Bluemour Discussion Thread VI (cont. in Part VII)

[MileHigh]

I don't think we will be picking him up.

If that trade comes off SOS is Jesus

 

[Soapy V]

I'm always amazed when such complicated deals are done way before trade week. [emoji849]


Yet NEVER eventuate

 

[BlueTongue]

I tend to think it is a nice story, plausible, but still a story. But the fact that it is a house of cards doesnt make it unlikely. In fact I think it is these sorts of scenarios that makes SOS and other recruiters worth their salary- this is the sort of thing they engineer to make sure that everyone is getting what they want. Better to plan for a trade ahead of time and work your way into a good position, than wait for the chips to fall and be blindsided and make panicked errors. Betty certainly has done his homework and given us plenty to mull over. Something like a thousand monkeys and a thousand typewriters.... putting us to work, to work out the flaws

The whole deal hinges on Adelaide coming to the party - twice - for deals they would be less than happy to do.
Give up Lever, then give up pick 10 (if Melbourne would part with it for lever) for Gibbs.
If they go on to win a premiership without Gibbs, then it will become even less likely.
If we keep Gibbs, we Wont be paying 2 mil for Rockliff and we won't get Kelly unless we can secure another decent Pick elsewhere.

100% wont happen that way.

 

[BlueTongue]

As long as the course of events play out in a certain order, so we don't get burnt

1. Wait for the Lever deal to Melbourne
2. Gibbs traded for Pick 10
3. Deal with Brisbane - Gain 1, 18 and Schache - Lose 3, 10, 38
4. Kelly + Kennedy

If things go astray after the 3rd deal, we go to the draft with 1, 18, while securing Schache.

1 & 2 the most unlikely though.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I can't believe people are even half thinking this is true. If the Lions were that desperate to offload Schache, they could could get one of Saint Kildas first rounders in a heart beat, which is miles better than pick 18 and a down grade from 1 to 3

 

[HARKER]

What the hell?

Oh I get it, sarcasm

Play it out from one step to another and the fit is very neat.
If we are being trolled, it's at least an intelligent troll, but I'll bet we're not.

The bigger picture fits and even if this isn't right, something along those lines may well be.

 

[TerryWallet]

What the hell?

Oh I get it, sarcasm

Everyone wants to play for Carlton. They just do. They'll all choose us.

Won't they?

 

[HARKER]

I can't believe people are even half thinking this is true. If the Lions were that desperate to offload Schache, they could could get one of Saint Kildas first rounders in a heart beat, which is miles better than pick 18 and a down grade from 1 to 3

You see. You didn't read it all. Play it out all the way and if it's without foundation, so be it........but it is clever.

 

[Gingerbread man]

Think Vickery

Yes but this is next level

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

You see. You didn't read it all. Play it out all the way and if it's without foundation, so be it........but it is clever.

Saints would also love Rockliff and would pay overs to get Schache at a discount

 

[Arr0w]

Yes but this is next level

So is Rocky and the new TPP

 

[Iamcarlton]

As long as the course of events play out in a certain order, so we don't get burnt

1. Wait for the Lever deal to Melbourne
2. Gibbs traded for Pick 10
3. Deal with Brisbane - Gain 1, 18 and Schache - Lose 3, 10, 38
4. Kelly + Kennedy

If things go astray after the 3rd deal, we go to the draft with 1, 18, while securing Schache.

Love it except for the Schaeche bit...

 

[Azul]

I can't believe people are even half thinking this is true. If the Lions were that desperate to offload Schache, they could could get one of Saint Kildas first rounders in a heart beat, which is miles better than pick 18 and a down grade from 1 to 3

Read again.

OP is saying we rig the free agency so that Brissie have picks 1 and 2.

We swap 3 with 1, so they end up with 2 and 3.

 

[HARKER]

Saints would also love Rockliff and would pay overs to get Schache at a discount

I'm not saying that the rumour is right, because I just don't know. I do though know it's very well constructed and I'm impressed by the detail.

We have another ten weeks to be drawing swords. Don't stab me just yet.

 

[Arr0w]

1 & 2 the most unlikely though.

Lever not worth at least pick 10? In a heartbeat

The 2nd scenario will be determined depending where the Crows finish, miss the GF and or a flag and Gibbs is worth pick 10 to them

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Th AFL would hit us with a hammer for draft tampering anyway

 

[Azul]

Read again.

OP is saying we rig the free agency so that Brissie have picks 1 and 2.

We swap 3 with 1, so they end up with 2 and 3.

edit: or rather 2 and 4, since the other QLD team have the pick b4 us

 

[Azul]

Th AFL would hit us with a hammer for draft tampering anyway

Not if they arrange it.

We won't give you a priority pick this year but you can have 2 picks in the top 4.

 

[blueblooded]

Posted in Blue Rumour thread and realise credibility is zero as a newb but I am very confident in the source:

Proposal is:

1. Carlton trade Bryce Gibbs to Crows for the pick they get for Lever (must be below 12). Most likely Dees pick 10.

Why? - best we will get and the view is Bryce asking to leave again and coming back isn't good for the group. Also part of a wider deal. Problem is if Pies get Lever for pick 6 Crows won't want to give this up without something back. However, we believe Lever wants the Dees.

2. Carlton acquire Rockliff for 2 years at $2m with an option for a third year at $400k. Because the option is conditional the AFL bases compensation on a guaranteed two years - so $1m per year figure. This triggers band 1 compensation for the Lions so they get pick 2. Other suitors are offering Rockliff max $700k, which is not enough to trigger band 1.

3. Carlton trades pick 3, pick 10 (or thereabouts - Crows been told must be pick below 12) from Bryce Gibbs and our third round pick for pick 1, pick 18 and Schache. Lions may also be interested in a player such as Byrne to sweeten the deal.

Why do this trade - helps with Kelly (will explain below), plus gets Rockliff in for support and gets Schache at a discount. Schache is viewed as suffering from being away from family and the belief is he can become a 40+ goal a year FF in Victoria. Lions don't want Rayner but the Suns rate him so won't slip to us at 3. GWS want him and want pick 1 to make sure they get him. Lions value Dow more highly so going from pick 1 to 2 is fine by them. Effectively swapping Schache and 18 for pick 10 and 38. Lions rate the top 10 highly so believe they can add another good mid at 10 (plus have Ports pick - view is 3 good mids to add to the mix).

We will not get Lynch from Gold Coast next year. He will most likely sign with them depending on the new coach and how things look in June next year. Pies have tabled a $1.5m 5 year deal and his family are massive Pie fans but looks more likely to stay at GC. Will not play for Carlton forget it. So we see Schache as a hedge against McKay not coming on. The bank is at least one of those two will become a gun.

4. Carlton trade pick 1 and pick 18 for Kelly, Kennedy and a salary dump.

Why? GWS wants Rayner and will only let Kelly go if they are guaranteed Rayner. They value pick 1 very highly. Kelly wants us the only spanner is a large offer from Essendon, but very likely to knock this back. Our whole strategy hinges on Kelly going to us. We believe this is 75% likely. The salary dump is a huge issue for GWS and they need the cap relief.

NET RESULT -

Out: pick 3, Gibbs, pick 38

In: Kelly, Rockliff, Kennedy, Schache

The age composition of our mids is lowered with Kelly/Kennedy and Rockliff a similar age to Gibbs. Schache is valuable insurance for a KPF.

We don't have a pick this year until the fourth round but will take 3 picks at the end of the draft and get some delisted free agents. With the investment in the last two drafts and the desire to trade heavily into the 2018 draft with 2019 picks, we don't see this as a huge issue. There is also scope for the Suns to offer up 2nd/3rd round picks for players.

This is the desired blueprint for the Blues and what SOS believes is realistic. There are other options (Stringer for 2018 2nd but dogs likely to say no even if we take a salary dump) and embracing trading Gibbs plus some others for top 40 picks.

Would have to be the biggest trade of all time if it comes off, absolutely makes sense for all parties.

GWS get compensated for losing Kelly with Pick 1 (Rayner)

We get fair compo for Gibbs which allows us to get the balance of the trade done.

Brisbane get band 1 compo for Rockliff and schache and two picks in the top 2.

We get Kelly, Kennedy and Rockliff!

SOS would make off like an absolute bandit if he got this done and whatever he makes now I'd be doubling it!

 

[agro]

Th AFL would hit us with a hammer for draft tampering anyway

Not if we engaged in an illegal off-site performance enhancing drug program.

 

[Arr0w]

Love it except for the Schaeche bit...

I still rate him, I think if all facets of the rumour comes to fruition, Schache is a steal

 

[My name geoff]

I know that Cripps doesn't shut up about Rockliff when we play Brisbane. Seems a huge fan of his work.

 

[CFC_#17]

Read again.

OP is saying we rig the free agency so that Brissie have picks 1 and 2.

We swap 3 with 1, so they end up with 2 and 3.

A slight correction it will pick 4 not 3 if Brisbane get a compensation pick.

 

[Funk]

I'm feeling the same way, but just wondering whether I'm simply conditioning myself to do so. Not sure.
Fact is we don't know what's happening, as so far we've had 95% coming and 95% not coming. Maybe just the manager playing games.

Have no fear going to the draft with pick #3, as long as we can get Kennedy with something relatively small.
Then there would be no selling off next years first either. Not the worst position to be in right now.

I'm confused Harks.

SOS has consistently "pulled rabbits out of hats".

It seems that most of our currency is now contracted.

Am not sure what his game plan is- but I'm sure he's got one!!!

 

[TerryWallet]

The made up scenario has 4 topline players all choosing to play for Carlton. We'll be lucky to secure 1.

This thread always assumes that every AFL player wants to play for Carlton as much as Calton fans do.

Then there's Adelaide agreeing to trade Pick 10 for a year older Gibbs after M.Crouch just elevated to AA and they're faves to win the flag.