Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Scotland]

The players that Hawthorn have brought in recently Mitchell (27), Wingard (27), O’Meara (26) etc are all in their prime. Sure hitting the draft would be the preferred outcome, but there’s no guarantee that it leads to success.

That strategy still hasn’t worked for Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon etc.

Mitchell came in at 23, O'Meara at 22. Still long term players regardless of the price paid. Wingard came in at 25 at the expense of a 21 year old Burton who had played 43 games in two years. You could argue that 2018 was a good year but critics would say it was a dead cat bounce and straight sets for the second time in 3 years was representative of the list. Patton and Frost came in at 27, Scully at 28, Henderson (good pick up) at 29.

The whole thread has been about the bolded and whether or not people agree that is the case.

 

[Bombfire]

Good player, but far too inconsistent. Not what Hawthorn need to take them forward. Burton and a draft pick would've been much better. High price paid for an inconsistent flanker who isn't much of a leader.


Not so much what they paid, but the fact they're taking up spots in the team. Scully is cooked and Hawthorn should've been blooding a younger guy in his place instead. Just exemplifies Hawthorn's mentality of trying to prop up with mature age role players instead of going for youth.

Hawks should be looking at Brayden Ham as an example of the folly in picking up someone like sculls.

 

[HeHateMe]

Not so much what they paid, but the fact they're taking up spots in the team. Scully is cooked and Hawthorn should've been blooding a younger guy in his place instead. Patton's body continues to let him down and I doubt he'll be around for much longer, unfortunately. Mitch Lewis is one of Hawthorn's most promising players but was left on the sidelines for the first month.

Okay I'm with you on this one.

I stand by my views that back in 2016 going after a new young core was the a good move. I also don't mind the Wingard trade because he address a real weakness in the list, even though more work still needs to be done there.

What is a bit iffy is bringing in a supporting class to help the core thats probably not good enough yet. We still need more talent and you know what your going to get from the supporting class and it isn't a superstar to partner with Mitchell and co a subjective draft pick could be.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Wingard to me is a last piece of the premiership puzzle a player who looks much better in a good team and i don’t think we are anywhere near a premiership with this list.

Exactly. Wingard is a "cherry on top" player for a team who are in the window. Not the sort of player you want to pay a big price for as you're about to enter a reset period. Hawthorn needed someone who could help guide and lead the younger players that will be coming through in the next few years, and I don't think Chad is that type of player/person.

 

[donaldknuth]

The players that Hawthorn have brought in recently Mitchell (27), Wingard (27), O’Meara (26) etc are all in their prime. Sure hitting the draft would be the preferred outcome, but there’s no guarantee that it leads to success.

That strategy still hasn’t worked for Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon etc.

Who said hitting the draft guarantees success?

Correction: hitting the draft and LANDING HITS guarantees success.

On that subject, trading in 24-27 year old players into an old, declining team is not guaranteed success. This is similar to the path Brisbane chose to follow in 2009 under Michael Voss, who thought Brisbane were close to contending after reaching the semi-final. How did they go for the next 7 years again?

The proven formula for sustained success/dynasty making is drafting an core of quality youth, developing them, then trading in older gun players later to address team weaknesses.

Geelong 1999-2002: Joel Corey, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright, Cameron Ling, James Kelly, Gary Ablett, Andrew Mackie, Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman among others. Not many trades, but Brad Ottens was an important acquisition.

Hawthorn drafted a core consisting of Hodge, S.Mitchell, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Birchall and Rioli across 5-6 years, then filled the gaps with Burgoyne, Gibson, Lake, Gunston, McEvoy, Frawley. It's a combination of two recruitment methods.

Imagine if in 2004, instead of going to the draft and picking up Roughead, Franklin and Lewis, they conformed to Clarko's current recruiting philosophy and put themselves in the market for all the guys who were traded for first rounders that year. Instead of Roughy, Buddy and Lewis, you could've traded those picks for guys like Josh Carr, Brent Moloney, Scott Thompson, Darren Jolly. Recipe for success?

 

[Ambrosia]

The bit that everyone misses is if we hit the draft over the next 4 years and get lucky those players (Mitchell, Wingard, O'Meara) will still be around to have a tilt for the next flag.

Using hindsight even if we hit the draft 4 years ago and got lucky our core of then (Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead) would not have been around to partner with that group for tilt at a flag and also our list was lacking any quality 25+ year olds to grow alongside them. Imagine walking into a club and your senior mid is Will Langford.

Yeah I like the moves of bringing in Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard. I just think the coaching staff/list management team were sucked in by a strong finish to end the 2019 season thinking they could challenge for the flag in 2020.

- Resigning Puopolo, Minchington, Burgoyne

- Trading Pittonet who looks a capable ruckman

- Giving list spots to Hartley and Brooksby

Drafting is enough of a crapshoot still that it remains a numbers game so list spots are valuable. 2020 could have been a year for the Hawks to start their rebuild and give themselves the best chance of building another side capable of challenging while Bruest, Wingard, Gunston, Mitchell and O'Meara are playing good footy.

 

[HeHateMe]

As far as I'm concerned Hawks have leap frogged a few teams by ignoring the elite end of the draft through the 16-20 period where we could have bottomed out.

The conversation has moved away from that and turned more towards does the current list have enough talent to challenge, recruits that have been acquired for little price are being questioned (Patton, Scully) for the opportunity cost at the draft. Nothing else.

I'm not going to sit here and argue against that because alot of those options here and there I agree with but we sort of should have a new thread as it's not really relevant to this one anymore.

 

[MinerBoy]

I swear people criticising the Wingard pick up don’t watch or see random 5 minute clips.

He’s our best player.

Played forward last night with Breust and Burgoyne both out and the ball barely went there. When it did was one of those nights for the whole team and it didn’t work for him.

When he’s had the balance of on ball/forward like most of the season he’s been fantastic.... as he was the back half of last year.

If he continues his season as is he’s a real shot for another AA

Lay the boots in all you want but missing the mark by a mile with Wingard


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[HeHateMe]

Although this thread moving off the main board might feel like big footy is losing a child.

 

[chickentendies]

Exactly. Wingard is a "cherry on top" player for a team who are in the window. Not the sort of player you want to pay a big price for as you're about to enter a reset period. Hawthorn needed someone who could help guide and lead the younger players that will be coming through in the next few years, and I don't think Chad is that type of player/person.

Key issue is they forced out a good player who wanted to be there in Burton. Absolutely awful move for your club culture.

 

[Back One Out]

Where are you getting Sam Mitchell wasn’t liked by his teammates? It’s a myth.

RUNVS has been like Pavlov's dog about that over the years. You just need to ring the bell and say "Sam Mitchell" and he starts salivating and posting about what a "shit bloke" Mitchell is and how none of his teammates liked him. He must've heard a whisper from someone 'in the know'.

It's funny how the same clowns post the same crap year after year.

(Guilty as charged when it comes to Selwood's free kick milking, but that's fact not fiction and it's an ongoing concern, not something I heard about years ago)

 

[blue harvest]

Imagine if in 2004, instead of going to the draft and picking up Roughead, Franklin and Lewis, they conformed to Clarko's current recruiting philosophy and put themselves in the market for all the guys who were traded for first rounders that year. Instead of Roughy, Buddy and Lewis, you could've traded those picks for guys like Josh Carr, Brent Moloney, Scott Thompson, Darren Jolly. Recipe for success?

2004 we had picks 2, 5 and 7 in a strong draft, I doubt Clarko's current philosophy would be handing all of those over.
Correct me I'm wrong but the highest we've recently given up is 2017 first round which turned out to be pick 7, for JOM.
We got lucky in 2004, imagine if we took Tambling, Williams and Meesen, would you be saying the same thing?
For several years after 2004 we got duds in the draft, Dowler, Thorp, Ellis all top 10 picks.
So many Harry Hindsights in here.

 

[Scotland]

I swear people criticising the Wingard pick up don’t watch or see random 5 minute clips.

He’s our best player.

Played forward last night with Breust and Burgoyne both out and the ball barely went there. When it did was one of those nights for the whole team and it didn’t work for him.

When he’s had the balance of on ball/forward like most of the season he’s been fantastic.... as he was the back half of last year.

If he continues his season as is he’s a real shot for another AA

Lay the boots in all you want but missing the mark by a mile with Wingard


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Except that the majority of people recognise he is a good player. The conjecture is whether he was a good pick up.

If you told me that my team could have him I'd say thank you very much and then he'd immediately get a spot in the side. But if you said we had to give up our first round pick and Oscar Allen and pay him $800k a year (guess) then I'd say hell no. And we are supposedly in a window.

I do think that people forget/ignore that Wingard came in at the end of 2018 (i.e. after the Hawks finished 4th before finals) and a few people (me not included) thought that a final cherry on top player was a good addition at that time.

 

[bluespooner]

Key issue is they forced out a good player who wanted to be there in Burton. Absolutely awful move for your club culture.

Isn't that what Port did by shopping Wingard around without his knowledge.

 

[Back One Out]

Are hawks fans arguing that Burton is no good? The same Burton that was supposedly the next big thing 3 years ago and it was a crime Andy McGrath won the rising star over him?

Flogs who get into a lather over embarrassing Rising Star shitfights aren't relevant to discussions over a player's worth. That argument was only about form over the 2017 season. Neither McGrath nor Burton set the world on fire that year. It was weak year for Rising Star candidates and they both played pretty well. Burton didn't kick on. He was pretty awful in 2018. Soft. Plus he has an ongoing knee issue, so the club thought it prudent to trade him. I've never once thought, "Gee I wish we never traded Burton!"

 

[Scotland]

Isn't that what Port did by shopping Wingard around without his knowledge.

I thought it was more like Shiel leaving GWS. They said to explore his options and they would trade him a year out from free agency for the right price. His last two years at Port were OK but not great. At the time I thought it didn't make sense for either club but Port look good because their 2018 draftees have all showed a bit early.

 

[TylerDurden]

Wingard achieved his 2 AA caps at Port, not much help to Hawthorn then.
Betts has 3 AA caps.
Difference is the hawks paid a kings ransom for the Chad whilst Adelaide are paying Betts to play for Carlton ...

We paid what Chad is worth. Betts is about to retire. Get your hand off it.

 

[Red Bull]

We paid what Chad is worth. Betts is about to retire. Get your hand off it.

Hawthorn paid overs for the Chad.
They won’t be the first or the last to do so for a player ...

 

[donaldknuth]

2004 we had picks 2, 5 and 7 in a strong draft, I doubt Clarko's current philosophy would be handing all of those over.
Correct me I'm wrong but the highest we've recently given up is 2017 first round which turned out to be pick 7, for JOM.
We got lucky in 2004, imagine if we took Tambling, Williams and Meesen, would you be saying the same thing?
For several years after 2004 we got duds in the draft, Dowler, Thorp, Ellis all top 10 picks.
So many Harry Hindsights in here.

That just further highlights the key point. Yes there were some duds like Thorpe and Dowler, but guys like Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis and Roughead still formed the core of your A-grade youth at the time.

For the last 5 years from today, you've been trading players in, but no longer have that core of quality youth. Instead of Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Franklin, etc, it's Morrison, Worpel, Hardwick, Nash, Howe, Cousins, Mitchell Lewis. Sure there are some decent players there, but do I really need to tell you they're vastly inferior to the guys you drafted 15-20 years ago with top picks?

There's an appropriate time to trade in guys like Wingard, Frost, Scully, O'Meara, Patton and others: when you have a high quality team with improvement left in them, not when you're on the slope like Hawthorn were at the end of 2016.

By the time a kid like Will Day peaks, guys like Breust, Gunston, Burgoyne, Frawley, McEvoy and I.Smith will be retired. T.Mitchell, O'Meara, Frost, Shiels, Wingard, Impey will be in their 30s or nearing it. And what will you be left with in-between? Crabs like Howe, Moore, Cousins, Jones...

 

[Back One Out]

a final cherry on top player

I love the way ignoramuses always diss half forwards and small forwards as "flaky" or "cherry on top" players.

Wingard is a match winner. He can turn a game in 5 minutes with a handful of brilliant touches. I've watched him already win a few games for Hawthorn off his own boot. And that's just after one injury interrupted season and a COVID19 interrupted half season

Feel free to have your pointless circular arguments about whether or not he was a "good pick up". That's just the noise people make about any club who trades players in and doesn't win a flag. Will the Tim Kelly trade be a failure if West Coast don't get back to a Grand Final? Was it a mistake to re-sign Andrew Gaff on big dollars and not take the compo pick? Who knows? Who cares?

Clarko got Wingard to improve our list and I'm happy he did. 28 scintillating touches and 3 Brownlow votes in Round 23 last year when Hawthorn stuck it up West Coast when the Eagles were playing for a spot in the Top Four. That alone paid back the price of his trade. Up yours, West Coast W**kers. Another opportunity gone begging in the middle of your premiership window. It could've been a Richmond vs West Coast Grand Final. What a waste. A Chad-induced blown opportunity...

Well done, Chad. You stuck it right up 'em! That's what you did! You stuck it right up 'em!

 

[revo333]

Are hawks fans arguing that Burton is no good? The same Burton that was supposedly the next big thing 3 years ago and it was a crime Andy McGrath won the rising star over him?

They thought they had Tom Lynch and Coniglio in their bag.

They are a deluded bunch!

 

[Scotland]

They thought they had Tom Lynch and Coniglio in their bag.

They are a deluded bunch!

Don't forget Whitfield.

 

[blue harvest]

That just further highlights the key point. Yes there were some duds like Thorpe and Dowler, but guys like Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis and Roughead still formed the core of your A-grade youth at the time.

For the last 5 years from today, you've been trading players in, but no longer have that core of quality youth. Instead of Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Franklin, etc, it's Morrison, Worpel, Hardwick, Nash, Howe, Cousins, Mitchell Lewis. Sure there are some decent players there, but do I really need to tell you they're vastly inferior to the guys you drafted 15-20 years ago with top picks?

There's an appropriate time to trade in guys like Wingard, Frost, Scully, O'Meara, Patton and others: when you have a high quality team with improvement left in them, not when you're on the slope like Hawthorn were at the end of 2016.

By the time a kid like Will Day peaks, guys like Breust, Gunston, Burgoyne, Frawley, McEvoy and I.Smith will be retired. T.Mitchell, O'Meara, Frost, Shiels, Wingard, Impey will be in their 30s or nearing it. And what will you be left with in-between? Crabs like Howe, Moore, Cousins, Jones...

Mitchell was pick 36, we got lucky, Hodge pick we traded for and got lucky again with Freo taking Croad. Rough, Buddy and Lewis we got lucky again, we could have ended up with Tambling, Williams and Meesen that year. There's just too many Harry Hindsights in these threads. Scully, Patton, Frost we basically got for free. We haven't had many high draft picks the last 5 years, we couldn't get young guns like Rough, Lewis, Buddy, the most we traded out was pick 7 one year.

 

[WWSD]

They thought they had Tom Lynch and Coniglio in their bag.

They are a deluded bunch!

Bulldogs number one destination club!!!

Hey, how many indigenous players do the Bulldogs currently have?

 

[donaldknuth]

Mitchell was pick 36, we got lucky, Hodge pick we traded for and got lucky again with Freo taking Croad. Rough, Buddy and Lewis we got lucky again, we could have ended up with Tambling, Williams and Meesen that year. There's just too many Harry Hindsights in these threads. Scully, Patton, Frost we basically got for free. We haven't had many high draft picks the last 5 years, we couldn't get young guns like Rough, Lewis, Buddy, the most we traded out was pick 7 one year.

You continue to miss the point badly.