Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[MightyHawks]

Because they haven't been able to retain players or have chosen the wrong FA targets. Both just as important and is the balancing act that teams need to master.

If Cats got a Big Boy over Stanley or being able to keep a Mumford I'm sure we would have a couple of extra flags under our belt.

Everything has to go right to win flags these days.

I always thought Hawks had a soft underbelly during the 3peat but you had a good injury run except one year but they were all back by finals.

Once the absolute champs left you were just left with role players who starred in a star team but couldn't take the next step. Shiels, Smith, Gunston, Puopolo, Stratton etc. all serviceable but need a great team around them to be great.
If a Shiels stepped up to be elite it would have been a better story but to had to spend too much capital getting Mitchell and JOM so you had to luck on getting a sun in the 70s.

That lack of bottom end talent is showing. Nothing elite just serviceable players you would expect from the draft range.

This entire thread seems to be based around whether Hawthorn can win the flag with it's current strategy - with the answer needing a premiership to prove whether the strategy was ok or not.

Even though things have to go right and you could be the best team in the competition and still not win the premiership in any given year as you need things to go right.

There's always critical moments in a season. Would Geelong have won the 2011 Grand Final if J Pod doesn't get injured? Maybe yes, maybe no.
Does Geelong win the 2009 Grand Final if it doesn't rain? Probably not, but then nothing ever seems to go right for the Saints

The thread also ignores the possibility that with all the equalisation measures in place that after 2016 it's possible there's nothing Hawthorn could have done to win a premiership in 2017-2019.

And the thread also ignores that in 2018 by finishing in the top 4 we may have been able to win the flag if everything had gone right in September - were the Tigers actually sick before the Prelim? What if we'd actually beaten the Tigers in the Qualifying Final - maybe they are sick/injured for the Qualifying Final - who cares how it happens. Get a week off and if we'd had a fully fit and available list then beating Collingwood and West Coast would have been possible (Our record against those sides in the last 5 years is pretty good after all). Not to say it's likely we were going to win it - list management can only create possibilities.

 

[ChappyUK]

This entire thread seems to be based around whether Hawthorn can win the flag with it's current strategy - with the answer needing a premiership to prove whether the strategy was ok or not.

Even though things have to go right and you could be the best team in the competition and still not win the premiership in any given year as you need things to go right.
There's always critical moments in a season. Would Geelong have won the 2011 Grand Final if J Pod doesn't get injured? Maybe yes, maybe no.
Does Geelong win the 2009 Grand Final if it doesn't rain? Probably not, but then nothing ever seems to go right for the Saints

The thread also ignores the possibility that with all the equalisation measures in place that after 2016 it's possible there's nothing Hawthorn could have done to win a premiership in 2017-2019.

And the thread also ignores that in 2018 by finishing in the top 4 we may have been able to win the flag if everything had gone right in September - were the Tigers actually sick before the Prelim? What if we'd actually beaten the Tigers in the Qualifying Final - maybe they are sick/injured for the Qualifying Final - who cares how it happens. Get a week off and if we'd had a fully fit and available list then beating Collingwood and West Coast would have been possible (Our record against those sides in the last 5 years is pretty good after all). Not to say it's likely we were going to win it - list management can only create possibilities.

Thread is about list structures. If you don't make finals the above means nothing

 

[Pessimistic]

I don't think it is much of a surprise to anyone that Patton moves like Richard Lounder.

Good to see you have come to the realization that a rebuild is imminent, shame is you have wasted the last few years trying to stay relevant, and it has made the job of rebuilding the side harder and bigger

I am specifically refuting what is known as a 'hard rebuild' too many clubs are now in a bad place through taking up fools gold. They 'waste' a lot more years than the 'be competitive' approach. Its a ten year process, and can fail spectacularly

It seems as though only recruiting draftees for three-five years, then topping up with matures for three years is somehow " the gospel" e.g. saints.

so how is that better than doing both simultaneously? the first approach actually cuts out 50% of recruiting possibilities

 

[Pessimistic]

Because they haven't been able to retain players or have chosen the wrong FA targets. Both just as important and is the balancing act that teams need to master.

If Cats got a Big Boy over Stanley or being able to keep a Mumford I'm sure we would have a couple of extra flags under our belt.

Everything has to go right to win flags these days.

I always thought Hawks had a soft underbelly during the 3peat but you had a good injury run except one year but they were all back by finals.

Once the absolute champs left you were just left with role players who starred in a star team but couldn't take the next step. Shiels, Smith, Gunston, Puopolo, Stratton etc. all serviceable but need a great team around them to be great.
If a Shiels stepped up to be elite it would have been a better story but to had to spend too much capital getting Mitchell and JOM so you had to luck on getting a sun in the 70s.

That lack of bottom end talent is showing. Nothing elite just serviceable players you would expect from the draft range.

Mate I guarantee in 2010-12 you would have been similarly dismissive of those players as you are of current hawks now. And we went OK after Franklin left.

every Hawthorn player has been selectively described as ' OK with champions around them" no more so than Rioli who seems to rile up cats posters by just existing

You'll forgive us for not rating opinions such as these

 

[Joao]

I have not given up totally on the Hawks this year but regardless of what happens from here I think the thing their last 4 years have taught me is just how good those 2008-2015 players they had were. Ridiculous amount of talent in that period.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Geez, the media have well and truly dropped off the Hawks after this weekend, questioning their kids under 24, and blowing draft picks on top up players when they no longer have the class of yesteryears players around them.

Huge game against Richmond this week.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Geez, the media have well and truly dropped off the Hawks after this weekend, questioning their kids under 24, and blowing draft picks on top up players when they no longer have the class of yesteryears players around them.

Huge game against Richmond this week.

Seeing some of the young kids in other teams dominate this weekend does make me wonder whether we gave up too much for Wingard.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Seeing some of the young kids in other teams dominate this weekend does make me wonder whether we gave up too much for Wingard.

If you were a team like the Pies, in the flag window, you would have done that deal for Wingard, unfortunately I feel like Clarko and the HFC brains trust, probably misjudged where The Hawks were in the flag window, and they are coming from a long way back.

Still you have 4 flags to enjoy in the last 12 years, and equalization eventually catches up to all great teams.

 

[MightyHawks]

Thread is about list structures. If you don't make finals the above means nothing

Thread is about list structures and strategy but the general tone of the thread is if you don't win a premiership then the list structures and strategy were wrong.

And if you do win a premiership then the list structures and strategy were right

 

[Pessimistic]

Geez, the media have well and truly dropped off the Hawks after this weekend, questioning their kids under 24, and blowing draft picks on top up players when they no longer have the class of yesteryears players around them.

Huge game against Richmond this week.

surprised though? not really. Port North and Essendon are notorious early bolters. maybe this year is different

 

[Baird]

no

 

[The Final Word]

On the face of it, it's surprising that they held on to a number of their guys that you would have said a cooked. But I just don't think they rated last season's draft. Only picked 3 players, traded in 4 picks from the 2020 draft (sent away 2 picks).

Could they have traded in more players? Possibly, but who were the younger mids that you'd be targeting? Ah Chee, Aish, Langdon? Who else was seriously available. Easy to say delist, but you have to bring blokes in.

Personally, I'm pretty shocked to see Puopolo on a list, I can't believe you couldn't find a replacement for the 32 year old version of him. But of the other oldies (Burgoyne, Frawley, Stratton, etc) I think you can individually make a case for their presence on the list, just not all on the same team. Surely all four of them are gone by the end of the season

 

[hawkman]

Also we lately seem to rattle home towards the end of the year
2017: Started 1-5 then went 9-1-6 from there
2018: Started 5-5 then went 10-2
2019: Started 5-9 then went 6-2

Not sure of the reason if it takes awhile to get adjusted to a game plan or we are taking advantage of teams tiring towards the end.

As long as we don't knock ourselves out early this season, I still think we will string together wins at the backend of the season to be competitive

 

[Joao]

Also we lately seem to rattle home towards the end of the year
2017: Started 1-5 then went 9-1-6 from there
2018: Started 5-5 then went 10-2
2019: Started 5-9 then went 6-2

Not sure of the reason if it takes awhile to get adjusted to a game plan or we are taking advantage of teams tiring towards the end.

As long as we don't knock ourselves out early this season, I still think we will string together wins at the backend of the season to be competitive

True enough, but with the list profile you want more than competitive, you want home prelims.

 

[Rod Stroker]

surprised though? not really. Port North and Essendon are notorious early bolters. maybe this year is different

LOL!

Last year we lost our first 3 games.
In 2018 we lost 2 of our first 3.
In 2017 we lost our first 5 games.

Only once in 10 years under Scott did we win our first 2 games, which was 2016.

Yeah, we're "notorious early bolters"

 

[TylerDurden]

On the face of it, it's surprising that they held on to a number of their guys that you would have said a cooked. But I just don't think they rated last season's draft. Only picked 3 players, traded in 4 picks from the 2020 draft (sent away 2 picks).

Could they have traded in more players? Possibly, but who were the younger mids that you'd be targeting? Ah Chee, Aish, Langdon? Who else was seriously available. Easy to say delist, but you have to bring blokes in.

Personally, I'm pretty shocked to see Puopolo on a list, I can't believe you couldn't find a replacement for the 32 year old version of him. But of the other oldies (Burgoyne, Frawley, Stratton, etc) I think you can individually make a case for their presence on the list, just not all on the same team. Surely all four of them are gone by the end of the season

Agree. Got Minchington and may play that role soon. Poppy is cooked. No argument there.

Frawley was our best on Fri night. Has another year in him injury permitting.

Stratton was baked last year. Baffling decision.

 

[JayJ20]

surprised though? not really. Port North and Essendon are notorious early bolters. maybe this year is different

Early season shitness is exactly the biggest issue we always have. It defines us under Woosha.

I actually don't say we're bolting by any means either. Just banking wins.

 

[Gavin Excell]

LOL!

Last year we lost our first 3 games.
In 2018 we lost 2 of our first 3.
In 2017 we lost our first 5 games.

Only once in 10 years under Scott did we win our first 2 games, which was 2016.

Yeah, we're "notorious early bolters"

Notorious

 

[THE_GUN]

Personally, I'm pretty shocked to see Puopolo on a list, I can't believe you couldn't find a replacement for the 32 year old version of him. But of the other oldies (Burgoyne, Frawley, Stratton, etc) I think you can individually make a case for their presence on the list, just not all on the same team. Surely all four of them are gone by the end of the season

Dan Butler would have been a good get for the Hawks and was available until late ,Basically a free hit on cheap coin

 

[TylerDurden]

Dan Butler would have been a good get for the Hawks and was available until late ,Basically a free hit on cheap coin

No doubt.

 

[fnerd]

I like both coaches. But the clarko rhetoric is OTT.

I remember Hafey doing his 4 in 8. Never got a lot of attention for being a genius, they would say it was discipline and hard work, ergo, if he stops those enforcing values he won't keep succeeding. He never won another flag despite coming close a few more times.

Contrast Clarko, because success is due to his genius which some think is a non-diminishing eternal quality (entropy anyone?), then it is a matter of time, or an inevitability, that further success will come. This minimalises Clarko's success, there are many other abilities and skills he applied apart from genius.

Listening to Lyon Healy Brown et al go on abt Clarko's inevitability to wim another flag is both ignorant of life and history and sycophantic.

Well said.

Clearly, by accolades the best coach in it (which also doesn’t mean he’s the best at coaching right atm)but some of the wank that gets Thrown his way (eg Lloyd/Lyon/brown)you d be excused for thinking he is the AFL oracle.

The Hafey comparison is very apt .
Also presided over very talented teams but the fact remains, always has always will -access/availability of champion players will ultimately be the biggest determine factor in a coach’s success.

And now clarko no longer has said players he like his side are merely middle of the road.

personally don’t think he ll win another one(not with hawthorn anyway) in which case he ll simply sit alongside the likes of sheedy and hafey- with 4 flags.
Still an unbelievable effort and obviously best coach of the last 15 years but interestingly enough compare how sheedys looked upon now-as some wacky afl/vfl relic, not “genius” coach or innovator as indeed could easily claimed to be back in his coaching heyday.
Think you ll find clarko will simply end up the same

 

[TylerDurden]

Well said.

Clearly, by accolades the best coach in it (which also doesn’t mean he’s the best at coaching right atm)but some of the wank that gets Thrown his way (eg Lloyd/Lyon/brown)you d be excused for thinking he is the AFL oracle.

The Hafey comparison is very apt .
Also presided over very talented teams but the fact remains, always has always will -access/availability of champion players will ultimately be the biggest determine factor in a coach’s success.

And now clarko no longer has said players he like his side are merely middle of the road.

personally don’t think he ll win another one(not with hawthorn anyway) in which case he ll simply sit alongside the likes of sheedy and hafey- with 4 flags.
Still an unbelievable effort and obviously best coach of the last 15 years but interestingly enough compare how sheedys looked upon now-as some wacky afl/vfl relic, not “genius” coach or innovator as indeed could easily claimed to be back in his coaching heyday.
Think you ll find clarko will simply end up the same

All jokes aside, you can't compare the Hafey/ Sheedy eras to the current one. Throw in compromised drafts and losing Bud for essentially nothing, and his feats have been epic.

No point diluting it.

 

[The Final Word]

All jokes aside, you can't compare the Hafey/ Sheedy eras to the current one. Throw in compromised drafts and losing Bud for essentially nothing, and his feats have been epic.

No point diluting it.

Not sure about the long term impact of losing Buddy, in all honestly. Cats lost Ablett and could then pay others. Hawks lost buddy and the same thing happened. Appreciate you can replace the game's best mid easier than the game's best forward, but if you sign Buddy on an huge deal, maybe you don't get Tom Mitchell.

I really doubt you'll hear about a rebuild from Clarkson, fact is they have a few extra picks already this year and have a number of players retiring. Not sure what they're paying to the guys they've added over the last few years Mitchell, Scully, Patton, Wingard, but if they have salary cap room there's something to work with. Personally if they're aggressive they'd ship their one contracted older guy who still has value in Gunston. Don't think you'll win anything with Jack and someone like a Melbourne could really use him IMO.

 

[La Dispute]

Ah pick 12 so Burgoyne also fails as he hadn't peaked either - he's got better since we got him


It's a really tough criteria though, and drafting a player in the top ten only gives you a low chance at a star.

Lets look at the 2011 AFL draft top 10 (Ignore pick 11 as it was Toby Greene so even if he is a star which is highly unlikely as he isn't a top 10 pick - it's irrelevant to the argument)
View attachment 892308
Sorry I accidentally posted the top 15 - but my computer skills are pretty average and can't delete it, so just ignore picks 11-15 and also ignore that they seem just as good as the top 10.

Arguably there's 0-2 star players in the top 10 (depending on your definition of a star).
I'll put it out there that Stephen Coniglio & Chad Wingard are the only two players in the top 10 you could suggest might be (or have been) stars

Which means that there were only 2 possible star top 10 pick players in that draft - so the odds of getting one of them was pretty low if you had a a top 10 pick.

Now Coniglio has cost the Giants & the AFL a lot of cash/salary cap/ ambassador $$$ to retain him
And Port lost Chad for some things that aren't top 10 picks (Burton wasn't a top 10 pick originally, and picks 15 & 35 aren't top 10 picks either)

I feel that Hawthorns strategy on the 2011 draft was pretty solid. Trade away our first pick which was only pick 24 for Jack Gunston. Try and recruit top 10 ruck (Longer) a couple of years later when we desperately needed a ruck (but go with McEvoy instead as we didn't want to overpay). Then a few years later: target the best two of the top 10 (Congilio & Wingard) and also arguably the best non-top 10 player from that draft (Mitchell), and also the best from the mini-draft too (O'Meara).

And then how many of those players are complete busts? Like 2? Look at how many very solid players were taken - guys who are comfortably in the top 5 players at their clubs (Haynes, Ellis, Smith, Adams, Docherty*)

The idea isn't to hit one draft hard, it's to hit 3-4 hard. If you draft and develop well you should pick up a couple of stars plus add a solid supporting cast around them. Not even talking first rounders either. Look at the Bulldogs drafting from 2010-2015. They ended up with a number of stars and some game-breakers like Stringer and Clay Smith, but they also managed to nab some solid peripheral players like McLean, Daniel, Dunkley etc later on in the draft.

The problem with throwing picks and money at guys like JOM and Wingard is they aren't genuine stars. They're guys who play a few big matches a year, but are otherwise pseudo A-graders. So not only are you using a bunch of cap space, you could have had a whole bunch of talented young players instead. I've said it a few times but St Kilda literally drafted their half-back line from the picks acquired from the JOM trade. You can't downplay the opportunity cost of ignoring the need to hit the draft when you really need to inject some talent into the squad.

*Was the best Half-back flanker in the league before injury. I'd characterise that as being a star.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Wouldn’t surprise me to see the Hawks beat the Tigers this week to paper over a few cracks. The West Coast win last year has a similar smell about it.