Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[HairyO]

I know for a fact I predicted 10 wins as a best case scenario IF Mitchell wasn't 'playing the kids' in favour of our established players.

When I saw the team we named for round 1 which included Newcombe, Reeves, Lynch, Macdonald, Ward and Maginness it was clear Sam was starting this rebuild from the earliest point he could. I tempered my expectations to a 6 win season and some honourable defeats.

To end up with 8 wins fielding 8 debutants, plus pushing finals sides Melbourne, Fremantle, Collingwood to within 2 goals and defeating Geelong and Brisbane means 2022 was a successful one.

It's quite interesting to think that the 1 point loss to Carlton in round 3 and the blown chances against Collingwood could have easily resulted in a 10 win season. We were quite closer to the best case scenario than I thought we'd get to.

No idea what to expect next season though if I'm honest. At the moment a slight regression wouldn't surprise me, but neither would a sneaky 8th placing.

Really comes down to our recruiting. We need an inside bull and outside class. With both of those in ready made players we would push for 8th, but I would think far more likely to be 10th to 12th.

We also need our best players to stop the injuries. So many missed so many games.

 

[QuietB]

Can Hawthorn win a flag in 2023? No.

Can Hawthorn win a flag in 2029? Absolutely, but which team cannot?

5 of this year's top 8 finished in the bottom 4 in the last 7 years.

I’m ruling Geelong out of the 2029 flag.

I think that is the year it finally happens.

 

[La Dispute]

I suspect the Hawks will be accessing the elite end of the draft for the next few years.

How many wins will the Hawks get next year with so many senior players leaving at the end of this season?

Going to be a very inexperienced midfield in particular.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I suspect the Hawks will be accessing the elite end of the draft for the next few years.

How many wins will the Hawks get next year with so many senior players leaving at the end of this season?

Going to be a very inexperienced midfield in particular.

I'd say bottom 4 is a pretty safe bet. Not uncompetitive at all, just inconsistent and focusing more on the talent and youth.

 

[QuietB]

I suspect the Hawks will be accessing the elite end of the draft for the next few years.

How many wins will the Hawks get next year with so many senior players leaving at the end of this season?

Going to be a very inexperienced midfield in particular.

Hawks midfield could not be much worse than it was this year. Newcombe and ……….

 

[HairyO]

I suspect the Hawks will be accessing the elite end of the draft for the next few years.

How many wins will the Hawks get next year with so many senior players leaving at the end of this season?

Going to be a very inexperienced midfield in particular.

Someone else will have to step up and beat Geelong.

Mitchell will have sent away or retired everyone over the age of 28 other than Breust, Frost and Wingard.

All of Clarkos trades in other than Impey, Scrimshaw and Wingard gone.

Quite a clean out in 2 years.

 

[Xtreme]

I suspect the Hawks will be accessing the elite end of the draft for the next few years.

How many wins will the Hawks get next year with so many senior players leaving at the end of this season?

Going to be a very inexperienced midfield in particular.

Hawthorn will shock the football world by making the 2023 grand final

 

[Red Bull]

Not much joy for the hawks on the horizon.
Rebuilds are hard work …

 

[La Dispute]

I'd say bottom 4 is a pretty safe bet. Not uncompetitive at all, just inconsistent and focusing more on the talent and youth.

There will be games the Hawks will be completely uncompetitive in IMO.

If JOM and Mitchell depart, and with Shiels pulling up stumps the midfield lacks top end talent, senior experience and leadership. That’s a horrible short term combination of factors.

Newcombe looks like a great prospect but shouldn’t be expected to carry so much responsibility, but he’s going to need to by default.

Gunston and McEvoy are also big losses for a side that is going to need some significant guidance over the next few seasons.

Hawks are a real chance for the spoon next year.

 

[PT Bar None]

Someone else will have to step up and beat Geelong.

Mitchell will have sent away or retired everyone over the age of 28 other than Breust, Frost and Wingard.

All of Clarkos trades in other than Impey, Scrimshaw and Wingard gone.

Quite a clean out in 2 years.

"Mitchell's Run"

 

[HairyO]

"Mitchell's Run"

Succeed or fail its completely on him. Bold move, but hopefully the right one.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Mitchell doing a bit of the Leonardo Dicaprio here.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

There will be games the Hawks will be completely uncompetitive in IMO.

If JOM and Mitchell depart, and with Shiels pulling up stumps the midfield lacks top end talent, senior experience and leadership. That’s a horrible short term combination of factors.

Newcombe looks like a great prospect but shouldn’t be expected to carry so much responsibility, but he’s going to need to by default.

Gunston and McEvoy are also big losses for a side that is going to need some significant guidance over the next few seasons.

Hawks are a real chance for the spoon next year.

Disagree, think our talent levels are still high enough and enough leadership.

I don't think there'll be too many games where we're completely uncompetitive, i think we had like 2 in 2022?

 

[H00t]

Disagree, think our talent levels are still high enough and enough leadership.

I don't think there'll be too many games where we're completely uncompetitive, i think we had like 2 in 2022?

We might not have had many fully uncompetitive games. But we had a significant number of uncompetitive quarters where we got completely blown out.

Will be up to the youngsters to stand up now and prevent this happening. Our senior players didn’t stop it happening this year.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

We might not have had many fully uncompetitive games. But we had a significant number of uncompetitive quarters where we got completely blown out.

Will be up to the youngsters to stand up now and prevent this happening. Our senior players didn’t stop it happening this year.

Yep, but again, Gunston couldn’t since it’s hard as a forward, Jaeger didn’t, Tom tried, McEvoy was injured and Shiels didn’t play.

 

[craffles]

Succeed or fail its completely on him. Bold move, but hopefully the right one.

I don't mind it to be honest. One step back to take two steps forward. From all reports he is a very damn good coach and his individual career speaks volumes for his ability to extract every ounce of talent out of somebody. If anyone can do it it's him I reckon

 

[Scotland]

If JOM and Mitchell depart, and with Shiels pulling up stumps the midfield lacks top end talent, senior experience and leadership. That’s a horrible short term combination of factors.

Their midfield lacks top end talent already, it's just leadership and experience that would go. They have plenty of young players, time to give some of them midfield minutes and see who can cut the mustard. "Worpedo" won a B&F not that long ago, I doubt he has forgotten how to play. They drafted Maginness and Ward as mids, those guys are meant to be good.

I doubt they have player as good lying around but Elliot Yeo had 50 clearances in a season once in 6 years prior to 2018. Once given a full time midfield role his stat line for 2018 108 clearances, 132 inside 50s, 167 tackles. 2019 144 clearances, 126 inside 50s, 169 tackles. The only Hawthorn player who put(s) up those sort of numbers is Mitchell and they are most likely moving on from him so time to find the next one.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Hopefully the best talent next year is not an academy/father-son/Geelong/SA/WA/QLD/NSW player

 

[blaisee]

• Jul 29, 2019
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• #5,659

Hawthorn are playing a very risky strategy


They are relying on the cache of Clarkson to get free agents to come and save them.

Good luck with that, up to now all they have been able to attract are perennially injured mercenaries .

IE JOM, Scully. Wingard has been disappointing. Frawley Henderson, Sburger Birchall on their last legs

Worpel is a limited football, Mitchell Lewis

2

Mitchell Lewis

Age

26

Ht

199cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.9

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

4.3

1star

K

2.8

1star

HB

1.5

1star

M

0.8

1star

T

0.3

1star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

hasn't really done much, and that's about it.

The fact that Clarko has somehow made it look like they are an attractive destination for free agents has been the best marketing spin I can remember.

They are cooked .


I posted the above 3 years ago and I was right.

Funny thing is, Hawthorn still haven't reached rock bottom

Its gonna be a long long road back to relevancy. And its harder because Clarkson is gone, and Mitchell is just unlikeable.

 

[Red Bull]

Many hawks supporters believed it was just 2 years mid table then back into finals and silverware.
The reality is rebuilds are hard work and take time.
Enjoy …

 

[windyhill]

Hawks doing a north, interesting strategy, they are going to cop some absolute pumpings next year, watch the crowds drop off, like this season. sicily and frost consistently losing the plot down back will probably be the only highlights to look forward to.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawks doing a north, interesting strategy, they are going to cop some absolute pumpings next year, watch the crowds drop off, like this season. sicily and frost consistently losing the plot down back will probably be the only highlights to look forward to.

Hawthorn will still have 22 of their Top 25 from the best and fairest on the list next year.
It’s not even close to the North list purge.

 

[SSSSSS]

Hawthorn will still have 22 of their Top 25 from the best and fairest on the list next year.
It’s not even close to the North list purge.

Hawthorn live in this strange paradox where Tom Mitchell and JOM are both seen as absolute plodders by the general public yet are absolutely critical to the success of our season.

The only loss we cannot reasonably cover man for man at this stage is Gunston.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Hawks doing a north, interesting strategy, they are going to cop some absolute pumpings next year, watch the crowds drop off, like this season. sicily and frost consistently losing the plot down back will probably be the only highlights to look forward to.

Your first line proves how little awareness you actually have

Your about to have 3 Presidents inside of 3 months

Wouldn't be throwing stones

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawthorn live in this strange paradox where Tom Mitchell and JOM are both seen as absolute plodders by the general public yet are absolutely critical to the success of our season.

The only loss we cannot reasonably cover man for man at this stage is Gunston.

100%. Funny but true.