Bottom four next year?

[beetlebug]

Brisbane
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Worst Coast seeing woosha still there another spoon I fear

 

[LOZWILDA]

14. WESTCOAST
15. GOLDCOAST
16. ESSENDON
17. CARLTON (if they look like making the bottom 4 they will tank)

 

[indieswan96]

lol, at the Essendon fans.

 

[whelan=legend]

o no u did nt. do you really want to spruke about 12th ? if thats a successful season then im sure melbourne supporters are easily pleased.

improvement , cant be satisfying being 12th though.

Whatever, we will make finals next year and this year brought everything I expected.

You were shown to have no idea. Admit you were wrong??

 

[Invigoration]

Looks like Essendon will come out victors and have the prestigious honour of beating Carlton as the first team to 17....



....th

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Here is a list of the previous 5 seasons and this years bottom 4, their previous ladder positions at the end of the H&A season and their ladder position the following year (bar 2010 of course) at the end of the H&A season.


In 2005 the bottom 4 were:

13. Essendon - 8th in 2004, 15th in 2006
14. Hawthorn - 15th in 2004, 11th in 2006
15. Collingwood - 13th in 2004, 5th in 2006
16. Carlton - 11th in 2004, 16th in 2006

* Two clubs from previous years bottom 4, one from the top 8 and one made the top 8 the following season.

In 2006 the bottom 4 were:

13. Brisbane - 11th in 2005, 10th in 2007
14. Kangaroos - 5th in 2005, 4th in 2007
15. Essendon - 13th in 2005, 12th in 2007
16. Carlton - 16th in 2005, 15th in 2007

* Two clubs from previous years bottom 4, one club from the top 8 and one club made the top 8 (4th) in the following season.

In 2007 the bottom 4 were:

13. Western Bulldogs - 8th in 2006, 3rd in 2008
14. Melbourne - 7th in 2006, 16th in 2008
15. Carlton - 16th in 2006, 11th in 2008
16. Richmond - 9th in 2006, 9th in 2008

* One club from the previous years bottom 4, two clubs from the previous years top 8 and one club made the next years top 8 (3rd).

In 2008 the bottom 4 teams were:

13. Port Adelaide - 2nd in 2007, 10th in 2009
14. Fremantle - 11th in 2007, 14th in 2009
15. West Coast - 3rd in 2007, 11th in 2009
16. Melbourne - 14th in 2007, 16th in 2009

* One club from the previous years bottom 4, two clubs from the previous years top 8 (2nd, 3rd) and no club made the following years top 8.

In 2009 the bottom 4 teams were:

13. North Melbourne - 7th in 2008, 9th in 2010
14. Fremantle - 14th in 2008, 6th in 2010
15. Richmond - 9th in 2008, 15th in 2010
16. Melbourne - 16th in 2008, 12th in 2010

* Two clubs from the previous years bottom 4, one club from the previous years top 8 (7th) and one club made the following years top 8 (6th).

In 2010 the bottom 4 teams are:

13. Brisbane Lions - 6th in 2009
14. Essendon - 8th in 2009
15. Richmond - 15th in 2009
16. West Coast - 11th in 2009

* One club from the previous years bottom 4 and two from the previous years top 8.


OK now first off I admit 5-6 seasons is probably too small a sample size so I discuss results since 2000 till the present (just in case of confusion I discuss the season 2000 with regards to the previous season 1999, so that is 11 seasons in total including 2010).

All 11 would have been better to write up but I am slack so if anyone feels like doing the previous 5 I would be grateful.

So in the 6 seasons above but also going back to 2000, we notice that in every year at least one team from the previous years bottom 4 has made the following years bottom 4 (100%). In 7 of those seasons two have made it from the previous years bottom 4 (63.63%).

In every season from 2000 onwards we also notice that one top 8 team at least makes the bottom 4 the following season (100%). In 5 of those seasons two teams from the top 8 made the bottom 4 the following year (45.45%).

In 4 seasons going back to 2000, teams from the top 4 made the bottom 4 the following season (36.36%).

In all seasons bar one from 2000 onwards, at least one team from the previous years bottom 4 has made the top 8 the following season (90.90%).

Now in case all this seems a little meaningless there is a purpose.

People shuffling this years bottom 4 around and perhaps just replacing one team with GC may be very incorrect.
Only Richmond remain from 2009's bottom 4 this year and we have no idea about the make up of expansion team.

What I will suggest is that at least one team from the top 8 will make next years bottom 4. At least one team from this years bottom 4 will still be at the bottom next season, whilst another will be finals bound.

I am therefore going to go out on a limb and predict next years bottom 4 will be:

14. Western Bulldogs
15. Port Adelaide
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast

Richmond to be the team from 2010 possibly to make the finals.

 

[.Shotties.]

Whatever, we will make finals next year and this year brought everything I expected.

You were shown to have no idea. Admit you were wrong??

Really? What about your prediction that Melbourne were going to finish above Sydney for the foreseeable future?

 

[whelan=legend]

Really? What about your prediction that Melbourne were going to finish above Sydney for the foreseeable future?

Maybe I just got confused, we'll thump the living daylights out of you (91 points up halfway through the last quarter) for the foreseeable future.

 

[.Shotties.]

Maybe I just got confused, we'll thump the living daylights out of you (91 points up halfway through the last quarter) for the foreseeable future.

Ah well, you got your first win in 5 odd years, we're playing finals for the 9th time in 11 years, everyone's happy.

 

[RockyBalboa]

13. Melbourne
14. Port Adelaide
15. Sydney
16. Richmond

Fremantle and North Melbourne are also cellar contenders again.

What a joke you don't have your own club in the worse six!

You almost have the worst list in the AFL and the tail wagging the dog

 

[skzm]

Ah well, you got your first win in 5 odd years, we're playing finals for the 9th time in 11 years, everyone's happy.

Not me, I'll be happy when the playing field is level...but then you'll probably not be

 

[.Shotties.]

Not me, I'll be happy when the playing field is level...but then you'll probably not be

You're never happy because you're a moron who barely even understands what he's complaining about. It's a toxic mix.

 

[Roughies Boys]

13: Port Adelaide
14: Essendon
15: Gold Coast
16: West Coast

 

[Happy_Neale]

Maybe I just got confused, we'll thump the living daylights out of you (91 points up halfway through the last quarter) for the foreseeable future.

Dude, you guys finished 12th, one spot above bottom four, and one win above Brisbane, who had a shocker of a season. Fair enough you are happy with the improvement you have seen, but don't make yourself look like a tool by pretending you accomplished more than you actually did this season.

(Port, Suns, Essendon, West Coast)

 

[LightTower4]

Dude, you guys finished 12th, one spot above bottom four, and one win above Brisbane, who had a shocker of a season. Fair enough you are happy with the improvement you have seen, but don't make yourself look like a tool by pretending you accomplished more than you actually did this season.

(Port, Suns, Essendon, West Coast)

1.5 wins actually and a fair chunk of percentage but apart from that dick measuring contest, a lot of punters said we would be rubbish again in 2010 but were really one of the big improvers.

 

[TelkoTheGreat]

o no u did nt. do you really want to spruke about 12th ? if thats a successful season then im sure melbourne supporters are easily pleased.

improvement , cant be satisfying being 12th though.

one step at a time and we did that this year. btw Jamar>>>> Jolly/Fraser

 

[scomac]

You all realise there are 17 sides next year

14 Eagles
15 Gold Coast
16 Richmond
17 Brisbane

 

[skzm]

who barely even understands what he's complaining about.

I'd thought after all my posts on subject it'd be pretty clear what I was complaining about...

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

14. Richmond
15. Melbourne
16. Gold Coast
17. West Coast

 

[Happy_Neale]

1.5 wins actually and a fair chunk of percentage but apart from that dick measuring contest, a lot of punters said we would be rubbish again in 2010 but were really one of the big improvers.

I agree with that, no doubt. You guys did improve heaps and I don't dispute that. But there was an air of inevitability about the team getting better after a few years on the bottom. Hell you'd be shattered if you finished any lower than you did I'm guessing.

It's just posters like w=l make you guys look pretty arrogant for a side that finished in 12th when most predicted them to finish 13th or below. That's all I'm sezzin. Sorry to paint you all with the same brush.

 

[OniAu]

Whatever, we will make finals next year and this year brought everything I expected.

You were shown to have no idea. Admit you were wrong??

no idea you finished 12th, one spot of where i predicted , most of your supporters had you scraping into the 8, on what basis im not sure . think i almost hit the mark.

you wont make the finals next year

 

[galindez]

Brisbane
Richmond
Gold Coast
West Coast

 

[.Shotties.]

I'd thought after all my posts on subject it'd be pretty clear what I was complaining about...

No, it is clear what you're complaining about, you just obviously lack any kind of knowledge on it, which makes it embarrassing when you try and discuss it.

 

[skzm]

No, it is clear what you're complaining about, you just obviously lack any kind of knowledge on it, which makes it embarrassing when you try and discuss it.

As I've said before - show me where I'm wrong and I'll be happy to take it on board. Unfortunately you've been pretty clearly unable to do that...

 

[.Shotties.]

As I've said before - show me where I'm wrong and I'll be happy to take it on board. Unfortunately you've been pretty clearly unable to do that...

Before that, tell me everything you know about the living allowance. Is it available to other teams? Under what conditions is it given? How is it applied?