Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Niggles]

It is doable. The leading pack are nowhere near as dominant as the Geelong or Hawthorn premiership teams.

It is only a small step for anyone in the middle of the table to catch up.

Keep telling yourself that. You probably even believe it too. Hawthorn were very lucky as they won theirs against interstate clubs. Similar to Richmond yet ours weren't during the compromised drafts with heaps of weaker teams. I also recall Richmond beating Hawthorn many times during their so called dominant era. And we were shit. Did Hawthorn ever finish on top even? Delusional.

 

[QuietB]

Keep telling yourself that. You probably even believe it too. Hawthorn were very lucky as they won theirs against interstate clubs. Similar to Richmond yet ours weren't during the compromised drafts with heaps of weaker teams. I also recall Richmond beating Hawthorn many times during their so called dominant era. And we were shit. Did Hawthorn ever finish on top even? Delusional.

Numbers don't lie. Over their premiership years;

Season Percentage (average);

Geelong - 145.9
Hawthorn - 145.0
Richmond - 116.0

Season total score (average - excludes finals);

Geelong - 2467
Hawthorn - 2478
Richmond - 1942

There is a substantial gulf. Cats and Hawks are almost the same and then a massive gap to Richmond.

 

[blaisee]

Keeping the supporters engaged and hopeful is THE job of a footy club.

Without it clubs are screwed, especially Hawthorn.

Good on the hawks fans in staying positive.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Keep telling yourself that. You probably even believe it too. Hawthorn were very lucky as they won theirs against interstate clubs. Similar to Richmond yet ours weren't during the compromised drafts with heaps of weaker teams. I also recall Richmond beating Hawthorn many times during their so called dominant era. And we were shit. Did Hawthorn ever finish on top even? Delusional.

Last year Hawks were 4th. You would not find a single supporter who thought our 2018 side was even remotely competitive with the 2011-2016 versions. Cats finished 1st (?) at end of H&A. I'm absolutely certain there would be a similar story there compared to their 2007-2012 sides.

Contrary to your belief, the decade 07-16 was one that saw the most dominant sides of the professional era. The entire league is much weaker than during that period. As shown in my previous research in this thread, there is a delay of 5-8 years from draft to peak performance outcomes, so the compromised drafts (2011-2015) are only now entering their peak influence period. The peak tends to last 5-8 years also which makes perfect sense - an individual career starting at 18, peaks between 23-26 and reduces after 31.

There is no "great" side, and there are now a number of "Good" sides that can compete on their day. (This is entirely a good thing IMO, but wish it hadn't come via the sacrifice of competition integrity). Richmond are currently at the top of this tree, but have been 'lucky' to peak in a period of overall weakness. ("Luck" needed to win the premiership, talent/skill/effort/etc to be in the position to compete).

There is probably only one potentially great side (GWS) around at the moment. If not them, the next "Great" side is yet to emerge and may not for another decade once the majorly compromised drafts effect has ceased (approx 2029 onwards).

I may be under-rating Richmond, certainly if they win another couple they will prove their worth, but for mine they are still a team that got 'lucky' by coming good at the right time.

 

[Foucault1989]

He's the greatest ever young player

No strike that.
The greatest player of all known times

WORPEL

Better than Cripps, Bont, Danger, Martin, Fyfe. The best. And he was a later pick. He is the best player, at the best club with the best coach and don't say otherwise or else I'll remind you we won three premier ships in a row!

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Better than Cripps, Bont, Danger, Martin, Fyfe. The best. And he was a later pick. He is the best player, at the best club with the best coach and don't say otherwise or else I'll remind you we won three premier ships in a row!

Glad we both agree

 

[Furn2]

I'm sorry to say this but I really think Hawthorn are going to bottom out in 2020 and won't even get close to finals. Their list is quite awful at the moment.

Our first rounders next year is on the table too.

Could be a bargain for a pick in 8-10 region.

 

[parsons nose]

I think its cute how much hawks fans love Worpel

It reminds me of when I loved Nathan Foley .

This only serves to highlight how little stock we should take in your opinion. Oh and 37 years.

 

[blaisee]

This only serves to highlight how little stock we should take in your opinion. Oh and 37 years.

Does it ?

Also not sure why hawks fans are so cocky, all the great players from the flags gave retired, and none coming through due to the club trading most of their good picks and going all in to extract as much as possible from that group.

This is just the cost of those decisions. No finals wins in 4 years, next year if things go to trend it will be 5 years without finals.

Interestingly Richmond have retained their picks through our premiership years, It will be interesting to see if it stops them sliding down the ladder like Hawthorn regardless.

Its been great to watch Hawthorn deal with their decline, Geelong did something similar, but luckily for them Dangerfield walked through the door, this at least has kept them relevant, but even that didn't win them a flag, and it won't in the future either IMHO.

 

[Marcel Proust]

This only serves to highlight how little stock we should take in your opinion. Oh and 37 years.

all-star game between two representative sides


Victorian
B: Campbell Brown (Hawthorn) Matthew Scarlett (Geelong) Darren Milburn (Geelong)
HB: Heath Shaw (Collingwood) Trent Croad (Hawthorn) Jarrad Waite (Carlton)
C: Brent Harvey (North Melbourne) Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) Adam Goodes (Sydney)
HF: Ryan O'Keefe (Sydney) Jonathan Brown (Brisbane Lions) Robert Murphy (Western Bulldogs
F: Steve Johnson (Geelong) Brendan Fevola (Carlton) Daniel Bradshaw (Brisbane Lions)
Foll: Troy Simmonds (Richmond) Jimmy Bartel (Geelong) Chris Judd (Carlton)
Int: Josh Fraser (Collingwood) Luke Power (Brisbane Lions) Paul Chapman (Geelong)
James Kelly (Geelong) Nathan Foley (Richmond) Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
Joel Selwood (Geelong)
Coach: Mark Thompson (Geelong)

Dream Team
B: Graham Johncock (Adelaide) Ben Rutten (Adelaide) Craig Bolton (Sydney)
HB: Andrew McLeod (Adelaide) Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle) Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)
C: Matthew Richardson (Richmond) Daniel Kerr (West Coast) Shaun Burgoyne (Port Adelaide)
HF: Simon Goodwin (Adelaide) Cameron Mooney (Geelong) Daniel Motlop (Port Adelaide)
F: Brett Burton (Adelaide) Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) Leon Davis (Collingwood)
Foll: Dean Cox (West Coast) Peter Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) Kane Cornes (Port Adelaide)
Int: Nathan Bock (Adelaide) Jamie Charman (Brisbane Lions) Joel Corey (Geelong)
Mathew Stokes (Geelong) Brett Kirk (Sydney) Corey Enright (Geelong)
Ryan Griffen (Western Bulldogs)
Coach: Mark Williams (Port Adelaide)


Fevola 6
J Brown, Johnson, Harvey 3
O'Keefe, Murphy, C Brown, Chapman, Bradshaw, Foley 1 Goals Franklin 4
Davis 3
Motlop, Burton, Goodwin 2
Richardson, Kirk, S Burgoyne, Mooney, Stokes 1

Fevola, Foley, Pendlebury, Goodes, Harvey Best P Burgoyne, McLeod, S Burgoyne, Johncock

 

[Sonny Hayes]

all-star game between two representative sides


Victorian
B: Campbell Brown (Hawthorn) Matthew Scarlett (Geelong) Darren Milburn (Geelong)
HB: Heath Shaw (Collingwood) Trent Croad (Hawthorn) Jarrad Waite (Carlton)
C: Brent Harvey (North Melbourne) Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) Adam Goodes (Sydney)
HF: Ryan O'Keefe (Sydney) Jonathan Brown (Brisbane Lions) Robert Murphy (Western Bulldogs
F: Steve Johnson (Geelong) Brendan Fevola (Carlton) Daniel Bradshaw (Brisbane Lions)
Foll: Troy Simmonds (Richmond) Jimmy Bartel (Geelong) Chris Judd (Carlton)
Int: Josh Fraser (Collingwood) Luke Power (Brisbane Lions) Paul Chapman (Geelong)
James Kelly (Geelong) Nathan Foley (Richmond) Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
Joel Selwood (Geelong)
Coach: Mark Thompson (Geelong)

Dream Team
B: Graham Johncock (Adelaide) Ben Rutten (Adelaide) Craig Bolton (Sydney)
HB: Andrew McLeod (Adelaide) Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle) Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)
C: Matthew Richardson (Richmond) Daniel Kerr (West Coast) Shaun Burgoyne (Port Adelaide)
HF: Simon Goodwin (Adelaide) Cameron Mooney (Geelong) Daniel Motlop (Port Adelaide)
F: Brett Burton (Adelaide) Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) Leon Davis (Collingwood)
Foll: Dean Cox (West Coast) Peter Burgoyne (Port Adelaide) Kane Cornes (Port Adelaide)
Int: Nathan Bock (Adelaide) Jamie Charman (Brisbane Lions) Joel Corey (Geelong)
Mathew Stokes (Geelong) Brett Kirk (Sydney) Corey Enright (Geelong)
Ryan Griffen (Western Bulldogs)
Coach: Mark Williams (Port Adelaide)


Fevola 6
J Brown, Johnson, Harvey 3
O'Keefe, Murphy, C Brown, Chapman, Bradshaw, Foley 1 Goals Franklin 4
Davis 3
Motlop, Burton, Goodwin 2
Richardson, Kirk, S Burgoyne, Mooney, Stokes 1

Fevola, Foley, Pendlebury, Goodes, Harvey Best P Burgoyne, McLeod, S Burgoyne, Johncock

Ah... that's nice

 

[Marcel Proust]

Ah... that's nice

i certainly think so

Foley was a good player, Tom Mitchell like.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

i certainly think so

Foley was a good player, Tom Mitchell like.

I mean discount shop Tom Mitchell, sure.

 

[Pessimistic]

Keep telling yourself that. You probably even believe it too. Hawthorn were very lucky as they won theirs against interstate clubs. Similar to Richmond yet ours weren't during the compromised drafts with heaps of weaker teams. I also recall Richmond beating Hawthorn many times during their so called dominant era. And we were shit. Did Hawthorn ever finish on top even? Delusional.

Put a lid on it. a beanpole who didnt even play footy as a junior wrecked your threepeat. You do realise that?

The irony is most of this thread is telling us our current team isnt a patch on our 2008-15 team, and we need to get early picks to regain that
Now you are telling is they weren't that good anyway

 

[Marcel Proust]

I mean discount shop Tom Mitchell, sure.

Mark Coughlan > Mitchell

I was thinking more Mark Coughlan

I remember all those North and Richmond nuffies making absolute arses of themselves in the Sam Mitchell v Daniel Harris v Mark Coughlan threads

Coughlan was very good...

 

[Pessimistic]

Mark Coughlan > Mitchell

People never rated Sam Mitchell till he went to the eagles, now apparently well never replace him adequately

Funny cos tom mitchell is tracking better at this point in his career (injury aside)

 

[Marcel Proust]

People never rated Sam Mitchell till he went to the eagles,

lol yes they did

 

[threesixpio]

I'm sorry to say this but I really think Hawthorn are going to bottom out in 2020 and won't even get close to finals. Their list is quite awful at the moment.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Burgs, Lake, Gibson, Guerra, Dew, Hale, Gunston, Spanger are recycled players that have got nice necklaces to wear occasionally for the rest of their lives.

yes, but, they were the edges around the core of top draft picks

now the core is recycled players with more of them around the edges and the old heads that clarko hasnt managed to get rid of yet. the like of scully, patton, omera are indeed very talented. but they were 4th rounders for a reason, its yet to be seen how it turns out, good luck.

in other news it sounds like the hawks father/son guy in tonights draft has been 'sliding' in many peoples/experts thoughts?

 

[Pessimistic]

lol yes they did

We did. quote Wayne carey

 

[Pessimistic]

yes, but, they were the edges around the core of top draft picks

now the core is recycleced players with more of them around the edges. the like of scully, patton, omera are indeed very talented. but they were 4th rounders for a reason, its yet to be seen how it turns out

Not when drafted, isnt that the argument? and Hale Gunston Lake Gibson as trad ins and Smith Hill as recruits were essential to the threepeat

 

[threesixpio]

Defence looks good

Midfield looking much better but runners are getting a bit old. Wingard in the midfield is a bit good. Add Titch and with improvements from Worpel and I am a bit happy

Forward line and list depth the concern for me otherwise travelling along nicely

Re forwardline - that’s where I will be watching from Round One. If it starts ticking ...

 

[Jobe Watson]

You are projecting again

How is the bombers list coming along? Has an inside mid popped out of the ground somewhere?

Well I'm not sure what Essendon have to do with anything, but I seem to remember them beating Hawthorn convincingly and playing finals with the 2nd least experienced list in the league in 2019.

And they're going to get 2 BnF winners back into their lineup for 2020? Wowee, big room for improvement there.

 

[threesixpio]

Well I'm not sure what Essendon have to do with anything, but I seem to remember them beating Hawthorn convincingly and playing finals with the 2nd least experienced list in the league in 2019.

I agree. Essendon have nothing to do with anything

 

[threesixpio]

JW when he sees a Hawthorn thread