Opinion Cam Guthrie - out of form? (and tangential Supercoach as guide to form discussion)

[CatFan79]

Not really, he played well against Adelaide (who were second on the ladder when we played them) and was solid against the Bulldogs (whose midfield is very hard to play against), that suggests to me he's a player who is capable of handling the better sides and will only benefit from getting more AFL playing time.

Menegola has easily out-performed Guthrie and Blicavs yet we're happy to carry them through all their shit performances... there's bigger issues.

 

[JUBJUB]

Menegola has easily out-performed Guthrie and Blicavs yet we're happy to carry them through all their shit performances... there's bigger issues.

and he's off again

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

...sick of using coaches votes from round 8 to excuse Guthrie's performances or should I just assume you agree?

Guthrie's having his best year statistically and is the only player in the league to improve every year since his debut.*



*Guthrie is one of two players I checked... the other being Duncan.

 

[CatFan79]

Guthrie's having his best year statistically and is the only player in the league to improve every year since his debut.*

*Guthrie is one of two players I checked... the other being Duncan.

What statistics?

No doubt his number of possessions would have increased as he's been given more time in the midfield.. that was inevitable.

If you wanna talk pure stats from an effectiveness perspective this is his value in Supercoach as a midfielder - $358,500.. bet he's not in your team.

 

[cats_09]

What statistics?

No doubt his number of possessions would have increased as he's been given more time in the midfield.. that was inevitable.

If you wanna talk pure stats from an effectiveness perspective this is his value in Supercoach as a midfielder - $358,500.. bet he's not in your team.

Wow - I didn't know that SuperCoach was the go to form guide for the impact a player has in matches. I guess that Lonergan and Taylor are in shit form as their SuperCoach value is less than Guthrie's!

I always found the best way to judge a players impact was by actually watching the matches they play, not a computer screen with arbitrary values applied to what they appear to have or not have done.

 

[CatFan79]

Wow - I didn't know that SuperCoach was the go to form guide for the impact a player has in matches. I guess that Lonergan and Taylor are in shit form as their SuperCoach value is less than Guthrie's!

I always found the best way to judge a players impact was by actually watching the matches they play, not a computer screen with arbitrary values applied to what they appear to have or not have done.

Nakia was talking stats, not me. But like it or not, the champion data ranking is the best method available atm for rating a player's effectiveness.

I agree it's skewed to favour certain positions (not defenders) but for purely comparing mids against other mids from a stats perspective it's probably the best way. Better than counting kicks and handballs anyway.

 

[JUBJUB]

What statistics?

No doubt his number of possessions would have increased as he's been given more time in the midfield.. that was inevitable.

If you wanna talk pure stats from an effectiveness perspective this is his value in Supercoach as a midfielder - $358,500.. bet he's not in your team.

You really are pissed off about the lack of sprinkles he gave you

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

What statistics?

No doubt his number of possessions would have increased as he's been given more time in the midfield.. that was inevitable..

Indeed, his numbers have steadily improved as he's matured, as have his rebound 50's, proving he's also either had stints in defence or he's running harder as a midfielder to help the defenders out. As well as improving his disposal efficiency, he's also been given votes by the coaches in 7 out of his 17 games yet you want him omitted from the side strangely enough.

If you wanna talk pure stats from an effectiveness perspective this is his value in Supercoach as a midfielder - $358,500.. bet he's not in your team

It's hard to take any subsequent discussion with any seriousness when you're using fantasy football to rate performance.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Guthrie's having his best year statistically and is the only player in the league to improve every year since his debut.*



*Guthrie is one of two players I checked... the other being Duncan.

Agree , rate him massively.
Having said that he hasn't looked quite right the last few weeks - someone mentioned a rib injury?
If that's the case then definitely rest him until he's right , I'd also be monitoring Jimmy , Boris and Lonergan so they are prime for finals

 

[Partridge]

Guthrie's having his best year statistically and is the only player in the league to improve every year since his debut.*

*Guthrie is one of two players I checked... the other being Duncan.

Seems he's starting to be regarded in a very similar way too.

Steady improvement every single season. I would have thought that would be a good thing.

 

[Nickoo]

Guthrie's having his best year statistically and is the only player in the league to improve every year since his debut.*



*Guthrie is one of two players I checked... the other being Duncan.

Thats interesting!! You'd think the opposite on this site.


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[Ricky Vaughn]

Guthrie played the last 6 weeks of 2015 in AA form, and continued at the start of 2016 in excellent form.

But in the last 6 weeks his performances have taken a nose dive.
Whether you think he needs to be dropped, or work through it is a matter of opinion, but I'm surprised some are willing to defend his recent form.

Surely we can all see that we need serious improvement from Guthrie (and a few others) to be any chance of lifting the cup in October.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Indeed, his numbers have steadily improved as he's matured, as have his rebound 50's, proving he's also either had stints in defence or he's running harder as a midfielder to help the defenders out.

So he's played 5-6 good games this year, and 5-6 good games last year? That seems to be the general consensus.

Well, that's not good enough for a player who should be peaking (100 games / 24yrs of age), if we're talking a side contending to win premierships. I'm not content that he's only steadily improving year by year, I'm not interested in his personal growth, or him at all personally, what he brings to the side is what's important. Playing 1/4 of the season at a high level suggests he's no better than hundreds of other sub par players on other AFL lists.

Bottom line. At the moment he's not at AFL level as a mid. His form is worthy of him being dropped. With Guthrie in the midfield we can not expect to go far in finals. When the heat is on, he's completely useless - undeniably soft and unwilling to contest with any ferocity or intent, regularly.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

His form is worthy of him being dropped.

Explaining this little "gem" shall be fun to witness. Cam Guthrie is so far down on the drop to the vfl list it's laughable to suggest he's close to it. Laughable.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Explaining this little "gem" shall be fun to witness. Cam Guthrie is so far down on the drop to the vfl list it's laughable to suggest he's close to it. Laughable.

He's had time to improve his form, multiple weeks, yet he's still struggling.

I'm not saying don't play him in finals, I'm saying put him back to the VFL to get the hunger back, the desire. That's what he's lost above all else, as well as confidence. If you're happy with what he's putting out there, you're an idiot. I count 6 games now in a row that have been below par. When does it end?

I don't worship players like many on here (including yourself seemingly), I want what's best for the team. A premiership! You see Guthrie being dropped as insulting to suggest, I see it as helping him and the team.

So, apart from the obvious (I realise Scott won't drop him, it's not his style - accepts mediocrity from certain players) are you going to explain why it's such a "laughable" suggestion? You really think we're going to get anywhere in finals with him in the midfield, or in the form he's in currently??

Why are you content to see him remain in the team in current form? Are you happy that we remain so reliant on Dangerfield and Selwood? What happens when they're unable to 'star'? We just keep carrying your boyfriend because you like the look of him?

Now, are you going to contribute, or just continue with similar off topic crap?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

He's had time to improve his form, multiple weeks, yet he's still struggling.

I'm not saying don't play him in finals, I'm saying put him back to the VFL to get the hunger back, the desire. That's what he's lost above all else, as well as confidence. If you're happy with what he's putting out there, you're an idiot. I count 6 games now in a row that have been below par. When does it end?

I don't worship players like many on here (including yourself seemingly), I want what's best for the team. A premiership! You see Guthrie being dropped as insulting to suggest, I see it as helping him and the team.

So, apart from the obvious (I realise Scott won't drop him, it's not his style - accepts mediocrity from certain players) are you going to explain why it's such a "laughable" suggestion? You really think we're going to get anywhere in finals with him in the midfield, or in the form he's in currently??

Why are you content to see him remain in the team in current form? Are you happy that we remain so reliant on Dangerfield and Selwood? What happens when they're unable to 'star'? We just keep carrying your boyfriend because you like the look of him?

Now, are you going to contribute, or just continue with similar off topic crap?

Laughable because he's improved on the previous season. Has nearly 40 coaches votes as a mid.

Everything you've just said btw reeks of "I've got nothing". been asking for weeks and you are yet to mount a compelling case. You think he should be out, well mount a credible and convincing case for that. At present you have not. Moreover your agenda against him clouds the judgement and gives off a sense of "actively looking for faults" as opposed to highlighting clear drop worthy failings. Which are not currently present.

"When does it end" good question, I too would like to know when the Guthrie agenda will end.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Seems he's starting to be regarded in a very similar way too.

Steady improvement every single season. I would have thought that would be a good thing.

I think supporters need to temper their expectations a little and not rate a players performance based on Dangerfield's numbers, which in effect is exactly what they're doing, and unintentionally.

I've been hearing how Mitch Duncan has been out of form yet he too is having his best year statistically, is averaging 2 and a half tackles more than last year and almost a 100 more Metres gained a game.



I also hear how Blicav's forms been down on last year yet his output statistically is similar... Some of our players are victims of the arrival of Patty Dangerfield and I think they're being compared to his standard of performance.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

So he's played 5-6 good games this year, and 5-6 good games last year? That seems to be the general consensus..

He's polled votes from the coaches in 7 games, disproving this theory. Against the Crows he found the ball 25 times and laid 7 tackles. In what imagination isn't that a reasonable game?

You need to redefine your assessment of a 'good game' I think.

Well, that's not good enough for a player who should be peaking (100 games / 24yrs of age), if we're talking a side contending to win premierships. I'm not content that he's only steadily improving year by year, I'm not interested in his personal growth, or him at all personally, what he brings to the side is what's important. Playing 1/4 of the season at a high level suggests he's no better than hundreds of other sub par players on other AFL lists.

Bottom line. At the moment he's not at AFL level as a mid. His form is worthy of him being dropped. With Guthrie in the midfield we can not expect to go far in finals. When the heat is on, he's completely useless - undeniably soft and unwilling to contest with any ferocity or intent, regularly

Aren't you happy with steady improvement every year or are you one of these supporters who assume that it's possible for every player in the side to average Dangerfield numbers?

Serious question.

 

[bulletproof]

Guthrie is not playing at his best but he is nowhere near being dropped.

1- there is no suitable replacement for him in the seconds.
2 - even his below par games are better than our fringe players
3 - he gives side flexibility

No doubt he needs to find form if we are going anywhere this year. But the only way he finds that form is in the firsts. Same as Motlop a month ago (who was playing much worse).

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Guthrie is not playing at his best but he is nowhere near being dropped.

1- there is no suitable replacement for him in the seconds.
2 - even his below par games are better than our fringe players
3 - he gives side flexibility

No doubt he needs to find form if we are going anywhere this year. But the only way he finds that form is in the firsts. Same as Motlop a month ago (who was playing much worse).

Guthrie being out of form is simply a fallacy.

 

[strauchnyy]

How to fix Guthrie's form:

Play.him.in.defense

Shift caddy to the inside mid role, play Guthrie off the hbf for 70% of the game on a lockdown and attacking role. It defines his role better, focuses his attention in the basics, gets him easier ball, caddy/scooter/menegola cover him well, and he can be released for fresh legs into the middle and more do towards the end of games for fresh legs.

Seems mind blowingly simple to me.

Do Scott and the MC see it? Doubtful.

 

[Nickoo]

He's had time to improve his form, multiple weeks, yet he's still struggling.

I'm not saying don't play him in finals, I'm saying put him back to the VFL to get the hunger back, the desire. That's what he's lost above all else, as well as confidence. If you're happy with what he's putting out there, you're an idiot. I count 6 games now in a row that have been below par. When does it end?

I don't worship players like many on here (including yourself seemingly), I want what's best for the team. A premiership! You see Guthrie being dropped as insulting to suggest, I see it as helping him and the team.

So, apart from the obvious (I realise Scott won't drop him, it's not his style - accepts mediocrity from certain players) are you going to explain why it's such a "laughable" suggestion? You really think we're going to get anywhere in finals with him in the midfield, or in the form he's in currently??

Why are you content to see him remain in the team in current form? Are you happy that we remain so reliant on Dangerfield and Selwood? What happens when they're unable to 'star'? We just keep carrying your boyfriend because you like the look of him?

Now, are you going to contribute, or just continue with similar off topic crap?

Its unlikely he'll be dropped IMHO perchè(because);
1. He's playing pretty well just not as impacting as his peak earlier this year peak form v Adel in Adel
2. They need game on game practise to get used to each other in the centre.
3. With Reece they wanted him practise in the twos a few things. That is not the case for Guth. Check point two here as practise makes perfect.
4. He is important for structure and is allocated along with JS the back of the sqr where as Mots Duncan and Paddy are more front half.
5. Practise with the core makes perfect.

Hawks are drilled and then practise the drills in games of high intensity. We need to do same.


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[CatFan79]

Guthrie being out of form is simply a fallacy.

We simply cannot contend for a premiership with him in the midfield. That's basically all it comes down to for me..

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We simply cannot contend for a premiership with him in the midfield. That's basically all it comes down to for me..

It's hard to take you serious when you've indicated that supercoach price is a valid measure of a players output... no offence.

 

[Eddynukes]

I think supporters need to temper their expectations a little and not rate a players performance based on Dangerfield's numbers, which in effect is exactly what they're doing, and unintentionally.

I've been hearing how Mitch Duncan has been out of form yet he too is having his best year statistically, is averaging 2 and a half tackles more than last year and almost a 100 more Metres gained a game.

View attachment 272374

I also hear how Blicav's forms been down on last year yet his output statistically is similar... Some of our players are victims of the arrival of Patty Dangerfield and I think they're being compared to his standard of performance.

I love Duncan, he's without a doubt my favourite player, and I think he's playing decently.

But, comparing his stats with last year and seeing an improvement doesn't say much, when he was played as a tagger for 4/5 weeks, only played a half another week, and then his last games were clearly affected by fitness issues.

Statistically, last year he probably only played 3-4 games that were at the level we'd want....

(Some cheeky edits on my part, apologies)