Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

IN
Mitchell
Coniglio
Patton
Scrimshaw
Top 10 draft pick


OUT
Roughead
Puopolo
Birchall
Smith

The ins are better than the outs!

If Coniglio and Patton do decide to move to the Hawks, where do you think the top ten draft pick will come from?

I have little doubt that we would match any offer for Coniglio and force a trade, likely at a very high price.

 

[stfan]

Saints would love a McEvoy right now,

No.

If you had of said that last year I might of agreed, but Marshall on current form is the No 3 Ruck in the competition and is improving literally every game. Young and with only 29 games, only 16 of which were as No1 ruck (and he virtually never played there at Sandringham as he was mainly playing forward or back with only the occassional chop out in the ruck).

So no need for players like Big Ben etc. We only need a back up ruck or two to play at Sandringham in case he gets injured/suspended and perhaps a forward/ruck like Mabior Chol.

 

[stfan]

Given that it is 8 months until the start of next season, there is a chance he could play early next season

Given that players who have broken legs often take a season or two to get back to their best (and in some cases never do) there is a chance that Mitchell may not have much impact in 2020 too.

Also with Patton how he will go is the great unknown. History has not been kind to players who have 3 ACLs.


I think it is more reasonable to be even in how you assess each side of the ledger, whether that be optimistic or pessimistic or more en handed.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Still yet to see the twilight of their 2006 draft haul, as well as Taylor the year after. Ablett, Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor and Dangerfield are all 29+, all extremely important for Geelong's success.

Sure, but they've lost many very good/great players already. Their development is excellent and many discarded players find homes elsewhere.

 

[Pessimistic]

Four.

Richmond post-1982 is one of the best examples, though there were other important factors at play besides an old list. Clubs enter the wilderness (and stay there) for all sorts of reasons; I'm only focusing on one that's measurable.

As a well-run and resourceful club, Hawthorn may be able to buck the omens, but they're up against it. They've already lost several people who oversaw the current successful era and if Clarko was to jump ship, it would be difficult to avoid a traditional rebuild (as Clarkson himself employed in the beginning).

Hawks high tide seems to come every seven years, 01 08 15. next one is 2022. even if the 'high water mark' falls short of a flag, the rebuild from then on will still have a handy 8-10 players to build around

 

[Hawkk]

If Coniglio and Patton do decide to move to the Hawks, where do you think the top ten draft pick will come from?

I have little doubt that we would match any offer for Coniglio and force a trade, likely at a very high price.

True

I think the presumption is that the giants would get a better pick then what hawthorn can trade and / or that Hawthorn would draft Patton purely as a salary dump to build up a war chest to protect Whitfield and Cameron

But there are plenty of variables in that scenario

 

[Vindicater]

So he has a defensive side? It may take mitch a while to get back up to speed, if at all. Luckily there be plenty of rest time from an overflowing midfield

Yep. Will run both ways.

 

[MrPremiership]

If Coniglio and Patton do decide to move to the Hawks, where do you think the top ten draft pick will come from?

I have little doubt that we would match any offer for Coniglio and force a trade, likely at a very high price.

GWS have already said they won't match a bid for Coniglio

Patton is a future 3rd round pick.

 

[Pessimistic]

No.

If you had of said that last year I might of agreed, but Marshall on current form is the No 3 Ruck in the competition and is improving literally every game. Young and with only 29 games, only 16 of which were as No1 ruck (and he virtually never played there at Sandringham as he was mainly playing forward or back with only the occassional chop out in the ruck).

So no need for players like Big Ben etc. We only need a back up ruck or two to play at Sandringham in case he gets injured/suspended and perhaps a forward/ruck like Mabior Chol.

Given that players who have broken legs often take a season or two to get back to their best (and in some cases never do) there is a chance that Mitchell may not have much impact in 2020 too.

Also with Patton how he will go is the great unknown. History has not been kind to players who have 3 ACLs.


I think it is more reasonable to be even in how you assess each side of the ledger, whether that be optimistic or pessimistic or more en handed.

Like you say, depends if you are pessimistic or optimistic

Hawks recruit two players with no significant career injuries, and four who have had significant injuries.
The first two suffer significant injuries, after stellar seasons. The others not so much

 

[Ron The Bear]

Hawks high tide seems to come every seven years, 01 08 15. next one is 2022. even if the 'high water mark' falls short of a flag, the rebuild from then on will still have a handy 8-10 players to build around

Maybe. The '08 team was precociously talented, which helped to make Clarkson as a coach. The same quality is not evident at the bottom of the current list, yet.

 

[QuietB]

so even though the hawks are a middle of the road side, players are going to leave , and play at a discount, for the privilege?

Just like Shiels and Lynch right?

I have no idea what you are talking about?

 

[QuietB]

If Coniglio and Patton do decide to move to the Hawks, where do you think the top ten draft pick will come from?

I have little doubt that we would match any offer for Coniglio and force a trade, likely at a very high price.

There is the small matter that GWS are under massive salary cap pressure

 

[WWSD]

If Coniglio and Patton do decide to move to the Hawks, where do you think the top ten draft pick will come from?

I have little doubt that we would match any offer for Coniglio and force a trade, likely at a very high price.

Whatever gets the job done. I don’t think Hawthorn would have any hesitation in trading out that first round pick and more if it means getting Coniglio.

 

[Pessimistic]

Whatever gets the job done. I don’t think Hawthorn would have any hesitation in trading out that first round pick and more if it means getting Coniglio.

Just delay while they do some late pick swaps to help the other trading. You scratch my back....

 

[Hawkk]

Maybe. The '08 team was precociously talented, which helped to make Clarkson as a coach. The same quality is not evident at the bottom of the current list, yet.

Pretty much this...

Posters often say that experience rises to the top in finals but I think raw and talented young team excel under finals intensity.

Hawthorn have been exposed in 2016 and 2018 on the back of a talent gap which that can be managed in the regular season with excellent structures and coaching but is completely exposed in finals.

I guess 2008 was the opposite to 2018.

Geelong is another which could be exposed by a rampaging Lions team should they meet each other in a final

 

[Pessimistic]

Maybe. The '08 team was precociously talented, which helped to make Clarkson as a coach. The same quality is not evident at the bottom of the current list, yet.

Three more trading and drafting periods ? comfortably. I'm hoping for better

Our list was unbalanced after 17 guys each won 3 premierships. 15-18 trading was to rectify that , as the cats did in 11-15. Going forward is about strengthening on top of the bare bones

 

[Hawkk]

Three more trading and drafting periods ? comfortably. I'm hoping for better

Need to jag another two to get to 15 VFL/AFL flags by the 2025 centenary to keep things nice and neat...

 

[Scotland]

RE: 2008 above, Franklin and Roughead kicked 188 goals between them that year. Nailing two early picks is one thing, getting career best output out of two key forwards turning 21 4-5 years ahead of when you'd expect them to peak is just nuts.

Roughead's 75 awould have won the Coleman medal 6 times since, including the time that he did win it kicking fewer. Both reverted to more of a norm after that but it was amazing to get so much output in this era from two players yet to reach their peak. I think Kennedy and Darling have combined for 120/130, Walker and Jenkins about 110, Brown and Bradshaw about 140/150, Lloyd and Lucas about 160 going back a bit, Gehrig and Riewoldt 170 the year big Frase kicked the ton.

Unless there's another evolution in footy that suddenly makes it high scoring again I don't think we'll see a key forward duo kick 188 goals again. I'm pretty confident we won't ever see it again from two 21 year olds. You could pair any two key forwards in their prime today and if you got 150 goals you would be stoked.

 

[QuietB]

RE: 2008 above, Franklin and Roughead kicked 188 goals between them that year. Nailing two early picks is one thing, getting career best output out of two key forwards turning 21 4-5 years ahead of when you'd expect them to peak is just nuts.

Roughead's 75 awould have won the Coleman medal 6 times since, including the time that he did win it kicking fewer. Both reverted to more of a norm after that but it was amazing to get so much output in this era from two players yet to reach their peak. I think Kennedy and Darling have combined for 120/130, Walker and Jenkins about 110, Brown and Bradshaw about 140/150, Lloyd and Lucas about 160 going back a bit, Gehrig and Riewoldt 170 the year big Frase kicked the ton.

Unless there's another evolution in footy that suddenly makes it high scoring again I don't think we'll see a key forward duo kick 188 goals again. I'm pretty confident we won't ever see it again from two 21 year olds. You could pair any two key forwards in their prime today and if you got 150 goals you would be stoked.

Shotgun Williams kicked 46 goals that year as well. Good times

 

[its free real estate]

RE: 2008 above, Franklin and Roughead kicked 188 goals between them that year. Nailing two early picks is one thing, getting career best output out of two key forwards turning 21 4-5 years ahead of when you'd expect them to peak is just nuts.

Roughead's 75 awould have won the Coleman medal 6 times since, including the time that he did win it kicking fewer. Both reverted to more of a norm after that but it was amazing to get so much output in this era from two players yet to reach their peak. I think Kennedy and Darling have combined for 120/130, Walker and Jenkins about 110, Brown and Bradshaw about 140/150, Lloyd and Lucas about 160 going back a bit, Gehrig and Riewoldt 170 the year big Frase kicked the ton.

Unless there's another evolution in footy that suddenly makes it high scoring again I don't think we'll see a key forward duo kick 188 goals again. I'm pretty confident we won't ever see it again from two 21 year olds. You could pair any two key forwards in their prime today and if you got 150 goals you would be stoked.

In an era of declining scores and the diminishing output of key forwards, that really was an outlier. I wonder what caused it.

 

[Scotland]

Shotgun Williams kicked 46 goals that year as well. Good times

An excellent and almost forgotten season. I don't think most (neutral) footy fans would know that he was the leading goalkicker in the 2008 GF. But everyone remembers Stuart Dew kicking two in 5 minutes. Shame he (Williams) was never really fit after the age of about 25/26. Mark LeCras followed a similar timeline. High output small forward that readjusted to a half forward role that was more beneficial to the team.

 

[QuietB]

In an era of declining scores and the diminishing output of key forwards, that really was an outlier. I wonder what caused it.

Clarko put a stop to it - he controls everything

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Without Free Agency the Hawks would be well and truly cooked, and even with it clubs are working it better these days so that less players become FA's(particularly UFA's) and as a slider the Hawks are already not as attractive to Free Agents as they once were.

Without Free Agency, Hawthorn keeps Franklin, Young, Ellis, Suckling, Brown, Murphy. Essentially Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis too.

They don't get Frawley though.

Free Agency has hurt Hawthorn more than any other club. If you believe otherwise, perhaps you listen to "Jonno Brown".

 

[Scotland]

In an era of declining scores and the diminishing output of key forwards, that really was an outlier. I wonder what caused it.

Not sure, sometimes stars just align. Hard not to get excited about a forward having 200 shots at goal in a year when the alternative is watching teams fumble to 8.13 vs 6.9.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Yep, thats pretty much it.

I took the 3 and 6 oldest and youngest teams and looked where they finished on average in the future 3-7 years. The older teams do way better now and do come back to younger teams in the future but they still outperform them in the future as well.

It goes against everything we're told in the media, but it's there clear as day. Being young doesn't mean you're necessarily going to improve and being old doesn't necessarily mean you're going to drop off.

We know there's a strong positive correlation between comparable age and success in the current season, but your data suggests it holds true for future seasons too.

I'd love to see some more analysis of the effect of a mature list on future performance. By +7 years, those players that initially created the 'mature' list are already retired too!