Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Ron The Bear]

History says older teams tend to win flags. Wasn't there some stat trotted out during Thursday nights game about the number of 29 year olds we fielded last year matching the record previously set by Geelong in 2011. What happened that year? Wasn't 2015 one of the oldest if not oldest flag winning teams ever? Players are becoming more and more like fine wine. Or given this thread, perhaps fine whine is more appropriate.

Not after missing finals they don't.

Sure, records are made to be broken but Hawthorn is really pushing the envelope. I called it when North was flying in 2016 and I'm calling it here. Could be wrong, Hawthorn is a stronger club than North. The abbreviated season will help you. Possibly shorter games, too.

 

[Blue1980]

I’m doing a u-turn on this, what’s the point of Hawthorn going a rebuild when they don’t have to?

If they can still bring in good experienced players and they want to come, do it.

Draft picks are just a number anyway, so if you can bring guys in who you know are proven at AFL level that’s better than a draft pick who theoretically could either be the next Mitch Thorp.

I say this as a supporter of a club who have hit the draft big time and in barely any better shape then we were 5 years ago.

 

[hk89]

Not after missing finals they don't.

Lots of old teams win flags, just like teams that didn't make finals the year before win flags. The latter is probably not common, but it does happen. Where did Richmond finish in 2016? Did Hawthorn miss finals in 2019 because their older players kept breaking down, or did they miss finals because their best player who was mid 20s broke his leg in the pre-season, and their biggest name recruit - also in mid 20s had pre-season and early season injuries. Wingard and Mitchell hit the ground running in round 1 last year, and I reckon we'd have made finals fairly comfortably. Given the form we were in against the prelim teams in the lead up to finals, who knows what could have happened if we did. Probably Richmond and dogs the teams I'd least like to have met, the rest I reckon we'd have been pretty confident against.

Sure, records are made to be broken but Hawthorn is really pushing the envelope. I called it when North was flying in 2016 and I'm calling it here.

North had little to do with age. It is a long time since North had a list that could win a prelim. They didn't fail because they got too old, even if that didn't help.

 

[hawkman]

Everyone knew North were going to drop away in 2016, they played all the easy teams up front

 

[Ron The Bear]

Where did Richmond finish in 2016?
...
North had little to do with age. It is a long time since North had a list that could win a prelim. They didn't fail because they got too old, even if that didn't help.

Richmond had a relatively young team in 2016, contrary to calls by some in the media for them to rebuild. The list was in balance and age was the least of our problems.

North's veterans were playing with zest before they began to break down. History says there is a consistency level that must be met in order for an old team to succeed, and Hawthorn has fallen short of the mark.

I really don't want to go on debating it, my opinion is what it is and it's not very important. Take your win and be happy for a week.

 

[hk89]

Richmond had a relatively young team in 2016, contrary to calls by some in the media for them to rebuild.

Their age is neither here nor there. If old teams can win flags, and teams can win from outside the 8, what is the logic behind thinking Hawthorn can't win because they were old and missed finals last year. If we missed because a bunch of older players had their bodies fall apart, then fare enough, but that didn't look the case to me.

Hawthorn has had no clear predictable trajectory the last 4 finals series.
Top 4
Missed finals
Top 4
Missed finals

Looks like Top 4 on the cards again.

North's veterans were playing with zest before they began to break down. History says there is a consistency level that must be met for an old team to succeed, and Hawthorn falls short of the mark.

Yes, we've been inconsistent, partly because we've had a fair change of personal over the last few seasons (in some really key roles), and Clarko plays a highly structured game plan that requires his team to mesh well to implement it. Nobody is breaking down in large numbers yet, and we've not been overly reliant on the older players that have. Looked great without Poppy in the side last night. Not a massive number of old folks in our B&F either. Burgoyne is the closest thing to an important player we have who has missed games recently due to what you could consider "old man" injuries, and while he's had very important moments for the club, he's not a cornerstone player, and more a cameo performer. Mitchell is a cornerstone player, and we didn't have him all last year, and it hurt our finals chances much more than our aging list. The thing Hawthorn needs most is for the imports of the last few seasons to get some time on field together in order to gel as a unit. We're a considerably stronger side on paper than the one that made top 4 two years ago.

We've also tended to be doing the opposite of what North did in the years we've missed finals. We've started out slow and come home strong. This also runs against your "too old" theory, where players break down as the season goes on, and is more consistent with us having trouble blooding new imports into the game plan, but coming good once they've gotten familiarity with the system and learnt how to slot in with their new teammates. I imagine Patton and Frost will take a while, although Frost already looks good. 2/3 for the start of the year given who and where we've played is our best start for a while. If we can continue to build on that, we'll probably continue the even year/odd year finals/miss finals pattern.

 

[Beerfish]

No.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Their age is neither here nor there. If old teams can win flags, and teams can win from outside the 8, what is the logic behind thinking Hawthorn can't win because they were old and missed finals last year. If we missed because a bunch of older players had their bodies fall apart, then fare enough, but that didn't look the case to me.

Ah FFS. Teams generally build up in age and performance, reach a peak, then come down the other side. It's just a question of timing as to when they move on to the next mountain.

One swallow does not a summer make. Hawthorn is coming down.

 

[WWSD]

Ah FFS. Teams generally build up in age and performance, reach a peak, then come down the other side. It's just a question of timing as to when to move on to the next mountain.

One swallow does not a summer make. Hawthorn is coming down.

If Hawthorn were to go through another rebuild either next year or the year after, I can guarantee you they will win another Premiership before Essendon, Carlton Melbourne and St Kilda.

 

[Beerfish]

If Hawthorn were to go through another rebuild either next year or the year after, I can guarantee you they will win another Premiership before Essendon, Carlton Melbourne and St Kilda.

Oh dear.. what an embarrassing post.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

If Hawthorn were to go through another rebuild either next year or the year after, I can guarantee you they will win another Premiership before Essendon, Carlton Melbourne and St Kilda.

also....

If Hawthorn do NOT go through another rebuild either next year or the year after, I can guarantee you they will still win another Premiership before Essendon, Carlton Melbourne and St Kilda.

 

[WWSD]

Oh dear.. what an embarrassing post.

September 2004

 

[Beerfish]

The hubris. The hubris.

 

[Ron The Bear]

If Hawthorn were to go through another rebuild either next year or the year after, I can guarantee you they will win another Premiership before Essendon, Carlton Melbourne and St Kilda.

Maybe. Nobody can say how a rebuild is going to go. But Clarkson himself has the runs on the board, having initially started with and maintained a young team (24.05 or below, first five seasons). That they succeeded before they were "meant" to points to uncommon playing, coaching and management talent.

Clarko clearly doesn't want to go through another full rebuild. At 52 he is much closer to the end of his coaching journey than the beginning.

 

[hk89]

Ah FFS. Teams generally build up in age and performance, reach a peak, then come down the other side. It's just a question of timing as to when they move on to the next mountain.

One swallow does not a summer make. Hawthorn is coming down.

So if we make finals this year, you'll admit you were wrong, and we were in fact going up?

 

[Ron The Bear]

So if we make finals this year, you'll admit you were wrong, and we were in fact going up?

I don't think just reaching the finals would be vindication, no. It really has to be top four with such a senior team given the lack of development taking place at the bottom end relative to most other clubs. They need to be a genuine contender.

 

[hk89]

Clarko clearly doesn't want to go through another full rebuild. At 52 he is much closer to the end of his coaching journey than the beginning.

Closer perhaps, but he could have another 10 years. Malthouse, Yabbie, Kennedy, Sheedy all went to around 59-61. Clarko looks after himself, and could easily beat those guys for longevity by a number of years, placing him only a little past the half way mark as a senior coach right now. I wonder who the oldest AFL/VFL coach was? Nobody I looked up had got beyond 61, but didn't look very far afield.

 

[hk89]

I don't think just reaching the finals would be vindication, no.

I didn't ask for vindication, I asked if you'd back your "Hawthorn are on the way down" statement and admit you were wrong if we actually go up. I guess the answer was no, you'll back pedal a little if we make finals and qualify your statement with "Hawthorn are on the way down...well not yet, but soon". Logically we can't make finals and be on the way down unless they make it a top 10 this year.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Closer perhaps, but he could have another 10 years. Malthouse, Yabbie, Kennedy, Sheedy all went to around 59-61. Clarko looks after himself, and could easily beat those guys for longevity by a number of years, placing him only a little past the half way mark as a senior coach right now. I wonder who the oldest AFL/VFL coach was? Nobody I looked up had got beyond 61, but didn't look very far afield.

Coaching's a relatively young man's game.

Checker Hughes, last game @ 71, last flag @ 54 (OK this is an outlier as his last game was a one-off)
Jock McHale, last game 66, last flag 53
Sheedy 65/52
Malthouse 61/57 (the record-breaker)
Kennedy 60/47
Pagan 59/52
Barassi 59/41
Worrall 59/51
Jeans 58/56
Parkin 57/53
Norm Smith 57/49
Hafey 57/43
Matthews 56/51
...
Clarkson 52/47

 

[Ron The Bear]

I didn't ask for vindication, I asked if you'd back your "Hawthorn are on the way down" statement and admit you were wrong if we actually go up. I guess the answer was no, you'll back pedal a little if we make finals and qualify your statement with "Hawthorn are on the way down...well not yet, but soon". Logically we can't make finals and be on the way down unless they make it a top 10 this year.

Not making top four would be a fail in my book.

 

[Furn2]

Not after missing finals they don't.

Sure, records are made to be broken but Hawthorn is really pushing the envelope. I called it when North was flying in 2016 and I'm calling it here. Could be wrong, Hawthorn is a stronger club than North. The abbreviated season will help you. Possibly shorter games, too.

but when they finish on the top half of the league they do.

 

[WWSD]

Not making top four would be a fail in my book.

I don’t think it really makes any difference if Hawthorn finished 1st, 5th or 8th. I’d say pass mark in 2020 would be to win a final with this current list.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I don’t think it really makes any difference if Hawthorn finished 1st, 5th or 8th. I’d say pass mark in 2020 would be to win a final with this current list.

And then what? Top up some more to replace Burgoyne & Puopolo?

Bowing out early in finals is pointless at Hawthorn's stage of development. Fielding old teams without succeeding just makes it more difficult for the next coach.

You've got to give yourself a realistic chance of winning it to make the policy worthwhile. You gotta be a contender. And finishing outside top four makes that very difficult indeed.

 

[hawkman]

Coaching's a relatively young man's game.

Checker Hughes, last game @ 71, last flag @ 54 (OK this is an outlier as his last game was a one-off)
Jock McHale, last game 66, last flag 53
Sheedy 65/52
Malthouse 61/57 (the record-breaker)
Kennedy 60/47
Pagan 59/52
Barassi 59/41
Worrall 59/51
Jeans 58/56
Parkin 57/53
Norm Smith 57/49
Hafey 57/43
Matthews 56/51
...
Clarkson 52/47

Surprised about Jeans, he always looked older

 

[hk89]

Not making top four would be a fail in my book.

Ok, so we're finished, and on the way down according to you. However your yardstick for a successful season for us is top 4? Anything else and we are on the way down, even though we finished 9th last year, so 8th or better would actually have us being on the way up? I'm not really sure I've completely grasped your argument here...

For mine, a yardstick of "top 4 or it's a fail" is the type of yardstick I'd use for a team that is in with a chance of a flag, or at the very least a prelim appearance. Perhaps I'm not the only one who is confused. Sounds like you expect big things of us this season.