Bluemour Discussion Thread IV

[Wickzki]

Lance Franklin Sydney 43
Joe Daniher Essendon 41
Jeremy Cameron GWS 41
Eddie Betts Adelaide 39
Ben Brown North Melbourne 38
Robbie Gray Port Adelaide 38
Taylor Walker Adelaide 37
Tom Hawkins Geelong 36
Jack Riewoldt Richmond 36
Tom Lynch Gold Coast 35
Joshua Kennedy West Coast 34
Orazio Fantasia Essendon 32
Jeff Garlett Melbourne 32
Charlie Dixon Port Adelaide 32
Jonathon Patton GWS 31

Let's look at the top ten teams on the ladder and their 195cm+ goal kicking forwards. This includes players in the current top 30 who didn't make your original list (you stopped at 15). I've also included Jesse Hogan who would be listed here if not for his health issues.

Adelaide - Jenkins (28y 5 m)
GWS - Cameron (24y 3m) / Patton (24 y 1m)
Geelong - Hawkins (28y 11m)
Port Adelaide - Dixon (26y 9m)
Melbourne - Hogan (22y 5m)
Richmond - Riewoldt (28y 8m)
St. Kilda - Bruce (25y 1m)
Sydney - Franklin (30y 5m)
Essendon - Daniher (23y 4m), Hooker (28y 9m)
West Coast - Kennedy (29y 10m)

What do I notice here? Only GWS and Essendon have more than one such player (leading goal kicker of 195cm+).

I look at the players ages. Most of these players are in their mid-to-late 20s. The exceptional young ones that stand out are Hogan (considered a generational talent), Daniher (similarly rated).

Of the twelve players who made the list (top 10 team (e.g. likelihood of finals in 2017) and top 30 goal scorers) only two of them have ever won a premiership medal. These two players are Buddy Franklin and Tom Hawkins. Both were members of dynasty teams (Hawthorn and Geelong repsectively). Both times Franklin was a goal scoring prodigy. In neither of the two years that Geelong won a premiership with Hawkins did he go close to scoring 2 goals a game (e.g. the average number of goals you've set your cut off at).

SO we can say except for the rarest of cases (Buddy Franklin) that most of these big bodied 195cm+ goal scorers need until their mid-twenties to develop AND that except in the rarest of cases teams only feature one of these types of forwards. Until evidence to the contrary neither of those teams has yet to win a premiership (GWS or Essendon with Daniher + Hooker).

Unless you have no confidence in Harry McKay then we've already got one of these players in development who was drafted in the top 10 of his draft class. If Weitering plays forward rather than back that makes two. If Charlie Curnow has grown even 1cm then that's 3. If Patrick Kerr has done the same then that's 4. Add in Ben Silvagni after next year and you have 5.

If you draft another you're likely waiting a further 4 or 5 years before they hit the point in their development where they're hopefully good enough to make this list.

At some point you need to realize that this type of recruiting strategy via the draft does not work. You become a Richmond. Griffiths, Elton, Vickery, Astbury even started as a swingman (5 goals his first year), Tom Derickx, Liam McBean, and more. Just to try and give Jack a second tall to work with.

Unless you get super lucky and draft a generational talent at or near the top of the draft or father-son rule which most of these players are you're best off recruiting one of them via trade or free agency (Jenkins, Kennedy, Bruce).

Ultimately, what this tells me is that we better get ready to buckle up and pay for Tom Lynch next year. Otherwise, we've already got the 195cm+ KPF on our list already (or in our sights). I think we do and his name is Harry (or Charlie) and if not then it's got to be Ben.

 

[The Facepainter]

If you want to keep the discussion relevant, my suggestion would be to stay on topic - BLUEMOURS!

They not listening

 

[Jimmae]

There's a fair bit of weight given to a players character by recruiters.

Fev went 38 in the draft, where would he go today? Britten wanted to delist him.

Just to round out this comparison (sorry Aph), Fev was taken as a 17 year old through a rule that allowed each club to select a kid a year earlier than they would otherwise be eligible.

Goodes was another who came through via this rule.

 

[gandaal]

Let's look at the top ten teams on the ladder and their 195cm+ goal kicking forwards. This includes players in the current top 30 who didn't make your original list (you stopped at 15). I've also included Jesse Hogan who would be listed here if not for his health issues.

Adelaide - Jenkins (28y 5 m)
GWS - Cameron (24y 3m) / Patton (24 y 1m)
Geelong - Hawkins (28y 11m)
Port Adelaide - Dixon (26y 9m)
Melbourne - Hogan (22y 5m)
Richmond - Riewoldt (28y 8m)
St. Kilda - Bruce (25y 1m)
Sydney - Franklin (30y 5m)
Essendon - Daniher (23y 4m), Hooker (28y 9m)
West Coast - Kennedy (29y 10m)

What do I notice here? Only GWS and Essendon have more than one such player (leading goal kicker of 195cm+).

I look at the players ages. Most of these players are in their mid-to-late 20s. The exceptional young ones that stand out are Hogan (considered a generational talent), Daniher (similarly rated).

Of the twelve players who made the list (top 10 team (e.g. likelihood of finals in 2017) and top 30 goal scorers) only two of them have ever won a premiership medal. These two players are Buddy Franklin and Tom Hawkins. Both were members of dynasty teams (Hawthorn and Geelong repsectively). Both times Franklin was a goal scoring prodigy. In neither of the two years that Geelong won a premiership with Hawkins did he go close to scoring 2 goals a game (e.g. the average number of goals you've set your cut off at).

SO we can say except for the rarest of cases (Buddy Franklin) that most of these big bodied 195cm+ goal scorers need until their mid-twenties to develop AND that except in the rarest of cases teams only feature one of these types of forwards. Until evidence to the contrary neither of those teams has yet to win a premiership (GWS or Essendon with Daniher + Hooker).

Unless you have no confidence in Harry McKay then we've already got one of these players in development who was drafted in the top 10 of his draft class. If Weitering plays forward rather than back that makes two. If Charlie Curnow has grown even 1cm then that's 3. If Patrick Kerr has done the same then that's 4. Add in Ben Silvagni after next year and you have 5.

If you draft another you're likely waiting a further 4 or 5 years before they hit the point in their development where they're hopefully good enough to make this list.

At some point you need to realize that this type of recruiting strategy via the draft does not work. You become a Richmond. Griffiths, Elton, Vickery, Astbury even started as a swingman (5 goals his first year), Tom Derickx, Liam McBean, and more. Just to try and give Jack a second tall to work with.

Unless you get super lucky and draft a generational talent at or near the top of the draft or father-son rule which most of these players are you're best off recruiting one of them via trade or free agency (Jenkins, Kennedy, Bruce).

Ultimately, what this tells me is that we better get ready to buckle up and pay for Tom Lynch next year. Otherwise, we've already got the 195cm+ KPF on our list already (or in our sights). I think we do and his name is Harry (or Charlie) and if not then it's got to be Ben.

Brilliant

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Let's look at the top ten teams on the ladder and their 195cm+ goal kicking forwards. This includes players in the current top 30 who didn't make your original list (you stopped at 15). I've also included Jesse Hogan who would be listed here if not for his health issues.

Adelaide - Jenkins (28y 5 m)
GWS - Cameron (24y 3m) / Patton (24 y 1m)
Geelong - Hawkins (28y 11m)
Port Adelaide - Dixon (26y 9m)
Melbourne - Hogan (22y 5m)
Richmond - Riewoldt (28y 8m)
St. Kilda - Bruce (25y 1m)
Sydney - Franklin (30y 5m)
Essendon - Daniher (23y 4m), Hooker (28y 9m)
West Coast - Kennedy (29y 10m)

What do I notice here? Only GWS and Essendon have more than one such player (leading goal kicker of 195cm+).

I look at the players ages. Most of these players are in their mid-to-late 20s. The exceptional young ones that stand out are Hogan (considered a generational talent), Daniher (similarly rated).

Of the twelve players who made the list (top 10 team (e.g. likelihood of finals in 2017) and top 30 goal scorers) only two of them have ever won a premiership medal. These two players are Buddy Franklin and Tom Hawkins. Both were members of dynasty teams (Hawthorn and Geelong repsectively). Both times Franklin was a goal scoring prodigy. In neither of the two years that Geelong won a premiership with Hawkins did he go close to scoring 2 goals a game (e.g. the average number of goals you've set your cut off at).

SO we can say except for the rarest of cases (Buddy Franklin) that most of these big bodied 195cm+ goal scorers need until their mid-twenties to develop AND that except in the rarest of cases teams only feature one of these types of forwards. Until evidence to the contrary neither of those teams has yet to win a premiership (GWS or Essendon with Daniher + Hooker).

Unless you have no confidence in Harry McKay then we've already got one of these players in development who was drafted in the top 10 of his draft class. If Weitering plays forward rather than back that makes two. If Charlie Curnow has grown even 1cm then that's 3. If Patrick Kerr has done the same then that's 4. Add in Ben Silvagni after next year and you have 5.

If you draft another you're likely waiting a further 4 or 5 years before they hit the point in their development where they're hopefully good enough to make this list.

At some point you need to realize that this type of recruiting strategy via the draft does not work. You become a Richmond. Griffiths, Elton, Vickery, Astbury even started as a swingman (5 goals his first year), Tom Derickx, Liam McBean, and more. Just to try and give Jack a second tall to work with.

Unless you get super lucky and draft a generational talent at or near the top of the draft or father-son rule which most of these players are you're best off recruiting one of them via trade or free agency (Jenkins, Kennedy, Bruce).

Ultimately, what this tells me is that we better get ready to buckle up and pay for Tom Lynch next year. Otherwise, we've already got the 195cm+ KPF on our list already (or in our sights). I think we do and his name is Harry (or Charlie) and if not then it's got to be Ben.

McKay will be a forward ruck in the same mold as Hale ect which virtually every priemership side has had. He will be second fiddle. Pretty much every premiership side has had two 195cm plus players who play forward. Just because they both aren't in the leading goal kickers doesn't mean anything.

 

[Arr0w]

Let's look at the top ten teams on the ladder and their 195cm+ goal kicking forwards. This includes players in the current top 30 who didn't make your original list (you stopped at 15). I've also included Jesse Hogan who would be listed here if not for his health issues.

Adelaide - Jenkins (28y 5 m)
GWS - Cameron (24y 3m) / Patton (24 y 1m)
Geelong - Hawkins (28y 11m)
Port Adelaide - Dixon (26y 9m)
Melbourne - Hogan (22y 5m)
Richmond - Riewoldt (28y 8m)
St. Kilda - Bruce (25y 1m)
Sydney - Franklin (30y 5m)
Essendon - Daniher (23y 4m), Hooker (28y 9m)
West Coast - Kennedy (29y 10m)

What do I notice here? Only GWS and Essendon have more than one such player (leading goal kicker of 195cm+).

I look at the players ages. Most of these players are in their mid-to-late 20s. The exceptional young ones that stand out are Hogan (considered a generational talent), Daniher (similarly rated).

Of the twelve players who made the list (top 10 team (e.g. likelihood of finals in 2017) and top 30 goal scorers) only two of them have ever won a premiership medal. These two players are Buddy Franklin and Tom Hawkins. Both were members of dynasty teams (Hawthorn and Geelong repsectively). Both times Franklin was a goal scoring prodigy. In neither of the two years that Geelong won a premiership with Hawkins did he go close to scoring 2 goals a game (e.g. the average number of goals you've set your cut off at).

SO we can say except for the rarest of cases (Buddy Franklin) that most of these big bodied 195cm+ goal scorers need until their mid-twenties to develop AND that except in the rarest of cases teams only feature one of these types of forwards. Until evidence to the contrary neither of those teams has yet to win a premiership (GWS or Essendon with Daniher + Hooker).

Unless you have no confidence in Harry McKay then we've already got one of these players in development who was drafted in the top 10 of his draft class. If Weitering plays forward rather than back that makes two. If Charlie Curnow has grown even 1cm then that's 3. If Patrick Kerr has done the same then that's 4. Add in Ben Silvagni after next year and you have 5.

If you draft another you're likely waiting a further 4 or 5 years before they hit the point in their development where they're hopefully good enough to make this list.

At some point you need to realize that this type of recruiting strategy via the draft does not work. You become a Richmond. Griffiths, Elton, Vickery, Astbury even started as a swingman (5 goals his first year), Tom Derickx, Liam McBean, and more. Just to try and give Jack a second tall to work with.

Unless you get super lucky and draft a generational talent at or near the top of the draft or father-son rule which most of these players are you're best off recruiting one of them via trade or free agency (Jenkins, Kennedy, Bruce).

Ultimately, what this tells me is that we better get ready to buckle up and pay for Tom Lynch next year. Otherwise, we've already got the 195cm+ KPF on our list already (or in our sights). I think we do and his name is Harry (or Charlie) and if not then it's got to be Ben.

To me it just highlights that you need to spend an early pick if you want a talented KPF, or else it is a lottery. All of the guys in the list i posted are 1st round picks, except for Ben Brown (Hawkins & Daniher would have been 1st rounders in an open market)

It is never about 1 KPF, it is about the structure of the forward group. Essendon have Daniher, Hooker and Stewart, playing in the same forward line, with 3 pressure smalls, which sees to be working well. Other examples, also work well, which I am sure you are aware.

I do have great confidence in McKay, while the progress of Kerr will be interesting.

Your post also highlights what we already know, that KPP take longer than midfielders to develop to their full potential. Even if we all thought that we were set for KPP, you need to continue adding and balancing your list every year, as injuries, lack of development, departures all affect that balance.

The strategy of drafting KPF, is crucial, as trading for an elite forward is very difficult, as per one of my previous posts. Less than 4% of player moments were rated VG or better KPF of the 168 players that changed clubs in the last 4 years.

Looking forward to the trade/draft period!

 

[Weiterbot23]

Just to round out this comparison (sorry Aph), Fev was taken as a 17 year old through a rule that allowed each club to select a kid a year earlier than they would otherwise be eligible.

Goodes was another who came through via this rule.

That pick 38 still lives on

-Fev
-Hendo
-Charlie Curnow

 

[Mr_Plow]

That pick 38 still lives on

-Fev
-Hendo
-Charlie Curnow

McKay, not Charlie.

Hendo was flipped for Geelong's future first, which was then flipped in the GWS4 trade for pick 8, which was used on McKay.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Just back from Adelaide Oval. Norfs are hopeless. Can't see Scott being there too much longer. Why would Kelly want to go to that rabble?

 

[bluebrew]

And returning to Bluemours Carlton will have 3 first round picks this year

 

[passmark]

And returning to Bluemours Carlton will have 3 first round picks this year

I can see two (ladder position and Gibbs trade) where's the third?

 

[The Flying Doormat]

And returning to Bluemours Carlton will have 3 first round picks this year

 

[AB_Blue]

And returning to Bluemours Carlton will have 3 first round picks this year

2 for Gibbs?

 

[Blue and Silver]

Trade 3 down for 2 later picks and trade Gibbs?

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Let's look at the top ten teams on the ladder and their 195cm+ goal kicking forwards. This includes players in the current top 30 who didn't make your original list (you stopped at 15). I've also included Jesse Hogan who would be listed here if not for his health issues.

Adelaide - Jenkins (28y 5 m)
GWS - Cameron (24y 3m) / Patton (24 y 1m)
Geelong - Hawkins (28y 11m)
Port Adelaide - Dixon (26y 9m)
Melbourne - Hogan (22y 5m)
Richmond - Riewoldt (28y 8m)
St. Kilda - Bruce (25y 1m)
Sydney - Franklin (30y 5m)
Essendon - Daniher (23y 4m), Hooker (28y 9m)
West Coast - Kennedy (29y 10m)

What do I notice here? Only GWS and Essendon have more than one such player (leading goal kicker of 195cm+).

I look at the players ages. Most of these players are in their mid-to-late 20s. The exceptional young ones that stand out are Hogan (considered a generational talent), Daniher (similarly rated).

Of the twelve players who made the list (top 10 team (e.g. likelihood of finals in 2017) and top 30 goal scorers) only two of them have ever won a premiership medal. These two players are Buddy Franklin and Tom Hawkins. Both were members of dynasty teams (Hawthorn and Geelong repsectively). Both times Franklin was a goal scoring prodigy. In neither of the two years that Geelong won a premiership with Hawkins did he go close to scoring 2 goals a game (e.g. the average number of goals you've set your cut off at).

SO we can say except for the rarest of cases (Buddy Franklin) that most of these big bodied 195cm+ goal scorers need until their mid-twenties to develop AND that except in the rarest of cases teams only feature one of these types of forwards. Until evidence to the contrary neither of those teams has yet to win a premiership (GWS or Essendon with Daniher + Hooker).

Unless you have no confidence in Harry McKay then we've already got one of these players in development who was drafted in the top 10 of his draft class. If Weitering plays forward rather than back that makes two. If Charlie Curnow has grown even 1cm then that's 3. If Patrick Kerr has done the same then that's 4. Add in Ben Silvagni after next year and you have 5.

If you draft another you're likely waiting a further 4 or 5 years before they hit the point in their development where they're hopefully good enough to make this list.

At some point you need to realize that this type of recruiting strategy via the draft does not work. You become a Richmond. Griffiths, Elton, Vickery, Astbury even started as a swingman (5 goals his first year), Tom Derickx, Liam McBean, and more. Just to try and give Jack a second tall to work with.

Unless you get super lucky and draft a generational talent at or near the top of the draft or father-son rule which most of these players are you're best off recruiting one of them via trade or free agency (Jenkins, Kennedy, Bruce).

Ultimately, what this tells me is that we better get ready to buckle up and pay for Tom Lynch next year. Otherwise, we've already got the 195cm+ KPF on our list already (or in our sights). I think we do and his name is Harry (or Charlie) and if not then it's got to be Ben.

Not to mention, Geelong's 198cm log did bugger all today and it was their 189cm midfielder who played full forward and kicked 5 goals but from 11 scoring shots. ELEVEN shots at goal for a guy most consider to be a relative midget in modern forward lines right? Oh and 190cm Menzel got 3. 198cm Hawkins ZERO.

Charlie doesn't have to grow, at 194cm that's more than enough height, the main thing is if he has the talent and by the looks of it, he does. Jack has also been very good. All we need is for one of Harry, Kerr or Ben to make it and we're set with our 3 talls.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

McKay will be a forward ruck in the same mold as Hale ect which virtually every priemership side has had. He will be second fiddle. Pretty much every premiership side has had two 195cm plus players who play forward. Just because they both aren't in the leading goal kickers doesn't mean anything.

Ok, can you name them? Let's go with the last 10 years.

 

[HARKER]

Ok, can you name them? Let's go with the last 10 years.

There are no right or wrong ways to go about it.
It's about getting it right for the squad at the time.

SOS does love his KPF's though and we can bank on one coming on in '18

 

[HBF]

Trade 3 down for 2 later picks and trade Gibbs?

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

We could.
Especially in this years draft.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

There are no right or wrong ways to go about it.
It's about getting it right for the squad at the time.

SOS does love his KPF's though and we can bank on one coming on in '18

We might go after Lynch, but even if we don't, we still have a few younger ones. Harry, Kerr and Ben. Surely one of them will make it as a decent AFL footballer. Charlie is on the path to becoming an elite forward and Weitering is an option as well.

 

[Arr0w]

Find it strange with the lack of depth we have, probably the worst in the competition, people want the club to do Judd like trades. People still don't have the patience for this rebuild, it really is the smell of the old Carlton.

SOS will be aggressive during the next couple of trade/draft periods, he won't be reckless, thinking we are one player away.

 

[Arr0w]

Not to mention, Geelong's 198cm log did bugger all today and it was their 189cm midfielder who played full forward and kicked 5 goals but from 11 scoring shots. ELEVEN shots at goal for a guy most consider to be a relative midget in modern forward lines right? Oh and 190cm Menzel got 3. 198cm Hawkins ZERO.

Charlie doesn't have to grow, at 194cm that's more than enough height, the main thing is if he has the talent and by the looks of it, he does. Jack has also been very good. All we need is for one of Harry, Kerr or Ben to make it and we're set with our 3 talls.

I guess you didn't notice Daniher kicking 4 or perhaps, Reid and Moore combining for 5 goals. Perhaps being more balanced would be more appropriate, rather than being so selective.

And you if you think the only value KPFs have is purely kicking goals, perhaps we just design a forward line of short people

 

[Weiterbot23]

McKay, not Charlie.

Hendo was flipped for Geelong's future first, which was then flipped in the GWS4 trade for pick 8, which was used on McKay.

Fair

 

[HBF]

Can we move the KPF forward debate to this list management thread? Does it really need to be in here.

 

[Unknown Origin]

Find it strange with the lack of depth we have, probably the worst in the competition, people want the club to do Judd like trades. People still don't have the patience for this rebuild, it really is the smell of the old Carlton.

Will SOS will be aggressive during the next couple of trade/draft periods, he won't be reckless, thinking we are one player away.

One thing is for certain, we will be bottom 3 next year.......again

 

[Mr_Plow]

Fair

SOS has done some complicated things so far.

He'll need to do a lot more to get this list in premiership contention.