Bill Shorten - how long?

[Taylor]

This conservative government seems determined to "keep it how it was in 1950".

That ignores a bit of inconvenient policy huh

 

[Taylor]

I got news for you - as petrol cars become the exception rather than the rule globally, economies of scale dictate that they will get more expensive. Providing the necessary infrastructure for electric cars is a sensible policy to ensure consumers in Australia have a choice. This is basically a policy of moving with the times. Look honestly if you want to know more just go back 12 months and look at what the Liberals were saying about electric cars then.

I'm talking about this side of the adoption, where we exist now and you're speaking about the time in the future when it's all adopted.

The discussion is how is the adoption encouraged in a society that loves it's cheap stuff with a government that likes to try and regulate behaviour by making less approved choices more expensive.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

That ignores a bit of inconvenient policy huh

To be fair, they are ignoring their own policy too

 

[Vader]

I'm talking about this side of the adoption, where we exist now and you're speaking about the time in the future when it's all adopted.

The discussion is how is the adoption encouraged in a society that loves it's cheap stuff with a government that likes to try and regulate behaviour by making less approved choices more expensive.

In the past, EVs have only really appealed to wealthy greenies. There are several reasons for this:

• They were very expensive, compared to the equivalent ICE;
• They suffered from having limited range - in a country with vast distances between population centres;
• They took a long time to re-charge;
• Lack of re-charging infrastructure.

So, what's changed (or changing) to make them more appealing to the general public?

Price
Until now, they were largely a developmental/experimental technology. The big manufacturers were happy to allow minor players, like Tesla, to do the legwork, while they sat back and waited for the technology to mature. Technology has now reached the point where the major manufacturers are regularly announcing plans for electric versions of their existing vehicles. With bigger manufacturers, building larger numbers of electric cars, the price will come down due to economies of scale. It is expected that EVs will be price competitive with equivalent ICE models by 2030.

It is expected that the Govt will also do it's bit to make them affordable, by making them exempt from some taxes - e.g. stamp duty. This would actually make them cheaper to buy than equivalent ICE models.

It is likely that public charging stations will allow free charging, at least during an introductory period (not unlike the way that LPG was previously taxed at a lower rate than petrol & diesel). EVs are already cheaper to run than ICEs, and this would widen that gap even further.

Limited Range
First generation EVs had a range of only around 200km. Tesla claims the Model S can do 594km between charges. It's not unlikely that EVs will be available in 2030 with ranges approaching 1000km.

Re-Charge Time
Bill Shorten was mocked for claiming that EVs could be charged in 8-10 minutes in 2030. It turns out that this time is already achievable in 2019. It's highly likely that charging times in 2030 will be down to 5 minutes or less, comparable with the time taken to fill a vehicle's petrol/diesel tank today.

Charging Infrastructure
Charging at home is the equivalent of adding a large air conditioner to a house. The current electricity network isn't up to having that much extra load added, particularly during the peak summer months.

However... the ALP has also announced $2000 rebates for home batteries. This would allow people with solar panels to store the energy they create during the day, using it to charge their cars at night. This would go some way towards alleviating the strain on the electricity grid.

For those who can't charge at home, the government can (and almost certainly will) pay for the construction of public rapid charging stations. As previously noted, these would be free to use (at least initially). They will still be cheaper to use (cents per km) than petrol & diesel, even after the initial free period inevitably ends.

Conclusion
By 2030, EVs are likely to be price competitive with ICEs, with similar ranges, similar re-charging times, and lower charging costs. There is every reason to think that Shorten's target of 50% will turn out to be conservative, not optimistic.

 

[Taylor]

With bigger manufacturers, building larger numbers of electric cars, the price will come down due to economies of scale. It is expected that EVs will be price competitive with equivalent ICE models by 2030.

Can we discuss how much of a car/vehicle price in Australia is pure fat profit or inefficiencies?

Current base models in Australia retail at $50,000 for Renault, Hyundai and Nissan. Can we expect that number to half in a market our size?

The Corolla is one of the highest number produced cars in the world and it's base model is, conservatively, $21,000.

 

[Pessimistic]

So the dream is that people drive around during the day then hook up their chargers overnight. This is the equivalent of turning on two airconditioners per car. Yeah I cant see our current third world power system struggling with that.

Third world? Scomo just told us what a great gob they are doing with everything

 

[Taylor]

Third world? Scomo just told us what a great gob they are doing with everything

State government runs the power here.

It's fairly typical business.

Customer (voters) want something, management (Federal gov) promise it to them, worker (state gov) has to deliver it.

 

[Vader]

Can we discuss how much of a car/vehicle price in Australia is pure fat profit or inefficiencies?

Current base models in Australia retail at $50,000 for Renault, Hyundai and Nissan. Can we expect that number to half in a market our size?

The Corolla is one of the highest number produced cars in the world and it's base model is, conservatively, $21,000.

In short, yes, we can expect to see those prices come down - in line with the pricing structures we'll see worldwide.

The total cost of ownership is already lower for EVs, compared to ICEs. Note that this includes both the purchase price and the running costs - the purchase price is currently higher, but the running costs make up for this over the life of the vehicle. In Norway the electric version of the Golf is 27% cheaper to run than the equivalent diesel version.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study

The Bloomberg New Energy Finance group, are predicting that EVs will be "price competitive on an unsubsidized basis starting in 2024", and will achieve "price parity in almost all segments" in 2029, "as battery prices continue to fall".
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

 

[QuietB]

Given that the government don't make cars what the hell does this issue have to do with government policy?

Asking for a friend

 

[Taylor]

The total cost of ownership is already lower for EVs, compared to ICEs.

I'm very pro the idea of electric cars, especially motorbikes, so don't take this cross examination style I'm using against you as anything but Dorothy dixers to explain your position.


But. Overall cost for a vehicle, for anything, is a luxury for the wealthy.

 

[Mofra]

I'm very pro the idea of electric cars, especially motorbikes, so don't take this cross examination style I'm using against you as anything but Dorothy dixers to explain your position.

But. Overall cost for a vehicle, for anything, is a luxury for the wealthy.

Not so sure about that last point - I know quite a few people who have bought 4 cylinder cars simply because they are cheaper to run. There's a reason the 'big Aussie sedan' was dying a slow death in this country.

 

[Mofra]

I think it’s a no brainer for business give discount charging to get the punters in.
Yes it will need a government stimulus early but it will quickly catch on.
I’d expect large car parks will have multiple charging stations being run by an attendant to systematically charge the cars whilst the owners are at work, shopping, flying, playing golf, getting a meal or what ever.
50kw of power at 25cents is $12 ...50cents a kilometre...

Loyalty points could be used to pay... options galore for smart operators.

And new business ideas.

https://www.motoring.com.au/australias-first-350kw-electric-charging-stations-confirmed-115248/

 

[Taylor]

Not so sure about that last point - I know quite a few people who have bought 4 cylinder cars simply because they are cheaper to run. There's a reason the 'big Aussie sedan' was dying a slow death in this country.

I know a lot of families that bought cars, clunkers by any description, because they were cheap up front - it's all they could afford.

If we are only going to have electric cars for middle income Australia and above that's fine.

 

[Vader]

Given that the government don't make cars what the hell does this issue have to do with government policy?

Asking for a friend

There are 3 major carbon emitters in the Australian economy - power generation, motor vehicles, and farm emissions. There's not a lot we can do to prevent cows from farting (methane is another greenhouse gas), so the first 2 are easier to address.

The ALP has announced that they'll be adopting the Libs' NEG policy, to reduce emissions from power generation. Increasing the uptake of EVs goes towards reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.

 

[Balls In]

Conclusion
By 2030, EVs are likely to be price competitive with ICEs, with similar ranges, similar re-charging times, and lower charging costs. There is every reason to think that Shorten's target of 50% will turn out to be conservative, not optimistic.

Cheap vehicles with a 1000km range that can be charged in 5-7 minutes from free charging stations littered all over the country! Rebated home battery storage (supplied by the sun) to prop up the whole system!! Why is Bill recoiling so fast from this miraculous policy?

 

[Vader]

I know a lot of families that bought cars, clunkers by any description, because they were cheap up front - it's all they could afford.

If we are only going to have electric cars for middle income Australia and above that's fine.

Like I said... they're cheaper to run (own & operate) now. By 2029 they will be cheaper to buy, with lower running costs being an added bonus.

 

[Vader]

Cheap vehicles with a 1000km range that can be charged in 5-7 minutes from free charging stations littered all over the country! Rebated home battery storage (supplied by the sun) to prop up the whole system!! Why is Bill recoiling so fast from this miraculous policy?

Welcome to what the future looks like, even if you yourself are stuck in the 1950s.

 

[QuietB]

There are 3 major carbon emitters in the Australian economy - power generation, motor vehicles, and farm emissions. There's not a lot we can do to prevent cows from farting (methane is another greenhouse gas), so the first 2 are easier to address.

The ALP has announced that they'll be adopting the Libs' NEG policy, to reduce emissions from power generation. Increasing the uptake of EVs goes towards reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.

But increasing the uptake of EV's is going to be 100% industry driven. Including recharging.

No amount of policy direction from Australia is going to influence what the big Japanese and European car manufacturers are going to do.

As usual both sides of politics are wasting a whole lot of time and effort on something that is politically irrelevant.

 

[Vader]

But increasing the uptake of EV's is going to be 100% industry driven. Including recharging.

No amount of policy direction from Australia is going to influence what the big Japanese and European car manufacturers are going to do.

As usual both sides of politics are wasting a whole lot of time and effort on something that is politically irrelevant.

Things they can do are reducing the taxes on EVs (e.g. no stamp duty on new car sales and vehicle registrations), and building recharging stations (even if they are then privately operated).

Australian policy won't change what the foreign manufacturers do. It can influence the rate of uptake by the Australian buyers.

 

[Taylor]

But increasing the uptake of EV's is going to be 100% industry driven. Including recharging.

No amount of policy direction from Australia is going to influence what the big Japanese and European car manufacturers are going to do.

As usual both sides of politics are wasting a whole lot of time and effort on something that is politically irrelevant.

Nothing that makes people think they are doing their part for the world with a mark of a pencil that gets someone elected is politically irrelevant.

It isn't about climate change being solved. It's about feeling like you're part of the solution.. Whenever that comes around.

 

[Pessimistic]

In the past, EVs have only really appealed to wealthy greenies. There are several reasons for this:

• They were very expensive, compared to the equivalent ICE;
• They suffered from having limited range - in a country with vast distances between population centres;
• They took a long time to re-charge;
• Lack of re-charging infrastructure.

So, what's changed (or changing) to make them more appealing to the general public?

Price
Until now, they were largely a developmental/experimental technology. The big manufacturers were happy to allow minor players, like Tesla, to do the legwork, while they sat back and waited for the technology to mature. Technology has now reached the point where the major manufacturers are regularly announcing plans for electric versions of their existing vehicles. With bigger manufacturers, building larger numbers of electric cars, the price will come down due to economies of scale. It is expected that EVs will be price competitive with equivalent ICE models by 2030.

It is expected that the Govt will also do it's bit to make them affordable, by making them exempt from some taxes - e.g. stamp duty. This would actually make them cheaper to buy than equivalent ICE models.

It is likely that public charging stations will allow free charging, at least during an introductory period (not unlike the way that LPG was previously taxed at a lower rate than petrol & diesel). EVs are already cheaper to run than ICEs, and this would widen that gap even further.

Limited Range
First generation EVs had a range of only around 200km. Tesla claims the Model S can do 594km between charges. It's not unlikely that EVs will be available in 2030 with ranges approaching 1000km.

Re-Charge Time
Bill Shorten was mocked for claiming that EVs could be charged in 8-10 minutes in 2030. It turns out that this time is already achievable in 2019. It's highly likely that charging times in 2030 will be down to 5 minutes or less, comparable with the time taken to fill a vehicle's petrol/diesel tank today.

Charging Infrastructure
Charging at home is the equivalent of adding a large air conditioner to a house. The current electricity network isn't up to having that much extra load added, particularly during the peak summer months.

However... the ALP has also announced $2000 rebates for home batteries. This would allow people with solar panels to store the energy they create during the day, using it to charge their cars at night. This would go some way towards alleviating the strain on the electricity grid.

For those who can't charge at home, the government can (and almost certainly will) pay for the construction of public rapid charging stations. As previously noted, these would be free to use (at least initially). They will still be cheaper to use (cents per km) than petrol & diesel, even after the initial free period inevitably ends.

Conclusion
By 2030, EVs are likely to be price competitive with ICEs, with similar ranges, similar re-charging times, and lower charging costs. There is every reason to think that Shorten's target of 50% will turn out to be conservative, not optimistic.

Effectively the grid will be re purposed or strengthened with commoditised batteries and other storage. Which sounds a lot cheaper than planned bespoke upgrades to transmission lines

 

[Taylor]

Effectively the grid will be re purposed or strengthened with commoditised batteries and other storage. Which sounds a lot cheaper than planned bespoke upgrades to transmission lines

And generation?

 

[Pessimistic]

I know a lot of families that bought cars, clunkers by any description, because they were cheap up front - it's all they could afford.

If we are only going to have electric cars for middle income Australia and above that's fine.

Could they mandate access to novated leases for every worker?

 

[Taylor]

Could they mandate access to novated leases for every worker?

I'd add in that the cars have to be built here if they did that

 

[Pessimistic]

And generation?

Batteries implies rooftop solar