Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[tonygeeks]

I don't think I'll be losing my respect / fear of the Hawks any time soon but it is strange that they have taken this path considering how quickly a well run outfit like them could have rebounded if they did go down the rebuild path

They are so good at drafting and development if they had of cashed in their chips after 2016 for instance I have no doubt that 2-3 drafts with solid amounts of picks from moving a few good older players on that they would have a team choc full of young guns ready to start attacking another flag

Why the lack of confidence when they have done it very well before ...... strange

 

[its free real estate]

It's not so much the number of players but the ~1250 games of experience. Richmond lost 1300+ games at the end of 2009, but Hawthorn will still have nine 150-gamers to carry the day.

When you’re turning over that many players in a year, the probability of ending up with a Ben Nason approaches 1

 

[Ron The Bear]

I just think that free agency / trading / drafting / recruiting is completely different to how it was in the past. So there are more list strategies that could be undertaken

In 10-20 years time we'll better be able to evaluate the current strategies

But again Hawthorn doesn't need to actually win a premiership for the list management strategy to have been correct

You need a lot to go right in a season to win the premiership, your list management can only put you in a position to be able to win a premiership

Yeah, takes time before it can be evaluated in context. Port had the oldest premiership team since 1944, quickly re-jigged the list a year later and reached another GF in 2007. But it left them vulnerable to the point of needing to be bailed out by the AFL a few years down the track.

 

[MightyHawks]

Yeah, takes time before it can be evaluated in context. Port had the oldest premiership team since 1944, quickly re-jigged the list a year later and reached another GF in 2007. But it left them vulnerable to the point of needing to be bailed out by the AFL a few years down the track.

Something to consider is lets say in 5 years time Hawthorn are a "basket case" (whether or not they win a flag or two) - too many old players - uncompetitive and have 3 years in the bottom 4.

As long as Hawthorn can draft as well as we have been doing from the last few years - they might be able to quickly regenerate the list at that point

Remeber our strike rate with 3rd 4th and 5th rounders has been pretty good - so if the recruiters can nail the 3 top 5 selections they get then you could turn it around reasonably quickly - avoid the John Butcher type players

 

[4THAWN]

If you’re Coniglio surely you have no interest at all in going to Hawthorn. They are miles off being contenders. Go to Carlton and earn an extra 200K+ a season than what Hawks can offer. And be a genuine contender in two years.

carlton aren't going to be contending in 2 years

 

[4THAWN]

59 in effect not used as Hawks elevated a rookie at 59 (which can be done equally on any pick. So if had not traded in would have just used a later pick)

Win win deal for both clubs. Hawks still have Big Ben playing and Saints still have Savage, Dunstan and Acres playing.

Savage been a really good player for you guys

 

[4THAWN]

I don't think I'll be losing my respect / fear of the Hawks any time soon but it is strange that they have taken this path considering how quickly a well run outfit like them could have rebounded if they did go down the rebuild path

They are so good at drafting and development if they had of cashed in their chips after 2016 for instance I have no doubt that 2-3 drafts with solid amounts of picks from moving a few good older players on that they would have a team choc full of young guns ready to start attacking another flag

Why the lack of confidence when they have done it very well before ...... strange

because that's no longer the method to building a premiership team

 

[tonygeeks]

because that's no longer the method to building a premiership team

As proven by which team ?

 

[4THAWN]

That’s massive list turnover. Can’t imagine there have been too many clubs that have turned over that many players in one season and remained competitive

Roughead - retire - not best 22
Birchall - retire - barely played in 3 years
Smith - traded - probably most important player here, and even he's been out of form most of the year and is not looking like being a part of out next push for silverware.
Ceglar - traded - has been able to take lots of marks but ultimately doesn't look like the club thinks he can play as a second ruck.
Schoenmakers - retire. Not best 22 and hasn't played much footy recently.
Puopolo - retire - just not having the same impact he used to. Very little influence on games anymore. Replacements waiting.
Brand - delisted - not best 26.
Mirra - delisted - not best 26.
Minchington - delisted. Free agent that hasn't played a senior game due to injury. Not best 26.
Mohr - retire. - hasn't played a senior game due to injury. Not best 26.
Miles - delisted - hasn't played a senior game due to injury. Not best 26.

Theres quite literally 1 player(smith) who you'd say still could be an important player for Hawthorn in the future.

A few on the fence types with Cegs and Poppy, both could potentially play elsewhere if they wanted I reckon.

Then a fair few old soldiers who simply do not contribute anything meaningful on field for whatever reason. Birch, Roughy, Schoey

And finally some other recruits/draftees who have just not worked out - Mohr, Miles, Minch, Mirra, Brand

Really shouldn't have to much of an effect on Hawthorn's on-field performances missing these players, potentially off-field though.

 

[4THAWN]

As proven by which team ?

The weagles haven't had a selection above 11 in 9-10 years?

Traded in players like lewis jetta, jack redden, elliot yeo, jamie cripps while trading out their highest picks e.g. pick 6 traded out to get dom sheed at 11.

they've been able to nab good players with later picks, hutchings @ 60, mcgovern in the rookie draft, tom cole @ 36, rioli @ 52, allen @ 21 ryan @ 26 and cameron @ 39.

 

[BigFrizz36]

We won a flag in 16...

Our list is better than yours. Put a poll up on the main page between hawks and the dogs hell even carlton and see who neutrals would choose going forward. Guarantee it wouldn't be the hawks. You arent the same team without the past champions of the club

There's no discussion is there. At this point of time the dogs list is substantially better than the hawks list. Marginally better today and significantly better for the future.

 

[Hawk Dork]

There's no discussion is there. At this point of time the dogs list is substantially better than the hawks list. Marginally better today and significantly better for the future.

Will be interesting to see who wins a GF first
I reckon it will be the Hawks

 

[tonygeeks]

The weagles haven't had a selection above 11 in 9-10 years?

Traded in players like lewis jetta, jack redden, elliot yeo, jamie cripps while trading out their highest picks e.g. pick 6 traded out to get dom sheed at 11.

they've been able to nab good players with later picks, hutchings @ 60, mcgovern in the rookie draft, tom cole @ 36, rioli @ 52, allen @ 21 ryan @ 26 and cameron @ 39.

Would've thought they did that AFTER they had the bones of the team in place via the draft

 

[Cadillac]

On the verge. Like Melbourne you mean?

On the verge of Melbourne . Comparing a midfield group won a flag as 20 year olds with Melbourne. Have a day off mate.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

On the verge of Melbourne . Comparing a midfield group won a flag as 20 year olds with Melbourne. Have a day off mate.

Carlton won a flag? You said Carlton were on the verge and he responded ‘like Melbourne’

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Roughead - retire - not best 22
Birchall - retire - barely played in 3 years
Smith - traded - probably most important player here, and even he's been out of form most of the year and is not looking like being a part of out next push for silverware.
Ceglar - traded - has been able to take lots of marks but ultimately doesn't look like the club thinks he can play as a second ruck.
Schoenmakers - retire. Not best 22 and hasn't played much footy recently.
Puopolo - retire - just not having the same impact he used to. Very little influence on games anymore. Replacements waiting.
Brand - delisted - not best 26.
Mirra - delisted - not best 26.
Minchington - delisted. Free agent that hasn't played a senior game due to injury. Not best 26.
Mohr - retire. - hasn't played a senior game due to injury. Not best 26.
Miles - delisted - hasn't played a senior game due to injury. Not best 26.

Theres quite literally 1 player(smith) who you'd say still could be an important player for Hawthorn in the future.

A few on the fence types with Cegs and Poppy, both could potentially play elsewhere if they wanted I reckon.

Then a fair few old soldiers who simply do not contribute anything meaningful on field for whatever reason. Birch, Roughy, Schoey

And finally some other recruits/draftees who have just not worked out - Mohr, Miles, Minch, Mirra, Brand

Really shouldn't have to much of an effect on Hawthorn's on-field performances missing these players, potentially off-field though.

Geezus mate, we won't be cutting that much experience/depth from the list in one go. We'd be as shit as Carlton have been in recent memory if we remove all of those players. A third of the players who you have listed will probably be kept around as depth.

Ceglar is a FA too btw. Won't be traded unless his new club wishes to not impact any other compo.

 

[parsons nose]

On the verge of Melbourne . Comparing a midfield group won a flag as 20 year olds with Melbourne. Have a day off mate.

Think you may need to revisit your earlier post mate. You’ve managed to confuse yourself.

 

[FairKouta]

Apart from clarko usually sticking to his word, dont you think he would see carlton as a bit if a rabble? A coach killer?

Weren't you a rabble before he showed up ?

 

[parsons nose]

Plenty of little old ladies they can extort money out of through their pokies operation.

Extort you say?

 

[parsons nose]

Hawks got outplayed by a crap team and a first time coach.

Future not looking too bright.

Sack Worsfold?

 

[Pessimistic]

I don't think I'll be losing my respect / fear of the Hawks any time soon but it is strange that they have taken this path considering how quickly a well run outfit like them could have rebounded if they did go down the rebuild path

They are so good at drafting and development if they had of cashed in their chips after 2016 for instance I have no doubt that 2-3 drafts with solid amounts of picks from moving a few good older players on that they would have a team choc full of young guns ready to start attacking another flag

Why the lack of confidence when they have done it very well before ...... strange

Er..thats exactly what they did. Hale lake mitchell lewis hodge gibson have moved on and hill suckling duryea rioli sadly wanted to move on
Trade ins have been mitchell omeara impey scrimshaw scully wingard and surprise package henderson at the same time as draftees sicily hardwick howe obrien lewis worpel have commanded spots and morrison nash glass hanrahan cousins to a lesser extent.

Just because imminent retirements present a fair challenge it doesnt diminish the changes which have occurred.

 

[Pessimistic]

Weren't you a rabble before he showed up ?

Yes bu with an ear open to changes. Behind clarko the coach theres clarko who transformed the organization.
Who incidentally was filthy on CEO Robson who bailed early

Carltons demeanour just dont strike me as an outfit open to change

Carlton who threw a wobbly cos clarko denied Fev his 100 goals never mind they were a sorry club who’d just been smashed by the hawks

 

[FairKouta]

Yes bu with an ear open to changes. Behind clarko the coach theres clarko who transformed the organization.
Who incidentally was filthy on CEO Robson who bailed early

Carltons demeanour just dont strike me as an outfit open to change

Sure

 

[Pessimistic]

Sure

So you have no idea what Im talking about?

Lets just be clear, you are the one having fantasies

 

[Firestarter]

I've got a felucca to sell some folks...