Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Gavin Excell]

Brendon Bolton actually coached us to a win against The Hawks in the final round of 2018.

Good times.

1 win from 20?

 

[WWSD]

The symbolism is one club going south while the other going the other way

Givem hawks amazing winning record v Carlton, if blues prevail will pretty much put the full stop on the hawks era

There’s no guarantee that Carlton will even win a Premiership with their current list. They may end up like St Kilda of the 2000s!

 

[RobbieK]

The symbolism is one club going south while the other going the other way

Givem hawks amazing winning record v Carlton, if blues prevail will pretty much put the full stop on the hawks era

I think there was more symbolism in the game today. Blues have been down a long time, eventually it was going to turn around, whereas the Swans and Hawks have both maintained a position at the top of the table for the best part of the last decade and had a close rivalry, played off in a number of Grand finals, but both have fallen away from true premiership contention in the last couple of years. The Swans have gone for a rebuild with youth, the Hawks haven't, and you would have to say that on today's performance look a lot closer to getting back in to contention.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Today was huge for a lot of people still hurting from 5 years ago. A lot of the regulars itt get more excitement from hawks losing than they do their own team winning. Which is fine btw, im not going to judge.

We suck right now but our list is in a good position to recover with our best players (gunston aside) still 24-26.

Our time will come again in a year or two, its the nature of the beast. Some teams capitalise on their time in the sun, some dont. I just hope we continue to avoid wasting our time up top like so many other teams do when it is their turn.

Poster living in the same dreamworld as Clarko. Mate, your list is cooked!

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Poster living in the same dreamworld as Clarko. Mate, your list is cooked!

Oh the ironing from a Crows supporter.

 

[RudyBlue]

Brendon Bolton actually coached us to a win against The Hawks in the final round of 2018.

Good times.

*penultimate round of 2017

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

*penultimate round of 2017

Ah thanks. Knocked the Hawks out of finals contention that year as well I believe. Good times.

 

[Vindicater]

if he was at Hawtjorn still no one would rate him anywhere near as highly.

Hawthorn fans would.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Hawthorn fans would.

You miss the ones that went off him in his last year at the Hawks?

 

[Milanista28]

Oh the ironing from a Crows supporter.

I don't think he's arguing in another thread that the Crows list is star studded. His opinion on the Hawks list is most likely correct

 

[Sonny Hayes]

There’s no guarantee that Carlton will even win a Premiership with their current list. They may end up like St Kilda of the 2000s!

Mate that would be a good result... every supporter with a young list thinks it’s only a matter of time. Premierships are hard to come by.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

It was interesting to hear Clarkson say today that there isn’t really a “strategy” as such, more that they look at each situation on its merits and whether a trade provides value.

Wise in theory, but I think some tremendous missteps in assessing that value has landed them in some trouble.

Obviously talking about the O’Meara and Wingard trades.

A lot of convoluted trades, pick swaps and steak knives here and there... but taking all that out...

To get O’Meara and Wingard, the Hawks lost:

Brad Hill
Ryan Burton
2016 Pick 36
2017 Pick 7
2017 Pick 26
2018 Pick 15
2018 Pick 35

That’s a hell of a price. Hill is a star, Burton a 23yo solid senior player who the Hawks seemed to rate... and then there’s five good draft picks, which give a lot of scope for talented youth to come in.

What’s particularly significant is with the picks they have actually had, the Hawks have found themselves some decent kids. What could they have done with five more Top 40 picks?

Now if you were talking say two key forwards that you’d build a team around - or a key forward and a star mid - then okay. But is that O’Meara and Wingard? I don’t think so.

Ultimately it’s these two acquisitions that could end up really hurting Hawthorn.

The Hill trade is another interesting part of it. The Hawks only netted pick 23 for him (which they on-traded). When the Dockers later dealt him to St Kilda, they got pick 10, a 2020 R2 selection and Blake Acres in return.

Freo seemed to have made out like bandits when they acquired Hill from the Hawks. Perhaps the Hawks were too desperate to get that pick 23 in because they needed it for other deals, and didn’t really thrash out proper value in the trade.

 

[Magma]

He’s been pretty quiet in the SANFL this year mate. He’s a really good size but I don’t think he’s a super elite prospect. Certainly doesn’t have the King type athleticism.

personally i disagree. i feel thilthorpe has an even higher ceiling than rankine. rankine is outrageously talented, no doubt about that, but thilthorpe is still getting to grips with his size and where he wants to play. he has been playing all over the ground for us. i believe he wants to play midfield one day. only just turned 18 and would have to be about 202 cm and 100kg. once he fills out and gets that strength that guys at 22-23 really start to develop i think he'll be an absolute monster.

they'll both have fantastic careers but it's just all guesswork and predictions now.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Lewis Taylor would like a word.

You are forgetting superstar Rhys Palmer.

 

[Toump Ass]

Yikes. Send your bank account deets to Glenferrie. I dont think its fair they are living in your head rent free.

I don't think you understand what "rent free" means.

Your coach has lost the plot and it's ****ing hilarious.
And seeing Hawk supporters slowly figure out their list of super-recruits like Patton and Scully is an abject failure- that shit is priceless.

I'll thoroughly enjoy watching your club at the bottom of the ladder for the next decade.

Rent Free my ass. I should be buying a dozen memberships for all the enjoyment I'm getting from yellow and brown stinking it up (but I'm not going to).

 

[Sonny Hayes]

I don't think you understand what "rent free" means.

Your coach has lost the plot and it's ******* hilarious.
And seeing Hawk supporters slowly figure out their list of super-recruits like Patton and Scully is an abject failure- that sh*t is priceless.

I'll thoroughly enjoy watching your club at the bottom of the ladder for the next decade.

Rent Free my ass. I should be buying a dozen memberships for all the enjoyment I'm getting from yellow and brown stinking it up (but I'm not going to).

'for the next decade'

Yeah mate because all list turnovers take a decade to get right

 

[Toump Ass]

Yeah mate because all list turnovers take a decade to get right

Hawthorn aren't getting their list turnover right though.

It's like they're aiming for the middle of the ladder and they're not quite getting there.

 

[HeHateMe]

It was interesting to hear Clarkson say today that there isn’t really a “strategy” as such, more that they look at each situation on its merits and whether a trade provides value.

Wise in theory, but I think some tremendous missteps in assessing that value has landed them in some trouble.

Obviously talking about the O’Meara and Wingard trades.

A lot of convoluted trades, pick swaps and steak knives here and there... but taking all that out...

To get O’Meara and Wingard, the Hawks lost:

Brad Hill
Ryan Burton
2016 Pick 36
2017 Pick 7
2017 Pick 26
2018 Pick 15
2018 Pick 35

That’s a hell of a price. Hill is a star, Burton a 23yo solid senior player who the Hawks seemed to rate... and then there’s five good draft picks, which give a lot of scope for talented youth to come in.

What’s particularly significant is with the picks they have actually had, the Hawks have found themselves some decent kids. What could they have done with five more Top 40 picks?

Now if you were talking say two key forwards that you’d build a team around - or a key forward and a star mid - then okay. But is that O’Meara and Wingard? I don’t think so.

Ultimately it’s these two acquisitions that could end up really hurting Hawthorn.

The Hill trade is another interesting part of it. The Hawks only netted pick 23 for him (which they on-traded). When the Dockers later dealt him to St Kilda, they got pick 10, a 2020 R2 selection and Blake Acres in return.

Freo seemed to have made out like bandits when they acquired Hill from the Hawks. Perhaps the Hawks were too desperate to get that pick 23 in because they needed it for other deals, and didn’t really thrash out proper value in the trade.

Pretty spot on imo. I've argued that O'Meara and Wingard were correct strategic decisions but the above bolded point is hard to argue with.

And yeah don't get me started on Hill, I was livid at the time. Everyone said I was overeating Hill but I knew he was 23 yr old on the cusp of breaking out. You should never trade those players.

 

[rei154]

I don't think you understand what "rent free" means.

Your coach has lost the plot and it's ******* hilarious.
And seeing Hawk supporters slowly figure out their list of super-recruits like Patton and Scully is an abject failure- that sh*t is priceless.

I'll thoroughly enjoy watching your club at the bottom of the ladder for the next decade.

Rent Free my ass. I should be buying a dozen memberships for all the enjoyment I'm getting from yellow and brown stinking it up (but I'm not going to).

This statement might age as well as your BigFooty location, chief.
Who knows what's going to happen in the next decade- 2020 is a crazy season but I'm not sure it'll be indicative of what's to come, but right now I'm backing us to recover WITHIN a decade- something your lot haven't seemed to be able to figure out in the last what... five decades?

 

[HeHateMe]

Another thing I've been pondering is:

It's been said Hawks don't rate late teens 1st round picks and are more then happy to trade them as they deem them over valued. I've seen some statistical measures on the odds players in that range go onto to play 200 games it's about the same as early 3rd round picks.

But ironically when hawthorn have used a pick in that range we have seemed to always nail it, could be an early call on some but off the top of my head we have drafted Rioli, Smith, Burton and Day.

Could this just be good scouting, keep the pick when you know said players will be available otherwise trade it. I'm not so sure.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I dont care if Hawks are able to succeed but can they be shit for one more week please!!

 

[Sonny Hayes]

I dont care if Hawks are able to succeed but can they be sh*t for one more week please!!

Oh mate... Sleep easy this week you have absolutely nothing to worry about

 

[Ambrosia]

Get the feeling they put far too much stock in beating West Coast last year in the final round.

2020 could have been the first year of their list rebuild (or whatever the word is these days). The losing wouldn’t be half as depressing if they’d gone to the draft last year and turned over the list.

- Not signing some or all of Puopolo, Minchington, Hartley, Brooksby, Burgoyne and Patton.

- Trading out one of Ceglar or McEvoy and keeping Pittonet

That’s 6 or 7 extra kids they could have on the list at this stage. Sure maybe only 1 or 2 of them would of made it but at least the club list would have direction.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Clarko’s plan just need some tweaks and a little more time and more success will day be just around the corner.

Ok matey.

 

[HeHateMe]

I dont care if Hawks are able to succeed but can they be sh*t for one more week please!!

Don't worrie you guys will smash us. At the moment the issue we have go well above the talent on the field. It's got a Richmond 2016 feel about it. (I am not saying we have the same quality of list as that team)

I just hope we have the balls like they did to go down and have a massive review of the entire club as they did.