Cam Rayner

[Meteoric Rise]

Your first sentence again shows you don't understand. Trade value now? so you conveniently skip over the 4 poor years?

Let's look at it this way. There have been 4-5 All Australian or squad calibre players taken in the draft. For Rayner to break even, just break even, he would need to have 1 AA calibre season ('squad would be suffice). That's assuming none of the other players get a 2nd AA. He is miles off that.

If Rayner went for a trade, he'd probably get an early 2nd round pick. Say 19-22.

If all the AFL clubs had a crystal ball on 2017 draft night and saw that he was next to useless (injuries or otherwise) for the first 4 years I'd say he goes for about late 2nd round i.e 30-36. If recruiters knew that after 4 years he had shown an inability to make it as a forward or as a mid and would be stuck in a hybrid role getting 14 touches a game then i'm sorry but they aren't touching him until maybe 30.

Conversely if recruiters had a crystal ball and were told that Fritsch would be a back to back 50 goal/yr goal kicker, AA squad nominee and kick 6 goals in a granny, he's going early to mid first round (Pick 5-9).

Same can be said for many of the other gun players taken in the first round.

The ceiling that you're hoping and praying that rayner hits, is a level that many other players in his draft have already hit.

That is seriously funny. A player who has had “4 poor years” wouldn’t be worth too much in a trade Danster. Rayner would fetch a pick well above where you originally rated him and well above where you are now saying for the precise reason that he has not had “4 poor years.”

Recruiters wouldn’t give a sh!t if you told them a player was going to gain AA selection or be named in the squad at some point. Otherwise Darcy Byrne-Jones would be worth the same as Josh Kelly and Charlie Cameron, from the same 2013 draft and more than all of these players: Sheed! Tom Boyd, who have both been crucial parts of Premiership wins, plus Salem, McStay - who is about to get a long term contract @ $600k, George Hewett, Toby Nankervis, Alex Pearce, Tom Barass, Ben Brown, James Sicily, Karl Amon, another who has just won a big contract, Matt Taberner, James Harmes. And he isn’t as good as or better than any of them.

Dangerfield has 8 AA selections and Dustin Martin has 4. And on the thread comparing their careers after 2020, there wasn’t even a Cats supporter left standing prepared to say Dangerfield has had a better career. Recruiters would barely register any interest in how many AA selections a player might get. And in any event, being miles off AA selection at 22yo, didn’t stop Tyson Stengle from being selected in the AA team at 23. Players come from nowhere to win selection in that fiasco every year. If Brisbane offered Rayner up for trade for pick 20 now they would get their hand snapped off. Every club would pay that for him without hesitation.

Your definition of next to useless seems to be applicable to Rayner but not applicable to someone like Charlie Spargo who Rayner is, was and will always be better than. He has been an automatic selection in a strong Brisbane side since he was drafted. That is not “next to useless.”

Fritsch wouldn’t go for a single figure pick if recruiters knew his record in advance. He averages 4 contested possessions per game. He takes uncontested marks and gets on the end of just about every time Melbourne break the play up causing an extra player. He converts well and is a good leading target if there isn’t too much traffic. Nobody is coughing up a top 10 pick for that. That equates to a late first round pick and that is only for clubs looking for that type of player. I doubt Richmond would even look at him and I have no doubt some other clubs would be the same.

Jack Gunston is probably the AFL prototype for this skinny undersized non-genuine key forward like Fritsch, and his career is comfortably better than anything Fritsch looks like achieving. He was traded for around the value of pick 22 after 2 seasons in the system. At his peak he may have been worth a fringe top 10 pick. Fritsch is worth less than that.

Rayner’s ultimate value is yet to be decided. Nothing he has or hasn’t done to this point is going to stain his career, that is for sure. But right now, I think at least some clubs would give up a fringe top 10 pick for him and take their chances on him becoming an elite player.

 

[Ginnieboy]

Is Rayner on the trade table?

 

[Ginnieboy]

Your first sentence again shows you don't understand. Trade value now? so you conveniently skip over the 4 poor years?

Let's look at it this way. There have been 4-5 All Australian or squad calibre players taken in the draft. For Rayner to break even, just break even, he would need to have 1 AA calibre season ('squad would be suffice). That's assuming none of the other players get a 2nd AA. He is miles off that.

If Rayner went for a trade, he'd probably get an early 2nd round pick. Say 19-22.

If all the AFL clubs had a crystal ball on 2017 draft night and saw that he was next to useless (injuries or otherwise) for the first 4 years I'd say he goes for about late 2nd round i.e 30-36. If recruiters knew that after 4 years he had shown an inability to make it as a forward or as a mid and would be stuck in a hybrid role getting 14 touches a game then i'm sorry but they aren't touching him until maybe 30.

Conversely if recruiters had a crystal ball and were told that Fritsch would be a back to back 50 goal/yr goal kicker, AA squad nominee and kick 6 goals in a granny, he's going early to mid first round (Pick 5-9).

Same can be said for many of the other gun players taken in the first round.

The ceiling that you're hoping and praying that rayner hits, is a level that many other players in his draft have already hit.

Look at Horne Francis, as usual was projected to be the second coming of Christ and went at 1, realistically isn’t top 10 after one year based on shown ability, not top 20 when factoring in attitude, but North will cling to him like grim death, it’s incredible how much latitude these high end draft picks get.

Example, Oliver Henry was drafted the same year as Rayner, Henry was a late first round pick, stats are almost identical so far, similar types too, brought it up that both were of equal value now on the draft board and was laughed at, literally laughed at, incredible.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Is Rayner on the trade table?

No.

Considering his hypothetical trade value is just a way of sharpening people’s senses to his value rather than being misled by the likes of danster168 into believing he has proven himself worthless by not entering the AFL system at 18 as a ready made superstar.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Look at Horne Francis, as usual was projected to be the second coming of Christ and went at 1, realistically isn’t top 10 after one year based on shown ability, not top 20 when factoring in attitude, but North will cling to him like grim death, it’s incredible how much latitude these high end draft picks get.

Example, Oliver Henry was drafted the same year as Rayner, Henry was a late first round pick, stats are almost identical so far, similar types too, brought it up that both were of equal value now on the draft board and was laughed at, literally laughed at, incredible.

Not sure if you are being serious. Henry was drafted 3 years after Rayner. Rayner’s career stats are way ahead of Henry’s, as we might expect for a player with 3 extra years in the system up against a player who has only played as an 18 & 19yo. They have not played the exact same roles either, Rayner has spent much more time than Henry away from goal range.

If you are wondering what Henry would be worth in a trade, my guess is something close to where he was drafted, around a late first round pick. To date you would say he has neither exceeded nor fallen short of reasonable expectations for a pick 17 in his first two seasons. He has certainly shown some promise. Rayner would have greater value even if they were expected to have similar careers because he is about to enter his prime where Henry has about 3 years development required to get to that point. Here is their career stats comparisons:

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Here is the comparison of Henry’s and Rayner’s second years, Rayner is ahead in most areas but Henry is averaging more goals per game. overall you would probably say Rayner was tracking slightly better at the same point:

 

[Ginnieboy]

That is seriously funny. A player who has had “4 poor years” wouldn’t be worth too much in a trade Danster. Rayner would fetch a pick well above where you originally rated him and well above where you are now saying for the precise reason that he has not had “4 poor years.”

Recruiters wouldn’t give a sh!t if you told them a player was going to gain AA selection or be named in the squad at some point. Otherwise Darcy Byrne-Jones would be worth the same as Josh Kelly and Charlie Cameron, from the same 2013 draft and more than all of these players: Sheed! Tom Boyd, who have both been crucial parts of Premiership wins, plus Salem, McStay - who is about to get a long term contract @ $600k, George Hewett, Toby Nankervis, Alex Pearce, Tom Barass, Ben Brown, James Sicily, Karl Amon, another who has just won a big contract, Matt Taberner, James Harmes. And he isn’t as good as or better than any of them.

Dangerfield has 8 AA selections and Dustin Martin has 4. And on the thread comparing their careers after 2020, there wasn’t even a Cats supporter left standing prepared to say Dangerfield has had a better career. Recruiters would barely register any interest in how many AA selections a player might get. And in any event, being miles off AA selection at 22yo, didn’t stop Tyson Stengle from being selected in the AA team at 23. Players come from nowhere to win selection in that fiasco every year. If Brisbane offered Rayner up for trade for pick 20 now they would get their hand snapped off. Every club would pay that for him without hesitation.

Your definition of next to useless seems to be applicable to Rayner but not applicable to someone like Charlie Spargo who Rayner is, was and will always be better than. He has been an automatic selection in a strong Brisbane side since he was drafted. That is not “next to useless.”

Fritsch wouldn’t go for a single figure pick if recruiters knew his record in advance. He averages 4 contested possessions per game. He takes uncontested marks and gets on the end of just about every time Melbourne break the play up causing an extra player. He converts well and is a good leading target if there isn’t too much traffic. Nobody is coughing up a top 10 pick for that. That equates to a late first round pick and that is only for clubs looking for that type of player. I doubt Richmond would even look at him and I have no doubt some other clubs would be the same.

Jack Gunston is probably the AFL prototype for this skinny undersized non-genuine key forward like Fritsch, and his career is comfortably better than anything Fritsch looks like achieving. He was traded for around the value of pick 22 after 2 seasons in the system. At his peak he may have been worth a fringe top 10 pick. Fritsch is worth less than that.

Rayner’s ultimate value is yet to be decided. Nothing he has or hasn’t done to this point is going to stain his career, that is for sure. But right now, I think at least some clubs would give up a fringe top 10 pick for him and take their chances on him becoming an elite player.

Oliver Henry would get ‘our hand snapped off’ too?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Oliver Henry would get ‘our hand snapped off’ too?

We are probably about to find out. You would have to think there would be multiple clubs interested in trading a late teens to early 20’s pick for him.

 

[Ginnieboy]

Here is the comparison of Henry’s and Rayner’s second years, Rayner is ahead in most areas but Henry is averaging more goals per game. overall you would probably say Rayner was tracking slightly better at the same point:

View attachment 1513144

Henry is almost doubling Rayner for goals.

 

[Ginnieboy]

As I said I had a debate on the trading board about it, some Carlton mod said YEAH, HENRY CAN’T EVEN GET GAME HAHAHA, I responded with ‘Do you think Rayner would get a game at Collingwood? He never replied.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Henry is almost doubling Rayner for goals.

True, but it is far from the only stat. Year 2 for both it was 1.7 Henry v 1.1 goals + goal assists. Partially this is due to slight differences in their roles, which also shows out in the following.

Rayner leads:

contested possessions 4.6 v 3.

disposals 9.5 v 8.1

tackles 2.2 v 0.9

Effective disposals, Disposal efficiency, score involvements, clearances, metres gained and intercepts, Rayner leads all those on a year 2 v year 2 basis.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

As I said I had a debate on the trading board about it, some Carlton mod said YEAH, HENRY CAN’T EVEN GET GAME HAHAHA, I responded with ‘Do you think Rayner would get a game at Collingwood? He never replied.

Rayner would walk into any team right now. He has the ability to do things most others players never do at any stage in their careers, can smash packs and win big contests even when outnumbered. This is why he is valuable. Henry is only a second year player. Just because he isn’t getting a game now doesn’t mean much. Collingwood were ultimately a top 4 team, and he was right on the fringe of the team. Players can just suddenly improve loads any time from 20 onwards but i would think Henry is a little away from being a nailed on best 22 player in a strong team. He can definitely play though, if a club liked that type of hybrid forward and they didn’t mind spending another year or two developing him, I am pretty sure they would take him for a pick in the range we mentioned.

 

[Ginnieboy]

True, but it is far from the only stat. Year 2 for both it was 1.7 Henry v 1.1 goals + goal assists. Partially this is due to slight differences in their roles, which also shows out in the following.

Rayner leads:

contested possessions 4.6 v 3.

disposals 9.5 v 8.1

tackles 2.2 v 0.9

Effective disposals, Disposal efficiency, score involvements, clearances, metres gained and intercepts, Rayner leads all those on a year 2 v year 2 basis.

Rayner would walk into any team right now. He has the ability to do things most others players never do at any stage in their careers, can smash packs and win big contests even when outnumbered. This is why he is valuable. Henry is only a second year player. Just because he isn’t getting a game now doesn’t mean much. Collingwood were ultimately a top 4 team, and he was right on the fringe of the team. Players can just suddenly improve loads any time from 20 onwards but i would think Henry is a little away from being a nailed on best 22 player in a strong team. He can definitely play though, if a club liked that type of hybrid forward and they didn’t mind spending another year or two developing him, I am pretty sure they would take him for a pick in the range we mentioned.

Who’s he replace in Collingwood’s team? He might walk into your side though.

Funny how things work out isn’t it, one minute your winning flags hand over fist and the next you’re being trolled by a fan who lost a prelim success is fleeting.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Who’s he replace in Collingwood’s team? He might walk into your side though.

Funny how things work out isn’t it, one minute your winning flags hand over fist and the next you’re being trolled by a fan who lost a prelim success is fleeting.

This is who Rayner would replace in the Collingwood side:





Success is indeed fleeting for a club that is 2/3rds of the way to going 100 years with one single Grand Final victory.

 

[Checkered]

We really arguing that Rayner wouldn't get in to a side above Trent Bianco now? Cooked

 

[Mikevk123]

Better than McGrath


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[danster168]

Crows’ message to star amid calls to trade him; how No.1 pick can unlock Lions deals: Trade Whispers

Meteoric Rise he just be going well if he's being discussed as a trade option.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Crows’ message to star amid calls to trade him; how No.1 pick can unlock Lions deals: Trade Whispers

Meteoric Rise he just be going well if he's being discussed as a trade option.

About as well as Luke Jackson then.

 

[danster168]

About as well as Luke Jackson then.

you mean the guy that we were desperate to stay? meanwhile Brisbane trying to trade Rayner. Lol. but why would they given his talent?

 

[JasRulz63]

you mean the guy that we were desperate to stay? meanwhile Brisbane trying to trade Rayner. Lol. but why would they given his talent?

If you're going to believe everything that spews out of Trade Radio, you're in for a long few weeks...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

you mean the guy that we were desperate to stay? meanwhile Brisbane trying to trade Rayner. Lol. but why would they given his talent?

Of all the idiotic posts you have made in this thread danster, these last 2 are right up there.

1. there is no evidence the Lions have any intention of trading Rayner

2. given Rayner is about to enter his prime after a very decent season, it is highly doubtful any club would want to trade out such a player

3. if he was traded then we would get a good look at how your assessment of him being worth pick 30 stands up.

My guess is Lions trade their 2022 & 2023 first rounders for Dunkley and get a 2nd round pick back from the Mutts, and maybe even another later 2022 pick for the points. They then trade out some less established or less valuable players like Tom Berry for example, possibly Dev Robertson but I doubt it, and they will get a pick in the low 20’s as compo for McStay. This way the Lions will build sufficient points to bid for their father sons without going too far into deficit, if at all. They retain all their best players, and lose McStay plus one or two fringe players, while adding the two quality father-sons and Dunkley. Other clubs will also happily trade them surplus points in lower picks for any earlier picks they have. So the McStay compo for example might be pick 20 worth 912 points, a club could possibly trade up to about 1400 points in later picks for that pick. The Lions I am guessing might need 3500 points max to match the 2 f/s’s. So you add that McStay haul to their 900 odd points they currently hold they would need to locate around another 1000 points to not fall into deficit. Trading Robertson would just about wipe that out, or trading Berry would make a decent dent in it.

Trading out Rayner or Bailey or any of these valuable players should not be necessary at all. So I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for them to trade Rayner out.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Haha, Danster believes trade radio rumours.

Cringe.

 

[danster168]

Of all the idiotic posts you have made in this thread danster, these last 2 are right up there.

1. there is no evidence the Lions have any intention of trading Rayner

2. given Rayner is about to enter his prime after a very decent season, it is highly doubtful any club would want to trade out such a player

3. if he was traded then we would get a good look at how your assessment of him being worth pick 30 stands up.

My guess is Lions trade their 2022 & 2023 first rounders for Dunkley and get a 2nd round pick back from the Mutts, and maybe even another later 2022 pick for the points. They then trade out some less established or less valuable players like Tom Berry for example, possibly Dev Robertson but I doubt it, and they will get a pick in the low 20’s as compo for McStay. This way the Lions will build sufficient points to bid for their father sons without going too far into deficit, if at all. They retain all their best players, and lose McStay plus one or two fringe players, while adding the two quality father-sons and Dunkley. Other clubs will also happily trade them surplus points in lower picks for any earlier picks they have. So the McStay compo for example might be pick 20 worth 912 points, a club could possibly trade up to about 1400 points in later picks for that pick. The Lions I am guessing might need 3500 points max to match the 2 f/s’s. So you add that McStay haul to their 900 odd points they currently hold they would need to locate around another 1000 points to not fall into deficit. Trading Robertson would just about wipe that out, or trading Berry would make a decent dent in it.

Trading out Rayner or Bailey or any of these valuable players should not be necessary at all. So I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for them to trade Rayner out.

1. The fact that there is even an article about him shows that he is considered expendable. You don't get these sort of articles about Fritsch, Oliver, Petracca, etc.
2. It would be for all of the reasons outlined in the link I sent.
3. Incorrect. The pick offered for Rayner would be a reflection of what they see his value going forward. It isn't a reflection of what he's done in the last 5 years. Which is little. i.e. total value given since being drafted. Rayner is about 30 in his draft from day of drafted.

I didn't say that I think it will happen. But the fact that articles are written about him show that he probably isn't quite the player you make him out to be. And as the article says, he can't play midfield and he is an average forward.

 

[danster168]

Haha, Danster believes trade radio rumours.

Cringe.

When did I say I believe that Rayner would get traded? Please show me. I'll await your reply.

But the fact that that article exists shows that he's not rated very highly. If he was that good, you wouldn't find any sports reporter in the land suggesting a team trade a good young player unless its a salary dump or behavioural issues.

Brisbane may be able to get a late first rounder for him. Cash in I reckon!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

1. The fact that there is even an article about him shows that he is considered expendable. You don't get these sort of articles about Fritsch, Oliver, Petracca, etc.
2. It would be for all of the reasons outlined in the link I sent.
3. Incorrect. The pick offered for Rayner would be a reflection of what they see his value going forward. It isn't a reflection of what he's done in the last 5 years. Which is little. i.e. total value given since being drafted. Rayner is about 30 in his draft from day of drafted.

I didn't say that I think it will happen. But the fact that articles are written about him show that he probably isn't quite the player you make him out to be. And as the article says, he can't play midfield and he is an average forward.

Breathtaking use of mere speculation by people not involved with Brisbane FC or any other FC as evidence of how Rayner is rated by those who matter.

You rating of players draft position value based solely on what they have achieved so far in their careers is obviously pointless. It is not what I asked you to do and in any event it requires all players to be at the same stage of their career to be any sort of fair comparison. Beside that you f*cked your rating totally even by your own pointless method where you rated Charlie Spargo way ahead of Rayner based on what they had done to that point in their careers, and Rayner had demonstrably done better.

But you need to nail your colours to the mast with Rayner. What pick would he be worth in a trade right here right now? Is he going to turn out a useless pick, or will he be one of the top 5, 10, 15 or 20 players in his draft when all is said and done? You are p1sspoor enough at predicting the past, but have a go at predicting the future like the rest of us danster, put your disgraceful reputation on the line.