Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Foucault1989]

Not all teams with top end draft picks win premierships. But all premiership teams have top end picks.

That hasn't changed on the back of one win.

Yes it has. Hawthorn are back. Clarko is a genius. Their list is in great shape, the draft is overrated, Carlton are shit, age profile is fine - nothing to see here.

 

[TylerDurden]

Are Hawks fans gonna turn their back on Scrimshaw as quickly as they did Burton? He's looking very average.

Going better than old mate Redman on Charlie last night.

 

[boncer34]

Going better than old mate Redman on Charlie last night.

Did you switch the Hawks game off last night?

 

[TylerDurden]

Did you switch the Hawks game off last night?

Was about to until young gun Day drained his first goal from 45m on the run.
Did you switch off the Dons mauling?

 

[boncer34]

Was about to until young gun Day drained his first goal from 45m on the run.
Did you switch off the Dons mauling?

Why would I?

 

[hk89]

Did you switch off the Dons mauling?

I'm not sure you could call it a mauling. A mauling implies a certain level of resistance, and perhaps some defensive wounds. When you throw chopped liver into the lion enclosure, and the lions eat it up at their leisure, that's not a mauling, that's feeding time at the zoo.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Oh boy, haven’t Hawks fans moved on quickly from last weeks demolition at the hands of Sydney’s NEAFL side to take the scalp of the mighty 12th-placed Blues.

‘Could this be the firestarter?!’

Hawthorn winning odd games here and there is great. It keeps the false belief going that their list isn't so bad and they just need a few top ups to be competitive once again. Just like last year when they won a few junktime games at the end of the year to finish 9th and the hope was renewed that they weren't far off, so they brought in injury-prone spuds like Patton.

 

[hk89]

Hawthorn winning odd games here and there is great. It keeps the false belief going that their list isn't so bad and they just need a few top ups to be competitive once again.

I feel the same way about Essendon when they make finals every second year or so, but never win one. Dodo tells his disciples, "clearly we are good enough to MAKE finals, now if we just had one more half back flanker or small mid, we'd be set for a flag". 5810 days and counting.

 

[SA HAWK]

Hawthorn winning odd games here and there is great. It keeps the false belief going that their list isn't so bad and they just need a few top ups to be competitive once again. Just like last year when they won a few junktime games at the end of the year to finish 9th and the hope was renewed that they weren't far off, so they brought in injury-prone spuds like Patton.

Unfortunately spud McKernan wasn’t available.

 

[TylerDurden]

Hawthorn winning odd games here and there is great. It keeps the false belief going that their list isn't so bad and they just need a few top ups to be competitive once again. Just like last year when they won a few junktime games at the end of the year to finish 9th and the hope was renewed that they weren't far off, so they brought in injury-prone spuds like Patton.

Coz your key tall spuds in Smacky, Jimmy Stewart and Don Draper are so fn good.
Oh yeah and Joey, who can't get on the park and wants to leave

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Yes it has. Hawthorn are back. Clarko is a genius. Their list is in great shape, the draft is overrated, Carlton are sh*t, age profile is fine - nothing to see here.

Yeah mate keep up the straw mans always good fun to read

 

[Jobe Watson]

I feel the same way about Essendon when they make finals every second year or so, but never win one. Dodo tells his disciples, "clearly we are good enough to MAKE finals, now if we just had one more half back flanker or small mid, we'd be set for a flag". 5810 days and counting.

Unfortunately spud McKernan wasn’t available.

Coz your key tall spuds in Smacky, Jimmy Stewart and Don Draper are so fn good.
Oh yeah and Joey, who can't get on the park and wants to leave

Deflect away, chumps.

 

[kriles76]

Unfortunately spud McKernan wasn’t available.

I heard he couldn’t get cover for his shift at StarTrack Express

 

[Foucault1989]

Yeah mate keep up the straw mans always good fun to read

I was praising Hawthorn mate

 

[WWSD]

I feel the same way about Essendon when they make finals every second year or so, but never win one. Dodo tells his disciples, "clearly we are good enough to MAKE finals, now if we just had one more half back flanker or small mid, we'd be set for a flag". 5810 days and counting.

Game, set and match!

 

[WWSD]

Deflect away, chumps.

Where did Hawthorn hurt you?

I hope you enjoy Essendon losing Daniher and Fantasia as free agents for nothing.

*fist pump*

 

[hk89]

Where did Hawthorn hurt you?

Right in the Brownlow medal. Even some time after the tragic ripping away, Jobe's avatar sported a picture of Jobe (the player) with his medal. It was heart wrenching. I actual feel for Jobe (the poster, not the drug cheating player). I'd be shattered if my hero was found guilty of drug cheating, and had the highest individual honour in the game taken away from him. I'd hope I wouldn't spend the next few years trolling the team that ended up with my hero's medal, but I certainly understand the motivations, and until we've walked in Jobe's shoes, we shouldn't be too quick to ridicule him.

 

[TylerDurden]

Where did Hawthorn hurt you?

I hope you enjoy Essendon losing Daniher and Fantasia as free agents for nothing.

*fist pump*

 

[Jobe Watson]

Where did Hawthorn hurt you?

I hope you enjoy Essendon losing Daniher and Fantasia as free agents for nothing.

*fist pump*

Another post about Essendon. You're obsessed with us.

We're all here to give our humble opinions on Hawthorn's list strategy and its failure and all you want to do is deflect.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Had to bring up 2009 hey...

Ha, yeah. But in all honesty I remembered Carlton was pretty good in 2009 because they gave us a bit of a touch up later in the season.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Where did Hawthorn hurt you?

I hope you enjoy Essendon losing Daniher and Fantasia as free agents for nothing.

*fist pump*

It’s off topic and you’re trolling, but anyway - quick point of business.

Daniher is a restricted free agent, so will either be traded or we’ll receive compensation.

Fantasia is contracted, so will be traded.

Neither will be leaving for nothing.

 

[threesixpio]

Ha, yeah. But in all honesty I remembered Carlton was pretty good in 2009 because they gave us a bit of a touch up later in the season.

It all worked out though hey?


except it never does for Carlton...

 

[hk89]

The difference in list ages really is massively overblown, and the age stats in the Friday night game really highlights this.

If at the end of the year we retire Burgoyne (likely) and Frawley (unlikely), and replace them with 18 years olds in the best 22, we'd have a best 22 around 4 months younger than the one Carlton fielded on the weekend. Sure, Carlton could do the same with their list (although a lot of their older players are already out injured), but when your 'way too old according to everyone' list can suddenly be younger than the 'young and up and coming' list with only two changes, is the age profile really that relevant?

Where your heavy lifters are distributed across the age curve is way more important than your average, as that is the big dictator of your window and your cliff. Our top 10 super coach scorers on the weekend had only one 30+ player (Burgoyne, coming in at 10th place). Ceglar and Shiels the only 29 year olds. So 3 players 29+ in our top 10 super coach scorers. That's been the pattern most weeks (and this year Burgoyne probably not top 10 very often). I don't think the age cliff is our main fear. Our issue is more about escaping being middle of the road. We've essentially hit the main part of our age cliff already, with the older players either retired (Roughy, Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis) or not being good enough to contribute anymore (Poppy, sadly perhaps Burgoyne, although if he plays more games like the weekend might still have one more year in him).

Teams going better at the moment like Geelong have players like Danger , Hawkins and Selwood that are 30+ but still very solid contributors, and it is those players we are currently lacking, if anything we need more players in the 30+ bracket that can use their leadership and experience to lift the team when the chips are down. We don't have those players anymore. Right now that has been up to younger, less experienced players, and an older captain that isn't a natural leader. The weekend was a nice fightback, so hopefully the leadership is there, we just need to hope it comes through with Mitchell, Jeager etc as they get closer to 30 in 3-4 years time.

We've still got some very important players in the 30+ range, such as Frawley and McEvoy, that we'd be somewhat screwed if they retired right now, but so do all teams, and the number of really key players in the 'immediate age cliff' range that are absolutely vital to us on field is really not as big as many people seem to think it is. We've also got some that will be moving into that range soon, like Gunston and Breust, but again, so do all teams, and it isn't so large that we can't deal with it via natural list churn, and there is no reason we need to rely on getting early picks and waiting for them to mature versus sensible trades.

 

[hk89]

It’s off topic and you’re trolling, but anyway - quick point of business.

Daniher is a restricted free agent, so will either be traded or we’ll receive compensation.

Yes, not nothing, but if it is true Sydney were offering two first rounders, it could still be a disappointing compensation. Not sure how much Daniher will be able to command salary wise after so much time out of the game, and that factor may bring him under the required threshold for first round compensation. Sydney already have one injured player soaking up large amounts of cap space, I'd imagine they'd be cautious to add another, but I'd imagine there will be other suitors who'd be willing to offer more.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Round 9

Club	Avg Age	Age Diff	Avg Gms	Gms Diff	Result
Haw	27.38	+1.19	138.8	+31.7	W
Geel	26.30	+0.39	110.1	-1.0	L
Carl	26.19	-1.19	107.0	-31.7	L
GWS	25.98	+1.51	108.5	+29.6	W
P.A.	25.97	+0.78	110.8	+18.7	W
W.C.	25.91	-0.39	111.0	+1.0	W
Coll	25.79	+1.00	92.8	+20.0	L
W.B.	25.78	+0.61	94.7	+16.9	L
Adel	25.36	0.0	82.0	-3.1	L
N.M.	25.36	0.0	85.2	+3.1	W
Melb	25.20	-0.78	92.1	-18.7	L
Rich	25.17	-0.61	77.8	-16.9	W
St.K	25.16	-0.68	82.3	+6.3	W
Ess	24.99	+0.18	76.1	-8.0	L
Bris	24.81	-0.18	84.1	+8.0	W
Frem	24.78	-1.00	72.8	-20.0	W
Syd	24.48	-0.68	76.0	-6.3	L
G.C.	24.47	-1.51	79.0	-29.6	L

Oldest teams after 9 games

Avg Age	Club	Year	Record	Ladder	Finished
27.82	N.M.	2016	9-0-0	1st	8th/18
27.58	Haw	2020	4-5-0	13th
27.51	Fitz	1946	4-5-0	6th	8th/12
27.40	Coll	1920	6-3-0	3rd	2nd/9
27.26	Fitz	1943	7-2-0	2nd	3rd/11
27.24	Melb	1920	4-5-0	7th	8th/9
27.19	Geel	2020	5-4-0	6th
27.13	Syd	1945	8-1-0	1st	2nd/12
27.09	Rich	1922	3-6-0	7th	5th/9
27.01	Fitz	1945	4-4-1	7th	6th/12

Edit: updated Adelaide, Will Hamill (Br 2007) distorting the figures.