Rumour Bluemour Discussion thread

[My name geoff]

We're improving slowly. We've adapted to the game plan pretty well already, and now all we need is the cattle. SOS will hit the draft and trade period hard again this year. Next year hopefully we start become a bit more competitive for longer periods of matches.

We've lost to two likely top 4 sides and we were pretty competitive for large patches. Richmond game could of gone either way. I don't think we are too far away from having a breakout game.

 

[HBF]

We've lost to two likely top 4 sides and we were pretty competitive for large patches. Richmond game could of gone either way. I don't think we are too far away from having a breakout game.

I'm looking forward to seeing how we go against Fremantle. We don't fear going to WA, and they are really struggling at the moment. Not suggesting that we'll beat them, but I think we might give a good account of ourselves.

 

[Jeremias]

We've lost to two likely top 4 sides and we were pretty competitive for large patches. Richmond game could of gone either way. I don't think we are too far away from having a breakout game.

GC have improved considerably but I wouldn't go as far as saying they are a likely top 4 side. In fact I reckon there is every chance they won't make the 8 this year despite their strong start.

Good on them for starting 3-0 but they have had an easy draw thus far - 2 of their 3 games have been against sides almost certain to finish 17th and 18th this year.

It'll be very interesting to see where they are at by mid-season. Every chance they have a 6-6 record by the time their bye comes around.

 

[HBF]

GC have improved considerably but I wouldn't go as far as saying they are a likely top 4 side. In fact I reckon there is every chance they won't make the 8 this year despite their strong start.

Good on them for starting 3-0 but they have had an easy draw thus far - 2 of their 3 games have been against sides almost certain to finish 17th and 18th this year.

It'll be very interesting to see where they are at by mid-season. Every chance they have a 6-6 record by the time their bye comes around.

And the Suns play Brisbane this week.
Good on them for beating Freo over there, but I tend to agree with you.

Having said that though, how much better could they be when they get JOM and Swallow back.

 

[I bleed Blue]

It's easy to say no priority picks now.... But if we actually go winless throughout the whole year, the pressure on the AFL to award a priority pick could be overwhelming.

Winless. Think about that... When was the last time we saw a team go winless?

If you can't award a priority pick after a winless season then just scrap priority picks all together.

 

[Lace_Out]

We won't go winless.
Brisbane and * are more than winnable games. Unless we are hit hard with injuries before we meet.

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[Doro]

How bad do you have to be to be labelled a basket case Doro?

I don't think we've been that bad for that long as yet. We were a basket case in 2002/3/4- quite a way from that yet. The case would be strengthened though if our season only managed 0-2 wins and an almighty financial loss. I expect neither of those things to occur though.

 

[MrsEddieBetts]

We've gotta win some games, we've just gotta.

 

[Jeremias]

And the Suns play Brisbane this week.
Good on them for beating Freo over there, but I tend to agree with you.

You'd expect the Suns to win that and improve to 4-0. Good start to the year but given their draw I dare say most would have expected them to start 3-1, 2-2 at worst.

They've had a very comfortable opening month of the season, facing 3 of last year's bottom 4 sides - of course they were the 4th but that was largely unexpected last year.

Looking at their draw I can easily see them finishing with less than 10 wins for the year, even with this strong start. Maybe I'm being too harsh on them but there are some very good sides across the competition and I don't consider the Suns to be one of them, or in fact anywhere near them.

Having said that though, how much better could they be when they get JOM and Swallow back.

Absolutely, at full fitness they have a very strong core midfield group - Ablett, JOM, Prestia, Swallow, Hall. Good support acts as well in Martin, Rosa, Miller, Lonergan etc.

 

[Doro]

You'd expect the Suns to win that and improve to 4-0. Good start to the year but given their draw I dare say most would have expected them to start 3-1, 2-2 at worst.

They've had a very comfortable opening month of the season, facing 3 of last year's bottom 4 sides - of course they were the 4th but that was largely unexpected last year.

Looking at their draw I can easily see them finishing with less than 10 wins for the year, even with this strong start. Maybe I'm being too harsh on them but there are some very good sides across the competition and I don't consider the Suns to be one of them, or in fact anywhere near them.



Absolutely, at full fitness they have a very strong core midfield group - Ablett, JOM, Prestia, Swallow, Hall. Good support acts as well in Martin, Rosa, Miller, Lonergan etc.

I was really impressed by them on Saturday- fast movement, good structure defensively, and Lynch and Martin forward are a handful. They could be the come from nowhere team this year.

 

[Sector 7G]

I was really impressed by them on Saturday- fast movement, good structure defensively, and Lynch and Martin forward are a handful. They could be the come from nowhere team this year.

Lets see how they go against a good side. Haven't beaten much so far. Freo are in horrendous form.

 

[Doro]

Lets see how they go against a good side. Haven't beaten much so far. Freo are in horrendous form.

Yeah, North and Geelong after Brisbane will give a better indication.

 

[DirtyMuso]

I was really impressed by them on Saturday- fast movement, good structure defensively, and Lynch and Martin forward are a handful. They could be the come from nowhere team this year.

They certainly seem like it, looks like they have all the parts to be a successful side. No doubt that they under-performed last year, I think they will be top 6 this year. Would kill to have Tom Lynch, Aaron Hall and Jack Martin at Carlton, among others.

 

[bmaurizio]

There's a strong possibility that we'll go winless with Don's and Lions as rivals. Lions will be a stronger team with Beams and a few others later on.
But the Dons may be the one to bump us off the bottom.
The PP is more urgent for us as Bombers will rejust nicely next season.

 

[Doro]

They certainly seem like it, looks like they have all the parts to be a successful side. No doubt that they under-performed last year, I think they will be top 6 this year. Would kill to have Tom Lynch, Aaron Hall and Jack Martin at Carlton, among others.

Indeed, there's a bit of star power there. Bloody impressive unit if they get it together.

 

[RedFury]

Looking at their draw I can easily see them finishing with less than 10 wins for the year, even with this strong start. Maybe I'm being too harsh on them but there are some very good sides across the competition and I don't consider the Suns to be one of them, or in fact anywhere near them.

Totally agree with you J. I think they'll lose 5 in a row, including to us. We'll win 4 of 5 and be ahead of them after round 8. They suck!

 

[Lace_Out]

There's a strong possibility that we'll go winless with Don's and Lions as rivals. Lions will be a stronger team with Beams and a few others later on.
But the Dons may be the one to bump us off the bottom.
The PP is more urgent for us as Bombers will rejust nicely next season.

No more spoons!

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[Styxx]

We won't go winless.

Thats actually the one possible way the year can be labelled a failure.

 

[blueboy25]

We won't go winless.

Thats actually the one possible way the year can be labelled a failure.

if we won 4 games last year we will at least match that this year.

We will actually win our last 4 plus a few before then.

We have essendon x 2
Brisbane x 2
Collingwood x 2
Melbourne

Shame we don't get a second crack at Richmond

 

[gbatman]

Won't win many, surely wont go winless. Essendon, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne and Brisbane have been less than impressive. Saints maybe. Port have also looked vulnerable at times.

 

[Jeremias]

Given that after Brisbane they will be 4-0 that's a big call. You must think that us and Essendon have made them look much, much better than they really are.

Absolutely. Heading into this year I had Carlton and Essendon as clearly the worst two teams in the competition.

They've beaten us both comfortably and I wouldn't have expected any less. Credit to them for the huge result in Perth which I don't think anyone saw coming.

You're saying there's a fair chance they will only win 5 of their remaining 18 games?

The Suns were hopeless last year and I'd like a sample size greater than 3 games to see whether they've turned things around or just the beneficiaries of a relatively cushy fixture to start the year.

I'm not convinced they'll keep this up so yes, I do think there's a very real chance they fall in a hole, only win a handful more games for the year, and miss out on playing finals.

Having said that - and this is fence sitting at its finest - I also acknowledge they could easily prove me wrong and comfortably win enough games to finish inside the top 8.

They play Brisbane and Essendon again. That's probably 2 wins just about in the books. So no more than 3 from the other 16 games?

They play Freo again this time at home.
Melbourne twice, Saints, Richmond, Collingwood, Port at home all very winnable.
GWS would be close to 50-50 in 2 games.
Kangas, Sydney, Crows all at home all difficult but certainly winnable.
Hawks, West Coast, Doggies and Cats all away probably not.

Can't see them going less than 11 wins from this start personally. 12 more likely.

I've had a quick look through their draw and this is what I've come up with - again acknowledging the flimsy nature of these predictions.

Win
I see the Suns as definitely winning these four games:
1. Brisbane (R4)
2. Melbourne (R7)
3. St Kilda (R15)
4. Essendon (R21)

50/50
I can't tip these games with any great confidence so I'm fence sitting here. NB with 50/50 games where the teams play each other twice, I tend to give the benefit to one team when playing at home and the other when playing away - hence I have them splitting games with Brisbane, GWS and probably Melbourne as well.
1. GWS (R8)
2. Brisbane (R16)
3. Fremantle (R18)
4. Melbourne (R19)
5. GWS (R20)
6. Collingwood (R22)
7. Port Adelaide (R23)

Lose
These games I just can't see them winning at this stage.
1. North Melbourne (R5)
2. Geelong (R6)
3. Adelaide (R9) - close to 50/50 given it is in QLD.
4. West Coast (R10)
5. Sydney (R11)
6. Richmond (R12) - close to 50/50 game but I've given it to Richmond because it is at the MCG and I think the Tigers will have started to fire by then.
7. Hawthorn (R14)
8. Western Bulldogs (R17)

At a bare minimum they have to win 4-5 out of those 7 50/50 games to give themselves a chance IMO. Things can change very quickly, but at this stage I just can't see that happening.

Now watch them fire and finish in the top 4.

 

[HBF]

We won't go winless.

Thats actually the one possible way the year can be labelled a failure.

All things being equal, we really should beat Essendon.

 

[coryne]

once again, probably because essendon might get some (multiple) high draft comp picks from free agency......

Then no doubt they will scrap free agency compo

How so? Hooker wont get an offer which will make him a top 10 paid player in the league, players leaving due to the drug cheating clause will be dfa and not eligible for compensation and we have heard all along that it isn't 1 selection/player instead the net loss/hain determines the value of the fa compensation so even if 5 players leave the best that they could get is a single band 1 pick .....

 

[LanceRomance]

How so? Hooker wont get an iffer which will make him a top 10 paid player in the league, players leaving due to the drug cheating clause will be dfa and not eligible for compensation and we have heard all along that it isn't 1 selection/player instead the net loss/hain determines the value of the fa compensation so even if 5 players leave the best that they could get is a single band 1 pick .....

I am just wary of Hooker and Freo

 

[Murphkreuzmitch]

Mitchell has gone past him, miles and miles past him actually. Murphy has always been a very good player for Carlton but has rarely ranked overly high in the grand scheme of the competition. Mitchell currently ranks right up there with the best in his trade. This says a lot about where Carlton are at and have always been at. Getting it is the main part of the game, you need to be able to do this. It's more than coincidence that you look at the top sides and a large amount of their players rank right up there in the league in terms of what they do and you will often see 2 or three or sometimes more players with over 30 possessions and plenty with over 20-25 possessions. To be good, you need players who are amongst the best in their field, you need to be able to get it and you need to be able to use it. Cripps is a little out of form but is elite in his field. Murphy has had the odd season where he has been amongst the league's best but at the end of the day, you put him in a Sydney or a Hawthorn, he'd be a very good player but he would not be one of the main players. Murphy is unfairly criticised by our supporters because we all think he's an elite footballer who is underperforming. He's very close to it but he just isn't. He's a very good footballer but end of the day, no one is putting him in their AA side =. He'd be a lot better footballer in a good side, more of a weapon, but he's not that core onballer who can control and win games off his exploits.

This is our problem, lack of top end talent, it's not a lack of depth with AFL capable players. When we are a gun side. The only players in our current team who will be in the top handful will be Weitering and Cripps and possibly Silvagni, Curnow and/or McKay. As we recruit top talent, our current top players will be pushed down the pecking/ratings order. Our Key mids aren't key mids in a good side, same with our key forwards and full back. We really need to build with the highest quality material.

What rot. Tom Mitchell isn't fit to do up Murph's bootlaces.