Cam Rayner

[danster168]

Let's see what a less biased, totally objective system of ratings says about the 2017 draft crop right now then shall we Danster? You know, the one that takes into account all offensive and defensive performance, plus contest and efficiency stats, plus impact, based on average 2024 performance....

1. Uniacke 15.45
2. Xerri 14.86
3. DeKoning 14.63
4. Worpel 14.48
5. Richards 13.70
6. Meek 13.47
7. T Kelly 12.87
8. Miers 12.73
9. Dyl Moore 12.71
10. Andrew Brayshaw 12.07
11. L Baker 11.29
12. B Miller 11.24
13. Naughton 11.18
14. Cerra 11.13
15. Bailey 11.09
16. Higgins 10.80
17. Switkowski 10.76
18. Daniels 10.74
19. Rayner 10.35
20. D Fogarty 10.09
21. Guelfi 10.07
22. S Taylor 10.01
23. W Powell 10.00
24. K Farrell 9.81
25. T McCartin 9.52
26. Barely Avfritsch 9.09
27. L Fogarty 9.07
28. P Dow 9.00
29. H Clark 8.56
30. L Ryan 8.55
31. Ballard 8.53
32. Mihocek 8.52
33. Balta 8.32
34. L Murphy 7.6
35. J Payne 7.16
36. B Zerk 7.06
37. J Stephenson 6.65
38. Petrucelle 6.48
39. Starcevich 6.39
40. J Amartey 5.68
41. Coleman-Jones 4.07
42. B Paton 3.47
43. H Petty 3.11
44. C Spargo 2.50
45. Coffield 2.27
46. O Allen 2.11


Of the players turning 25yo this year(born 1999), ie the natural bottom age for the 2017 draft, Rayner rates 16th on 2024 average performance. Petty rates 44th, Spargo 45th. And there are 47 players born 1999 playing. For disposals in this age group, Rayner rates 17th in 2024. For goals he rates 10th. For goal assists he rates 13th. For contsted possessions he rates 12th. For offensive 1 v 1 contest win % he rates 8th. Contested marks 14th. Centre clearances 12th. Total clearances 12th. Tackles 16th. Pressure acts 12th. So if you rate Rayner on his 2024 performance, he is somewhere in the mid to high teens for his age group overall.

If you put all these guys into a trade auction at the end of this season, that is where Rayner would go, in the 15-20 range. A bit below my prediction of 10th that was made a couple of years ago on this thread. Way above Dan's prediction of 30th.

Fritsch of course would go nowhere near Dan's prediction of 4th. He would struggle to fetch a bid in the top 30 from this deep and even draft crop.

Of the players born 1996, turning 28yo this year, Barely Avfritsch rates 21st of the 39 players that have played based on 2024 performance. But he has made a huge leap forward, going from the 5th best performed player on Melbourne's list from this age group, to the 4th best, due to Langdon's dramatic drop in ratings. Still, we might have to change his name from Barely Avfritsch to Below Avfritsch.

B. Miller is better than S. Taylor. Great stats

 

[danster168]

When danster168 rated this draft crop a couple of years ago he did not have Ed Richards in his top 30, but had Barely Avfritsch ranked 4th, Spargo 17th and Petty 21st from memory. Woops.

Fritsch is still top 5 based on what they've achieved in their careers. 50 goals in multiple seasons. You're getting sucked in by recency bias of the current season. And guess who is top 10 in the league for goals. Fritta!

I'd love to see you top 35 for the 2017 draft. Based on what players have produced over the 8 years.

 

[Elixuh]

Is Spargo likely to get delisted this year Danny? It'll be a fall from grace given you used to tell us how much better he was than Rayner.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

B. Miller is better than S. Taylor. Great stats

Based on objective performance this year that is what it is Danster. Based on tradeable value, of course Taylor has a much higher value as everybody understands his 2024 ratings are effected by in game injuries, and lingering effects of earlier injuries.

Nobody is claiming 16 rounds worth of ratings perfectly reflects the value of all players. But those doing well in the ratings this year will tend to have a higher trade value at the end of this year than those doing poorly in the ratings.

Ie Rayner v Spargo. In a theoretical spill of all these players, Rayner probably get bids of pick 15 or thereabouts, Spargo would go undrafted.

 

[Miller1971]

Would expect Rayner is traded for a late first rounder or multiple late 2nd rounders this off-season as the Lions begin to prepare to match bids for Annable and Bridge.

 

[southern_crusher]

How has such a shit irrelevant player got a thread 135 pages long.

 

[werdna78]

How has such a shit irrelevant player got a thread 135 pages long.

Both sides are arguing their points and are prepared to die on their respective hills.

And no matter what points, each party brings to justify their argument, the otherside will use said points, to justify their argument.

 

[danster168]

Based on objective performance this year that is what it is Danster. Based on tradeable value, of course Taylor has a much higher value as everybody understands his 2024 ratings are effected by in game injuries, and lingering effects of earlier injuries.

Nobody is claiming 16 rounds worth of ratings perfectly reflects the value of all players. But those doing well in the ratings this year will tend to have a higher trade value at the end of this year than those doing poorly in the ratings.

Ie Rayner v Spargo. In a theoretical spill of all these players, Rayner probably get bids of pick 15 or thereabouts, Spargo would go undrafted.

So according to you, you think B.Miller is better than Sam Taylor this year?

 

[danster168]

How has such a shit irrelevant player got a thread 135 pages long.

no idea. He's as relevant as a Bailey Laurie.

 

[Happy_Neale]

That's correct because those achievements can never be taken away. And both of them are achievements that can't be dismissed.

How long can you continue to use the AA squad thing? It was 3 years ago. Just asking so I know how long I can use it for Charlie Cameron/Joe Daniher - i.e. actual AA final team forwards. Looking forward to having at least 5-6 years of ammo

 

[Happy_Neale]

Would expect Rayner is traded for a late first rounder or multiple late 2nd rounders this off-season as the Lions begin to prepare to match bids for Annable and Bridge.

I would expect this to not happen.

 

[Happy_Neale]

Based on objective performance this year that is what it is Danster. Based on tradeable value, of course Taylor has a much higher value as everybody understands his 2024 ratings are effected by in game injuries, and lingering effects of earlier injuries.

Nobody is claiming 16 rounds worth of ratings perfectly reflects the value of all players. But those doing well in the ratings this year will tend to have a higher trade value at the end of this year than those doing poorly in the ratings.

Ie Rayner v Spargo. In a theoretical spill of all these players, Rayner probably get bids of pick 15 or thereabouts, Spargo would go undrafted.

Charlie Spargo - never playing well #DansterRatings

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So according to you, you think B.Miller is better than Sam Taylor this year?

I didn't make it up Danster. The ratings people watch very action of every player, then records what they see into an algorithm that assigns points for each type of action, and comes out with their rating.


In 2024

What Miller has done better than Taylor(apart from play 3 more matches):

• Higher player rating
• More disposals
• Higher disposal and kicking efficiency
• Way more metres gained
• More marks
• More score involvements
• Way more disposals per turnover
• Gets involved in more defensive 1 v 1's(exact same loss% as Taylor - 14.8%)
• More pressure acts
• Way more spoils
• Way more 1%ers

What Taylor has done better than Miller:

• Way more contested possessions
• Way more contested marks
• More tackles
• More Coaches votes
• Way more intercept possessions

I have no doubt Taylor is a better player than Miller. And if you took either of Taylor's last 2 seasons he is comfortably ahead of Miller, but then Taylor imo is the best key defender in the AFL so that isn't saying much. But this year, likely due to being hampered, Taylor has been well short of his best, and this has coincided with Miller doing very well, thus Miller's ratings are higher for this season.

 

[danster168]

How long can you continue to use the AA squad thing? It was 3 years ago. Just asking so I know how long I can use it for Charlie Cameron/Joe Daniher - i.e. actual AA final team forwards. Looking forward to having at least 5-6 years of ammo

it can never be taken away. It'll always be relevant because if you make an AA squad then you're elite. There are no bad players in any AA squad. If Rayner makes an AA squad then I would tip my hat but obviously that'll never happen.

 

[danster168]

I didn't make it up Danster. The ratings people watch very action of every player, then records what they see into an algorithm that assigns points for each type of action, and comes out with their rating.


In 2024

What Miller has done better than Taylor(apart from play 3 more matches):

• Higher player rating
• More disposals
• Higher disposal and kicking efficiency
• Way more metres gained
• More marks
• More score involvements
• Way more disposals per turnover
• Gets involved in more defensive 1 v 1's(exact same loss% as Taylor - 14.8%)
• More pressure acts
• Way more spoils
• Way more 1%ers

What Taylor has done better than Miller:

• Way more contested possessions
• Way more contested marks
• More tackles
• More Coaches votes
• Way more intercept possessions

I have no doubt Taylor is a better player than Miller. And if you took either of Taylor's last 2 seasons he is comfortably ahead of Miller, but then Taylor imo is the best key defender in the AFL so that isn't saying much. But this year, likely due to being hampered, Taylor has been well short of his best, and this has coincided with Miller doing very well, thus Miller's ratings are higher for this season.

Well obviously Taylor is 10 times the player, hampered or not. I still have no idea where you pull these ratings from. Clearly they're whack.

 

[danster168]

Based on objective performance this year that is what it is Danster. Based on tradeable value, of course Taylor has a much higher value as everybody understands his 2024 ratings are effected by in game injuries, and lingering effects of earlier injuries.

Nobody is claiming 16 rounds worth of ratings perfectly reflects the value of all players. But those doing well in the ratings this year will tend to have a higher trade value at the end of this year than those doing poorly in the ratings.

Ie Rayner v Spargo. In a theoretical spill of all these players, Rayner probably get bids of pick 15 or thereabouts, Spargo would go undrafted.

Yeah, Spargo hasn't done much. but based on what they've produced thus far in their careers Spargo and Rayner have done about the same. You love talking about trade value because you're obsessed with looking into the future and hell bent on ignoring the 6 trash seasons that Rayner has put up.


If Rayner, one day produced 50 goal season, or a 25 touch per game season (lol) that doesn't take away him not producing over a 6 year period.

People saying he has been 'marvelous' just about sums up how low the bar is set. People celebrating over a 9 possession game...it's embarrassing. He plays on the oppositions worst defenders every single week. Opposition coaches put 0 time into him.

 

[Happy_Neale]

it can never be taken away. It'll always be relevant because if you make an AA squad then you're elite. There are no bad players in any AA squad. If Rayner makes an AA squad then I would tip my hat but obviously that'll never happen.

Got it. Jasper Pittard - forever elite

 

[danster168]

Got it. Jasper Pittard - forever elite

I can just imagine you going through each year back trying to look for 1 player 1 player every 7 years that may not have been up to it.

The ironic thing is Fritsch has kicked more goals than any other Brisbane player over a 4 year period. More than Cameron, Daniher, Hipwood etc. All in the peaks of their careers. He has also produced on the big stage. He continues to hit the scoreboard at elite levels. He was in many peoples AA team earlier this year before he had some down patches.

The irony is that you're trying to bag out Fritsch, a guy who has been elite in the game and still is yet at the same time pump up Rayner, an AFL fringe player who was pathetic on grand final day. He's failed as a defender, a midfielder and now as a forward. Does he hit the scoreboard? No. 1 goal a game. Does he find the footy? No. 14 touches a game. Does he apply defensive pressure? Absolutely not. Is he a big game player? Hell no. Rayner is a poorer version of Gary Rohan and that's being disrespectful to Gary.

As other neutrals have pointed, I have made a very avg afl player relevant via this thread alone. You should be thanking me.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Well obviously Taylor is 10 times the player, hampered or not. I still have no idea where you pull these ratings from. Clearly they're whack.

Those are just the official AFL player ratings Danster. You know, the ones where people watch every action every player does in every match, so they can show people like you how much impact players are actually having over a particular period, just in case you missed it.

You have found an obvious flaw though. They clearly should say Taylor is a better player than Miller, so no matter how well Miller plays or how poorly Taylor plays in any defined period, the ratings should show Taylor has played better.

We are starting to understand how you arrived at this horrendous Fritsch worth pick 4 and Rayner not worth a pick in the 30's disparity Danster. And Spargo worth pick 17.

In Fritsch's highest rating year, in 2022, he was the 32nd highest rated forward to play over 5 matches. This is not elite, it is not anywhere near elite. In 2021 he was the 39th highest rated forward in the AFL. He as the 4th highest rated forward in the Melbourne FC Best & Fairest. Of the forwards who missed less than 12 matches that year for Melbourne, who did he finish ahead of in the B & F? You guessed it Danster, Charlie Spargo. If "kicking 50 goals" in a season made you an elite player then the ratings would reflect this, and/or the club Best & Fairest would reflect it.

He is known as Barely Avfritsch for a very good reason Danster. Pick 4.

 

[ChairmanZia]

He is not a superstar but is doing the right thing as a solid if not very good contributor but what is greatness but the consistent output to help one's team winning.

You don't hear about 2012 no.1 pick whitfield, just that he plays a huge role as a defender for gws withou the highlight packages. Raynor is doing exactly what he's initial role was set out to be...

 

[Happy_Neale]

I can just imagine you going through each year back trying to look for 1 player 1 player every 7 years that may not have been up to it.

The ironic thing is Fritsch has kicked more goals than any other Brisbane player over a 4 year period. More than Cameron, Daniher, Hipwood etc. All in the peaks of their careers. He has also produced on the big stage. He continues to hit the scoreboard at elite levels. He was in many peoples AA team earlier this year before he had some down patches.

The irony is that you're trying to bag out Fritsch, a guy who has been elite in the game and still is yet at the same time pump up Rayner, an AFL fringe player who was pathetic on grand final day. He's failed as a defender, a midfielder and now as a forward. Does he hit the scoreboard? No. 1 goal a game. Does he find the footy? No. 14 touches a game. Does he apply defensive pressure? Absolutely not. Is he a big game player? Hell no. Rayner is a poorer version of Gary Rohan and that's being disrespectful to Gary.

As other neutrals have pointed, I have made a very avg afl player relevant via this thread alone. You should be thanking me.

TLDR
Dylan Shiel - forever elite

 

[danster168]

TLDR
Dylan Shiel - forever elite

He was elite though for 6 years. That's why he demanded 2 first rounders when traded from gws. 6 years of elite service is a great draft selection. You're getting sucked in by recency bias again.

Fritsch is still top 10 in the entire league for goals. Damn elite for a guy that is 188cm. If Rayner was top 10, you'd be frothing. Not many have fritta's skillset. His kicking accuracy, his ability to kick goals on his opposite foot are unmatched.

P.s. you tell me your redrafted 2017 draft. Go up to pick 35 and post it.

 

[paulige]

The ironic thing is Fritsch has kicked more goals than any other Brisbane player over a 4 year period. More than Cameron, Daniher, Hipwood etc. All in the peaks of their careers. He has also produced on the big stage. He continues to hit the scoreboard at elite levels. He was in many peoples AA team earlier this year before he had some down patches.

The irony is that you're trying to bag out Fritsch, a guy who has been elite in the game and still is yet at the same time pump up Rayner, an AFL fringe player who was pathetic on grand final day. He's failed as a defender, a midfielder and now as a forward. Does he hit the scoreboard? No. 1 goal a game. Does he find the footy? No. 14 touches a game. Does he apply defensive pressure? Absolutely not. Is he a big game player? Hell no. Rayner is a poorer version of Gary Rohan and that's being disrespectful to Gary.

2020-2023, Cameron kicked 25 more goals than Frittata. Given Frittata offers literally zero other than goals kicked, this is a shellacking. Daniher and Hipwood also have roles that extend far beyond just finishing off the good work of others - any comparison there is irrelevant.

Rayner offers far more than the stats sheet will tell you. Which is why this fixation with disposals and goals is a little baffling. One example; Cyril Rioli, a truly remarkable player, who averaged 15 disposals and 1.5 goals per game, for his career.

To be clear, I’m not comparing the two - just illustrating the point that numbers are not everything. Sometimes you need to watch players play. There’s no column in the stat sheet for breaking tackles, for example, but it was one of Dusty’s greatest weapons at his peak (and more recently, Harley Reid). A broken tackle and sudden surge forward is one of the best ways to blow open an opposition defence.

Over the last 5 weeks, where Rayner has been able to settle into a role he’s suited to (predominantly forward with bursts through the middle) he’s averaged 1.6 goals, 13.6 disposals, 2.6 clearances, and 3.2 inside 50’s.

By comparison, over his last 5 games, Frittata is going at 1.0, 11.0, 0.2, and 2.2. Of course, I wouldn’t judge him for his low clearance numbers - that would be akin to criticising Rayner for his low disposals numbers - just completely irrelevant to the role he plays.

All in all Rayner seems to be finding his groove - I’d be happy if he continued showing the form he has over the last month. And who knows, the 24 year-old who did an ACL and missed a year at 21 might even still have some improvement left in him..

 

[danster168]

2020-2023, Cameron kicked 25 more goals than Frittata. Given Frittata offers literally zero other than goals kicked, this is a shellacking. Daniher and Hipwood also have roles that extend far beyond just finishing off the good work of others - any comparison there is irrelevant.

Rayner offers far more than the stats sheet will tell you. Which is why this fixation with disposals and goals is a little baffling. One example; Cyril Rioli, a truly remarkable player, who averaged 15 disposals and 1.5 goals per game, for his career.

To be clear, I’m not comparing the two - just illustrating the point that numbers are not everything. Sometimes you need to watch players play. There’s no column in the stat sheet for breaking tackles, for example, but it was one of Dusty’s greatest weapons at his peak (and more recently, Harley Reid). A broken tackle and sudden surge forward is one of the best ways to blow open an opposition defence.

Over the last 5 weeks, where Rayner has been able to settle into a role he’s suited to (predominantly forward with bursts through the middle) he’s averaged 1.6 goals, 13.6 disposals, 2.6 clearances, and 3.2 inside 50’s.

By comparison, over his last 5 games, Frittata is going at 1.0, 11.0, 0.2, and 2.2. Of course, I wouldn’t judge him for his low clearance numbers - that would be akin to criticising Rayner for his low disposals numbers - just completely irrelevant to the role he plays.

All in all Rayner seems to be finding his groove - I’d be happy if he continued showing the form he has over the last month. And who knows, the 24 year-old who did an ACL and missed a year at 21 might even still have some improvement left in him..

Cameron played more games. Fritsch averaged more goals in the 4 year span. Yes, I agree. Fritsch doesn't do anything other than kick goals. He kicks goals and that's what I want my forwards to do.


I agree that stats don't tell the full story but with Rayner they absolutely do. If he was a player like Sam Switkowski who applied defensive pressure then I would factor that in. But Rayner applies 0 defensive pressure and he doesn't make up for it anything. Taking 1 flashy mark doesn't make up for all of the flaws in his game.


Offering up the 'settling into his role' excuse is a little rich. He's had 6 years to settle into a role and the only reason why he was moved around is because he wasn't impacting games in any position. Hell, earlier on in the season Brisbane fans were saying that he's the midfield answer. Now they're saying he's a forward.


Why are you looking at the last 5 weeks? Maybe look at the entire season. Fritsch is 9th in the entire league for goals. Elite. One of the best non key position forwards for goals. Fritsch gets the best defender at the dees. Rayner gets the worst and he scores half the number of goals. But let's not compare Rayner to Fritsch that's ridiculous.

Rayner should be criticised for his low disposal numbers. He gets several midfield opportunities per game and enough cba's to get his hands on it.

An ACL, 3 years ago? Come on now.

 

[paulige]

Cameron played more games. Fritsch averaged more goals in the 4 year span. Yes, I agree. Fritsch doesn't do anything other than kick goals. He kicks goals and that's what I want my forwards to do.


I agree that stats don't tell the full story but with Rayner they absolutely do. If he was a player like Sam Switkowski who applied defensive pressure then I would factor that in. But Rayner applies 0 defensive pressure and he doesn't make up for it anything. Taking 1 flashy mark doesn't make up for all of the flaws in his game.


Offering up the 'settling into his role' excuse is a little rich. He's had 6 years to settle into a role and the only reason why he was moved around is because he wasn't impacting games in any position. Hell, earlier on in the season Brisbane fans were saying that he's the midfield answer. Now they're saying he's a forward.


Why are you looking at the last 5 weeks? Maybe look at the entire season. Fritsch is 9th in the entire league for goals. Elite. One of the best non key position forwards for goals. Fritsch gets the best defender at the dees. Rayner gets the worst and he scores half the number of goals. But let's not compare Rayner to Fritsch that's ridiculous.

Rayner should be criticised for his low disposal numbers. He gets several midfield opportunities per game and enough cba's to get his hands on it.

An ACL, 3 years ago? Come on now.

“The ironic thing is Fritsch has kicked more goals than any other Brisbane player over a 4 year period.”

Again, Charlie has kicked more goals in this time.

That’s remarkably simplistic - do you think all forwards in the AFL are just instructed to “kick goals”? Or do you think that perhaps there is some nuance, and there’s more to it than just “kick goals”…? If not, I suppose the AA team would be easier to select - just pick the top 6 in the Coleman leaderboard.

So stats don’t tell the full story, but they do when it’s convenient to your crusade? Okay.

Rayner has the tools to be a weapon in a few places - but not the tank, and thus consistency. He was certainly the midfield answer when he skittled the Dees at the G, though.

I think the last 5 weeks is reasonably relevant as it provides some recent evidence of how a player is performing. If we want to talk about the season, Rayner is averaging 40 (FORTY) times as many clearances as Fritsch. Far superior!

Averages 5.2 CBA’s in the last 5 weeks. Compared to Neale at 26.8, it’s really not a whole lot?

A little outrageous of me to suggest a 24 year-old who sat out a year with an ACL might not have reached his peak, I know, but I said it and I can’t take it back.