Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Pessimistic]

The Hawks traded out:

First rounder in 2014
First and second rounder in 2016
First and second rounder in 2017
First and second rounder in 2018

Of course they had picks. Every club gets a pick in every round. They traded them - that’s what their strategy was.

Now of course, you’re not giving them away... you get players in return. But you pay a premium at the trade table. A gun player costs one pick at the draft, or multiple picks and players in a trade.

See O’Meara and Wingard.

The exception is Mitchell which was a fantastic trade, Sydney got absolutely reamed.

First and second round is ‘elite’ is it righto

 

[Gavin Excell]

geelong hardly did that either

Indeed

That's the reality of the system. Hard to stay up there

 

[Pessimistic]

Indeed

That's the reality of the system. Hard to stay up there

clubs seem to peak and trough roughly every seven years. If you go this ridiculous hard rebuild which only existed as a concept for a mere decade out off the afl history, your club won’t realistically get a flag for seven years after your shit period anyway.

‘it’s fools gold

 

[TylerDurden]

15

And you haven't wont a final in that time

 

[MightyHawks]

They'll all be back after beating up on Gold Coast

Honestly I'm not overly confident we'd beat Gold Coast - why do you think we will?

But if we do I'll try and remember to post in this thread just for you

 

[TEDDY24INC]

Selwood gave that Worpel a lesson Friday night, just asserting the pecking order

 

[TylerDurden]

Why does he get all the credit? People make out he has some kind of secret power.

Buck stops with the coach.

 

[TylerDurden]

Comfortable with Clarko at the helm till 2022 ?

Best coach in it? For sure.
Plus he's grooming S Mitchell to take over then, and he needs the guidance.

You happy with Truck?

 

[MightyHawks]

Indeed

That's the reality of the system. Hard to stay up there

And you need a lot of luck

Eagles might have won the flag last year, but then it rained in the Richmond match... add in the R23 loss and ASADA

They didn't even make a prelim but with a bit of luck could have been completely different

If Geelong kicks straight in the second quarter of the Prelim they probably win it last year too

Are we assessing everyones list management strategies on flag = pass, otherwise = fail? And assuming if they'd taken a different course then that would have resulted in a flag

 

[Tig017]

Best coach in it? For sure.
Plus he's grooming S Mitchell to take over then, and he needs the guidance.

You happy with Truck?

It's a shame he'll be forced to inherit a terrible list.

 

[Gavin Excell]

And you need a lot of luck

Eagles might have won the flag last year, but then it rained in the Richmond match... add in the R23 loss and ASADA

They didn't even make a prelim but with a bit of luck could have been completely different

If Geelong kicks straight in the second quarter of the Prelim they probably win it last year too

Are we assessing everyones list management strategies on flag = pass, otherwise = fail? And assuming if they'd taken a different course then that would have resulted in a flag

Luck is big so probably a measure is making top 4. From there anything can happen.

Can a flag be won without high end draft picks is probably the original proposition of this thread

 

[Pessimistic]

Did you forget that's exactly what your team did from 2002-2006? Alzheimer's catching up to you? Should I remind you of all the players your mob picked up in that rebuilding phase that served as the foundation for your success?

What about my team? Won 2 of the last 3 flags, and a lot of it is thanks to young talent we acquired during an extended period at the lower end of the ladder. Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Alex Rance, need I continue?

Meanwhile Crazy Clarko pushes guys like Lake, S.Mitchell and Lewis out the door when they're still a quality team, seemingly on the verge of a rebuild, but then he goes and coughs up all his draft picks and future draft picks for his moneyball fantasy. Even pushes one of your better young players in Burton out the door for Wingard.


Who said anything about a decade? Or even bottoming out at all? How about just not trading away good draft picks? In other words, not trading away a proven formula for the moneyball fantasy of a coach who clearly thinks too highly of himself.

Puopolo still being in your best 22 says it all really. Too old, too slow. The Gold Coast's youth ranks are absolutely, 100% miles better than Hawthorn's. It's not even up for debate.

we had one uncompetitive year. 2004 I define that as percentage below 80
richmond had just one too
So hawthorn is one of a very few teams who made the bottom out work? Ironic.
Prelim finalists in 2001 btw. Maybe you needto bottom out in years with a good draft Rowell Anderson 2019 may be an example

Carlton had the number one pick three years running. Ha ha ha

 

[Hawk Dork]

Would anyone take Hawthorn's list over the Gold Coast's? Besides the usual deranged Hawthorn supporters.

Could have said the same about the Tiges a few years back

 

[TylerDurden]

It's a shame he'll be forced to inherit a terrible list.

May have some elite draft picks then. Boom tish.

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawthorn would never get the access to talent Gold Coast have. Why is anyone Even arguing this in a strategy discussion?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

[/QUOTE]

Luck is big so probably a measure is making top 4. From there anything can happen.

Can a flag be won without high end draft picks is probably the original proposition of this thread

And is a fair question, you also need to again clarify what is high end draft picks and also need to decide whether that is a largely successful method of building lists.

This rebuild may fail but it was worth trying, 10 years on still waiting for the Suns to climb up the ladder, 10 years or so for the Demons as well, Carlton still struggling to climb out of the bottom 4. Once these teams do the reality is most won't even win a premiership with the list they assemble, winning them is dam hard. Trying to eek out another flag with the players we still had was worth a try.

 

[MightyHawks]

Luck is big so probably a measure is making top 4. From there anything can happen.

Can a flag be won without high end draft picks is probably the original proposition of this thread

In 2018 we made the top 4 too - but that doesn't seem to count in this thread...

I agree with "Can a flag be won without high end draft picks is probably the original proposition of this thread" - But the answer in this thread seems to be if you don't actually win a flag then the strategy failed.

I'm sure if we had a season like Collingwoods in 2018, this thread would be full of - yeah you didn't win! - see!

 

[Tig017]

we had one uncompetitive year. 2004 I define that as percentage below 80 So hawthorn is one of a very few teams who made the bottom out work? Prelim finalists in 2001 btw. Maybe you needto bottom out in years with a good draft Rowell Anderson 2019 may be an example

Carlton had the number one pick three years running

Ok, so now you're onto mental gymnastics regarding what constitutes the label "uncompetitive". Yeah let's just forget about the 5-win year in 2005 where you got a priority pick. It's beside the point anyway, which you continue to miss.

Carlton had the number one pick three years running

So? There were 16 teams in the competition, they can't all succeed.
Multiple pick 1s does not guarantee future success. A wide array of excellent picks across multiple years? You'd think a Hawthorn supporter would understand, but by all means, keep believing in Crazy Clarko's new moneyball fantasy.

 

[Tig017]

May have some elite draft picks then. Boom tish.

After several years of scrapping them, leaving you with one of the worst age 21-26 brackets in the AFL in 2022.

 

[MightyHawks]

Hawthorn would never get the access to talent Gold Coast have. Why is anyone Even arguing this in a strategy discussion?

Spoiler: Of course not

O'Meara

 

[Tig017]

In 2018 we made the top 4 too - but that doesn't seem to count in this thread...

I agree with "Can a flag be won without high end draft picks is probably the original proposition of this thread" - But the answer in this thread seems to be if you don't actually win a flag then the strategy failed.

I'm sure if we had a season like Collingwoods in 2018, this thread would be full of - yeah you didn't win! - see!

Collingwood backed their quality up, and today remain one of the best teams in the AFL.
Hawthorn did not, and based on last Friday, look an old, slow, worn out team, still depending on Puopolo.

Sometimes when everything goes your way, and you have an easy draw, you can pluck a top 4 finish. Look at West Coast in 2011 under Worsfold.

 

[MightyHawks]

Ok, so now you're onto mental gymnastics regarding what constitutes the label "uncompetitive". Yeah let's just forget about the 5-win year in 2005 where you got a priority pick. It's beside the point anyway, which you continue to miss.


So? There were 16 teams in the competition, they can't all succeed.
Multiple pick 1s does not guarantee future success. A wide array of excellent picks across multiple years? You'd think a Hawthorn supporter would understand, but by all means, keep believing in Crazy Clarko's new moneyball fantasy.

I'd have thought Carlton, Melbourne, Gold Coast and GWS have all had enough high draft picks over the years to guarantee at least one flag each - why haven't they?

 

[Pessimistic]

Ok, so now you're onto mental gymnastics regarding what constitutes the label "uncompetitive". Yeah let's just forget about the 5-win year in 2005 where you got a priority pick. It's beside the point anyway, which you continue to miss.


So? There were 16 teams in the competition, they can't all succeed.
Multiple pick 1s does not guarantee future success. A wide array of excellent picks across multiple years? You'd think a Hawthorn supporter would understand, but by all means, keep believing in Crazy Clarko's new moneyball fantasy.

‘people like you were saying exactly the same thing in 2009-10 about hawthorn. Yep I prefer my fantasy to yours

I used the sub 80% measure and bottoming out phenomena, because before recruiting via the draft, it rarely happened - was a badge of shame.

Carlton rarely had one in their history, yet have had more below than above in recent years.

if a team has two or more successive sub 80% years, they won’t win a flag for at least seven, if they do at all.
And btw in 2005 Clarko first win was against Brisbane. Who’d played 4 grand finals straight. There were signs

 

[Tig017]

Hawthorn would never get the access to talent Gold Coast have. Why is anyone Even arguing this in a strategy discussion?

You are clearly incapable of following a discussion.

 

[MightyHawks]

Collingwood backed their quality up, and today remain one of the best teams in the AFL.
Hawthorn did not, and based on last Friday, look an old, slow, worn out team, still depending on Puopolo.

Sometimes when everything goes your way, and you have an easy draw, you can pluck a top 4 finish. Look at West Coast in 2011 under Worsfold.

So the Bulldogs weren't capable of winning in 2016 then - got it!!