Can Efficient win the CUP?

[cleveland]

Is a huge ask for a 3 year old to go from a maiden win up the bush to a Melbourne Cup win in his first prepartion. This horse is special as can be seen by the win today.

Can he win the cup and why?

 

[angus6]

Is a huge ask for a 3 year old to go from a maiden win up the bush to a Melbourne Cup win in his first prepartion. This horse is special as can be seen by the win today.

Can he win the cup and why?

no i dont think he can win but he can run probably top 8! this years race is very weak. i can see him getting back a fair way and storming home along the fence to finish about 6th!

 

[sethlad]

I havent really seen enough of him,can he race more forward?

Big win today,just not sure what was chasing him.
Massive ask in his 1st preparation.

seth

 

[bluey17]

Nah, far too much to ask of a horse to win the cup in its first prep. To back up after today for the 3200 on tuesday is just too much. Horse of the future, no doubt but shouldn't be run on tuesday.

 

[cleveland]

The way he exploded today when he found some room was amazing. He is a geniune stayer with a freakish turn of foot. the thing im worried about is how he pulls up. It looks as though he should get the 3200m if right. He is better than 3/4 of these plodders in the race so if he gets some nice cover and sees daylight early in the straight he might be a chance

 

[cleveland]

I havent really seen enough of him,can he race more forward?

Big win today,just not sure what was chasing him.
Massive ask in his 1st preparation.

seth

He will get back, but should get some nice cover having drawn barrier 8.

 

[chooker]

Should be at about $6 when they jump.

Should run out the 3200m easy, had a lot left when it hit the line today.

Horse of the future....Horse of the 2006 Melbourne Cup!

 

[Dingster]

How does this horse compare to Nothing Leica Dame? Didn't it run a place in the Cup early on?

In any case, it's a big ask. Would be a romantic story for Cup folklore if it gets up though.

 

[cleveland]

Yes Nothin leica Dane ran a 2nd or 3rd to Vintage Crop or Jeune (cant remember) I was thinking the same. Is Efficient a better horse?????? This is a weak field compared to previous years. Theres no Diva

 

[sethlad]

Pretty sure it was Doriemus,dashed clear & run down

seth

 

[cleveland]

might have been him. I know i was there that day but i get mixed up as i went about 10 years in a row.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Pretty sure it was Doriemus,dashed clear & run down

seth

It was Doriemus, 1995.

NLD only ever won one further race in his career after the Cup which was first up the next preparation. They took him to France & that was the beginning of the end.

 

[sethlad]

From memory he started fave in Saintly's Aust Cup in 1996

seth

 

[AAMI]

I would love to see Efficient win the Cup. He is, as Bruce said on the TV today, "likely to be something ... a bit special".

Can't believe I was looking at the Unitab odds at the start of the day and they were offering 70/1 for the winner of the Derby for the Cup. I thought about it ... and decided against it

 

[Angus1]

I would generally say that a 3 year old can't win a Melbourne Cup but this one is different. The only problem i can see with Efficient winning the cup is that it won over 2500m today and it has to back it up with a 3200m run in only 3 days time. I think that is a tough ask for any horse let alone a 3 year.
If Efficient didn't run today then i believe it would have a reasonable chance of winning the cup but of course if it didn't run today then they wouldn't even think of a cup so there it is.
Why i think this horse is so good is because last week it's run in the AAMI Vase was simply outstanding. I think most of us were pretty impressed with FOO flying home to beat the very smart El Segundo who many including myself thought was the best horse in the country. Well as good as that race was Efficients time was actually faster. Then he comes out today sat back and then when Rodd had a gap he went outside and just put the pedal down. When was the last time you seen a horse accelerate in such a short space of time as Efficient did today?
Ok i backed him today and maybe I'm a bit over the top but he is possibly good enough to win a Melbourne Cup but.......hell he's up against a few good internationals in Tawqeet, Yeats and Pop Rock and 3200m ??? but i would expect him to get within the first 8 which would be pretty impressive.
Nothin Leica Dane came 2nd so anything is possible.

If it was my horse i would send him off to the paddock for a well earned rest. He'll win heaps next autumn.

 

[Tim56]

I have had a look at Efficient's sectional times and I am not keen on him for the Cup.

Firstly, the time they ran in the Derby was very slow, at least relative to the Saab. 2:38.35 (Derby) v 2:35.86 (Saab) Give or take, a second = 6 or 7 lengths. So that's about 15 or 20 lengths quicker in the Saab than the Derby. Plus the track was drying out little by little throughout the day.

Maybe Better ran home his last 600m in 35.97, off a considerably faster pace, under 57. This was a most impressive performance. Efficient ran his last 600m in 35.22, also impressive, but the reality is that any half decent 3YO should be able to run that sort of time off a farcically slow pace. The performances by the leaders were ordinary - they are an awful bunch of horses, and Efficient had every right to run them down, especially with the ride he had.

Efficient clearly has class, but whether he can stay 3200m I don't know, and it isn't really possible to say off this run, because he didn't have any kind of staying test. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about or is a liar. They walked, and he outsprinted them. However, bearing in mind that he is not especially well weighted, is only very lightly raced, unproven in a genuine staying race, and is, of course, only 3YO, I would be prepared to bet against him.

 

[Lockyer24]

Comparing the Saab times and splits was the first thing I did today Tim, suprised me a little the SAAB was run 3 seconds quicker but Efficient's closing sectionals were superior than Maybe Better's. Remembering he ran a quicker time than the Cox last week so it's all relative. The big question obviously is can he bring it home with the extra 700m and a truly run race, I always thought that was required for a good swooper to win.

Ive been on him every start (except last week when I was a smart arse and had him one out in a First 4 and failed) and he's the only one Ive been on going in with winning form. I bet more with my heart than my head so I dare say Ill be on him Tuesday.

PS I spose closing sectionals can be meaningless, just ask Divine Madonna again, massive final 200m but gave too far a start!

 

[Tim56]

Yeah his sectionals were better but he was carrying less weight and off a much slower pace. Divine Madonna could win a Doncaster or a Stradbroke, or more likely, an Emirates next week. Outstanding mare.

 

[roostertalk]

Divine Madonna is another "god's own" and "on a jeune" will continue to tease us and raise hopes with their meaningless sizzling sectionals. Ultimate multiples horses. On a jeune will fly home for a place again this year.
Efficent will be bold, but wont win. Shouldnt be capable of beating tawqeet, yeats and pop rock.