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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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Coniglio is an excellent player, if he wants to join Hawthorn and GWS don't force a trade they have rocks in their heads.

Worth noting that Coniglio played the 2018 SF with Whitfield, Taranto, Deledio, Griffen, Ward, Shiel in the middle and had Cameron and Lobb to kick to and they still didn't win. One can man can only do so much.
 
Pessimistic said:
25 year olds playing 23.5 year olds?
Click to expand...

Skeptics abound. This table silences most.

Age diffPWLDWin %
< +0.54891248923574551.35
+0.5 to +14165229718264255.65
+1 to +1.52892169911593459.34
+1.5 to +2183011546571963.58
+2 to +2.59936603221167.02
+2.5 to +3486339143470.16
> +331224762379.65

In short, teams older than the opposition by 1.5+ years win 67% of the time. Losing half a dozen such matches in a season from this position is significant.
 
From 2008 to 2016 teams with highest average list ages did better overall than teams with youngest average list ages in the periods 3-7 years into the future in every single year. 717399

717398
 
Ron The Bear said:
Three things were implied

- Hawthorn's recent record is typical of a club going over the cliff

- there are exceptions to the general rule

- two of those exceptions (1975 and 2017) are themselves exceptions - West Coast through the temporary acquisitions of Mitchell & Petrie and subsequent retirement of Priddis which changed their midfield style, and North 1975 where Wade, Davis and Rantall were briefly acquired via the ten-year rule. North 1997 appears a reasonable comparison to current-day Hawthorn, ladder position aside.

YearClubLosses 1.5+LadderAvg Age+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
2019Ha611th*26.43*
2017WC86th26.771st2nd*
2016NM88th27.6315th9th14th*
2012St69th26.3516th18th14th9th11th16th13th*
2005PA76th26.8212th2nd13th10th10th16th14th6th
2003Br71st26.302nd11th13th10th10th6th13th15th
2000WB78th25.7410th12th16th14th9th6th13th3rd
1997Ca911th25.9311th2nd3rd6th16th15th11th16th
1997Me716th25.574th14th2nd11th6th14th7th8th
1997NM64th25.732nd1st4th13th8th10th10th7th
1996Ha88th26.4215th13th9th6th4th10th9th15th
1990Br914th25.5815th14th13th12th8th3rd8th16th
1990Sy913th25.8812th15th15th15th12th2nd8th5th
1989Br910th26.3214th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th
1989Sy77th26.4613th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th
1988Br813th26.0910th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd
1988Sy67th26.177th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd
1983Ri710th26.188th8th10th14th10th14th11th13th
1975NM91st25.642nd1st2nd3rd5th8th4th3rd
1966NM67th24.848th12th8th12th9th12th6th2nd
1946Fi98th27.473rd7th7th5th5th3rd6th11th
1945St612th26.3911th12th12th11th9th10th12th9th
1934NM812th26.2812th11th12th9th9th12th9th9th
1925Ha712th26.3811th12th12th10th10th11th12th11th
1925WB711th26.6810th10th7th9th11th5th7th7th
1908Ge610th25.599th5th6th4th5th4th9thDNP

Such teams finishing below 6th were less able to weather the storm in the short term.
Click to expand...

How does it go when the number of losses is dropped to 5?

anyway, by decade, your list
dc list
00 1
10 -
20 2
30 1
40 2
50 -
60 1
70 1
80 5
90 6
00 3

would there be a higher incidence of games where one team is 1.5+ years older than the opponent in recent decades?
We know the 'rebuilding' rhetoric has occurred more in recent decades - since the nineties
 
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Vindicater said:
One of the best midfielders in the competetion.

Not the dynamic flashy kind like Dangerfield, Fyfe or Martin who can turn games with 15 minutes of brilliance but rarely beaten and always one of the best players on the field.

Make no mistakes, if he signs with you and GWS don't match and force a trade you will be much better next year with him and Mitchell returning.
Click to expand...

So he has a defensive side? It may take mitch a while to get back up to speed, if at all. Luckily there be plenty of rest time from an overflowing midfield
 
Ron The Bear said:
Three things were implied

- Hawthorn's recent record is typical of a club going over the cliff

- there are exceptions to the general rule

- two of those exceptions (1975 and 2017) are themselves exceptions - West Coast through the temporary acquisitions of Mitchell & Petrie and subsequent retirement of Priddis which changed their midfield style, and North 1975 where Wade, Davis and Rantall were briefly acquired via the ten-year rule. North 1997 appears a reasonable comparison to current-day Hawthorn, ladder position aside.

YearClubLosses 1.5+LadderAvg Age+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
2019Ha611th*26.43*
2017WC86th26.771st2nd*
2016NM88th27.6315th9th14th*
2012St69th26.3516th18th14th9th11th16th13th*
2005PA76th26.8212th2nd13th10th10th16th14th6th
2003Br71st26.302nd11th13th10th10th6th13th15th
2000WB78th25.7410th12th16th14th9th6th13th3rd
1997Ca911th25.9311th2nd3rd6th16th15th11th16th
1997Me716th25.574th14th2nd11th6th14th7th8th
1997NM64th25.732nd1st4th13th8th10th10th7th
1996Ha88th26.4215th13th9th6th4th10th9th15th
1990Br914th25.5815th14th13th12th8th3rd8th16th
1990Sy913th25.8812th15th15th15th12th2nd8th5th
1989Br910th26.3214th15th14th13th12th8th3rd8th
1989Sy77th26.4613th12th15th15th15th12th2nd8th
1988Br813th26.0910th14th15th14th13th12th8th3rd
1988Sy67th26.177th13th12th15th15th15th12th2nd
1983Ri710th26.188th8th10th14th10th14th11th13th
1975NM91st25.642nd1st2nd3rd5th8th4th3rd
1966NM67th24.848th12th8th12th9th12th6th2nd
1946Fi98th27.473rd7th7th5th5th3rd6th11th
1945St612th26.3911th12th12th11th9th10th12th9th
1934NM812th26.2812th11th12th9th9th12th9th9th
1925Ha712th26.3811th12th12th10th10th11th12th11th
1925WB711th26.6810th10th7th9th11th5th7th7th
1908Ge610th25.599th5th6th4th5th4th9thDNP

Such teams finishing below 6th were less able to weather the storm in the short term.
Click to expand...

Great post.

Hawthorn is an also ran and have been since 2015. That said I really do think that they are trying to rebuild in a less then conventional way.

Look at the way they have rebooted the midfield (and I do think we are in an era where midfield influencers the game more then ever).

Hawthorn missed out on Shiel (replaced with Wingard) and completely bombed with Lynch.

Next two years are crunch time with Cognilio, Whitfield and Brad Hill (possibly).

Land two of those and the paradigm completely shifts in my opinion.

I think free agency has changed the game, not just for RFA and DFA but forcing early trades and salary dumping during trade week.

The traditional draft, trade and swap model of mid 1990s onwards has been transformed.

Even the tigers, who hunted the drafts during the back end of the 2000’s are embracing (and could possibly continue to) embrace Free Agency and mature aged drafting as a way to window dress and extend the era.

Ultimately we won’t know whether it is successful or not until it actually happens but I really wouldn’t want to be a bottom feeding club (ala Blues, Suns, Saints, Power, Dockers, North and perhaps even the Dees) who seem to bounce around the middle and bottom rungs of the ladder, show some promise and slide again.

Interesting these clubs are the ones that stocked up and valued draft picks over established talent
 
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stfan said:
How come you have the injury ins, but not the outs? ie Impey with his ACL

Cogs is not yet acquired and if he chooses the Hawks and if GWS then match any Hawks offer then then Hawks will have to trade and then there goes the Top 10 pick plus more.
Click to expand...
Given that it is 8 months until the start of next season, there is a chance he could play early next season
 
Pessimistic said:
How does it go when the number of losses is dropped to 5?
Click to expand...

There are 25 of those. The pattern of decline is similar. Teams which defied it are 1984 Carlton (with its interstate spend-up to win in 1987), 1990 Hawthorn and a couple of others in the very early 1900's (1904 Carlton among them who went 3rd-1st-1st-1st-2nd-2nd-4th-3rd). In the last hundred years, only the 2010 Bulldogs were successful in seasons +4 to +8.
 
Furn2 said:
From 2008 to 2016 teams with highest average list ages did better overall than teams with youngest average list ages in the periods 3-7 years into the future in every single year. View attachment 717399

View attachment 717398
Click to expand...

Furn can you explain this a little more? Are you saying that the oldest teams now, are on average likely to outperform the youngest teams now - not only now, but for the next 7 years?
 
Hawkk said:
Interesting these clubs are the ones that stocked up and valued draft picks over established talent
Click to expand...
The backbone of Hawthorn's great sides was built through the draft. Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Franklin and Roughead were all draftees NOT established talent.

West Coast, Richmond and the Dogs further examples of primarily draft-built premiers.
 
Hawkk said:
Great post.

Hawthorn is an also ran and have been since 2015. That said I really do think that they are trying to rebuild in a less then conventional way.
Click to expand...

Geelong has largely subverted the traditional boom-bust cycle by missing the finals just once (2015, 10th) since winning with a very old team in 2011. They have provided a template for other clubs to follow, if they can. The Cats have expertly introduced younger players and developed enough quality to stay in the top half, even if finals success has largely eluded them.

While the Hawks are not exactly copying Geelong, they're attempting something similar. I reckon it's hanging together by a thread, through Clarkson.
 

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Ron The Bear said:
There are 25 of those. The pattern of decline is similar. Teams which defied it are 1984 Carlton (with its interstate spend-up to win in 1987), 1990 Hawthorn and a couple of others in the very early 1900's (1904 Carlton among them who went 3rd-1st-1st-1st-2nd-2nd-4th-3rd). In the last hundred years, only the 2010 Bulldogs were successful in seasons +4 to +8.
Click to expand...
I mentioned it cos I thought hawks may have had 5 such losses in 2015

Theres also a few cases of multi premiership teams eg melbourne (60+) collingwood (colliwobbles) hawthorn (18y) richmond (30 y) struggling to get going for significant periods after that - as well as those in your list
 
its free real estate said:
The backbone of Hawthorn's great sides was built through the draft. Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Franklin and Roughead were all draftees NOT established talent.

West Coast, Richmond and the Dogs further examples of primarily draft-built premiers.
Click to expand...

Mitchell (mid range 2nd rounder) and Hodge were only recruited in a season where hawthorn missed the grand final by a kick and traded with a club known for historically terrible trading.

Do you know which club that was?

As for Lewis, Franklin and Roughead I take your point but for every 2004 there is a Xavier Ellis, Beau Muston, Beau Dowler and Mitch Thorp

It is very hit and miss, the 2008 premiership (Hawthorn’s best finals series in the modern era) was won on the back of drafting talent but the 2013 and especially the reliance in 2014 and 2015 was much less so.

I really think the game has changed, I have doubts hawthorn can pull it off but I do think it is possible for a strong club, somewhere to reboot through RFA / DFA and draft pooling for mature players
 
Simon_Nesbit said:
Furn can you explain this a little more? Are you saying that the oldest teams now, are on average likely to outperform the youngest teams now - not only now, but for the next 7 years?
Click to expand...

Yep, thats pretty much it.

I took the 3 and 6 oldest and youngest teams and looked where they finished on average in the future 3-7 years. The older teams do way better now and do come back to younger teams in the future but they still outperform them in the future as well.

It goes against everything we're told in the media, but it's there clear as day. Being young doesn't mean you're necessarily going to improve and being old doesn't necessarily mean you're going to drop off.
 
Ron The Bear said:
Geelong has largely subverted the traditional boom-bust cycle by missing the finals just once (2015, 10th) since winning with a very old team in 2011. They have provided a template for other clubs to follow, if they can. The Cats have expertly introduced younger players and developed enough quality to stay in the top half, even if finals success has largely eluded them.

While the Hawks are not exactly copying Geelong, they're attempting something similar.
Click to expand...
Still yet to see the twilight of their 2006 draft haul, as well as Taylor the year after. Ablett, Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor and Dangerfield are all 29+, all extremely important for Geelong's success.
 
its free real estate said:
The backbone of Hawthorn's great sides was built through the draft. Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Franklin and Roughead were all draftees NOT established talent.

West Coast, Richmond and the Dogs further examples of primarily draft-built premiers.
Click to expand...

Yep, been also mentioned many times Hawks traded for the picks for Hodge and Lewis, and no one wanted mitchell. In hindsight the hawks keep thinking they could have got montagne if they held their nerve (shame about elstone)

Bigfooty was not kind to Hawthorn when they drafted Buddy and Rough, Shame the hawks admin didnt follow bigfooty advice ey?

Also while they are trying their best, assembling a threepeat side would be a stretch - but then where are the other clubs being held to such a task? premierships are hard to win, even one.
 
Hawkk said:
Even the tigers, who hunted the drafts during the back end of the 2000’s are embracing (and could possibly continue to) embrace Free Agency and mature aged drafting as a way to window dress and extend the era.
Click to expand...

Do you honestly believe that Lynch would have chosen the Tigers if they had not just have won a flag and had a list that looked like it would stay together for a while and thus allow have a good chance to win a flag or two?

I strongly suspect the Tigers would have approached other high-end FA's in earlier years and received little interest.

The Hawks model that a number seem to be proposing is that as long as a number of high quality players choose the Hawks when they become FAs in consecutive years that you can then become a contender again. Maybe Lynch found that unpalatable?

Without Free Agency the Hawks would be well and truly cooked, and even with it clubs are working it better these days so that less players become FA's(particularly UFA's) and as a slider the Hawks are already not as attractive to Free Agents as they once were.
 

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its free real estate said:
Still yet to see the twilight of their 2006 draft haul, as well as Taylor the year after. Ablett, Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor and Dangerfield are all 29+, all extremely important for Geelong's success.
Click to expand...

They've moved on significantly more than that already
 
Hawkk said:
Mitchell (mid range 2nd rounder) and Hodge were only recruited in a season where hawthorn missed the grand final by a kick and traded with a club known for historically terrible trading.

Do you know which club that was?
Click to expand...
I do, but it doesn't change anything. They weren't established talent. You traded out two highly rated key position players to have a shot at the greatest draft of all time. A lot of balls in that move.

As for Lewis, Franklin and Roughead I take your point but for every 2004 there is a Xavier Ellis, Beau Muston, Beau Dowler and Mitch Thorp

It is very hit and miss, the 2008 premiership (Hawthorn’s best finals series in the modern era) was won on the back of drafting talent but the 2013 and especially the reliance in 2014 and 2015 was much less so.

I really think the game has changed, I have doubts hawthorn can pull it off but I do think it is possible for a strong club, somewhere to reboot through RFA / DFA and draft pooling for mature players
Click to expand...
I forgot Rioli as well. Ellis was good in 2008 too.

Point is Hawthorn were excellent at drafting to the point they could afford a few minor hiccups. Same with Richmond who could afford blowing it with Vickery / Griffths. Rance, Riewdolt, Cotchin and Martin turned out an elite set, covering each area.

I don't think you can say the draft is being supplanted by free agency, if anything the draft is stronger than ever, free agency simply allows clubs who have drafted well to more quickly round off their list. But you're not getting anywhere if you don't draft well.
 
We are now in a fourth successive year of very even competition.

has that ever happened before?

having said that a win to richmond or eagles would blow that theory
 
Lyons aside, clubs are wising up to donating good players. Saints would love a McEvoy right now, and although they took a targetted tradeout and draft strategy, they are firmly in RonBears list of shame.

Thsi would be the hawks biggest problem with their approach, which, it has to be said, has come about because of neccesity rather than choice
 
Pessimistic said:
I mentioned it cos I thought hawks may have had 5 such losses in 2015

Theres also a few cases of multi premiership teams eg melbourne (60+) collingwood (colliwobbles) hawthorn (18y) richmond (30 y) struggling to get going for significant periods after that - as well as those in your list
Click to expand...

Four.

Richmond post-1982 is one of the best examples, though there were other important factors at play besides an old list. Clubs enter the wilderness (and stay there) for all sorts of reasons; I'm only focusing on one that's measurable.

As a well-run and resourceful club, Hawthorn may be able to buck the omens, but they're up against it. They've already lost several people who oversaw the current successful era and if Clarko was to jump ship, it would be difficult to avoid a traditional rebuild (as Clarkson himself employed in the beginning).
 
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