Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

[bmaurizio]

Exactly.

Why not take the risk this year? Trade down via GC. Rankine plus change. Change = improved depth, improved reserves performance, improved trade collateral for next year.

Walsh looks a gem. But I'd be open to offers.

Agree it’s this year or next that we can punge dangerously and with Lukosius and Rankine available next week we’d be crazy not to take consider one. Best tall and small in a decade has been repeated at infinitum by casual observers and experts alike.
In Silvagni Agresta & Brodie we trust.

 

[bmaurizio]

I think Lang has ability and could be a very good player but at 23 years old and 55 games he needs to start showing it. Injury concerns last year but needs a pre season and then a good season. If he steps up we will be even better but doesn't deserve the same latitude give to the younger players

I think apart from retirements, Cuningham , Lang ,Garlett, Pickett and Phillips, Casboult Jones will come under heavy scrutiny we just can’t carry passengers for ever. Russell will give an effective assessment by seasons end.

 

[Jimmae]

Might be, was supposed to be a pisstake though.

 

[Opine]

I think Lang has ability and could be a very good player but at 23 years old and 55 games he needs to start showing it. Injury concerns last year but needs a pre season and then a good season. If he steps up we will be even better but doesn't deserve the same latitude give to the younger players

Im gonna get bashed for saying this, but here goes. Like many others, I think he will do well in a well led side with clear expectations. Our leadership has been lacking in that sense for a long long while. That will change with Crippa and Doc at the helm.

 

[Kernafides]

Lang is just a nothing player....he is 23...not overly quick, not overly skillful, zero work ethic and no appetite for the contest.....an injury free preseason won't change that

 

[SirSanchez]

One of the few occasions i actually like hearing what he has to say! (Sam McClure)

 

[Soapy V]

Lang is just a nothing player....he is 23...not overly quick, not overly skillful, zero work ethic and no appetite for the contest.....an injury free preseason won't change that

Did we just lose?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Congratulating you for not basing your thoughts on him going to GC - which is all well and good but not really relevant to the conversation. If you have specific knowledge of something that would indicate Rankine is a significant flight risk for any non-SA club, please share it. Otherwise, my point stands - the flight risk talk is exacerbated by the assumption that he's in the frame for a GC selection, GC have documented troubles with retaining interstate players for more than a couple of years, and the SA teams have publically stated they're happy to try and lure SA players back home in the years following their draft.

You may be right. But to say that SOS will back himself to pick the best player, and therefore won't trade down, is a very simplistic view to take.

If Walsh is a clear number one on our board, I imagine we'll stay at 1 and take him.
If it's Lukosius, we'll probably explore options for trading down to Pick 2 (maybe getting a single second round pick back, or upgrading a future third).
If it's Rankine, Pick 3 is the one to target, hopefully with a couple of seconds, or a significant pick upgrade next year.

If we can get a player we rank at number 1 with Pick 2 or 3, and trading down to that pick nets us an additional pick or two, it's to the benefit of the club to do the trade.

If a better deal is on the table, no worries, but I'd rather 3 and 24 than 8 and 13, and I suspect the club would too.

Sometimes the simplistic view is often the right view. SOS and team will draft Walsh and won't go after a mediocre deal like 3 and 24 or so

 

[jj1978]

Unless GC are factoring leadership and low flight risk into the equation more than anyone else

Flight risk... a lot of people at 17-18 are young, want to get some new experiences and wouldn't mind moving interstate (one of my early jobs had a lot of travelling and I thought it was ace... once married loathed travelling)... but once they get a little older, settle down and miss being able to have a coffee with mates and family ideals change. Look at so many recent examples - Gibbs (I love Carlton will play for life), Schache (wants to play for Brisbane due to his dad), Judd, Shiel, etc etc.
Also dump a kid with high work ethic and desire into the GC where he'll play in front of 16 people every second week and then every other 30K+ back in Melbourne and ideals and perceptions change.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Sometimes the simplistic view is often the right view. SOS and team will draft Walsh and won't go after a mediocre deal like 3 and 24 or so

Simplistic is always good.

Doesn't make it right

To be as clear and concise as possible - if we rate Walsh the standout player, we should and will absolutely take Pick 1 to the draft and leave it at that. If we have Walsh on par with Lukosius and/or Rankine, trading down to 3 and change is essentially creating draft picks out of nothing, and should absolutely be done even if the deal isn't a "godfather" offer.

While we're here though - you still haven't provided any clarification on your firm belief that Rankine will run back to SA as soon as he possibly can.

 

[dlb99]

Flight risk... a lot of people at 17-18 are young, want to get some new experiences and wouldn't mind moving interstate (one of my early jobs had a lot of travelling and I thought it was ace... once married loathed travelling)... but once they get a little older, settle down and miss being able to have a coffee with mates and family ideals change. Look at so many recent examples - Gibbs (I love Carlton will play for life), Schache (wants to play for Brisbane due to his dad), Judd, Shiel, etc etc.
Also dump a kid with high work ethic and desire into the GC where he'll play in front of 16 people every second week and then every other 30K+ back in Melbourne and ideals and perceptions change.

Another factor. Gold Coast is a vacuous sporting hell-hole.

Every team based their pretty much fails or is a perennial loser..

SOS knows that, hence is likely demanding way overs from Gold Coast. Note, Gold Coast traded pick 2 last year for Lachie Weller. In that light pick 3 & 6 for pick 1 (and some stake knives like a future 3rd round pick) is a fair price. We are giving up on a future AFL captain and 250+ (more like 300+) game player in Sam Walsh.

If Gold Coast want Sam Walsh, give us 3 & 6 (or 8 if you trade with the Crows).

 

[katmanblue]

Conspiracy theory

of katman blue

thy is the devil

Make a deal with him.
Go on, do it.




























Leaves you feeling empty inside.

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[HereComesJuddy]

Simplistic is always good.

Doesn't make it right

To be as clear and concise as possible - if we rate Walsh the standout player, we should and will absolutely take Pick 1 to the draft and leave it at that. If we have Walsh on par with Lukosius and/or Rankine, trading down to 3 and change is essentially creating draft picks out of nothing, and should absolutely be done even if the deal isn't a "godfather" offer.

While we're here though - you still haven't provided any clarification on your firm belief that Rankine will run back to SA as soon as he possibly can.

I have no info other than whispers i hear re Rankine. I just wouldn't take him based on this. This is a discussion thread. Not everything has to be gospel so i and other can give you opinions...

And we will take Walsh my friend

 

[katmanblue]

Be still my beating heart!!!

But then, you'll die.

No one wants that.

Beat on, I say.

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[katmanblue]

View attachment 584573

Haha I love how she goes cockeyed for a second. Really sells it.

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[dlb99]

I have no info other than whispers i hear re Rankine. I just wouldn't take him based on this. This is a discussion thread. Not everything has to be gospel so i and other can give you opinions...

And we will take Walsh my friend

Rankine is a far better bet for a strong team that is willing to bet on his upside and can live with his downside. He would be a nice fit for the Crows; a future Andrew McLoad?

But he has some bust factor about him.

For us, we simply can not take that risk at this stage. Every top end draft pick (top 10) has to be a very good 200 game player.

On our draft board we would surely have: Walsh, Smith, Caldwell ranked higher than Rankine.

P.S. I do not expect Rankine to be a bust.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I have no info other than whispers i hear re Rankine. I just wouldn't take him based on this. This is a discussion thread. Not everything has to be gospel so i and other can give you opinions...

And we will take Walsh my friend

Thanks

That's my point though - these whispers about Rankine are all predicated on speculation about what happens if he lands at Gold Coast. Gold Coast is a very different beast to Carlton when it comes to player retention - so I'm not convinced the flight risk concerns should be as high on our agenda. We need to consider it, for sure, but we'd have to be pretty confident of providing an environment that Rankine would enjoy being part of.

Still - if we value a consistent production midfielder more, Sam Walsh come on down.

Value either way.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Rankine is a far better bet for a strong team that is willing to bet on his upside and can live with his downside. He would be a nice fit for the Crows; a future Andrew McLoad?

But he has some bust factor about him.

For us, we simply can not take that risk at this stage. Every top end draft pick (top 10) has to be a very good 200 game player.

On our draft board we would surely have: Walsh, Smith, Caldwell ranked higher than Rankine.

P.S. I do not expect Rankine to be a bust.

Why can we not take that risk? Haven't we drafted enough safe bets over the last 3 years?

Cripps, Setterfield, Kennedy, Fisher, SPS, Dow, O'Brien - there's enough "future elite" in there that maybe we can roll the dice on a mercurial forward like Rankine and continue to pad out the midfield with Cuningham types.

 

[jd2010]

Anyone not in favour of trading pick 1 for 3 & 6? I've gone from less than 50% keen to all in over the past week or so. 2 for the price of 1 deal is much better. I've got a feeling it will also involve a 2019 pick swap between the two clubs (our first for their Lions pick). Back ourselves in to finish close enough that the trade down isn't too major

 

[Jeremias]

Lang is just a nothing player....he is 23...not overly quick, not overly skillful, zero work ethic and no appetite for the contest.....an injury free preseason won't change that

You're wrong with just about everything here, and you're clearly basing it off a 2018 season heavily impacted by injuries.

Pace, skills and pressure are all strengths and you've tried to paint them as weaknesses which just isn't accurate at all.

 

[Amers]

Lang and Kane Lucas share the honours of Carlton players that have impressed me the least

You must have really rated Bootsma...

 

[bmaurizio]

Why can we not take that risk? Haven't we drafted enough safe bets over the last 3 years?

Cripps, Setterfield, Kennedy, Fisher, SPS, Dow, O'Brien - there's enough "future elite" in there that maybe we can roll the dice on a mercurial forward like Rankine and continue to pad out the midfield with Cuningham types.

Concur totally, we either take a risk this year or next, how much of as a risk are Lukosius or Rankine? both are potential champions.
The fixation and paranoia for accumulating midfielders is driving this speculation and its annoying. Both players have big X factor, will draw supporters to games and the club.
Next year’s top 5 has plenty of elite midfielders talent again.

 

[dlb99]

Why can we not take that risk? Haven't we drafted enough safe bets over the last 3 years?

Cripps, Setterfield, Kennedy, Fisher, SPS, Dow, O'Brien - there's enough "future elite" in there that maybe we can roll the dice on a mercurial forward like Rankine and continue to pad out the midfield with Cuningham types.

Because we won 2 games this year with a % of less than 60.

If we had 2 picks inside 8, then yes we could/maybe.
But if we have only 1 pick, we won't take Rankine (my gut instinct).

I still think our midfield needs work, hence I would take Walsh (with 1) or Smith & Caldwell (with 3 & 6).

I would skip Lukosius and Rankine and play it safe noting that Charlie Curnow and SPS have enough X-factor to make up for the safe picks listed above (in my opinion).

 

[Opine]

You must have really rated Bootsma...

leaving aside his conduct outside of the field of play, bootsma showed some real promise in his early games.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Anyone not in favour of trading pick 1 for 3 & 6? I've gone from less than 50% keen to all in over the past week or so. 2 for the price of 1 deal is much better. I've got a feeling it will also involve a 2019 pick swap between the two clubs (our first for their Lions pick). Back ourselves in to finish close enough that the trade down isn't too major

If GC offered 3 and 6, I'd take it without a doubt.

I'd also consider trading 6 down to GWS for 9 and 19 - they're usually open to moving up the order, and might be keen on Ben King in particular.

3 - Rankine
9 - Jones
19 - Butters/Duursma/O'Halloran/Stocker/McHenry