 disposals, at a slightly dissapointing 66% eff rating, but had 7 R50's and I50's in a good performance under a lot of pressure in the back half. Patrick Cripps only had 19 disposals, but had 10 contested possession, seven clearances and four tackles. He managed to add a bit of magic in with his handpasses over the shoulder even with limited interaction with the ball. Ciaran Byrne had a resurgent game, collecting 15 disposals, 3 marks but most importantly 8 tackles. Lachie Plowman competed well for the first three quarters before the flood gates opened in the last, he had 15 disposals at 86% eff took 6 marks and had 6 1%ers. Jed Lamb was very quiet, with 9 disposals and no goals, his 3 I50's a shining light in an otherwise dim performance against his old side. Jacob Weitering took 4 marks and shut down Jonathan Patton well early, he had 4 1%ers but only had 11 disposals. Liam Sumner was largely inneffective, he had 11 disposals at 54% eff. Sam Kerridge found the ball 22 times but didn't do a lot of damage with it, he was accurate at 86% eff but apart from his 3 clearances and 2 behinds he couldn't contribute much.

From the Magoos:
This weekend: Northern Blues v Sandringham

Young runners Matthew Dick and Dillon Viojo-Rainbow were prominent performers in the Northern Blues' 40-point loss to Sandringham in the VFL at Preston City Oval on Saturday. Six-gamer Dick amassed 33 possessions, while the untried Viojo-Rainbow had 23 touches and slotted three goals in the third quarter to keep his team in the contest. Midfielder Nick Graham had 21 disposals in a performance unlikely to earn a senior recall.Exciting father-son prospect Jack Silvagni kicked two goals and a poster, and Dylan Buckley also contributed two majors.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

GAME 66 FORECAST​

Here is a (poorly done) photoshop of a rough establishment of the youth presence in our best 22 by Game 66 of the rebuild in Round 23, 2018. This list is as voted by the Carlton board, where over 50% of voters have determined these players are guaranteed to be pulling on the navy blue jersey in the last game of our rebuild. Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty were locks to be included in this list at the start of the year, however it is impressive to note we have discovered five other players in a mere 12 rounds of football that will contribute to the success of this football club.

Looking at this it is exciting to see our backline is seemingly established for the next decade, if we were to obtain Marchbank that would be almost be overkill at this stage but would likely solidify that line on the ground fully.

It's clear from this image that our young spine needs work, we need to hope that McKay is a successful draft pick, whilst simultaneously find a centre half forward for the future, is this Kristian Jaksch, is this Adam Tomlinson, is this somebody else? Who knows. Along with this our midfield needs obvious work. Blaine Boekhurst and Cuningham need to reutrn form injury an make an impact and we need to attack the draft for Midfielders this season.

 

[Seen5]

Absolutely ripping thread Flowers! Read the OP a couple of months ago and just read the lot, getting me excited for the next few years.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Writeup will be up later tonight (sorry for the delay) been a busy week

 

[Azzurro]

Writeup will be up later tonight (sorry for the delay) been a busy week

LIFT

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We lost to the filth, Byrne did an ACL, did anythig go right? Well according t the numbers our kids did okay. Everyone continues to build on their body of work, our players are all consistently rising in the AFl Player Rankings each week. Our average number would have gone to a season high if not for Jack Silvagni's outlier, but that too will build in time, as we discovered a player in young SOS. The Insider Ratings seemed to be slightly flawed this week, regardless, we had an improved week in that regard. We also played more players than last week. And every week we do that, is an improvement.

Focus on the green shoots, there's still plenty, and they're growing ever so slowly. The most important thing is... they're growing.


Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2), average youth AFL Player Rating* (Series 3) and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points** (Series 4)
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players.


GAME 14 - LOSS vs Collingwood (45-57)
9 Youth Players (Jack Silvagni - Debut)
OUT: Jason Tutt
IN: Jack Silvagni
Coaches Votes: Sam Docherty (1)
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Patrick Cripps - 367.3 (+), (score not available)
Sam Docherty - 339 (+), 7
Lachie Plowman - 152.5 (+), 4
Sam Kerridge - 134.1 (+), 8 (is this 8 an error?? his tagline was, Butchered ball from a win. Decision making a concern, and just laid one tackle, as Kedge worthy of 8 points?)
Jacob Weitering - 109.5 (+), 2
Ciaran Byrne - 95.1 (+), (score not available)
Jed Lamb - 86.1 (+), 7
Liam Sumner - 61.8 (+), 6
Jack Silvagni - 4.4 (+), 5 (Debut)

Avg Rating: 149.9, 5.57

The positives, we played 9 kids, and they generally played well. The negatives, we lost to the Pies and byrne is out for up to 18 months.. let's get this over with.
I'm going to talk about the "third generational one" Jack Silvagni debuted for the old dark navy's and in times it was like watching the old dark's. without getting to over-hyped he looked prodigious at times, leaping over Scott Pendlebury to take a leaping chest mark drawing shades of the memory of his father in the long sleeved jersey. He had 15 disposals, 7 contested, took 6 marks, two contested and could of had a goal, if he didn't pass it off to Bryce, his first touch was an assist, what's not to like? Sam Docherty showed desperation and heart in defence with 23 disposals, 91% eff, 7 marks, 5 rebound 50's and 4 tackles. This young man, cannot help but perform. Patick Cripps did some prodigious things but mainly struggled to work his way into the game. He still had 21 disposals, 11 contests and 5 clearances, but it wasn't his best performance. Jed Lamb played an excellent game, 20 disposals, 80% eff, 7 marks and a goal in an impressive performance by the young man. Sam Kerridge has done what he's done for the past month, put in an effort, not a great effort, but he's never in our bottom few players, he had 20 disposals, at 55%, he can do better. Lachie Plowman continues to impress, with 14 disposals at 85% and 3 1%ers he was solid down back. Jacob Weitering is dipping slightly out of form and could only manage 10 disposals, although he went at a military 100% eff, he had 5 marks but didn't trouble the stats sheet in any other meaningful way. Liam Sumner made limited impact with only 6 possessions but placed excellent defensive pressure at time, laying 4 tackles and earning 3 free kicks for. Ciaran Byrne was the most unfortunate player of the night, going down with an ACl whilst on 19 disposals. His elite run and carry, and his heart will be missed and it's taken the wind out of my sails for the next 18 months.

From the Magoos:

his weekend: Collingwood v Northern Blues

Midfielder Nick Graham will be a topic of conversation at the Blues' match committee meeting this week after his game-high 36-possession performance in his side's 13-point loss.The 22-year-old also accumulated 10 inside 50s and nine clearances to cap his eye-catching display through the middle. Following a month-long layoff to nurse a fractured wrist, Blaine Boekhorst made a good return with 16 touches and two goals switching between wing and half-forward roles. Fellow ball-winner Mark Whiley contributed to the Blues' second-half revival and finished with 26 disposals and eight tackles, while Kristian Jaksch kicked two goals.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'm tired of losing. I'm tired of playing so few youth. It's not getting us anywhere. All our kids had games that weren't their best this week. Cripps and Docherty played well but didn't shine, the others had redeeming moments but couldnt put together a four quarter performance. The trends are all going downwards, we're playing less kids, they're performing worse generally and Carlton is losing. It's time for a shake up, inject some youth, bring fresh energy to the contest. We're 15 games into a 66 game rebuild, I'll admit this period is probably the toughest time, but we need to make strides. And this week wasn't one of them.



Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2), average youth AFL Player Rating* (Series 3) and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points** (Series 4)
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players.

GAME 15 - LOSS vs Adelaide (47-107)
8 Youth Players
OUT: Ciaran Byrne
IN: Dennis Armfield
Coaches Votes: none
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Patrick Cripps - 380.4 (+), 6
Sam Docherty - 351.9 (+), 7
Lachie Plowman - 157.7 (+), 3
Sam Kerridge - 136.6 (+), 5
Jacob Weitering - 113.8 (+), 5
Jed Lamb - 85 (-), 2
Liam Sumner - 68.2 (+), 3
Jack Silvagni - 13.6 (+), 2

Avg Rating: 163.4, 4.1

This was a bad day, a bad day to have a bad day, and bad days create mad ways by which a sad daze descends upon my phase. The rebuild phase.
Well... Sam Docherty played well, 27 disposals at 92.6% eff, 8 marks, 3 Rebound 50's and 3 1%ers in a complete performance off half back. Patrick Cripps played well as well, 27 disposals, 12 clearances, 5 tackles, the man is a bull. Unfortunately it's getting tiring having Crippa and Doch as our only two elite youngsters, for the rest put in sub par performances. Sam Kerridge found the ball 19 times, went at 63%, had 3 clangers but laid 5 tackles. Liam Sumner found 10 disposals, had 2 clangers, laid 4 tackles, his effort is always there. Jacob Weitering took some sublime intercept marks but let his opponent get away from him, he had 13 disposals, 4 marks and 3 1%ers. Lachie Plowman took 4 marks and had a phenomenal 11 1%ers but couldn't restrict Josh Jenkins. Jack Silvagni kicked a goal and my god it felt good, but he could only find 7 disposals and 1 mark for his outing. Jed Lamb was most disappointing with 9 disposals at 44% efficiency.

From the Magoos:
This weekend: Northern Blues v Geelong - Saturday July 9, 2pm, Preston City Oval

Matthew Dick has continued his good run of form in the VFL with a team-high 29 possessions in the Northern Blues' 66-point loss to Geelong at Preston City Oval on Saturday.

Other Carlton-listed players to stand out included Kristian Jaksch (21) and Dylan Buckley (19 and a goal).

 

[Jeremias]

Looking forward to the update this week - might be a more positive one, FlowersByIrene.

Really good signs from some of the younger guys at both levels.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Looking forward to the update this week - might be a more positive one, FlowersByIrene.

Really good signs from some of the younger guys at both levels.

Haha I cant wait. Will be up about 6pm AEST

 

[HBF]

Alot of positives, we the goals we give up from turnovers is a real concern. We've made so much progress this, be great to tidy up this part of our game. Oh, and move the ball quicker. Yesterday was tough to watch in the first 3 quarters.