Brownlow Brownlow vs MVP — Which Award Picks the Real GOATs?

[RCAB]

Let’s be honest. We all know the Brownlow has lost its shine, midfielders only, umpires voting, no finals considered, and blokes missing out because of a soft suspension. Meanwhile, the AFLPA MVP (Leigh Matthews Trophy) is voted by the players themselves, the ones who actually go head-to-head.

So the question is simple:
Which award gets it right?
And who’d win if you took the past 22 years of winners and made them face off? Or the top 5 from each award for the most recent years.

I thought I'd start a thought experiment. Below is the kind of sides they would field..



AFLPA MVP – Last 5 Years (Top 5 Finishers)

FB	Bontempelli	Bontempelli	Heeney
HB	Butters	Bontempelli	Nick Daicos
C	Brayshaw	Nick Daicos	Petracca
HF	Greene	Hogan	Petracca
FF	Shai Bolton	Hawkins	Jeremy Cameron
FOL	Cripps	Bontempelli	Neale
INT	Oliver	Touk Miller	Neale	Petracca
EMG	Boak	Steele	Walsh

Brownlow Medal – Last 5 Years (Top 5 Finishers)

FB	Wines	Bontempelli	Butters
HB	Boak	Parish	Nick Daicos
C	Gulden	Butters	Neale
HF	Petracca	Cripps	Nick Daicos
FF	Bontempelli	Heeney	Touk Miller
FOL	Cripps	Neale	Oliver
INT	Oliver	Neale	Serong	Brayshaw
EMG	Walsh	Steele	Steele

AFLPA MVP – Winners (Last 22 Years)

B	Marcus Bontempelli	Nat Fyfe	Gary Ablett Jr
HB	Michael Voss	Marcus Bontempelli	Gary Ablett Jr
C	Ben Cousins	Gary Ablett Jr	Dane Swan
HF	Gary Ablett Jr	Nat Fyfe	Marcus Bontempelli
F	Patrick Dangerfield	Nick Riewoldt	Dustin Martin
FOL	Patrick Cripps	Chris Judd	Gary Ablett Jr
INT	Chris Judd	Tom Mitchell	Andrew Brayshaw	Lachie Neale

Brownlow Medal – Winners (Last 22 Years)

B	Jimmy Bartel	Nat Fyfe	Ollie Wines
HB	Trent Cotchin	Clayton Oliver	Sam Mitchell
C	Ben Cousins	Gary Ablett Jr	Dane Swan
HF	Patrick Cripps	Nat Fyfe	Dustin Martin
F	Gary Ablett Jr	Patrick Dangerfield	Adam Cooney
FOL	Adam Goodes	Chris Judd	Lachie Neale
INT	Matt Priddis	Lachie Neale	Patrick Cripps	Tom Mitchell

Who wins in each scenario.

 

[Juddernaut08]

MVP reflects who is generally thought of as the best. There's probably a bit of a lag in terms of recognition and the previous year's results and media coverage leads to group think. That being said, I think they normally get it right.

Brownlow is a better reflection of that particular season, and is very skewed to mids.

 

[00Stinger]

MVP reflects who is generally thought of as the best. There's probably a bit of a lag in terms of recognition and the previous year's results and media coverage leads to group think. That being said, I think they normally get it right.

Brownlow is a better reflection of that particular season, and is very skewed to mids.

Bradshaw's win is the massive outlier

 

[RonnieRaven]

Bradshaw's win is the massive outlier

Tom mitchell
Woewodin
Priddis
all Brownlow medalist
All not as good as AB

 

[Fadge]

The Fadgelow is where it's at - the only award that takes onto account both the home and away AND finals series.

Previous winners:
2024 - I. Heeney
2023 - N. Daicos

 

[RCAB]

MVP reflects who is generally thought of as the best. There's probably a bit of a lag in terms of recognition and the previous year's results and media coverage leads to group think. That being said, I think they normally get it right.

Brownlow is a better reflection of that particular season, and is very skewed to mids.

I understand what you're saying but I’d argue it’s backwards.

You say the Brownlow reflects the season better? Maybe statistically but only if you think a 3–2–1 from umps every game, weighed equally regardless of importance, matchups, or game state, is a fair reflection.

A player can dominate in a bottom-of-the-table dead rubber and bank 3 votes. Meanwhile, another might tag a Brownlow contender out of a finals shaping clash and get nothing. No nuance, no context. Just isolated guesswork from umps who aren’t even watching for that.

The MVP might lag a touch, but groupthink among peers — the ones who game-plan, match up, and know impact better than umpires — gives you a far better hierarchy of influence across the comp. It’s not perfect, but it’s 100% more informed.

There are actual studies backing this up like the “wisdom of crowds” effect, like the jellybean-in-a-jar experiment: individuals get it wildly wrong, but the average of a large group converges shockingly close to the real number. Same principle applies here, group judgment among experts beats isolated guesses every time.

Also, you never answered, if the 22-man MVP team played the 22-man Brownlow team, who wins?

 

[RCAB]

The Fadgelow is where it's at - the only award that takes onto account both the home and away AND finals series.

Previous winners:
2024 - I. Heeney
2023 - N. Daicos

Heeney finished 5th in the Brownlow last year and also was ineligible, he finished second in the MVP. I wonder if journals had of voted, would have taken Heeney or Bont? Probably Heeney I'd say.

If they asked players so far this year they'd have similar names. Daicos, Bont, Heeney, Hogan and probably Richards.

 

[Fadge]

Heeney finished 5th in the Brownlow last year and also was ineligible, he finished second in the MVP. I wonder if journals had of voted, would have taken Heeney or Bont? Probably Heeney I'd say.

If they asked players so far this year they'd have similar names. Daicos, Bont, Heeney, Hogan and probably Richards.

Heeney also had two x unbelievable finals games, which elevated him ahead of Daicos and Cripps (if there was any debate as to whether he was already ahead of them based on just the home and away season).

Neale leapfrogged Cripps and Daicos with his finals series, after being behind them based on home and away games.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Tom mitchell
Woewodin
Priddis
all Brownlow medalist
All not as good as AB

Mitchell’s 18 season was incredible.

Fair enough to suggest post leg break but during that 17-18 period and the 2018 season especially he was unreal.

2018

Averaged

35 disposals 16 contested possessions
72% DE
5 inside 50s 443 metres gained
8 clearances 6.3 tackles
13 goals for the season (0.5 avg 1.3 shots)
6.2 score involvements

(2nd coaches votes, AFLPA MVP, Brownlow, B&F, AA.)

 

[PhilX]

Any reason the coach's votes award isn't being considered?

The coaches know better than anyone else what their own players have actually been asked to do on the day, and they can see which opposition players are causing problems.

 

[DopeMaster]

I would have the coaches award over the players award.

Many players don’t even watch all games and often go off reputation and ‘vibe.’

 

[RCAB]

Any reason the coach's votes award isn't being considered?

The coaches know better than anyone else what their own players have actually been asked to do on the day, and they can see which opposition players are causing problems.

I can do that later if you like

 

[Juddernaut08]

I understand what you're saying but I’d argue it’s backwards.

You say the Brownlow reflects the season better? Maybe statistically but only if you think a 3–2–1 from umps every game, weighed equally regardless of importance, matchups, or game state, is a fair reflection.

A player can dominate in a bottom-of-the-table dead rubber and bank 3 votes. Meanwhile, another might tag a Brownlow contender out of a finals shaping clash and get nothing. No nuance, no context. Just isolated guesswork from umps who aren’t even watching for that.

The MVP might lag a touch, but groupthink among peers — the ones who game-plan, match up, and know impact better than umpires — gives you a far better hierarchy of influence across the comp. It’s not perfect, but it’s 100% more informed.

There are actual studies backing this up like the “wisdom of crowds” effect, like the jellybean-in-a-jar experiment: individuals get it wildly wrong, but the average of a large group converges shockingly close to the real number. Same principle applies here, group judgment among experts beats isolated guesses every time.

Also, you never answered, if the 22-man MVP team played the 22-man Brownlow team, who wins?

yeah I said mvp usually gets it right.

i dont understand your best 22. why is bont in the back pocket?

 

[RCAB]

yeah I said mvp usually gets it right.

i dont understand your best 22. why is bont in the back pocket?

On the MVP team from the last 5 years, he's also FB, CHB, and Foll.

On the Brownlow team he only appears twice, in the forward pocket and full back positions.

The question is, if you put Bont in the midfield, which of those midfielders are going to play defence or forward.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Tom mitchell
Woewodin
Priddis
all Brownlow medalist
All not as good as AB

Priddis should of had 2. Didn't get a vote one game where he should have got 3. Rigged it for Fyfe.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Which one would you rather win?


Case closed.

 

[RCAB]

PhilX

Coaches Award Winners – Last 22 Years

Coaches Award Winners – Last 22 Years

B	Pendlebury	Goodes	Butters
HB	Daicos	Bontempelli	Goodwin
C	Hannebery	Ablett	Swan
HF	Ablett	Dangerfield	Martin
F	Miller	Hall	Gray
Foll	Gawn	Ablett	Neale
INT	Cotchin	Oliver	Oliver	Murphy

---

Last 5 Years (Top 5 Each Year) – Coaches Votes

Last 5 Years (Top 5 Each Year) – Coaches Votes

B	Wines	Bontempelli	Butters
HB	Rozee	Bontempelli	Daicos
C	Neale	Neale	Neale
HB	Daicos	Petracca	Miller
F	Petracca	Heeney	Petracca
Foll	Cripps	Neale	Oliver
INT	Neale	Oliver	Boak	Miller
EMG	Serong	Steele	Steele

Interestingly, the coaches team is the most balanced, coachable team, with they best leaders of the last 22 winners. Although I'd say that MVP is very close, where is the Brownlow is far behind in those categories.

Maybe the coaches team wins because they have the edge in the ruck, but I prefer the MVP forward line.


Conversely, I think the coaches team from the last 5 years (no Gawn), is not as balanced as the MVP from the last 5 years. The MVP should win easily, they have much more firepower.