Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[boncer34]

So therefore is the real question actually: is there a difference between 'drafting' top 10 talent, or 'trading' top 10 talent?

That question is no different to the premise of this thread.

And to be honest I'm not going to bother going around in circles again. Hawthorn is going a path untried, for some reason pointing this out has seemed to offend many of their fans.

We don't know if they can or can't succeed without drafting their own players in the top 10/15. Their 3 peat foundation was built on early picks.

But I'm done with this thread, I've answered the same questions over and over. Until Hawthorn either win the flag (succeed) or cave and use draft picks we won't know the answer.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Yeah, they're 3 and 1 and have already played the top 3 from last season.

Reckon they be fine. Reckon you are all being "Clarko'd."

 

[MightyHawks]

Well no. If it doesn't work then it shows no they can't.

Perhaps splitting hairs but we don't know if they can yet. That might change in future.

Pretty much everyone in this thread has the same view - Hawthorn might succeed with this strategy, but maybe they won't

There are a handful of people who say no it's impossible for Hawthorn to succeed. And one or two that might be suggesting Hawthorn will definitely succeed

 

[Pessimistic]

Will finish 6-10

No reason Hawks cant finish 2-3, but its a hard season to predict

 

[Pessimistic]

Pretty much everyone in this thread has the same view - Hawthorn might succeed with this strategy, but maybe they won't

There are a handful of people who say no it's impossible for Hawthorn to succeed. And one or two that might be suggesting Hawthorn will definitely succeed

The extreme is those saying hawks and clarko are full of hubris, and will be as crazy as sheedy by the end

 

[Sirlemsip]

That question is no different to the premise of this thread.

And to be honest I'm not going to bother going around in circles again. Hawthorn is going a path untried, for some reason pointing this out has seemed to offend many of their fans.

We don't know if they can or can't succeed without drafting their own players in the top 10/15. Their 3 peat foundation was built on early picks.

But I'm done with this thread, I've answered the same questions over and over. Until Hawthorn either win the flag (succeed) or cave and use draft picks we won't know the answer.

The issue I (and many other people) have with the thread is that the thread title suggests that focussing on the elite end of the draft somehow 'guarantees' success. It clearly does not.

New franchises aside (GC/GWS), for every Richmond (Cotchin, Rance, Martin) and Bulldogs (Bontempelli, Macrae, Stringer) premiership win, there is a Carlton (Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer) and Melbourne (Watts, Scully, Trengove, Toumpas) that has not reached 'success'.

In fact, given that there are 18 clubs, 10-15 'elite' picks and only one premiership/success per year (if that is the measure you want to use), you'd have to say that focusing on the 'elite end' of the draft is more likely to lead to a failure than a success - particularly when a handful of clubs have shared the majority of the past 20 premierships (Hawthorn 4, Geelong/Brisbane 3, West Coast/Sydney/Richmond 2)

Yes, Hawthorn are trying something different and we don't yet know whether this will be a 'success', but the other option is no sure thing.

 

[Pessimistic]

So therefore is the real question actually: is there a difference between 'drafting' top 10 talent, or 'trading' top 10 talent?

For mine, its a choice between 40% of the career of a known quantity, or drafting a player who has a 40% the chance of being a player.

You pay more than 2 good players or picks for an A grader, but next to nothing for role players.

BTW hawks are doing both

 

[Sirlemsip]

For mine, its a choice between 40% of the career of a known quantity, or drafting a player who has a 40% the chance of being a player.

You pay more than 2 good players or picks for an A grader, but next to nothing for role players.

BTW hawks are doing both

I agree, but it is also a bit more complicated than that - you have to look beyond each individual trade too.

As previously highlighted in the thread, the Wingard trade on its own looks like we paid 'overs' due to the loss of Burton. However, given we also traded a 4th round pick for Scrimshaw, who is 'top 10 talent', overall the two trades balance out (i'd say we actually come out on top).

 

[Pessimistic]

I agree, but it is also a bit more complicated than that - you have to look beyond each individual trade too.

As previously highlighted in the thread, the Wingard trade on its own looks like we paid 'overs' due to the loss of Burton. However, given we also traded a 4th round pick for Scrimshaw, who is 'top 10 talent', overall the two trades balance out (i'd say we actually come out on top).

sometimes you do better, sometimes worse. We know hawks went hard for Cogs and Tom Lynch, and missed out - but we can see thy types they are after. and we all know where we busted (thankfully a lot less than the wins)

Anyway Hawks arent on their own here. Several teams have 10 players in most experienced 22 traded in. Hawks are slightly more at 13. The threepeat teams had 7-10

 

[Milanista28]

Just a soulless group

 

[Pessimistic]

Pree dictable

 

[StevoBruiser]

Clarko should reconsider his position.

 

[Ambrosia]

Patiently waiting for the long winded post from hk89 about how Hawthorn actually beat GWS and are on track to win the 2020 premiership.

 

[SA HAWK]

No

End thread

 

[Red Bull]

Win one ... lose one
Win one ... lose one
Such is life for an ordinary middle of the road club these days ... except when you have the oldest list in the competition ...

 

[Joao]

Every team has looked dire at least once this season. I genuinely have no idea whether they can win it or not but I feel like they are in the mix.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Best coach and poor list

vs

Worst coach in the league and the best list

GWS showing talent wins out

 

[Xtreme]

Can't do much when GWS had 3 extra members on their team!

Hawthorn are still the best team of the modern era.

 

[Chrisonater]

Just treading water just like the last 3 seasons

 

[Hawk_francais]

Ah yes, the "Hawthorn just lost a game" thread

 

[boncer34]

Ah yes, the "Hawthorn just lost a game" thread

Lol what?
Hawks fans flock here en masse when they win. Let's not pretend it's a one way street.

 

[Ambrosia]

Ah yes, the "Hawthorn just lost a game" thread

It’s also the Hawthorn just a won a game thread

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Today was pretty ugly. I'm concerned Worpel has no role with Mitchell in the side. Hawthorn can ostensibly only play one.

 

[boncer34]

The answer remains no. And will continue to remain so until they change path or win the flag.

Tonight's game doesn't change it.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Win one ... lose one
Win one ... lose one
Such is life for an ordinary middle of the road club these days ... except when you have the oldest list in the competition ...

We won two in a row thank you very much!