- Jul 13, 2015
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How many 28+ year old players have the Swans removed in the last 2 years?
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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2
- Thread starter Bunk Moreland
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How many 28+ year old players have the Swans removed in the last 2 years?
There is trouble brewing for sure. A bit the same for the Cats I think, but they may be a year or two ahead re their drafting of youth, and may have more flexibility in options, and probably able to pick up more free agents looking to finish their careers "back home" where they started.
I think by the end of 2021 the Hawks will no longer have BB, Burgoyne, Frawley, Smith, Ceglar, Scully, Henederson, Stratton, Puopolo, Minchington, Brooksby on their list. Some will go this year, other next. That's a lot to lose, and there is no way they can be replaced by two drafts or trading in. In fact it can only really be either draft or trade, b/c if you trade you don't have the picks, and if you draft you don't haven't the currency for trading.
If the Hawks draft high picks, they will be at least 3-5 years until they are consistently performing, probably longer for them to be a true core for the team.
So who will still be on the Hawks list in say 5 years? Or, who will be on the Hawks list in 5 years and still playing at a premiership level?
Well none of those who I have said will be leaving in the next two years for a start. I would suggest that it is likely that Bruest, Patton, Gunston, TOM, JOM, Sicily, Frost, Wingard, Shiels, will be past their best, and some even long gone.
So IF hawthorn can nail the draft for the next two years, hitting 3-4 very good players (impossible with their picks and to do it two years in a row, and with the issues around this years draft - covid, compromise), then they can replace those going off the list, but the new draftees won't be ready until the current core, middle aged group are already past it. They WON'T be able to draft in replacement players b/c they will need to use all their picks to try to ace the draft over the next 2-4/5 years.
The load that will rest on the young players could crush them. Even if they survive, the team will not have enough players in the right bracket of talent, age and experience to contend in the next 5 years, and likely 5 more after that as well.
It is possible that the Hawks could be about to head into the type of period they experienced in their first 30-40 years in the league. They could struggle for many decades, and the law of averages and the equalization measures of the AFL indicate a pretty long period of wilderness for the Hawks in my opinion.
I think by the end of 2021 the Hawks will no longer have BB, Burgoyne, Frawley, Smith, Ceglar, Scully, Henederson, Stratton, Puopolo, Minchington, Brooksby on their list. Some will go this year, other next. That's a lot to lose, and there is no way they can be replaced by two drafts or trading in. In fact it can only really be either draft or trade, b/c if you trade you don't have the picks, and if you draft you don't haven't the currency for trading.
If the Hawks draft high picks, they will be at least 3-5 years until they are consistently performing, probably longer for them to be a true core for the team.
So who will still be on the Hawks list in say 5 years? Or, who will be on the Hawks list in 5 years and still playing at a premiership level?
Well none of those who I have said will be leaving in the next two years for a start. I would suggest that it is likely that Bruest, Patton, Gunston, TOM, JOM, Sicily, Frost, Wingard, Shiels, will be past their best, and some even long gone.
So IF hawthorn can nail the draft for the next two years, hitting 3-4 very good players (impossible with their picks and to do it two years in a row, and with the issues around this years draft - covid, compromise), then they can replace those going off the list, but the new draftees won't be ready until the current core, middle aged group are already past it. They WON'T be able to draft in replacement players b/c they will need to use all their picks to try to ace the draft over the next 2-4/5 years.
The load that will rest on the young players could crush them. Even if they survive, the team will not have enough players in the right bracket of talent, age and experience to contend in the next 5 years, and likely 5 more after that as well.
It is possible that the Hawks could be about to head into the type of period they experienced in their first 30-40 years in the league. They could struggle for many decades, and the law of averages and the equalization measures of the AFL indicate a pretty long period of wilderness for the Hawks in my opinion.
Oh dear
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Yep, our last 3 top 10 picks were Thorp, Dowler and Ellis.
Imagine if we picked something similar over the last 3 drafts, people would be loling saying we should have stuck to our tried and trusted trading.
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Wouldn't they be saying "Hawthorn don't have any young talent", like they are saying now?
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Hahaha. Nice doomsday scenario but won't happen.
Our list management team are right up there with the best. Wright has been there 13 years. Planning for this very moment.
I'm actually looking fwd to it now. I'll back these guys at the top in every time
HeHateMe
Norm Smith Medallist
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This makes sense. Damn, I would have thought this group would have had a better resolve then that.
Sure. They're your team.
I think what I suggested is possible outcome. I think its less emotional than a supporters view.
Only time will tell of course, but I wouldn't be overly confident of where the Hawks stand ATM and going forward.
Its not unheard of. You've been there before haven't you?You're talking about decades into the future.
Righto Nostradamus
Melbourne have, Collingwood have, Tiges have, Geelong have, Sydney have, Bombers have, Carlton have, the Saints and Dogs live there. Adelaide have been there for 25 years, North have had long lean patches. It is what happens, and things look like they might be lining up again for the Hawks to spend a few decades in the wilderness.
We can only hope.
Mate we've won 14 flags since the 70s.Its not unheard of. You've been there before haven't you?
Melbourne have, Collingwood have, Tiges have, Geelong have, Sydney have, Bombers have, Carlton have, the Saints and Dogs live there. Adelaide have been there for 25 years, North have had long lean patches. It is what happens, and things look like they might be lining up again for the Hawks to spend a few decades in the wilderness.
We can only hope.
You're referring to the wrong club here, with all due respect.
That attitude is a killer for a start.
But all great clubs have long periods of wilderness. You look like you might be next.
Hold on tight mate, I think you might be riding many a bump with a grin for some time to come.
Sonny Hayes
Brownlow Medallist
Mate you are predicting decades in the wilderness because we have an average list currently. That is one of the most over the top ridiculous comments in this thread and that is saying a lot.
Like your 40 years pre 2007 yeah?
You've got more players over 30 on your list than ours. Glass houses and stones and all that.
I don't expect you to like the idea.
Sonny Hayes
Brownlow Medallist
It’s just based off nothing... I could say the same thing about Geelong or Richmond or the Crows... It’s just a ridiculous and baseless ‘idea’
My point exactly, and why I started my first post saying Geelong are in a similar position, with a few tweaks and privileges that may see them over come what could happen to Hawthorn.
Cats 40 years wilderness, Bombers down, Carlton down, Sydney had 60 years, Collingwood have won 2 flags in 60 years, Tiger were out for 35. It happens, and I think it might be you turn next.
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Nah. I gave a long explanation of why I thought it could happen. Read it, or read it again.
- Jul 13, 2015
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In 2015 the consensus was the Dogs were years off contending. In 2016 it was the Tigers. Who not only needed players, but a new coach.
Sonny Hayes
Brownlow Medallist
I read it once and most certainly won’t be reading that rubbish again.
you gave an opinion on why our list will be bad for the next 5-10 years (strongly disagree that you can predict a list in 10 years but what ever)
multiple decades you gave no reasoning for and you have no way of doing so.
Sonny Hayes
Brownlow Medallist
Absolutely!
The amount of list turnover from teams over the course of a decade is insane, predictions claiming anything for certain is stupid beyond belief.
Then you can sleep the sleep of the eternally successful. Nothing to worry about.
Except there is no such thing as forever successful, esp. in the AFL.
Good luck with the future.
- Jul 13, 2015
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Well, if a team does something wrong and continues to do the same thing then you have a good shot of it continuing to go wrong.
But coaches dont know for sure what will work, so the idea that media and supporters know is just dumb.
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