Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Pinnell]

Bye bye Hawks. See you in ten years time

 

[queensberryrules]

Bloody slow.
They have had this problem for at least a year. There are still game day threads from 2019 where this is discussed, the rejoiner is that they need a forward line to kick and move the ball to quickly. I am not sure about that. I think Clarko was successful in 3 of his 4 flags by controlling closely all aspects, worked brilliantly with the team he had, and that is still his mantra. There seems to be little room for some unrestrained exuberance. They may well be over-coached, or over instructed at the moment. One little part of the plan is pulled apart and the rest falls apart. At least that's what it looks like to me.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Bloody slow.
They have had this problem for at least a year. There are still game day threads from 2019 where this is discussed, the rejoiner is that they need a forward line to kick and move the ball to quickly. I am not sure about that. I think Clarko was successful in 3 of his 4 flags by controlling closely all aspects, worked brilliantly with the team he had, and that is still his mantra. There seems to be little room for some unrestrained exuberance. They may well be over-coached, or over instructed at the moment. One little part of the plan is pulled apart and the rest falls apart. At least that's what it looks like to me.

They haven't got the players they once had and a few of them left are slowwwwwwwww.....

 

[Pessimistic]

Suffering from not as much coaching as usual probably

 

[Guardian Hawk]

I think Hawthorns list strategy was a viable option. Going after Mitchell and o meara at their ages (22ish) to replace the aging stars rather than take a risk on a draft pick that may be half as good was a clever move. Especially with FA - having the team still strong was the right gamble in an environment where you can get talent for free.

Don't have an issue with Scully and Patton either as they were basically free. Some say they take list spots but those spots would have gone to 4th nd 5th round draft picks who usually don't even play a game so they're ahead there.

Where they went wrong IMO was with the philosophy that you fulfil your commitment to a player regardless of cost because 'that will make players want to work for you' (ie attract free agents). Other clubs leveraged that commitment which saw Hawthorn pay way too much for O Meara and Wingard. They needed to be able to walk away from those deals. Was a misnomer anyway as FAs have not picked Hawthorn- they don't care about the 'environment' that much - players care about the likelihood for success and contract and we have not been very convincing on the first of those.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think Hawthorns list strategy was a viable option. Going after Mitchell and o meara at their ages (22ish) to replace the aging stars rather than take a risk on a draft pick that may be half as good was a clever move. Especially with FA - having the team still strong was the right gamble in an environment where you can get talent for free.

Don't have an issue with Scully and Patton either as they were basically free. Some say they take list spots but those spots would have gone to 4th nd 5th round draft picks who usually don't even play a game so they're ahead there.

Where they went wrong IMO was with the philosophy that you fulfil your commitment to a player regardless of cost because 'that will make players want to work for you' (ie attract free agents). Other clubs leveraged that commitment which saw Hawthorn pay way too much for O Meara and Wingard. They needed to be able to walk away from those deals. Was a misnomer anyway as FAs have not picked Hawthorn- they don't care about the 'environment' that much - players care about the likelihood for success and contract and we have not been very convincing on the first of those.

One part of the strategy - compared to the gut and rebuild is that more clubs are doing it to an extent, so theres less teams offering a McEvoy, instread asking for extreme amounts of players picks in a competitive market.

Also we drafted at least 2 'elites' in 2019. Its not like Hawks have not done both.


And if lists really are reduced drastically - does the whole strategy change again? you cant have project picks on your list.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Also, not completely convinced the cliff has already come (though obviously with current list demographic it is a matter of time).

Yes, Hawthorn have been terrible the last 2 weeks and there is NO legitimate excuse but this is an odd season and after 4 weeks the Hawks were 3-1 and in the top 4 with the hardest draw to date.

Since then, they have moved the whole club within 2 days of playing GWS on their home deck and then backed up with a 5 day turn around and played Collingwood. A great team would overcome regardless but as we've seen this year, many teams have been affected by less.

I reckon (or hope) in a month or so Hawthorn may well be firmly entrenched back in the 8 rather than languishing near the bottom. Whether that changes the narrative on list strategy is another matter altogether.

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks will peak around 2022. Whether thats a pinched premiership or just winning a couple of finals remains to be seen.

 

[boncer34]

Also, not completely convinced the cliff has already come (though obviously with current list demographic it is a matter of time).

Yes, Hawthorn have been terrible the last 2 weeks and there is NO legitimate excuse but this is an odd season and after 4 weeks the Hawks were 3-1 and in the top 4 with the hardest draw to date.

Since then, they have moved the whole club within 2 days of playing GWS on their home deck and then backed up with a 5 day turn around and played Collingwood. A great team would overcome regardless but as we've seen this year, many teams have been affected by less.

I reckon (or hope) in a month or so Hawthorn may well be firmly entrenched back in the 8 rather than languishing near the bottom. Whether that changes the narrative on list strategy is another matter altogether.

Based on last year sure.

Based on this year you got belted by 2nd, were very good against 3rd, belted 6th, scrapped over 16th and very poor against 5th and 10th.

Admittedly where they are on the ladder right this second isn't entirely reflective on their levels, but I'm not sure that argument makes it better or worse for the Hawks.

In terms of making the top 8 the percentage is a problem for the Hawks, in a season of low scoring to have the 3rd lowest percentage isn't great. You're one solid blow out win from turning that around, but also one blow out from being pushed off the cliff percentage wise. I'll be interested to see how you go against Melbourne, I think we'll see a lot more emphasis on attack.

 

[Joao]

Hawks will peak around 2022. Whether thats a pinched premiership or just winning a couple of finals remains to be seen.

You'd need an insane list turnover (and/or youth development) for that to be the case given the amount of 28+ players in your team.

You guys need to strike now, or next year at the latest.

 

[Pessimistic]

You'd need an insane list turnover (and/or youth development) for that to be the case given the amount of 28+ players in your team.

You guys need to strike now, or next year at the latest.

I didn't say they wont be trying till some mythical 'window' opens. I'm saying the peak will come then.

Funny how all in hearing 'Jordan Lewis" regarding rebuild etc. Lewis was the one moved on before his time came

 

[blaisee]

The hawks have had a heap of success over the last decade

Time to stick fat as they will now rebuild

 

[Joao]

I didn't say they wont be trying till some mythical 'window' opens. I'm saying the peak will come then.

Funny how all in hearing 'Jordan Lewis" regarding rebuild etc. Lewis was the one moved on before his time came

I understood what you said, I am wondering how you came to the conclusion that you will peak in 2 years? My reasoning is your team on the weekend was 27.2 years on average. Lets assume Burgoyne isn't immortal and has retired and been replaced by someone 10 years younger. That means your average age would be about 28.6. I think it is reasonable to assume that more than handful of your current B22 will not be of premiership winning standard in 2022. That means you have to replace them. I would be curious as to where those players are coming from?

I could see it this year if you get going and maybe next year, but I am sure too many current players won't be doing enough past that to reach any sort or recent or near peak. I personally think your peak was the back half of 2019.

Not sure what Lewis has to do with it either.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Only took two years for the media to catch on.

 

[HirdyLannister]

I do enjoy the fact that Mitchell, Wingard and O'Meara were sold magic beans and snake oil unbeknown that their careers will end up in the abyss.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Will Clarko abandon ship?

 

[TylerDurden]

I do enjoy the fact that Mitchell, Wingard and O'Meara were sold magic beans and snake oil unbeknown that their careers will end up in the abyss.

Would Tom be happier at the Swans at present??

 

[TylerDurden]

Will Clarko abandon ship?

There's a plan to hand over to S Mitchell. Will it happen early is the question.

 

[WWSD]

I do enjoy the fact that Mitchell, Wingard and O'Meara were sold magic beans and snake oil unbeknown that their careers will end up in the abyss.

Like Stringer and Shiel?

 

[HirdyLannister]

Would Tom be happier at the Swans at present??

The swans certainly have more upside in young talent, just need to get rid of their dreadful coach.

 

[SA HAWK]

Will Clarko abandon ship?

I am 100% sure he won’t be coach in 2022.

 

[boncer34]

Only took two years for the media to catch on.

View attachment 911746

As well as those listed in the highlighted years they grabbed Xavier Ellis, Max Bailey and Brent Renouf who all played a role in a flag. Ellis stiff not to be a Norm Smith medallist.

2008 grabbed Schoenmakers and 2010 Isaac Smith.

 

[boncer34]

I am 100% sure he won’t be coach in 2022.

Why?

 

[SA HAWK]

Why?

I think he was going for a 5th flag the last few years and will leave at the end of his current contract as he seems unwilling to rebuild.

 

[TylerDurden]

The swans certainly have more upside in young talent, just need to get rid of their dreadful coach.

Hahaha righto.
And Port were pushing Chad out the door from memory.