Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

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HyphensBack

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A w@nker small forward that everyone hates is vital for success

We all loved Wright, but an honest footballer is not what you want, you want an arrogant fl0g who believes he can kick a goal from anywhere.
I tend to agree with the sentiment but with a couple of variations......
I would prefer an arrogant small forward who can kick goals from anywhere (flog not so much and everyone only puts up with "hungry" if they can kick em)
 

La Dispute

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Smith and Rankine for Walsh is very tempting , a crystal ball would be handy right now. You’d hate to do a Melbourne and trade Kelly for Salem and Tyson.
I’ve seen this comparison crop up a few times and I just don’t see it.

That trade was more about bringing Tyson to the club with the added bonus of retaining a first round draft selection. Tyson showed glimpses at GWS, but wasn’t seen as a future star. He was however a former top pick so at worst he’d be a very solid contributor in a rebuilding team.

What we’re proposing is leveraging Gold Coast’s need for a surefire gun who’s less likely to request a trade home after his first contract. The top end of this draft is reasonably even, with so many differing options for the first few picks, and all would add a different component to our team.

As I’ve said ad nauseum it’s remarkable how bullish some are about taking Walsh when he’s got several players ahead of him for talent in a strong draft pool. Yes the intangibles are good, but they shouldn’t narrow our line of thinking with so many potential gun players comprising the top end of this draft.

Rankine has Top 5 league player all over him if a club can bring out his potential.
 

I bleed Blue

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Pick 1 for 3 and 6?

If we were offered that we should take it.

Lets go back the last 15 years and have a look at pick 1 vs pick 3&6

2017: Rayner vs Dow & Stephenson
2016: McGrath vs Mcluggage & SPS
2015: Weitering vs Mills (academy pick.. Oliver was pick 4) & Francis
2014: McCartin vs A.Brayshaw & Marchbank
2013: Boyd vs Billings & Scharenburg
2012: Whitfield vs Plowman & Mcrae
2011: Patten vs Tyson & Wingard
2010: D.Swallow vs Sam Day & Conca
2009: Scully vs D.Martin & Rohan
2008: Watts vs S.Hill & Yarra
2007: Kruezer vs masten & Myers
2006: Gibbs vs Hansen & Thorp
2005: Murphy vs X.ellis & Dowler
2004: Deledio vs Griffen & T.Williams
2003: Cooney vs Sylvia & Kepler Bradley


To me picks 3&6 combined win in most years.

Pick 1 wins in maybe 2003, 2005, 2006.

Also none of the above pick 1s turned out to be the best of their draft class (jury out on a the more recent years)

The deal is offered we take it and going off history we should win.
 

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slashin_velvet

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Pick 1 for 3 and 6?

If we were offered that we should take it.

Lets go back the last 15 years and have a look at pick 1 vs pick 3&6

2017: Rayner vs Dow & Stephenson
2016: McGrath vs Mcluggage & SPS
2015: Weitering vs Mills (academy pick.. Oliver was pick 4) & Francis
2014: McCartin vs A.Brayshaw & Marchbank
2013: Boyd vs Billings & Scharenburg
2012: Whitfield vs Plowman & Mcrae
2011: Patten vs Tyson & Wingard
2010: D.Swallow vs Sam Day & Conca
2009: Scully vs D.Martin & Rohan
2008: Watts vs S.Hill & Yarra
2007: Kruezer vs masten & Myers
2006: Gibbs vs Hansen & Thorp
2005: Murphy vs X.ellis & Dowler
2004: Deledio vs Griffen & T.Williams
2003: Cooney vs Sylvia & Kepler Bradley


To me picks 3&6 combined win in most years.

Pick 1 wins in maybe 2003, 2005, 2006.

Also none of the above pick 1s turned out to be the best of their draft class (jury out on a the more recent years)

The deal is offered we take it and going off history we should win.
Interestingly, when we have had pick 1, it's been better than 3&6 (excluding weeters draft as it's too early to make a call).
 

cfc4life

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Lets play a game called "what if"...

What if i told you Kelly and Coniglio will be playing in our round 1 side in 2020?

22 games more for the kids this year.

Potential midfield:
Cripps
Kelly
Coniglio
Dow
Fisher
Murphy
SPS
LOB
Setterfield
Kennedy
Etc

Now missing on Walsh and adding Lukosius and Rozee - whats your thoughts?
The likelihood of getting Kelly and Coniglio is about 0.001%. If we manage to get one it would be amazing, but based on actual list assets it looks like this.

Cripps
Dow- a kid
Fisher- yep
Murphy- gone in a year or so
SPS- yep
LOB- also a kid
Setterfield- played 2 games, only potential to go off of
Kennedy- if he can get on the park, great addition

That's an incredibly thin midfield.

If we weren't crying out for a gun mid I'd be more than happy to do the trade.
 
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Pick 1 for 3 and 6?

If we were offered that we should take it.

Lets go back the last 15 years and have a look at pick 1 vs pick 3&6

2017: Rayner vs Dow & Stephenson
2016: McGrath vs Mcluggage & SPS
2015: Weitering vs Mills (academy pick.. Oliver was pick 4) & Francis
2014: McCartin vs A.Brayshaw & Marchbank
2013: Boyd vs Billings & Scharenburg
2012: Whitfield vs Plowman & Mcrae
2011: Patten vs Tyson & Wingard
2010: D.Swallow vs Sam Day & Conca
2009: Scully vs D.Martin & Rohan
2008: Watts vs S.Hill & Yarra
2007: Kruezer vs masten & Myers
2006: Gibbs vs Hansen & Thorp
2005: Murphy vs X.ellis & Dowler
2004: Deledio vs Griffen & T.Williams
2003: Cooney vs Sylvia & Kepler Bradley


To me picks 3&6 combined win in most years.

Pick 1 wins in maybe 2003, 2005, 2006.

Also none of the above pick 1s turned out to be the best of their draft class (jury out on a the more recent years)

The deal is offered we take it and going off history we should win.
Interesting, but I’m glad we didn’t do it in 2005/6/7.
 

SkyhorseTamer

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Rankine has Top 5 league player all over him if a club can bring out his potential.
Yes but I’m so cautious of this. Rarely the most talented kid in the draft is the best, especially the ones that play that goal kicking and exciting role... Wingard, j Martin, billings, I’m sure there are others, but this is only a quick discussion point being put forward. I’m probably more wary of rankine than most. He looks incredible in spots but consistency is the key to success and he’s just not consistent at all. I cant tell if his attitude will translate to the Afl, it’s much easier to see Smith and Walsh’s work ethic and attitude translate to long careers.

2 questions that are important when evaluating talent, Ive heard scouts across multiple sports use this.

How does he handle losing? Does he sulk, does he get back up, what’s his response to a set back like a serious injury etc etc.

How does he handle winning? Does it go to his head etc.

I’m not confident on those two answers for rankine. I am for Walsh and Smith.
 
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Moderator #3,021
The likelihood of getting Kelly and Coniglio is about 0.001%. If we manage to get one it would be amazing, but based on actual list assets it looks like this.

Cripps
Dow- a kid
Fisher- yep
Murphy- gone in a year or so
SPS- yep
LOB- also a kid
Setterfield- played 2 games, only potential to go off of
Kennedy- if he can get on the park, great addition

That's an incredibly thin midfield.

If we weren't crying out for a gun mid I'd be more than happy to do the trade.
True. It is thin especially if Setterfield doesn't come on, but you've downplayed Dow and O'Brien because they are kids to advocate for getting someone a year younger.
 

La Dispute

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Yes but I’m so cautious of this. Rarely the most talented kid in the draft is the best, especially the ones that play that goal kicking and exciting role... Wingard, j Martin, billings...
You can add Petracca and DeGoey into that group.

I’d be happy to grab one of these types in addition to a safer selection in Smith, who I rate higher than Walsh anyway.
 

Lace_Out

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You can add Petracca and DeGoey into that group.

I’d be happy to grab one of these types in addition to a safer selection in Smith, who I rate higher than Walsh anyway.
How is Smith a safer option to Walsh who has clearly been more consistent and won almost everything?
 

La Dispute

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How is Smith a safer option to Walsh who has been more consistent?
Walsh is only a marginally safer selection IMO. Both project to be good AFL footballers with very little risk attached. Given this, we can opt for a riskier selection with the second pick.
 

cfc4life

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True. It is thin especially if Setterfield doesn't come on, but you've downplayed Dow and O'Brien because they are kids to advocate for getting someone a year younger.
I was moreso saying they're kids to show that we don't have a front line midfield, I don't want to have to rely on them in their second and third years to lead the team. I guess if we actually picked up some experienced mids in the trade period I would be more open to trading pick 1.
 
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