List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread II

[footyfan1978]

I may have myself on ignore - would explain a few things........

Schrodinger's Thylacine

 

[murphster]

I should add to this that in regards to Finbar vs McKenzie, we traded down twice late in the draft as we recognised we weren't taking the best projected talent over the next 2-3 years, but had instead decided to make an investment in Finbar's character and scope for growth.

So we let Geelong, Fremantle, Melbourne and St Kilda scrap it out over mature aged recruits and re-established ourselves in the 4th and 5th round of the 2019 draft.

Had we been able to get ahead of Richmond for Fraser Turner, I suspect we would have. I also suspect Geelong was expecting us to take Jake Tarca.

Just like we jumped ahead of them to snare Stocker, Richmond would be spewing on that one they also rated him highly.

 

[AlecDuncan]

The market price for Cripps was #13 once upon a time.

 

[Jimmae]

Just like we jumped ahead of them to snare Stocker, Richmond would be spewing on that one they also rated him highly.

I expected him to be gone in the 30-40 range. Youngest player drafted and he's ready to go.

 

[footyfan1978]

Just like we jumped ahead of them to snare Stocker, Richmond would be spewing on that one they also rated him highly.

Yep, got him just before they snared him.

 

[murphster]

The market value for Stocker this year was around pick 20. Pick 8 is only Carlton’s assessment, not the market. He doesn’t suddenly become pick 8 because that’s what we want to believe to make ourselves feel better. I’m not saying you ignore your own rating but market value and what you personally think it’s worth are both relevant.

Ultimately time will tell where he sits in this draft and whether we overpaid, but definitely not a no brainer.

Regarding stockers form in first year, it’s not that it’s going to define how good he is but it will alter perception of the deal. Right now stocker could be anything in our minds. After his first year we will see him in a more practical light and the reality of the deal will be more evident.


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I honestly think he will have a better first year than Walsh and probably many others, he is already 183cm 83kg perfect height to weight ratio for an AFL footballer and therefore will stand up better to the rigours and not get pushed off the ball as easily, could easily go on and win the rising star award IMHO, will definately earn a nomination and play plenty of footy.

 

[AT97]

He loves Lukosius, rates Collier-Dawkins highly, and also felt McKenzie was a top 30 talent. We passed over all three with our first three picks.

FWIW, I agree with him on Lukosius and to a lesser extent McKenzie. Stocker vs. RCD is a classic case of production vs upside, with Stocker edging him out in my books. If people think Stocker needs to work on his endurance, RCD is a whole other tier down, and arguably 3 pre-seasons away from being able to properly rotate into the midfield, let alone start there.

Every club effectively passed over McKenzie 4-8 times, so there's got to be a story there.

Time will tell whether knightmare or the overwhelming majority of recruiters got it right re Walsh I suppose.

 

[katmanblue]

You should read what his espn colleague (knightmare) wrote about us. Pretty sure he Graded us worst performed (or pretty close to it) for the draft period.

He always does. It's the filth in him. Can't help it.

Look at the players we have picked up in the last 4 draft/trade periods, I don't think we have ever gotten more than a b-.

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[katmanblue]

don't think I've ever read a knightmare phantom - don't think I ever will..........

Sounds like trying to read one would be a ....

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[windows1]

What we did was perfectly fine in principle, but did we take the player we really needed?
That's not a slight on Stocker as he may end up a wonderful player but at the expense of.....Kennedy?
Does it matter if we took the three best players in the draft if they all happened to be full-backs? I think it matters.

Again, the principle of the trade was sound, but did we take the player we deemed to be best, or the player we needed most?
We'll never know but have to 'trust' that next year starts to fill the gaps that this draft hasn't covered up for us.

I think it is pretty sound Harks. We are hopeful on Kennedy. He’s not a lock. I think the balance is terrific in the kids now.

Inside: Crippa Dow Stocker Kennedy
In/Out: Setterfield Fisher SPS
Outside: Lob Murph (I think he will increasingly play this way) Walsh (at least early in career).

 

[katmanblue]

I honestly think he will have a better first year than Walsh and probably many others, he is already 183cm 83kg perfect height to weight ratio for an AFL footballer and therefore will stand up better to the rigours and not get pushed off the ball as easily, could easily go on and win the rising star award IMHO, will definately earn a nomination and play plenty of footy.

And will be 19 in Jan. So he is almost a year older than most.

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[Honour]

I expected him to be gone in the 30-40 range. Youngest player drafted and he's ready to go.

He turns 19 in January
....oops I'm too slow off the mark.

 

[windows1]

After the year we just had you don't see the importance of quality depth?

I think we just fixed it. Setters Walsh McGovern Faz Neuman Stocker

So even if we had the SAME level of horrific injuries this year then these guys are playing instead of Rowe O’Shea Mullet etc.

 

[Jimmae]

Time will tell whether knightmare or the overwhelming majority of recruiters got it right re Walsh I suppose.

Most of those comments involved phrases like 'high production', 'outstanding character', 'future captain'.

When they talked about Lukosius, they talked about the prototypical forward, tall or otherwise. They talked about a guy who would change their system of forward entries. You don't hear the same things said about Walsh.

 

[Jimmae]

He turns 19 in January
....oops I'm too slow off the mark.

We were talking about Fraser Turner, who is 17.

 

[windows1]

You should read what his espn colleague (knightmare) wrote about us. Pretty sure he Graded us worst performed (or pretty close to it) for the draft period.

He bags us every year. Literally every year.

 

[murphster]

He always does. It's the filth in him. Can't help it.

Look at the players we have picked up in the last 4 draft/trade periods, I don't think we have ever gotten more than a b-.

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It’s a joke isn’t it, but that’s alright when we are done and start winning flags how stupid are there ratings going to look then. Would challenge anyone to do better than what SOS and the boys have done over the last4 years+.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

The market value for Stocker this year was around pick 20. Pick 8 is only Carlton’s assessment, not the market. He doesn’t suddenly become pick 8 because that’s what we want to believe to make ourselves feel better. I’m not saying you ignore your own rating but market value and what you personally think it’s worth are both relevant.

Ultimately time will tell where he sits in this draft and whether we overpaid, but definitely not a no brainer.

Regarding stockers form in first year, it’s not that it’s going to define how good he is but it will alter perception of the deal. Right now stocker could be anything in our minds. After his first year we will see him in a more practical light and the reality of the deal will be more evident.


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What was market value for Riley Collier-Dawkins? Mid-teens? Tigers would have selected Stocker ahead of RCD.

 

[HARKER]

I think it is pretty sound Harks. We are hopeful on Kennedy. He’s not a lock. I think the balance is terrific in the kids now.

Inside: Crippa Dow Stocker Kennedy
In/Out: Setterfield Fisher SPS
Outside: Lob Murph (I think he will increasingly play this way) Walsh (at least early in career).

This is the thing I'm leading to; You cannot afford to be 'hopeful' and then for not being confident, double-up on the same types. You have to be sure.

We do not have a system devoid of player limits and without a salary cap. You have to be very clear in what you're doing and the blend of types you're bringing into the club. You can't put all your resources into one end of the ground and ignore the other, one type of player and not the other.
I know, I know. SOS knows more than me and is he's considered all this. Sure, they've likely covered all the bases and have all the answers, but we can only comment on what we see and not on what we don't see.

The big trick may yet be unmasked next year and the applause will duly arrive.
In my case, I was very happy with the trade period even though we didn't get Shiel and if had have, would have we taken Stocker? I don't know, but those last few picks have just left me a little............so what.

Could have we done better? If nothing else, it's at least worthy of a little friendly chat.

 

[TerryWallet]

I should add to this that in regards to Finbar vs McKenzie, we traded down twice late in the draft as we recognised we weren't taking the best projected talent over the next 2-3 years, but had instead decided to make an investment in Finbar's character and scope for growth.

So we let Geelong, Fremantle, Melbourne and St Kilda scrap it out over mature aged recruits and re-established ourselves in the 4th and 5th round of the 2019 draft.

Had we been able to get ahead of Richmond for Fraser Turner, I suspect we would have. I also suspect Geelong was expecting us to take Jake Tarca.

Jimmae, i've been having a think about this new in-trade trade system. I think SOS and Lloyd had a deeper understanding of how it works than others did because they had been over in the States studying it and no doubt asking those who have been through it their thoughts.

For instance with the Stocker pick, No19 is actually not No19 when you can actually put a face to it. Under the old system, if we rated Stocker at say 10 on our board and we traded to get 10(like we did with LOB) then it would be seen as a Pick 10 and Stocker seen as a Pick 10. For us he is a Pick 10 so this is a win for us. It can also be a win for Adelaide if all their picks they had marked on their board were already gone and they defer their value to next years draft.

Also on the Finbar example, it can pay to identify a roughie with a low pick every 2nd year because once again you can defer value to every 2nd year. For example , if you identify a roughie like Finbar you can confidently predict that you can keep trading down adding future low picks as you go. As you mentioned we added a future 4th and a 5th trading down because we knew Finbar wasn't being taken by anyone else. So for that Pick 70 odd we used on Finbar, we actually get Finbar and 2 sliders next year.

I hope this makes sense on paper. It does in my head.

 

[murphster]

And will be 19 in Jan. So he is almost a year older than most.

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Exactly so by next year we will have a 20 year old with a year of afl footy behind him and still have another first round pick if we don’t trade it for a mature Age player. Much better option than just going into next year with 1 first round pick in the top 10 and that’s it. Big win imo.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

This is the thing I'm leading to; You cannot afford to be 'hopeful' and then for not being confident, double-up on the same types. You have to be sure.

We do not have a system devoid of player limits and without a salary cap. You have to be very clear in what you're doing and the blend of types you're bringing into the club. You can't put all your resources into one end of the ground and ignore the other, one type of player and not the other.
I know, I know. SOS knows more than me and is he's considered all this. Sure, they've likely covered all the bases and have all the answers, but we can only comment on what we see and not on what we don't see.

The big trick may yet be unmasked next year and the applause will duly arrive.
In my case, I was very happy with the trade period even though we didn't get Shiel and if had have, would have we taken Stocker? I don't know, but those last few picks have just left me a little............so what.

Could have we done better? If nothing else, it's at least worthy of a little friendly chat.

It's definitely fine to question whether we could've done better. But I'll ask again, who are the players you wanted us to take instead? And if you're not sure, then perhaps look into who else was available.

 

[murphster]

He bags us every year. Literally every year.

If you click on the link I think you will find he is talking about the article Matt Walsh wrote about us which is extremely positive as opposed to other articles like knightmares, hence the colleague. Not explained very well so very misunderstood point being made.

 

[AT97]

Most of those comments involved phrases like 'high production', 'outstanding character', 'future captain'.

When they talked about Lukosius, they talked about the prototypical forward, tall or otherwise. They talked about a guy who would change their system of forward entries. You don't hear the same things said about Walsh.

And yet when recruiters were canvassed who they would take at 1, even after taking those comments into account overwhelmingly chose Walsh.

It was in a Fox sports article.

 

[bmaurizio]

Time will tell whether knightmare or the overwhelming majority of recruiters got it right re Walsh I suppose.

Regarding Walsh is a skilled 250 gamer future leader coachable and will be very popular amongst his peers. It’s been repeated infinitum.
Stocker is a ripper too mature and professional tougher and more inside but speedy breakaway speed good endurance and nice kick too.
We’ve added too gems to our midfield it’s so exciting looking forward hard to keep the lid on it.