List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)
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Good to see you come out of the Shadows and into the Dark Navy.
Agresta.Brodie has certainly been involved on the table last couple years. SOS just reads em out. McCartney will probably read the names for GWS too.
I wonder who has final final say though for us. I wouldn't be the least surprised if Brodie does. Or if SOS does. Or it is a dual minded final say. As long as it is defined and harmonius.
PS : I had you down as within 5 minutes jumping on that tidbit. 45 mins....you let me down
Toddski
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Knightmare is a good read and deserves credit for his efforts but as far as his personal rankings of players goes, I don't rate him. Take them with a grain of salt.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
OK, playing list manager for the day:
3 & 6 for 1
Why Suns: They get Walsh. They don't select the flight-risk kids. They don't overpay for some less-talented kid just for safety.
Why Blues: 2 bites of cherry instead of 1.
Ruling: No way, Suns get rolled. Giving up pick 6 to move up 2 spots? Suns giving up too much. 2 & 6 for 1 even more absurd (NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN). Edit: we lack appropriate sweeteners to even up this deal.
3 & 6 for 1 and 2019 first
Suns: Get Walsh, much better compensation for their picks.
Blues: 2019 1st is best guess pick 3. So that's 3 for 3 (cancels out) and 6 for 1 (unfair)
Ruling: No way, Blues getting robbed
2 & 3 for 1 and 2019 first
Suns: Give up a lot, but get a lot including access to Walsh, avoid somewhat unique go-home risk this year and have more draft capital when hopefully they are less of a basket case next year.
Blues: 3 for 3 and 2 for 1. Getting close. Probably worth it if we rate this year's elite talent as super elite. Potentially recruit 2 x SA kids together? Club would like to back itself to rise next year, but that's a BIG risk.
Ruling: Virtually even, but I think we can negotiate a sweetener. This is based on assumption Suns are more motivated to avoid disaster this year than we are to accumulate more talent.
So how do we even things out?
GC's picks next year don't work. GC 1st (pick 1-4) and Bris 1st (4-10) too valuable. GC's next pick is ~50 not valuable enough.
GC's 2018 picks are in the right range; 19, 24, 29..... 29 too little. 19 too much? 24 about right.
ferrisb's final fair(ish) offers^
1 for 3 and 19
1 for 2 and 24
1 and 2019 1st for 2, 3 and 19. This is unnecessary compared to previous ones, but would be something we might introduce if we really wanted to grab two guys this year.
^ Note: I am trying to work out deals that might happen, not deals that have us ream the Suns. I think these favour us mildly, but this is based on the premise that the Suns are trying to pry pick 1 from us, not we are trying to offload it (seller's market). Also if these trades happen, they happen on draft night so the AFL gets their action.
** If I wanted a more Carlton-sided deal, I'd suggest something like 2, 3 and Bris 2019 1st (~7) for pick 1 and 2019 1st. But can't see this happening. I would put up a 4th SOS statue in my back garden if this happened.
3 & 6 for 1
Why Suns: They get Walsh. They don't select the flight-risk kids. They don't overpay for some less-talented kid just for safety.
Why Blues: 2 bites of cherry instead of 1.
Ruling: No way, Suns get rolled. Giving up pick 6 to move up 2 spots? Suns giving up too much. 2 & 6 for 1 even more absurd (NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN). Edit: we lack appropriate sweeteners to even up this deal.
3 & 6 for 1 and 2019 first
Suns: Get Walsh, much better compensation for their picks.
Blues: 2019 1st is best guess pick 3. So that's 3 for 3 (cancels out) and 6 for 1 (unfair)
Ruling: No way, Blues getting robbed
2 & 3 for 1 and 2019 first
Suns: Give up a lot, but get a lot including access to Walsh, avoid somewhat unique go-home risk this year and have more draft capital when hopefully they are less of a basket case next year.
Blues: 3 for 3 and 2 for 1. Getting close. Probably worth it if we rate this year's elite talent as super elite. Potentially recruit 2 x SA kids together? Club would like to back itself to rise next year, but that's a BIG risk.
Ruling: Virtually even, but I think we can negotiate a sweetener. This is based on assumption Suns are more motivated to avoid disaster this year than we are to accumulate more talent.
So how do we even things out?
GC's picks next year don't work. GC 1st (pick 1-4) and Bris 1st (4-10) too valuable. GC's next pick is ~50 not valuable enough.
GC's 2018 picks are in the right range; 19, 24, 29..... 29 too little. 19 too much? 24 about right.
ferrisb's final fair(ish) offers^
1 for 3 and 19
1 for 2 and 24
1 and 2019 1st for 2, 3 and 19. This is unnecessary compared to previous ones, but would be something we might introduce if we really wanted to grab two guys this year.
^ Note: I am trying to work out deals that might happen, not deals that have us ream the Suns. I think these favour us mildly, but this is based on the premise that the Suns are trying to pry pick 1 from us, not we are trying to offload it (seller's market). Also if these trades happen, they happen on draft night so the AFL gets their action.
** If I wanted a more Carlton-sided deal, I'd suggest something like 2, 3 and Bris 2019 1st (~7) for pick 1 and 2019 1st. But can't see this happening. I would put up a 4th SOS statue in my back garden if this happened.
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Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
1, 2019 1st & Adelaide's 2019 3rd for 2, 3 & Brisbane's 2019 1st.
You can swap 19 in for Brisbane's 2019 1st if the Suns need to lose another 2018 pick due to all their DFA signings.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
The first one is still too slanted in our favour IMO.
The second one was my final suggestion.
What is going on? AFL website says 7:00pm but yet no Welcome to Carlton Walsh thread??
Next week!!? Aargh
Next week!!? Aargh
not you.
Harsh
Ahhhhhh, think it's been covered in plenty of posts previously marleyblue. It's pretty hard to go too far wrong with anyone in the Top 10 this year. Quite happy for the Walsh Fanboy Club to go nuts right up until the point SOS trades Pick 1 for Picks 3 & 6.
Think we'll all enjoy whoever SOS selects for many years to come.
Judging by our Phantom Draft, there were plenty of very useful types still being picked in the 80s so I hope we don't burn those later picks on DFAs with little to no future.
Jeremias
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So the AFL has made another rule -
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-15/new-rookie-rules-clarke-mumford-free-to-join-club-of-choice
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-15/new-rookie-rules-clarke-mumford-free-to-join-club-of-choice
I wonder if we'll look to use this given we've been linked with a few who would be eligible.
Liam Hickmott
Sam Fisher
Jesse Palmer
Mason Blakey
Mitch Grigg
You would think clubs would also be speaking with the likes of Jye Bolton, Podhajski, Pickett, Maguire etc. who have either been listed previously, or overlooked, and are chances to be taken towards the second half of the draft without being guarantees.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-15/new-rookie-rules-clarke-mumford-free-to-join-club-of-choice
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-15/new-rookie-rules-clarke-mumford-free-to-join-club-of-choice
I wonder if we'll look to use this given we've been linked with a few who would be eligible.
Liam Hickmott
Sam Fisher
Jesse Palmer
Mason Blakey
Mitch Grigg
You would think clubs would also be speaking with the likes of Jye Bolton, Podhajski, Pickett, Maguire etc. who have either been listed previously, or overlooked, and are chances to be taken towards the second half of the draft without being guarantees.
He's got that look in the eye Walsh, very unscientific I know. Disappointing we can't have all of the top 7, but barring the godfather 2 for 1 deal seems a no brainer.
Welcome on board Fettt....now, drop the gun, get down on the ground and put your hands on your head
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
So after one of the worst years by any team in living memory, the AFL's big helping hand was we could sign 2 mature age players for free on our main list or trade to other teams' main lists.
And then fast forward a month and ANY team can recruit mature age players carte blanche on their rookie lists?
What the actual F?
And then fast forward a month and ANY team can recruit mature age players carte blanche on their rookie lists?
What the actual F?
Makes a mockery of the AFL's 'assistance' package.
thylacine60
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it's all to do with carlton's unlucky timing...........
8inmylife
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ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
True.
But if the AFL would have announced this earlier it would have made our assistance literally worth less than nothing (using it would have been a hindrance to other clubs).
Wouldn't be surprised if other clubs knew about this being on the way too. Explains why there was so little traction/benefit from our mature ager trades.
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