Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Gavin Excell]

Hanrahan will be delisted in two years
And Harry Morrison the same. Both got picked tonight whilst guys like Mitch Lewis and Jack scrimshaw missed out.

There wouldn’t be too many other sides with worse under 23 talent than us.

Blake Hardwick is going to be a solid defender.

James sicily is the only one with star quality.

James Worpel will be a very serviceable 200+ game player but he’s too one dimensional. He’s an inside mid with awful skills. Every team has that type of player.

Not singing from the hawthorn songsheet

Has Abasi cleared your posts?

 

[STPer18]

Young Parfitt was bullying their midfield a fair bit tonight. Need more depth in there.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Not singing from the hawthorn songsheet

Has Abasi cleared your posts?

It's so refreshing to see an honest Hawks supporter

 

[The Gong]

Switched on tonight and saw Scully, Patton and The Chad all on the park and thought for second they might be putting together a good side...but I was wrong

 

[Chrisonater]

Worth a shot topping up on the run but sooner Clarkson and co. realise it’s time for a proper rebuild the better

 

[La Dispute]

A lot of A-graders regressing to B-graders and B-graders regressing to C-graders.

Looking very bland overall.

 

[Milanista28]

Clarkson is starting to remind me of crazy Sheedy at the end, McEvoy as a KPD?? Really??

 

[Ron The Bear]

How old were they this week Ron The Bear

I make it 28.00 but that's a quick calc. Geelong 27.37.

Second- and sixth-oldest Round 2 teams of all time.

 

[BigVic]

Clarko is like Woosha in his last season at West Coast in 2013 and Sheedy in 2007

 

[Walshawk]

No. We can’t succeed. Ignoring the draft worked when we were the only club doing it. It meant draft picks were over rated and trade value under rated. No club will ever have a such a charmed run of ready made star recruits like Gibson, Lake, Burgoyne, Hale, McEvoy, Gunston etc again. Nearly all the players we targeted came to Hawthorn. But no more. We are becoming a halfway house for ‘coodabeen champions’ like Scully, Paton and Wingard.
Plus it was easy to cherry pick recruits to fill gaps when we already had a champion team and just one or two gaps. Now we have holes all over the field. Clarko is stubborn though and may not change what was a brilliant strategy. That could see us winning around half of our games for the next couple of seasons until we drop off the cliff when Breust, Gunston, Smith, McEvoy, Mitchell, Wingard, O’Meara, Burgoyne, etc, etc are all gone. And holding onto until our quality older players until they have no trade value before we trade them is strange. To think that we got nothing for Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis or Birchall is rediculous. We could have traded Ceglar or Smith when other clubs wanted them but they will have little value the next trade period.
Time to change tact.

 

[Scotland]

No. We can’t succeed. Ignoring the draft worked when we were the only club doing it. It meant draft picks were over rated and trade value under rated. No club will ever have a such a charmed run of ready made star recruits like Gibson, Lake, Burgoyne, Hale, McEvoy, Gunston etc again. Nearly all the players we targeted came to Hawthorn

I think this worked better when you had an already strong list that wasn't too old and your draft picks weren't great. Isaac Smith was a first round pick for a team that finished 7th/8th and went at number 19. When we picked Luke Shuey at 18 a couple of years earlier he was our second round pick. The 2011 first round went to 26 picks, 2012 to 23. If you are already a 17/18 win side with an average age of ~25ish why not cash in? Trading was also a bit different without future picks in play. Under the early 2010s rules I don't think trading for O'Meara and Mitchell in one year is achievable without trading out players.

I am slightly surprised Hawthorn haven't done better out of free agency. Frawley has been alright but any team would prefer to keep Franklin. Vickery was a bust and Henderson an excellent DFA. Did I miss anyone? But no Lynch, no Coniglio, no Rockliff/Motlop (if you'd bother), no Gaff or whoever else was up for it and re-signed. But teams have smartened up and tend to trade pre-agents knowing what their compo is likely to be the following year.

 

[RUNVS]

Hawthorn's problem is their age demographics. It may not be a problem this year but here are all the players 29 or over

Scully - 29.0
Shiels - 29.1
Ceglar - 29.3
Breust - 29.7
McEvoy - 30.11
Stratton - 31.3
Smith - 31.5
Frawley - 31.8
Henderson - 31.9
Puopolo - 32.6
Burgoyne - 37.7

That is a huge number of names, and players who are still vital to Hawthorn's best 22. Realistically Everyone from McEvoy down will likely not be in the team in 2022, meaning Hawthorn need to replace 7 best 22 players in the space of 2 years. It is quite a challenge.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Worth a shot topping up on the run but sooner Clarkson and co. realise it’s time for a proper rebuild the better

Clarko (when he retires in 3 or 4 years time) is most likely going to leave The Hawks list in a putrid state once Sam Mitchell takes over.

 

[RUNVS]

Clarko (when he retires in 3 or 4 years time) is most likely going to leave The Hawks list in a putrid state once Sam Mitchell takes over.

The players apparently didn't get along that well with Sam Mitchell when he was a player himself. I doubt he would make a good senior coach as part of being a good senior coach is connecting with your players.

 

[Borough Blood]

James Worpel will be a very serviceable 200+ game player but he’s too one dimensional. He’s an inside mid with awful skills. Every team has that type of player.

Interesting to hear this. I hear so much praise but I never see a lot on display. Granted he’s still young and he seems to be doing well for a pick well back in the draft but he seems to be the third mid/role player more than anything.

 

[La Dispute]

Worpel is going to be a very good footballer in the Lenny Hayes mould, but he and Tom Mitchell are too similar stylistically. Then there is O’Meara who is slightly quicker, but the current iteration is even less polished than those two. Shiels is purely a defensive mid, Wingard is more a half-forward who can pinch hit in the midfield but isn’t a bonafide midfielder and guys like Henderson and Scully are honest players who are declining. I’m not sure what immediate solutions there are to their checkered midfield mix.

They’ll win games by default because they’ve got an experienced squad and are well drilled, but if they don’t win a flag in the next few years, which presumably they won’t, they are going to fall off a cliff. And it’ll be a long way back given their age profile.

They’d also have to be concerned about the number of middle-tier players they have on the list with the reduction of list sizes and salary cap. That’s a lot of bloated contracts for little return on investment, which could really affect their ability to re-calibrate their squad to any great effect in the next few seasons.

 

[HAPPY BUDDHA]

They definitely cannot succeed if they keep ignoring the 2nd half of footy games.

 

[ChappyUK]

Switched on tonight and saw Scully, Patton and The Chad all on the park and thought for second they might be putting together a good side...but I was wrong

Moneyball might work in baseball but not in footy.

Clarko has raided the bargain bin at JBHIFI looking for a rare find but all he's found are a couple of Enya CDs.

 

[ChappyUK]

It's so refreshing to see an honest Hawks supporter

Like this one.

 

[HAPPY BUDDHA]

Moneyball might work in baseball but not in footy.

Clarko has raided the bargain bin at JBHIFI looking for a rare find but all he's found are a couple of Enya CDs.

Grabbed a few R-Kelly free-bee casingles too by the look of it.

 

[RUNVS]

Moneyball might work in baseball but not in footy.

Clarko has raided the bargain bin at JBHIFI looking for a rare find but all he's found are a couple of Enya CDs.

For years it did work, and worked really well as Hawthorn traded to plug small holes in their list. The problem is that strategy only works when you have a few small holes. If your list has structural issues then trying to find cheap players who are undervalued at their current club is not going to help much, or at all if you keep having to give draft picks for them.

I mean as good as they have been, how much did Wingard and O'Meara cost them. They are great players but they cost a small fortune for Hawthorn to get, and took away an opportunity for Hawthorn to draft kids. In fact Wingard meant trading away the one kid Hawthorn fans had been really excited about, so Wingard made them older, with fewer younger talented players.

 

[banzai]

Hawthorn got it wrong when they let Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis go for next to nothing. Everyone said they were being ruthless. If they wanted to be ruthless they would have kept those guys and traded Breust, Gunston and Smith. Easily get a first rounder for each of them at the time. Now they wouldnt have finished top 4 in 2018 but would surely be better placed now. They could still have picked up Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard anyway.

 

[HAPPY BUDDHA]

Hawthorn got it wrong when they let Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis go for next to nothing. Everyone said they were being ruthless. If they wanted to be ruthless they would have kept those guys and traded Breust, Gunston and Smith. Easily get a first rounder for each of them at the time. Now they wouldnt have finished top 4 in 2018 but would surely be better placed now. They could still have picked up Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard anyway.

This. The Hawthorn way of retiring champions early to save face - whether it be personal records or club status - is ridiculous, archaic and just Plain stubborn.
Derm wanted to be a 1 club player, Tuck, Mitchell and Lewis no doubt too.
In fact I’m having a go here and saying even Rioli bailed early before he also got a tap on the shoulder.

No way to rebuild your list to have former greats playing against your young blokes the next season.

 

[Red Bull]

Some will say what Hawthorn tried was different.
Some will say it was weak.
Whatever you think, in the era of drafting/salary cap, their plan has proven to be akin to trying to stop the tide coming in and there will be inevitable pain to follow.

 

[Cadillac]

The old fashioned mark and kick Patton will be no better than Tyrone Vickery