Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Pessimistic]

When Geelong traded out many first round picks, it was to fill list gaps left after years of success. Geelong had lots of players in the 28 and over bracket, and lots in the 22 and under with not much in between. Between 2014 and 2018 Geelong was known to push out older players, and in this time made 10 player trades and 3 FA signings. Hawthorn is following the Geelong model of success.

Geelongs path more creditable because they didnt really have anyone to study and follow

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Could you imagine a newly drafted Luke Hodge or Sam Mitchell not giving their all because they were drafted to an interstate club?

No, neither can I.

Considering Hodge took about 3-4 years to get his head right, yes I can.

 

[rei154]

Could you imagine a newly drafted Luke Hodge or Sam Mitchell not giving their all because they were drafted to an interstate club?

No, neither can I.

Problem with this logic is we aren't dealing with Hodge or Mitchell, and both of those players were significantly better managed and in an arguably nicer environment when they were first recruited.
In the case of Scrimshaw specifically, the kid was an avid Hawks supporter growing up and naturally is going to put in more playing in the colours he's loved for longer. He's also significantly better supported in his current environment- if GC had a different player management system he might have been a star for them.

 

[Pessimistic]

Changing clubs for the better career output is a well understood phenomenon

 

[Rev08]

Bigfooty: Hawthorn sold its soul by trading out club legends Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis to make way for a new midfield.

Also Bigfooty: Hawthorn should trade out club legends Breust, Gunston etc for first round draft picks.

Never change Bigfooty, never change.

 

[stfan]

Also Bigfooty: Hawthorn should trade out club legends Breust, Gunston etc for first round draft picks.

Based on this year's form and those players age, no club would.

So who is floating that?

 

[Luv_our_club]

Scully - fail, even at his peak he's never been anything better than an average AFL player, he doesn't look to have come back that well from his injury

Hawthorn are currently lobbying the AFL on how we can reverse that trade for Scully. We was robbed.

 

[Caj]

Sorry I should clarify my comment, it was in relation to Scully being the equivalent of a number 1 pick, something he clearly never lived up to.

On paper, the trade for the Hawks was a good one as the only real cost to them is the $500k in salary cap for the next three years. Assuming he can stay on the park for the duration of the contract, then its a win for the Hawks paying slightly overs in salary for an average to slightly better than average winger

 

[Rev08]

Based on this year's form and those players age, no club would.

So who is floating that?

Haha. Like I said, never change Bigfooty, never change.

 

[WWSD]

All of the bolded is correct, however there's a reason you got him for peanuts.

He is mentally soft as evidenced by his lack of application on the Gold Coast, and he still has a really poor tank which he hasn't managed to address after 3 pre-seasons.

That’s simply not true. Despite Scrimshaw having an injury plagued season he is still averaging more contested possessions and contested marks than Burton.

I can tell you right now having seen him play live numerous times that Scrimshaw isn’t soft. Sure he is inconsistent but when it’s his turn to go he’ll go.

 

[Caj]

That’s simply not true. Despite Scrimshaw having an injury plagued season he is still averaging more contested possessions and contested marks than Burton.

I can tell you right now having seen him play live numerous times that Scrimshaw isn’t soft. Sure he is inconsistent but when it’s his turn to go he’ll go.

I'm not saying he doesn't go hard or that he isn't talented. I question whether someone who doesn't give their best because they were drafted to an interstate club, has the mentality to be a top line AFL player in the long term

 

[Furn2]

Mitchell, O meara, Wingard, Scully, impey, Henderson, Worpel and Scrimshaw recruited in 3 years is good going.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Based on this year's form and those players age, no club would.

So who is floating that?

I hope you are joking.

Breust is a 4x premiership player, dual All Australian who never misses a match and averages more goals per game than any other small forward in the comp including Betts, Walters, De Goey, Cameron, etc. He also is top 10 in goal assists every year and is top 10 for tackles inside 50 every year also.

If you don't think any club would pay a first rounder for him you don't know what you are talking about (remember Deledio went for a first rounder, Gibbs for 2 first rounders, Chris Yarran for a first, Weller for Pick 2, etc etc. Hell, the likes of Matthew Kennedy or Jake Melksham went for a pick just outside the first round)

 

[WWSD]

Breust, Gunston and Smith all have market value whether the Hawthorn haters like it or not. Opposition clubs have already enquired about them.

Two clubs are already circling Smith.

 

[stfan]

Breust, Gunston and Smith all have market value whether the Hawthorn haters like it or not. Opposition clubs have already enquired about them.

Two clubs are already circling Smith.

Agree on going for market value.

Just not a first rounder being that market value.

Smith is over 30.

 

[matty_hawk]

not saying he doesn't go hard or that he isn't talented. I question whether someone who doesn't give their best because they were drafted to an interstate club, has the mentality to be a top line AFL player in the long term

Gunston?

 

[hawkman]

Agree on going for market value.

Just not a first rounder being that market value.

Smith is over 30.

Smith might struggle to get a 1st rounder. Breust and Gunston absolutely would get a 1st round pick

 

[stfan]

If you don't think any club would pay a first rounder for him you don't know what you are talking about (remember Deledio went for a first rounder, Gibbs for 2 first rounders, Chris Yarran for a first, Weller for Pick 2, etc etc.

So in how many of those trades do you think that the club won out?

I think that the clubs who got the picks would all be very happy and the clubs that got the players would be thinking that the trade was not good for them.

GWS probably do not care as they have had picks and players to burn.

I do understand why the Hawks would want to be in that category. I just do that think that they will be.

 

[HolyWars]

Based on this year's form and those players age, no club would.

So who is floating that?

Gunston is 27.

He would get a first rounder for sure.

 

[matey]

Yeah true, Hawthorn struggle town ain't, amazing to be gifted a new home base by a rich fan- flight centre guy wasn't it? In same boat as Dees/Bombers there, grass roots and raffles not req.

So Existential is a bit strong, but they have had some stinker crowds even recently - Carlton Hawks ? is this what they are worried about?

It’s ok this still won’t warrant a truckload of chicken s##t being dumped at headquarters or 000’s of membership cards nuked in microwaves like at other pathetic clubs which have done little over the last 40 years!

 

[Caj]

Gunston?

Scrimshaw

 

[Guardian Hawk]

So in how many of those trades do you think that the club won out?

I think that the clubs who got the picks would all be very happy and the clubs that got the players would be thinking that the trade was not good for them.

GWS probably do not care as they have had picks and players to burn.

I do understand why the Hawks would want to be in that category. I just do that think that they will be.

Perhaps you just massively overrate first round draft picks. You would be lucky to have 1 in 5 picks in the teens offer more than what Breust would for the remainder of his career. Very lucky.

I mean you do realise that only 5 st Kilda players EVER have kicked more goals than Breust has right now (and Breust has plenty of years ahead).

 

[Luv_our_club]

Sorry I should clarify my comment, it was in relation to Scully being the equivalent of a number 1 pick, something he clearly never lived up to.

On paper, the trade for the Hawks was a good one as the only real cost to them is the $500k in salary cap for the next three years. Assuming he can stay on the park for the duration of the contract, then its a win for the Hawks paying slightly overs in salary for an average to slightly better than average winger

If Scully has improvement in him then that is a huge bonus for us, considering he has been clearly best 22 all year. Salary cap is not a problem for us.

I agree he is an average winger, but how many teams have good wingers? Not many. Most teams would take him and play him. There are probably 10 good wingers in the whole comp.

And Scully, in form, is a very good player.

 

[Timo pez]

That’s simply not true. Despite Scrimshaw having an injury plagued season he is still averaging more contested possessions and contested marks than Burton.

I can tell you right now having seen him play live numerous times that Scrimshaw isn’t soft. Sure he is inconsistent but when it’s his turn to go he’ll go.

If he was labelled as soft, I think this year in what he's played he's gone about addressing that

 

[Luv_our_club]

GWS need another small forward. They have for years. They should have taken Poppy 2 years ago. They can't score from F50 stoppages or F50 turnovers. They should be hounding Hawthorn for Bruest.

Gunston, Bruest and Smith all go first round picks for teams wanting to win the flag... if they are smart.