Can Matt Rowell win the Rising Star award and Brownlow medal in 2021?

Can Rowell win the Rising Star & Brownlow in 2021?

  • Yes

  • No


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Rod Stroker

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Baring injury he would have to be a pretty safe bet (For the rising star)

I think Phillips will do very well in 2021 as well and would usually be the favourite for the rising star but not against Rowell.
As in our Will Phillips?

Is he regarded as the best mid drafted this year?
 

RUNVS

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As in our Will Phillips?

Is he regarded as the best mid drafted this year?
Yes that is what I was thinking. Looking at Phillips he seems like the guy who is going to be the highest rated in 2021. Whether he turns out to be the best in the draft pool is still unknown, but I think in 2021 he will be the best of the 2020 draft crop. He is pretty much ready to go.
 

Rod Stroker

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Yes that is what I was thinking. Looking at Phillips he seems like the guy who is going to be the highest rated in 2021. Whether he turns out to be the best in the draft pool is still unknown, but I think in 2021 he will be the best of the 2020 draft crop. He is pretty much ready to go.
Gee I hope so. We've lacked genuine star mids for so long. Feels like it's coming together for us though with Phillips and Powell, joining the rising stars of LDU, Simpkin, Thomas..
 

freddy mercury

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Gonna be hard when Jack Steele will win both, right saints fans?
 

Piggy Smalls

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Rowell won’t win either award in 2021. Hayden Young will win the rising star and Fyfe will win his third Brownlow.
 

Lsta062

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I don’t think so. Top of the range midfielders like Lachie Neale, Dusty, Dangerfield and Tom Mitchell took seasons to get their first Brownlow and only have 1. I think it’s too difficult to get in your first year.

Besides, he’d be competing with midfielders like Petracca who are gearing up to have a real breakout season so I don’t think he’d beat someone like him in the Brownlow race.

Having said that, Rising Star is easily him if he has a full season in my opinion.
 

ImissFrosty

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He will easily win the rising star.
I'd give him a fair chance to win the Brownlow but I think he'll be around top 5. Petracca and Neale biggest chance I reckon and I can't see him going past them.
 

GC2015

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He absolutely could, but whether he will or not will come down to whether he can meet the new levels of opposition attention he'll garner and the expectation of being a gamebreaker week in week out, as well as the next crop coming in and bashing the door down.

What happens if someone - JUH or Thilthorpe or McDonald - come in and kick 40+ goals in their first season, aka Hogan? What happens if someone from 2018 up who is yet to make their debut comes in and just flushes it as a midfielder/forward, like Stephenson did?

I can see him winning a brownlow more than I can see him winning both. The AFL wanting a good news story is strong, but it isn't that powerful.
As talented as JUH, Thilthorpe and McDonald are, you'd have to assume none of them will start their careers the way Rowell did. We're talking about a kid that started his career better than Judd did and that is a huge statement considering the way people view Judd. This is a special kind of talent that comes along once every 10 or 20 years. Don't forget, he came up against the reigning Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe in just his fourth ever AFL game and completely dominated to take the 3 Brownlow votes with 20 disposals, 2 goals, 7 clearances and 5 tackles (in reduced quarters!) to Fyfe's 11 disposals, 0 goals, 3 clearances and 3 tackles. Fyfe even tried to make a statement by tackling him within the first 10 seconds of the game and this teenager shrugged off the attempted tackle like it was nothing:



The question is really whether he can recover 100% from his injury and it doesn't affect his development from here onwards because we already know he's capable of playing at an extremely high level. If the recovery is a success, then we're going to see one of the best AFL careers of all time with this kid.
 

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Piggy Smalls

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As talented as JUH, Thilthorpe and McDonald are, you'd have to assume none of them will start their careers the way Rowell did. We're talking about a kid that started his career better than Judd did and that is a huge statement considering the way people view Judd. This is a special kind of talent that comes along once every 10 or 20 years. Don't forget, he came up against the reigning Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe in just his fourth ever AFL game and completely dominated to take the 3 Brownlow votes with 20 disposals, 2 goals, 7 clearances and 5 tackles (in reduced quarters!) to Fyfe's 11 disposals, 0 goals, 3 clearances and 3 tackles. Fyfe even tried to make a statement by tackling him within the first 10 seconds of the game and this teenager shrugged off the attempted tackle like it was nothing:



The question is really whether he can recover 100% from his injury and it doesn't affect his development from here onwards because we already know he's capable of playing at an extremely high level. If the recovery is a success, then we're going to see one of the best AFL careers of all time with this kid.
No pressure then?
 

Gethelred

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As talented as JUH, Thilthorpe and McDonald are, you'd have to assume none of them will start their careers the way Rowell did. We're talking about a kid that started his career better than Judd did and that is a huge statement considering the way people view Judd. This is a special kind of talent that comes along once every 10 or 20 years. Don't forget, he came up against the reigning Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe in just his fourth ever AFL game and completely dominated to take the 3 Brownlow votes with 20 disposals, 2 goals, 7 clearances and 5 tackles (in reduced quarters!) to Fyfe's 11 disposals, 0 goals, 3 clearances and 3 tackles. Fyfe even tried to make a statement by tackling him within the first 10 seconds of the game and this teenager shrugged off the attempted tackle like it was nothing:



The question is really whether he can recover 100% from his injury and it doesn't affect his development from here onwards because we already know he's capable of playing at an extremely high level. If the recovery is a success, then we're going to see one of the best AFL careers of all time with this kid.
I'm not saying I disagree with any of that. Just, you're going to have the same voices who were chirping for Hogan over Cripps because 'KPF is harder', and Rowell's going to have to either top himself to do it or it to be a dud year in the RS.

Like I said, I'd put more money on him winning a Charlie than him winning both.
 

GC2015

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I'm not saying I disagree with any of that. Just, you're going to have the same voices who were chirping for Hogan over Cripps because 'KPF is harder', and Rowell's going to have to either top himself to do it or it to be a dud year in the RS.

Like I said, I'd put more money on him winning a Charlie than him winning both.
That's usually not how the voters see it though. Jesse Hogan and Nick Riewoldt are the only key forwards to receive the Rising Star award in the last 20 years and virtually every other recipient was either a midfielder or a medium/small forward that would later become a midfielder. On the rare occasion we've seen a defender like Daniel Talia win it but the vast majority of winners have either been current midfielders or future midfielders. The Brownlow is an even more extreme example of this midfield favouritism. You'd probably have to go as far back as 1994 to find the last non-midfielder to win it when then-defender Gavin Wanganeen claimed the Charlie but even then he later became a midfielder and really played the half back flank position like a quick mid in a lot of ways.

I really don't see key forwards as being the reason why Rowell would lose either award in 2021. The voters prefer dominant mids.
 

HairyO

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As talented as JUH, Thilthorpe and McDonald are, you'd have to assume none of them will start their careers the way Rowell did. We're talking about a kid that started his career better than Judd did and that is a huge statement considering the way people view Judd. This is a special kind of talent that comes along once every 10 or 20 years. Don't forget, he came up against the reigning Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe in just his fourth ever AFL game and completely dominated to take the 3 Brownlow votes with 20 disposals, 2 goals, 7 clearances and 5 tackles (in reduced quarters!) to Fyfe's 11 disposals, 0 goals, 3 clearances and 3 tackles. Fyfe even tried to make a statement by tackling him within the first 10 seconds of the game and this teenager shrugged off the attempted tackle like it was nothing:



The question is really whether he can recover 100% from his injury and it doesn't affect his development from here onwards because we already know he's capable of playing at an extremely high level. If the recovery is a success, then we're going to see one of the best AFL careers of all time with this kid.
Average 1st game, next 3 games against literal witches hats, then injured.
 

GC2015

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Average 1st game, next 3 games against literal witches hats, then injured.
Depends on how you choose to view it. Round 1 was played on March 21st and Round 2 was played on June 13th. That's essentially an extra preseason to develop, which makes a huge difference for someone of Rowell's age. It's reasonable to suggest this was a big factor in his increased performance between Round 1 and Round 2.

He's expected to join the main group for full contact training this coming Monday so if all goes to plan you could argue he will have completed the equivalent of 2.5/3 preseasons going into Round 1 this year. We're going to find out pretty quickly if he's up to it this year given we play away to West Coast in Round 1. He's already dominated the Eagles once in his career but they will obviously go into this clash with a completely different approach. Should be fascinating to watch.
 

HairyO

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Depends on how you choose to view it. Round 1 was played on March 21st and Round 2 was played on June 13th. That's essentially an extra preseason to develop, which makes a huge difference for someone of Rowell's age. It's reasonable to suggest this was a big factor in his increased performance between Round 1 and Round 2.

He's expected to join the main group for full contact training this coming Monday so if all goes to plan you could argue he will have completed the equivalent of 2.5/3 preseasons going into Round 1 this year. We're going to find out pretty quickly if he's up to it this year given we play away to West Coast in Round 1. He's already dominated the Eagles once in his career but they will obviously go into this clash with a completely different approach. Should be fascinating to watch.
You also factor in the 3 winning games were against: Adelaide, WCE who were publicly whining about being stuck in QLD, and Freo who privately felt exactly the same as WCE.

He may end up the next Dusty, or he may end up a very good, or even great Midfielder, but well below the expectation many seem to have for him right now.

I'm happy waiting for a much larger sample size.

1st game is against WCE in Perth. It will be very interesting to see.
 

GC2015

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You also factor in the 3 winning games were against: Adelaide, WCE who were publicly whining about being stuck in QLD, and Freo who privately felt exactly the same as WCE.

He may end up the next Dusty, or he may end up a very good, or even great Midfielder, but well below the expectation many seem to have for him right now.

I'm happy waiting for a much larger sample size.

1st game is against WCE in Perth. It will be very interesting to see.
That's fair. I attended multiple games he played in last year and watched closely what he did on and off the ball. I'm fairly convinced he's just as good as people were suggesting and is the closest thing I've seen to Gary Ablett Jr in his prime around 2012-2014. He seemed to pop up in the right positions at the right times and always found a way to dispose of the ball or finish the play with an accurate i50 entry/kick the goal himself.
 

HairyO

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That's fair. I attended multiple games he played in last year and watched closely what he did on and off the ball. I'm fairly convinced he's just as good as people were suggesting and is the closest thing I've seen to Gary Ablett Jr in his prime around 2012-2014. He seemed to pop up in the right positions at the right times and always found a way to dispose of the ball or finish the play with an accurate i50 entry/kick the goal himself.
Id say Ablett's prime was before he went to GCS. His accumulation phase was GCS.

The 3 games Rowell played at home was against literal witches hats.
 

GC2015

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Id say Ablett's prime was before he went to GCS. His accumulation phase was GCS.
Depends on how you choose to look at it I suppose. Between 2012-14 (ages 27-30) Ablett averaged 32.3 disposals, 6.6 clearances, 5.3 tackles and 1.4 goals a game as well as an average of 24.6 Brownlow votes per season over that three year period. In reality he only played two and a half seasons due to his shoulder injury in 2014 and a few other games missed in 2012-13. He finished 2 votes behind the Brownlow winner in 2012, won the Brownlow medal in 2013 and was the screaming favourite to claim another Brownlow in 2014 before his injury. In the end he finished just 4 votes shy of winning the Brownlow in 2014 after missing a third of the season.

IMO these were his peak performance years in the AFL. I went to almost every home game between those years and watched on in awe of his ability. Now someone could argue the team should have performed better if he was really that good but you can easily make a counterargument that he didn't have as much help as he did at Geelong prior to 2011 and therefore what he did individually at the Suns is more impressive. It really just depends on how you want to look at it but the statistics certainly suggest 2012-14 were his peak years in the AFL.

The 3 games Rowell played at home was against literal witches hats.
You're entitled to your opinion but I think it would be unfair to suggest West Coast's midfield of Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Andrew Gaff and Elliot Yeo were witches hats in that game. Gaff had 29 disposals that night, Shuey 25, Kelly 24 and Yeo 21. It's not as if these guys were doing nothing. Adelaide is probably a far better example of what you're talking about but even then the Crouch brothers played in the midfield that night and had 22 disposals so it's not as if there was zero resistance. Then you have Fremantle with the reigning Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe running through their midfield. Say what you want about the other Fremantle midfielders that day but you can't deny Fyfe's quality and the fact that Rowell completely outplayed him that day.

Let's see how he goes against West Coast at Optus Stadium in Round 1.
 

Lip Gallagher

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I owned a race horse once, the question wasn't can he win a race, it was how many, he won nothing, NOTHING!!

I did get to mount the strapper though, strong thighs that girl.
 

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