Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Rusty Brookes]

Impey is an important player as can break lines and move the ball quickly.

He didn't look right last night. Might be carrying an injury or lacking match fitness

Why Clarkson left him stagnating in the forward line last night is beyond me.

Hopefully now, we'll see him pull the trigger. Move the underperforming old blokes on - Scully, Stratton, Shiels. The latter two have been terrific servants of the club but they are on the downside of their careers. Accept that Tim O'Brien is not the answer up forward - he has no presence and no hurt factor. Harry Morrison is just bland. Play the kids - Jiath, Ross, Kosi, Moore, Jones, Glass - leave them in so they get a decent run. If they don't perform then fine - but continuing with this mediocre, conservative lineup is doing absolutely nothing.

 

[juss]

the most interesting question is what he does with the older players, not old enough to retire yet, but guys that won't be part of their next flag given finals dont look likely and the list needs a huge injection of young talent for some tough times ahead.

Can't get rid of all of them, but its just as meaningless to keep all of McEvoy, Frawley, Smith, Ceglar, Gunston, Bruest, Sratton, Puopolo, Henderson in the 22 next year, thats a big chunk of players who arent going to be in their next flag challenge and maybe not even their next finals win.

Secondly to that, guys like Shiels, Wingard, Sicily, Mitchell, Frost, O'Meara around their mid 20s, do they look to trade one or two to get some picks that they desperately need?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Wingard and Impey were very quiet last night against Fremantle and shadows of what they were like as Port players.

Returning from an ACL will probably do that after only 2 games...

 

[La Dispute]

the most interesting question is what he does with the older players, not old enough to retire yet, but guys that won't be part of their next flag given finals dont look likely and the list needs a huge injection of young talent for some tough times ahead.

Can't get rid of all of them, but its just as meaningless to keep all of McEvoy, Frawley, Smith, Ceglar, Gunston, Bruest, Sratton, Puopolo, Henderson in the 22 next year, thats a big chunk of players who arent going to be in their next flag challenge and maybe not even their next finals win.

Secondly to that, guys like Shiels, Wingard, Sicily, Mitchell, Frost, O'Meara around their mid 20s, do they look to trade one or two to get some picks that they desperately need?

They need to be open to the idea of trading out players of value to start re-stocking their list. Someone like Sicily would fetch an early pick, so maybe they could consider him a viable trade option.

JOM could maybe get them a later first rounder/early second rounder. He has some value for the right team, who need another inside bull. I thought Freo might be a decent option. Or Carlton might be keen for the right price.

Wingard's value is set to plummet over the coming years, so Hawthorn should be looking to trade him on at any cost. He's not doing anything for them on field and isn't the kind of player you need on your list while you're rebuilding.

McEvoy, Frawley, Smith, Gunston, Breust wont net them anything, so they may as well keep them. Puopolo and Stratton aren't AFL standard and need to be phased out as soon as possible.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

They need to be open to the idea of trading out players of value to start re-stocking their list. Someone like Sicily would fetch an early pick, so maybe they could consider him a viable trade option.

JOM could maybe get them a later first rounder/early second rounder. He has some value for the right team, who need another inside bull. I thought Freo might be a decent option. Or Carlton might be keen for the right price.

Wingard's value is set to plummet over the coming years, so Hawthorn should be looking to trade him on at any cost. He's not doing anything for them on field and isn't the kind of player you need on your list while you're rebuilding.

McEvoy, Frawley, Smith, Gunston, Breust wont net them anything, so they may as well keep them. Puopolo and Stratton aren't AFL standard and need to be phased out as soon as possible.

Why on earth would you trade a 25 year old Sicily for a pick hoping you can get someone just as good?

He has 7+ years of good footy left in him, he can be apart of our next tilt if we get it right.

 

[La Dispute]

Why on earth would you trade a 25 year old Sicily for a pick hoping you can get someone just as good?

He has 7+ years of good footy left in him, he can be apart of our next tilt if we get it right.

Unless Hawthorn play their cards right there wont be another tilt for another decade. There's far too much deadwood on that list, very few players of value and a whole bunch of senior players who they need to cycle out as soon as possible. On top of that Clarko is still showing no inclination to do the obvious thing and start trying to rebuild though the draft.

The situation is already unraveling. Hawthorn need to wake up and realise unless they start doing something differently they'll continue to be a middle of the road side; which is putting it mildly given their current state.

If they don't do something drastic but necessary like trade Sicily then he too will get to his 30's, Hawthorn will still be nowhere near it and there will be still nothing valuable on their list.

 

[juss]

Why on earth would you trade a 25 year old Sicily for a pick hoping you can get someone just as good?

He has 7+ years of good footy left in him, he can be apart of our next tilt if we get it right.

The point is in order to get the elite young talent they need, they need to trade players with currency. Sicily is 25, but you've got a 3-5 year or more rebuild on the cards. The list is in a terrible spot devoid of young talent and the old guys aren't getting it done.

I posted the below early in the thread and Hawks fans laughed at me:

Good team and old list = Good
Good team and young list = Better

Bad team and young list = bad/can be acceptable
Bad team and old list = Worst.

The Hawks are in the bolded category, which needs a significant action.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Unless Hawthorn play their cards right there wont be another tilt for another decade. There's far too much deadwood on that list, very few players of value and a whole bunch of senior players who they need to cycle out as soon as possible. On top of that Clarko is still showing no inclination to do the obvious thing and start trying to rebuild though the draft.

The situation is already unraveling. Hawthorn need to wake up and realise unless they start doing something differently they'll continue to be a middle of the road side; which is putting it mildly given their current state.

If they don't do something drastic but necessary like trade Sicily then he too will get to his 30's, Hawthorn will still be nowhere near it and there will be still nothing valuable on their list.

I think hitting the Draft last year was a pretty good indicator that Clarko is willing to do it.

We are currently bottom 4, with our list being as bad as you claim we will probably be bottom 4 for the next few years right?

SInce 2015 Carlton have brought in

Weitering, SPS, Setterfield, Kennedy, McKay, Stocker, Walsh, Kemp, Curnow, Marchbank, O'brien

Who are all best 22 or potential best 22 players that were young and first round picks that you acquired through the Draft or trade.

That is leaving out Dow who i don't rate, i may have missed some more i can't be bothered checking exactly where everyone else was drafted.

Look at the sort of list turnover you can have in 5 years, you don't need to completely blow it up just to try and get picks in.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

The point is in order to get the elite young talent they need, they need to trade players with currency. Sicily is 25, but you've got a 3-5 year or more rebuild on the cards. The list is in a terrible spot devoid of young talent and the old guys aren't getting it done.

I posted the below early in the thread and Hawks fans laughed at me:

Good team and old list = Good
Good team and young list = Better

Bad team and young list = bad/can be acceptable
Bad team and old list = Worst.

The Hawks are in the bolded category, which needs a significant action.

And here we get back to the entire point i have made in this thread, logically if it was as simple as that every club would trade out every good player they have and just stock up on 10 first round picks and the rebuild would be complete.

We need to remain competitive in games, not even on the ladder. Kids can not develop well in a losing culture where they are getting smashed week in week out.

 

[juss]

And here we get back to the entire point i have made in this thread, logically if it was as simple as that every club would trade out every good player they have and just stock up on 10 first round picks and the rebuild would be complete.

We need to remain competitive in games, not even on the ladder. Kids can not develop well in a losing culture where they are getting smashed week in week out.

That's silly, no one has said to trade every good player, you can't trade them all, but a few calls need to be made.

What would you suggest the Hawks should/need to do to get out of this hole?

 

[La Dispute]

I think hitting the Draft last year was a pretty good indicator that Clarko is willing to do it.

We are currently bottom 4, with our list being as bad as you claim we will probably be bottom 4 for the next few years right?

SInce 2015 Carlton have brought in

Weitering, SPS, Setterfield, Kennedy, McKay, Stocker, Walsh, Kemp, Curnow, Marchbank, O'brien

Who are all best 22 or potential best 22 players that were young and first round picks that you acquired through the Draft or trade.

That is leaving out Dow who i don't rate, i may have missed some more i can't be bothered checking exactly where everyone else was drafted.

Look at the sort of list turnover you can have in 5 years, you don't need to completely blow it up just to try and get picks in.

Hawthorn were forced to go to the draft last season because no one wanted to join them. If there was a Wingard or JOM standard player available to them they would have flung the Day pick in a heartbeat.

I completely agree you don't need to blow your list up, but it's still better to be building at snail's pace to be either declining our consistently finishing mid-table with no real indication you'll be competitive soon.

We didn't have much of a choice with many players leaving at the end of 2015, and our list already being rubbish. Gibbs requested to be traded to Adelaide 2 years in a row, which we eventually honoured. That has netted us likely 3 best 22 players in TDK, Kennedy and LOB.

The only one we didn't need to get rid of was Tuohy, who we subtly pushed out by lowballing him on his contract renewal. The logic of it was fine though, with Docherty and Simpson playing well and providing leadership in the defensive half.

In Hawthorn's position they need to find some way of squeezing picks in, otherwise they're essentially doing what they've always done and still not really improving their list. Every team gets allocated a first round pick at the end of the year, so relying on that to pull you through isn't enough.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

That's silly, no one has said to trade every good player, you can't trade them all, but a few calls need to be made.

What would you suggest the Hawks should/need to do to get out of this hole?

Well hit the Draft this year, push out the players who are done.

Look for any young players who can potentially be gotten on the cheap. Look at the Lions, Suns, Giants etc who will have youngsters that will not be best 22 and looking for opportunity. Shrinking list sizes could be a good opportunity to find some gems.

A player doesn't have to be part of our next flag to be important part of the club going forward.

 

[Ambrosia]

the most interesting question is what he does with the older players, not old enough to retire yet, but guys that won't be part of their next flag given finals dont look likely and the list needs a huge injection of young talent for some tough times ahead.

Can't get rid of all of them, but its just as meaningless to keep all of McEvoy, Frawley, Smith, Ceglar, Gunston, Bruest, Sratton, Puopolo, Henderson in the 22 next year, thats a big chunk of players who arent going to be in their next flag challenge and maybe not even their next finals win.

Secondly to that, guys like Shiels, Wingard, Sicily, Mitchell, Frost, O'Meara around their mid 20s, do they look to trade one or two to get some picks that they desperately need?

I don't think trading away your best players makes sense unless you can get overs. Hawthorn is clearly at a point where they need to turn the list over but getting rid of players with 5 plus years of top line football is nonsensical. As Richmond fans know a good draft and trade period can transform a list very quickly.

FB: Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
HB: Day - Sicily - Howe
C: Scully - O'Meara - Shiels
R: Ceglar - Mitchell - Worpel
HF: Wingard - Gunston - ????
FF: Bruest - Lewis - Impey
IC: ???? - ???? - ???? - ????

I think the above group while not amazing is good enough that you don't want to blow it up.

My main criticism of the Hawks is they did an Essendon this year and overrated their list. If they had of cut your Burgoyne/Puopolo types and let Smith leave to the dogs the list profile would look significantly better imo.

 

[juss]

I don't think trading away your best players makes sense unless you can get overs. Hawthorn is clearly at a point where they need to turn the list over but getting rid of players with 5 plus years of top line football is nonsensical. As Richmond fans know a good draft and trade period can transform a list very quickly.

FB: Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
HB: Day - Sicily - Howe
C: Scully - O'Meara - Shiels
R: Ceglar - Mitchell - Worpel
HF: Wingard - Gunston - ????
FF: Bruest - Lewis - Impey
IC: ???? - ???? - ???? - ????

I think the above group while not amazing is good enough that you don't want to blow it up.

My main criticism of the Hawks is they did an Essendon this year and overrated their list. If they had of cut your Burgoyne/Puopolo types and let Smith leave to the dogs the list profile would look significantly better imo.

I don't think that's comparable, Richmond had a whole core of good or great players in prime age group. Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury, Houli, Edwards at the end of 2016 before topping up and trading/drafting well. Richmond didn't need an entire rebuild, we just needed a new gameplan to support that core of guns. I don't see comparable quality at the Hawks, but I don't want to turn this into a Richmond thing.

What I'm saying is the Hawks might need to make some calls to get in good picks, but they don't have a heap of currency, so sacrificing a couple of mid 20s players for some gun 18 year olds might need to be the risk to take. Who do they have on their list with trade value?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

I don't think that's comparable, Richmond had a whole core of good or great players in prime age group. Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury, Houli, Edwards at the end of 2016 before topping up and trading/drafting well. Richmond didn't need an entire rebuild, we just needed a new gameplan to support that core of guns. I don't see comparable quality at the Hawks, but I don't want to turn this into a Richmond thing.

What I'm saying is the Hawks might need to make some calls to get in good picks, but they don't have a heap of currency, so sacrificing a couple of mid 20s players for some gun 18 year olds might need to be the risk to take. Who do they have on their list with trade value?

But how do you trade contracted players that as far as we know don’t want to go?

you also need these guys to request a trad because if you push them out no club is going to give up fair value for them.

 

[juss]

But how do you trade contracted players that as far as we know don’t want to go?

you also need these guys to request a trad because if you push them out no club is going to give up fair value for them.

Wanting to go and open to a change achieve the same outcome. Same as any career, not everyone is looking for a new job before an opportunity for a change presents. It's as easy as an end of season meeting, we think it's best for this footy club to look at trading in some younger players/ draft picks, would you be open to a trade if we found a suitable deal? For interstate players it could be as simple as, if we explored a deal favourable for the club would you be open to going home? It's not that hard of a conversation, and as there is every year, there'd be a few open to it.

 

[La Dispute]

I don't think trading away your best players makes sense unless you can get overs. Hawthorn is clearly at a point where they need to turn the list over but getting rid of players with 5 plus years of top line football is nonsensical. As Richmond fans know a good draft and trade period can transform a list very quickly.

FB: Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
HB: Day - Sicily - Howe
C: Scully - O'Meara - Shiels
R: Ceglar - Mitchell - Worpel
HF: Wingard - Gunston - ????
FF: Bruest - Lewis - Impey
IC: ???? - ???? - ???? - ????

I think the above group while not amazing is good enough that you don't want to blow it up.

My main criticism of the Hawks is they did an Essendon this year and overrated their list. If they had of cut your Burgoyne/Puopolo types and let Smith leave to the dogs the list profile would look significantly better imo.

That 22 looks awful in all honesty. Their entire midfield has reached its peak, and for most of those guys their absolute best wasn't even that good. The balance is also completely off, with way too many slow mids with bad footskills.

No real key defenders developing currently. Lewis Mitchell is their only talented key forward, but he has less than 30 games experience. Ceglar is a bad ruckman.

It's just a real mess, with no real light at the end of the tunnel currently. Will Day isn't going to bring him back into contention on his own.

 

[Joao]

I don't think trading away your best players makes sense unless you can get overs. Hawthorn is clearly at a point where they need to turn the list over but getting rid of players with 5 plus years of top line football is nonsensical. As Richmond fans know a good draft and trade period can transform a list very quickly.

FB: Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
HB: Day - Sicily - Howe
C: Scully - O'Meara - Shiels
R: Ceglar - Mitchell - Worpel
HF: Wingard - Gunston - ????
FF: Bruest - Lewis - Impey
IC: ???? - ???? - ???? - ????

I think the above group while not amazing is good enough that you don't want to blow it up.

My main criticism of the Hawks is they did an Essendon this year and overrated their list. If they had of cut your Burgoyne/Puopolo types and let Smith leave to the dogs the list profile would look significantly better imo.

Scully and Ceglar are potatoes and not sure where Howe is at? Hawks fans will know. Shiels seems to have fallen off and I am not sure you can role with all of Mitchell, Worpel and Omeara in the midfield together. Need to trade one or teach one or two of them to contribute elsewhere.

FB: Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
HB: Day - Sicily - Impey
C: ???? - O'Meara - ????
R: ???? - Mitchell - Worpel
HF: Wingard - Gunston - ????
FF: Bruest - Lewis - ????
IC: ???? - ???? - ???? - ????

I rate Lewis but he has a way to go but they need at least 1 more KPF, 1 quality KPD, a decent ruckman, a high quality mid that isn't one paced and/or is highly skilled and to replace both wingers. Not only that, they have to do it within 2-3 years or Bruest and Gunston will be passed it and they will need to replace them as well.

 

[Ambrosia]

I don't think that's comparable, Richmond had a whole core of good or great players in prime age group. Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury, Houli, Edwards at the end of 2016 before topping up and trading/drafting well. Richmond didn't need an entire rebuild, we just needed a new gameplan to support that core of guns. I don't see comparable quality at the Hawks, but I don't want to turn this into a Richmond thing.

What I'm saying is the Hawks might need to make some calls to get in good picks, but they don't have a heap of currency, so sacrificing a couple of mid 20s players for some gun 18 year olds might need to be the risk to take. Who do they have on their list with trade value?

I don’t see a Dustin Martin on the Hawthorn list but outside of that I’d say they are comparable.

I think you’re underselling how important the Caddy, Prestia, Nank selections were. You also added all of Cartagna, Butler, Lambert, Rioli, Broad and Graham to the list within 3 years of the 2017 flag. That’s 9 players from your premiership side added within 3 year of winning the premiership.

Trading away quality players with plenty of good footy left in them makes zero sense imo

 

[juss]

I don’t see a Dustin Martin on the Hawthorn list but outside of that I’d say they are comparable.

I think you’re underselling how important the Caddy, Prestia, Nank selections were. You also added all of Cartagna, Butler, Lambert, Rioli, Broad and Graham to the list within 3 years of the 2017 flag. That’s 9 players from your premiership side added within 3 year of winning the premiership.

Trading away quality players with plenty of good footy left in them makes zero sense imo

Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, you see comparables on the Hawks current list? Wow, I find that shockingly different to my view, but all good.

I think they're in a far deeper hole list-wise than your view, there's not much there that would excite me.

 

[Ambrosia]

That 22 looks awful in all honesty. Their entire midfield has reached its peak, and for most of those guys their absolute best wasn't even that good. The balance is also completely off, with way too many slow mids with bad footskills.

No real key defenders developing currently. Lewis Mitchell is their only talented key forward, but he has less than 30 games experience. Ceglar is a bad ruckman.

It's just a real mess, with no real light at the end of the tunnel currently. Will Day isn't going to bring him back into contention on his own.

See my next post. My point isn’t that’s a good side. My point is that group has plenty of footy left in them and as Richmond, West Coast and Bulldogs have shown the wheel can turn very quickly.

Scully and Ceglar are potatoes and not sure where Howe is at? Hawks fans will know. Shiels seems to have fallen off and I am not sure you can role with all of Mitchell, Worpel and Omeara in the midfield together. Need to trade one or teach one or two of them to contribute elsewhere.

FB: Hardwick - Frost - Scrimshaw
HB: Day - Sicily - Impey
C: ???? - O'Meara - ????
R: ???? - Mitchell - Worpel
HF: Wingard - Gunston - ????
FF: Bruest - Lewis - ????
IC: ???? - ???? - ???? - ????

I rate Lewis but he has a way to go but they need at least 1 more KPF, 1 quality KPD, a decent ruckman, a high quality mid that isn't one paced and/or is highly skilled and to replace both wingers. Not only that, they have to do it within 2-3 years or Bruest and Gunston will be passed it and they will need to replace them as well.

When has a decent ruckman been important for winning a premiership. A grade players are having longer careers than ever so I’d back Gunston and Bruest to play 3 plus years of good footy.

KPDs are no where near as hard as to find as people think Frost, Roughead, Walker, Jones, Keefe, Collins, Hartigan all picked up for peanuts and all playing quality footy in 2020.

 

[Joao]

See my next post. My point isn’t that’s a good side. My point is that group has plenty of footy left in them and as Richmond, West Coast and Bulldogs have shown the wheel can turn very quickly.



When has a decent ruckman been important for winning a premiership. A grade players are having longer careers than ever so I’d back Gunston and Bruest to play 3 plus years of good footy.

KPDs are no where near as hard as to find as people think Frost, Roughead, Walker, Jones, Keefe, Collins, Hartigan all picked up for peanuts and all playing quality footy in 2020.

Well the level below decent is poor, which is where Ceglar is. If you're happy with him then good for you. It's not like I suggested you need Grundy or Gawn.

Agree you can get quality KPDs anywhere in the draft.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think you’d be slightly better, but even if you were still bottom 4 at least you’d be in that position with a bunch of talented young players at your disposal, not littered with has beens and B-graders on inflated contracts.

Clarko is supposed to be a master coach. Surely it isn’t too much to suggest he’d get a young squad to be competitive again quickly?

Anyway, we’ve seen the head in the sand response from Hawks supporters for almost five years now - I’m not sure why Hawks supporters are reluctant to even entertain the possibility things might be better if they’d taken a different course of action.

Still have a very healthy TPP situation.

We are suggesting we support not taking a slash and burn to rebuild solution. He said "we dont JUST use the draft" Bigfootys babel fish language makes this "Crazy Clarko only tops up"

 

[Ambrosia]

Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, you see comparables on the Hawks current list? Wow, I find that shockingly different to my view, but all good.

I think they're in a far deeper hole list-wise than your view, there's not much there that would excite me.

Rance - Sicily
Astbury - Frost (Defensive KPDs are massively overrated imo)
Riewoldt - Gunston
Edwards - Wingard (Edwards wasn’t good until Richmond came good)
Cotchin - Mitchell
Houli - Impey
Vlastuin - Hardwick

No longer like for like in role but of similar quality
Houli - Worpel
Grimes - O’Meara

You’ve also ignored my point about Richmond transforming there side over a 3 year period.

 

[La Dispute]

See my next post. My point isn’t that’s a good side. My point is that group has plenty of footy left in them and as Richmond, West Coast and Bulldogs have shown the wheel can turn very quickly.

When has a decent ruckman been important for winning a premiership. A grade players are having longer careers than ever so I’d back Gunston and Bruest to play 3 plus years of good footy.

KPDs are no where near as hard as to find as people think Frost, Roughead, Walker, Jones, Keefe, Collins, Hartigan all picked up for peanuts and all playing quality footy in 2020.

There's no point having plenty of footy ahead if you're bog average. Outside of Day none of those players look like ever becoming some of the best in their position. The difference with teams like Richmond and the Bulldogs is they had a cluster of talented young players coming through at the same time, built through multiple drafts. The Bulldogs for eg lost guys like Griffin and Ward along the way who'd they'd prefer to keep, but got necessary picks for them. They virtually gave Cooney away, traded Jones who they got the pick for Caleb Daniel for.

The Hawks shouldn't be deliberating on what they need to do. Their list is devoid of talent, and the best way to inject talent into the team is to start looking at who is necessary and who is expendable. Hard calls need to be made on players who will get them some draft picks OR young players at good clubs who are still developing but have shown some promise.

They need to orchestrate their own Burton and Pick for Wingard type trade, somehow.