List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

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Yubby

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Brilliant post TSG and thanks for sharing what you've heard. The thing that surprises me is that we would be after so many picks this year? Do you know much more on our thoughts on why we are looking at this outside of next year being a compromised draft?

I always believed this year and next we were keener to trade our picks away to bring in the experienced talent to finish our list rather than going to the draft to build organically still. The reality is that we're talking 4 years before these draftees are significantly contributing and will have broken into the 22 so just seems inconsistent with messaging from the club. I can see us taking 1 or 2 quality players and some project players for needs but would be really surprised if we traded away picks from next year that we'll need to bring experienced players in with.
 

Eiffel 65

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Interesting statement in that article

After the first 30 the draft flattens out and divides opinion. Expect more of a 'needs' focus from clubs after the first 30 selections.

Wondering if they are suggesting best available in the first 2 rounds;)
My take on his analysis is that it's best to remain in the top 15 if you have a selection there.

Could well see teams selecting on a needs basis from the start of the second round.
 

Eiffel 65

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If Melbourne are likely to bid on Henry with pick 8, why wouldn't we target Fremantle's pick 10 in exchange for our future first (maybe some shuffling of later picks too)?

Take back to back picks of 9 & 10 into the draft.

Need a future 4th back in the trade but that sort of back end stuff isn't hard to orchestrate.
 

David C

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If Melbourne are likely to bid on Henry with pick 8, why wouldn't we target Fremantle's pick 10 in exchange for our future first (maybe some shuffling of later picks too)?

Take back to back picks of 9 & 10 into the draft.

Need a future 4th back in the trade but that sort of back end stuff isn't hard to orchestrate.
Freo don't have a future 4th so it might be a bit harder than you think. Would need another club involved.
 

My Hat

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I think the rule is that we need a future 4th or better. So for example if we get a second future 3rd from somewhere but still have no future 4th, that's fine.
 

HARKER

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You are being selective again Harks, but lets's entertain the idea, despite misunderstanding what I have posted

1. How much growth have we seen in Wines? His first 12 game season he averaged 25 odd disposals a season, conveniently he is still on a similar average. Cripps grew height wise from his draft year, averaged 26.9 disposals in his 2nd full season 28.1 this year, massive growth? De Goey 18.2 in his 2nd season, 16.8 this season. Tell me Harks, how much growth have those 3 had? No bias, just facts. Worpel was never a 1st round prospect, nor should he have slid into the 3rd round. Long term he is a early to mid 2nd round talent long term. This messiah complex with Clarkson and Hawthorn is hilarious. What would you make of Hartung, Garlett, Wilsmore, Webster, Ross, Hatherley, Tatupu, O'Rourke, Miles, Pittonett, Hardisty, Miller-Lewis, Langford, Fitzpatrick, Lovell, Surmane, Stewart, all from 2013-2015? Yet you want to hang your hat on a mature body draftee, who is clearly an exception to the rule given the above names

2. Yes, ALWAYS best available when drafting and I have never deviated from that statement

3. This is where you have completely misunderstood my previous post. Not Dusty at 3, I stated "would you say no to drafting 3 of him? " https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/carltons-2019-draft-thread.1209887/page-50#post-63538590 . 1 the square/pocket, 1 on a HFF, 1 in the guts. Go on tell me best available is not effective with a player like Martin. Perhaps you want an example of a lesser player? Perhaps Shane Edwards, who could play HB, Mid or Small forward, should we not draft 3 of him as they are too much alike?

"In summary" you don't bypass better talent to reach for needs. That was the mantra of Rogers and Hughes, not one that I would use as a strategy for any form of success.

Then you go on in other posts about "best available" has been disproved, show me evidence of where that has failed? Perhaps rather than debating Best Available v Needs, perhaps you/I/others should be debating how and who we rate as best available and why.

As for the headline, "Reaching again Harks?" You would rather bypass 20 odd players that have greater talent and select a player of need, the headline is fitting Harks and I am grateful, SOS does not subscribe to your form of Rogers/Hughes mantra/recruiting
Selective? That's sort of what I suggested you were doing....anyway...
Look, no harm done and thank you for the lengthy and well thought out viewpoints and just because I disagree with several points, doesn't make them any more interesting to read.
There is no 'one way' to do things. That would be somewhat dumb to lock oneself into a formula that hasn't scope to twist and turn when required and would ultimately make for a recipe to disaster.

When it come to our club (the one I'm most interested in) my view is to add to the sum of the parts. This is hard to express and it doesn't simply come about getting a small forward for the sake of adding a small forward, any more than it does for adding talent for simply adding talent.

You and I could use the same formula yet still come up with different results. There's never one simple way to go about putting the right pieces in place to suit a. The List Build. b. The TPP constraints c. Game-plan needs d. Coaches requests e. marquee player focus.

I still see us as somewhat a dumb competition that has a long way to go in order to maximise all aspects of List building, management, development etc.
It just keeps showing its face over and again, so it's somewhat hard to pretend that we're in any way advanced at all.

........and in the meantime we'll all be focused on getting the best player of the draft......as if that's the be-all and end-all. :)
 

HARKER

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After a little viewing -

Yes to Serong - No to Flanders
Yes to Young - No to Ash
Yes to Kemp - No to Robertson
Yes to Stephens - Subject to Character
No to Luke Jackson but not because he can't play. Back in TDK.
 

BigBreakfast

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The main area I'd like SOS to tackle is our transition from defence to attack. It's simply far too slow. Draft Prospects such as Trent Bianco, Jeremy Sharp, Lachie Ash and Dylan Stephens help to address this area with speed, acceleration, endurance, accumulation and elite foot skills. The other area I'd like to see SOS address is finding a young ruckman to develop. The fact that Essendon attempted to bring Sandilands out of retirement should indicate that the current batch of backup ruckmen on AFL lists simply don't measure up.

2019 Picks: 9, 43, 57, 70, 85
Future Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th.

Draft Strategy with Pick 9.
SOS can either spend Pick 9 or trade Pick 9, but if he does choose to trade Pick 9 then it will happen on the night. According to rumours I've heard (but unable to confirm) SOS has been approached by three clubs, Gold Coast, Fremantle & Geelong. Interestingly, they're supposedly all after the same draft prospect, Luke Jackson.

Rumoured/Potential Trade Scenarios
Trade 1: Gold Coast
The Suns approached SOS about trading Pick 9 and our Future 2nd for Picks 15 & 20. There will be an Academy Selection and potentially 2 Father/Son Selections as well as an NGA selection so these Picks could end up being 19 & 24. SOS and Brodie have declined this offer, but informed the Suns they open to trading Pick 9 if they consider the offer good enough.​
Trade 2: Fremantle
Freo are very, very keen on Jackson, but are concerned the Cats will beat them to the punch. The Dockers have offered up Picks 10 and 69 for Pick 9. SOS & Brodie are adamant that any deal must include Pick 22. Should it go ahead, the final deal may look something like:​
Picks 10 & 22 to Carlton > Picks 9 & Future 2nd to the Dockers.​
Trade 3: Geelong
Like us, the Cats have issues with their ruck division and have made no secret of their wish to acquire Jackson. SOS is supposedly more open to dealing with Wells due to potential of greater exposure to the 2019 National Draft. While I haven't any details (the mail wasn't that good), potential trades could look like, but not necessarily limited to:​
Pick 9 & Future 1st to Geelong > Picks 14, 17 & 24 to Carlton​
Pick 9 & Future 2nd to Geelong > Picks 14 & 17 to Carlton​

Pick Swaps
Swap 1: Geelong
Despite the potential trade scenarios above, even if they can't get Pick 9, I think Wells and his team may be amenable to orchestrating a Pick swap, because that still gives them plenty of exposure in this years National Draft while potentially improving their position in next years draft. One needs to remember though that Pick 17 may well become Pick 19 or 20 by the time you account for Father/Son, NGA & Academy selections.​
Future 1st to Geelong > Pick 17 & Cats Future 1st to Carlton.​

Ideal Scenario (at least in a perfect world).
Trade 2: Fremantle
Pick 9 & Future 2nd to Fremantle > Picks 10 & 22 to Carlton​
Pick Swap: Geelong
Future 1st to Geelong > Pick 17 & Cats Future 1st to Carlton​
Gives us great selection of Picks in the 2019 National Draft while leaving us with a 1st Rounder in the 2020 National Draft.

Final Draft Position
2019 Picks: 10, 17, 22, 43, 57, 70
2020 Picks: Cats 1st, 3rd, 5th.

Draft Selections - Top Ten
Pick 1: Matthew Rowell - Gold Coast
Well knock me down with a feather....​
Pick 2: Noah Anderson - Gold Coast
De Goey clone. Dunno what they see in him tbh.​
Pick 3: Tom Green - GWS (matching bid from Melbourne)
Fits the Demons MO perfectly, but unfortunately the Giants have first dibs.​
Pick 4: Sam Flanders - Melbourne
Seriously good forward pocket with vice-like hands that is tremendous at finding his own ball inside 50 or through the midfield. Would love him at the Blues.​
Pick 5: Caleb Serong - Adelaide
Will provide a point of difference both up forward and through the middle for the Crows. Great addition to go with Chayce Jones from last year.​
Pick 6: Hayden Young - Sydney
The Swans need a lot of things as they start their rebuild. Don't be surprised if they take Deven Robertson here as their midfield is another area that requires refurbishment.​
Pick 7: Lachie Ash - Fremantle
With an ageing Stephen Hill and after losing Brad Hill, the Dockers will be looking for someone with elite disposal and speed. Ash fits the bill.​
Pick 8: Brodie Kemp - Melbourne
After trading Hogan, Weideman not coming on and McDonald's injury and form issues, the Demons got found out for a lack of tall forwards last year. Kemp's versatility could be exactly what they're looking for......although he's unlikely to be much help next season.​
Pick 9: Luke Jackson - Fremantle (traded from Carlton)
Along with the Cats & Suns, the Dockers are very, very keen on Jackson.​
Pick 10: Dylan Stephens - Carlton (traded from Fremantle)
Speedy outside mid with a huge tank that can accumulate possessions and has a penetrating left foot.​
Our Draft Selections
Pick 10 - Dylan Stephens 183cm, 74kg, 8/1/2001, Outside Midfielder, Norwood SA.
Outside midfielder with pace to burn, good acceleration and has a massive tank. Like many natural lefties Stephens has an accurate, raking kick with good penetration, but tends to be deadliest over longer distances rather than shorter ones. Apart from the U18 Nationals, all of Stephens games have been at SANFL League or Reserves level against men where he averaged 19 disposals/match and 31 disposals/match respectively. One of the issues I tend to have with outside midfielders is their ability to find their own ball. Stephens essentially played an outside role at League level with only 33% of his possessions were contested, but when asked to play a more inside/balanced role at Reserve level over 61% of his possessions were contested......so he can find his own ball when required. The other thing I like about Stephens is his excellent work rate. His defensive running and preparedness to tackle is first rate, which is something many of our current midfielders lack. I think a line-breaking midfielder with excellent disposal and the running power of Walsh would be a fantastic addition to our list. Although only lightly-framed at this stage, I think Stephens has already demonstrated that he's good enough that he'll be pushing for a spot from Round 1.​

Pick 17 - Cooper Stephens 188cm, 83kg, 17/1/2001, Inside Midfielder, Geelong Falcons, Vic Country
I'm one who believes when you see a bargain you take it and that you can never have enough players who know how to get their hands on the ball. Had the Geelong Falcon's Co-Captain not broken his leg in the 3rd Round of the NAB League, I suspect we could be talking about Stephens as a potential Top 10 Pick. His best work is done around the stoppages with clean, sharp hands and short kicks based upon good decisions, however his long kicking when running flat knacker needs work. The traits that typify Stephens are his effort, application, consistency, work ethic and hardness around the contest. Stephens' was held in such high regard that despite being ruled out of the U18 Champs he was still named as Vice-Captain of the Vic Country squad. Although arriving at the Draft Combine with a limited fitness base Stephens still managed to top the demanding Yo-Yo test recording 21.8 and running vertical jump of 83cm. While I would expect Stephens to spend much of his first year at VFL level honing some areas of his game and rebuilding some of his fitness base he's demonstrated that he's already got much of the physical size and endurance he'll require at AFL level. I think it's also important not pigeon-hole players to a certain position as Stephens has also demonstrated his ability to play some good footy across half-back as an underager during the 2018 U18 Nationals against a very powerful SA side.​
*Pick 17 is likely to become Pick 19 or 20 with potential bids on Maginness, Henry and Mead pushing it out.

Pick 22 - Trent Bianco 178cm, 70kg, 20/1/2001, Defender, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic Metro
Bianco is a small running defender, much in the style of Jayden Short or Kade Simpson, but probably a little more capable of finding his own ball when required. Bianco generally plays on the outside where he accelerates down the ground before picking out a team mate with his sublime foot skills. He is an extremely damaging player simply due to sheer amount of metres he takes off the opposition before they can react. The Oakleigh Chargers' skipper had a superb 2019 NAB League season where he averaged almost 27 disposals/match with around two-thirds of those distributed by his lethal kicking. One of the things I really like about Bianco is how good his decision-making and execution is at top speed and as a result he rarely makes mistakes or commits clangers. Other things I like are his effort, application and consistency, so you know exactly what you're going to get from him each time he takes the field. Bianco's strengths can also be his weakness at times and he can find himself caught out of position occasionally, especially if the team mate he's just delivered the ball to turns it over. Bianco is very light-bodied at this stage and will need to hit the gym, but as Simmo and Short have already demonstrated, you don't need to be built like Arnie to play this role.​
*Pick 22 could end up being around Pick 25 or 26.
*I also looked hard at Sharp here, but preferred Dylan Stephens earlier.
Pick 43 - Nick Bryan 202cm, 87kg, 22/10/2001, Ruck, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic Metro
At some point you've got to bite the bullet and develop a ruckman and I won't lie, Bryan will take somewhere in the 2-4 year range to bring up to AFL standard. Not only is he tall, but he runs 20m in 2.91sec, has a standing vertical leap of 69 cm and has very clean hands at ground level. Although he's not Ben King quick, it was quite amazing to watch him run away from the opposition when he decides to use his speed. One area where Bryan has significantly improved this year is his contested marking. At this stage he is obviously still very raw, but I think he's got enormous scope for development and improvement in his game. I see our ruck division as our achilles heal. We have a once-in-a-generation midfielder in Cripps and potentially another one in Walsh, without a quality ruckman to give them a regular first look at the ball. Kreuzer struggles to get off the ground these days and was comfortably pantsed by virtually every quality ruckman he came up against this year. Pittonet's aggression will be more than welcome, but like Kreuzer, he doesn't often get off the ground and he's relatively slow. Anyone who has watched TDK at VFL level will tell you that he's yet to show he's got the tank to be a full-time ruck and Casboult is really a fill-in. As stated earlier, at some point you've got to bite the bullet and develop a ruckman and Nick Bryan would make for an exciting start.​
*Pick 43 may come in to around Pick 41.

Pick 57 - Hugo Ralphsmith 186cm, 77kg, 9/11/2001, Forward, Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro
Ralphsmith is one of a number of medium X-Factor forwards available for selection in the 2019 National Draft that also includes Elijah Taylor and Miles Bergman. Ralphsmith is capable dragging down spectacular marks, running rings around opponents, bursting away from traffic at break-neck speed and kicking unbelievable goals, but like many X-Factor types he can also go missing for extended periods of time. Where Ralphsmith is different to many X-Factor types is that he's not limited by a lack of endurance and he tested extremely well in the Yo-Yo test and the 2km time trial. While there have been some comparisons with Jaidyn Stephenson and he may look not dissimilar to Stephenson with ball in hand he is not. I watched Stephenson single-handedly rip apart an SA side at U18 National Championship level with 30 disposals and 5 goals from a wing, the most Ralphsmith has achieved is 20 disposals and 1 goal at NAB League level. There's a big difference. Apart from consistency, the other areas of his game he'll need to improve upon is his defensive work-rate and tackling, which is relatively poor given his speed and endurance. Despite his obvious talent and appeal, unlike Bergman, Ralphsmith is yet to demonstrate he can win a game off his own boot and for this reason I think he'll go a little later than many expect.​

Rookie Draft
I'm only looking to take one Rookie, but I'd really like to see SOS get away from these lost souls of dubious character such as Bugg & Fasolo simply because they've got a senior body. Having said that, one player I would potentially look at that's had a couple of cracking years across half-back and through the middle at SANFL level is Jack Trengove. Otherwise I'd be happy to look at a couple kids who know how to get their hands on the ball. Potential prospects to choose from could include:

Option 1 - Cameron Wild 184cm, 80kg, 28/11/2001, Outside Midfielder, Murray Bushrangers.
Wild moved from Northern to Murray this year where he was able to substantially develop his game and improved his average output from 12.8 disposals/match to 23.8 disposals per match over 13 games. He also represented Vic Country for 2 games at 2019 U18 Nationals where he averaged 15 disposals/match on limited game time. While he's not as quick as Trent Bianco or Dylan Stephens, he's still more than quick enough to put himself into space where he can run with ball in hand and cause the opposition headaches if they don't pay him due attention or respect. While only a third of his possessions are contested, Wild still averages over 3 clearances/game proving he's more than capable of finding his own ball when required.​

Option 2 - Zakery Pretty 183cm, 80kg, 27/7/2001, Balanced Midfielder, Eastern Ranges.
Had an excellent year for Eastern averaging 25.2 disposals over 17 games. Plays as a true balanced midfielder with almost a 50/50 split between contested and uncontested possession. Generally plays within his limitations and as a result he prefers to dish off to a player in the clear by hand rather than foot. One area that's not so pretty is his defensive rating and this is another area he'll need to work on to make it at the next level. I suspect he might be just a little too Pretty to make it into the Rookie Draft, but you just never, never know​
Love your work!
 

TerryWallet

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Selective? That's sort of what I suggested you were doing....anyway...
Look, no harm done and thank you for the lengthy and well thought out viewpoints and just because I disagree with several points, doesn't make them any more interesting to read.
There is no 'one way' to do things. That would be somewhat dumb to lock oneself into a formula that hasn't scope to twist and turn when required and would ultimately make for a recipe to disaster.

When it come to our club (the one I'm most interested in) my view is to add to the sum of the parts. This is hard to express and it doesn't simply come about getting a small forward for the sake of adding a small forward, any more than it does for adding talent for simply adding talent.

You and I could use the same formula yet still come up with different results. There's never one simple way to go about putting the right pieces in place to suit a. The List Build. b. The TPP constraints c. Game-plan needs d. Coaches requests e. marquee player focus.

I still see us as somewhat a dumb competition that has a long way to go in order to maximise all aspects of List building, management, development etc.
It just keeps showing its face over and again, so it's somewhat hard to pretend that we're in any way advanced at all.

........and in the meantime we'll all be focused on getting the best player of the draft......as if that's the be-all and end-all. :)

Dumb competition you say.....

On behalf of TheGreatDodoro i'm going to take offence at that on behalf of my 27 flankers....um sorry, 28 now with Cutler.
 

HARKER

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It's not easy becoming a serious AFL footballer.
I just don't see anything particularly exciting in this years draft, yet we all want to be excited.
Some will jump out of the blocks but other than Rowell, we may be expecting more than we'll see.

Ben Ainsworth was highly regarded in his draft year, yet being at The Suns is still finding his way - Serong & Flanders
Essendon were genuinely interested is Setterfield at #1 and that's where SOS had him - Still finding his way and similar to Kemp
Young & Ash are exciting but Buntine and Haynes took some years to find their feet in similar positions.

There are very few 'must-haves' here but that goes for everyone in play and which is why if we do see a way of addressing needs, we could end up some way in front.
 

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HARKER

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Dumb competition you say.....

On behalf of TheGreatDodoro i'm going to take offence at that on behalf of my 27 flankers....um sorry, 28 now with Cutler.
None of us are genuises Terry, but our approaches to situations at times seem to be grounded in 'traditional ways' rather than getting ahead of the pack.
I have little idea how to do this but when we hear terms like 'Just get best available' I shudder at the lack of creativity involved.

I trust that better clubs aren't as simple as this but even then we see so many mistakes made by clubs that have flourished in this competition.
It's as though not the smartest win out but the dumbest drop off.
 

windows1

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After a little viewing -

Yes to Serong - No to Flanders
Yes to Young - No to Ash
Yes to Kemp - No to Robertson
Yes to Stephens - Subject to Character
No to Luke Jackson but not because he can't play. Back in TDK.
No to Ash and Flanders????

Please explain.
 

TerryWallet

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Yep, there's a million ways to skin a cat. Sometimes the original way is the best. Sometimes the millionth way is. And sometimes one of the options in between is.

Good judgement, some sound bedrocks, some flexibility of thought and plenty of luck are some of the things any good prognosticator needs.

* Response to Harks. Forgot to quote.
 

ferrisb

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Yep, there's a million ways to skin a cat. Sometimes the original way is the best. Sometimes the millionth way is. And sometimes one of the options in between is.

Good judgement, some sound bedrocks, some flexibility of thought and plenty of luck are some of the things any good prognosticator needs.

* Response to Harks. Forgot to quote.
No need for quoting HARKER.

It was a solid post, one you could in pretty much any circumstance....
 

JustaBattler

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None of us are genuises Terry, but our approaches to situations at times seem to be grounded in 'traditional ways' rather than getting ahead of the pack.
I have little idea how to do this but when we hear terms like 'Just get best available' I shudder at the lack of creativity involved.

I trust that better clubs aren't as simple as this but even then we see so many mistakes made by clubs that have flourished in this competition.
It's as though not the smartest win out but the dumbest drop off.
I think your last paragraph is more right than wrong.
 
Last edited:

AT97

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The afldraftcentral guys have released their annual draft guide for those intereste.


 
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LemmingMaster

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Final Draft Position
2019 Picks: 10, 17, 22, 43, 57, 70
2020 Picks: Cats 1st, 3rd, 5th.
Based on how the BF phantom draft is going, I will update how I would have drafted given the players that are missing.

1 - Gold Coast - Matt Rowell
2 - Gold Coast -Noah Anderson
3 - Melbourne - Hayden Young
4 - GWS - Tom Green (matched bid)
5 - Adelaide - Sam Flanders
6 - Sydney - Luke Jackson
7 - Fremantle - Dylan Stephens
8 - Melbourne - Caleb Serong
10 Fremantle - Deven Robertson
9 - Carlton - Lachlan Ash
11 Hawthorn - Brodie Kemp
12 Port Adelaide - Fischer McAsey
13 Western Bulldogs - Cody Weightman
14 Fremantle - Liam Henry (Matched Bid)
15 Hawthorn - Finn Maginness (Matched Bid)
16 Geelong - Miles Bergman
17 Gold Coast Suns - Will Gould
18 Brisbane - Trent Rivers
19 Geelong - Cooper Stephens

20 Port Adelaide - Josh Worrell
21 Richmond - Will Day
22 Gold Coast - Trent Bianco



Our Draft Selections
Pick 10 - Ash - I would still select Ash, assuming Fremantle pick Robertson.
Pick 17 - Rivers - I would have picked Rivers here as I feel like he can also play forward
Pick 22 - Elijah Taylor - Small forward with massive amount of upside.
( I would not complain if someone wanted or preferred Dylan Williams.)
Pick 43
Pick 57
 

windows1

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Based on how the BF phantom draft is going, I will update how I would have drafted given the players that are missing.

1 - Gold Coast - Matt Rowell
2 - Gold Coast -Noah Anderson
3 - Melbourne - Hayden Young
4 - GWS - Tom Green (matched bid)
5 - Adelaide - Sam Flanders
6 - Sydney - Luke Jackson
7 - Fremantle - Dylan Stephens
8 - Melbourne - Caleb Serong
10 Fremantle - Deven Robertson
9 - Carlton - Lachlan Ash
11 Hawthorn - Brodie Kemp
12 Port Adelaide - Fischer McAsey
13 Western Bulldogs - Cody Weightman
14 Fremantle - Liam Henry (Matched Bid)
15 Hawthorn - Finn Maginness (Matched Bid)
16 Geelong - Miles Bergman
17 Gold Coast Suns - Will Gould
18 Brisbane - Trent Rivers
19 Geelong - Cooper Stephens

20 Port Adelaide - Josh Worrell
21 Richmond - Will Day
22 Gold Coast - Trent Bianco



Our Draft Selections
Pick 10 - Ash - I would still select Ash, assuming Fremantle pick Robertson.
Pick 17 - Rivers - I would have picked Rivers here as I feel like he can also play forward
Pick 22 - Elijah Taylor - Small forward with massive amount of upside.
( I would not complain if someone wanted or preferred Dylan Williams.)
Pick 43
Pick 57
Just hypothetically if GWS traded up with Melbourne and had 3 and then matched on Green...how would you see the top 12 playing out?
 

BigBreakfast

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A small forward for us to consider:

Love the comparison to Papley. Seems to have a bit of larrikin and mongrel in him as well. Could make Papley trade redundant.
Predicted to go between 30 and 60.
 

murphster

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I think your last paragraph is more right than wrong.
I think analytics is becoming more and more valuable as a tool and also a lot more widely used across the AFL in a number of key areas not just drafting and recruitment, Carltons teaming up with Deakin to introduce the Carlton College of Sport is a very smart and progressive idea and I think it will deliver some great results for the club in a lot of different key areas, analytics being just one, not sure who’s brain child it was but they deserve some big kudos for it as i think in the end it has the potential to put us on the cutting edge in all things sport, which is, imho, another signpost on the road pointing to the club heading in the right direction for the first time in 20 odd years and it is damn exciting.
 

Drexl 31

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The main area I'd like SOS to tackle is our transition from defence to attack. It's simply far too slow. Draft Prospects such as Trent Bianco, Jeremy Sharp, Lachie Ash and Dylan Stephens help to address this area with speed, acceleration, endurance, accumulation and elite foot skills. The other area I'd like to see SOS address is finding a young ruckman to develop. The fact that Essendon attempted to bring Sandilands out of retirement should indicate that the current batch of backup ruckmen on AFL lists simply don't measure up.

2019 Picks: 9, 43, 57, 70, 85
Future Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th.

Draft Strategy with Pick 9.
SOS can either spend Pick 9 or trade Pick 9, but if he does choose to trade Pick 9 then it will happen on the night. According to rumours I've heard (but unable to confirm) SOS has been approached by three clubs, Gold Coast, Fremantle & Geelong. Interestingly, they're supposedly all after the same draft prospect, Luke Jackson.

Rumoured/Potential Trade Scenarios
Trade 1: Gold Coast
The Suns approached SOS about trading Pick 9 and our Future 2nd for Picks 15 & 20. There will be an Academy Selection and potentially 2 Father/Son Selections as well as an NGA selection so these Picks could end up being 19 & 24. SOS and Brodie have declined this offer, but informed the Suns they open to trading Pick 9 if they consider the offer good enough.​
Trade 2: Fremantle
Freo are very, very keen on Jackson, but are concerned the Cats will beat them to the punch. The Dockers have offered up Picks 10 and 69 for Pick 9. SOS & Brodie are adamant that any deal must include Pick 22. Should it go ahead, the final deal may look something like:​
Picks 10 & 22 to Carlton > Picks 9 & Future 2nd to the Dockers.​
Trade 3: Geelong
Like us, the Cats have issues with their ruck division and have made no secret of their wish to acquire Jackson. SOS is supposedly more open to dealing with Wells due to potential of greater exposure to the 2019 National Draft. While I haven't any details (the mail wasn't that good), potential trades could look like, but not necessarily limited to:​
Pick 9 & Future 1st to Geelong > Picks 14, 17 & 24 to Carlton​
Pick 9 & Future 2nd to Geelong > Picks 14 & 17 to Carlton​

Pick Swaps
Swap 1: Geelong
Despite the potential trade scenarios above, even if they can't get Pick 9, I think Wells and his team may be amenable to orchestrating a Pick swap, because that still gives them plenty of exposure in this years National Draft while potentially improving their position in next years draft. One needs to remember though that Pick 17 may well become Pick 19 or 20 by the time you account for Father/Son, NGA & Academy selections.​
Future 1st to Geelong > Pick 17 & Cats Future 1st to Carlton.​

Ideal Scenario (at least in a perfect world).
Trade 2: Fremantle
Pick 9 & Future 2nd to Fremantle > Picks 10 & 22 to Carlton​
Pick Swap: Geelong
Future 1st to Geelong > Pick 17 & Cats Future 1st to Carlton​
Gives us great selection of Picks in the 2019 National Draft while leaving us with a 1st Rounder in the 2020 National Draft.

Final Draft Position
2019 Picks: 10, 17, 22, 43, 57, 70
2020 Picks: Cats 1st, 3rd, 5th.

Draft Selections - Top Ten
Pick 1: Matthew Rowell - Gold Coast
Well knock me down with a feather....​
Pick 2: Noah Anderson - Gold Coast
De Goey clone. Dunno what they see in him tbh.​
Pick 3: Tom Green - GWS (matching bid from Melbourne)
Fits the Demons MO perfectly, but unfortunately the Giants have first dibs.​
Pick 4: Sam Flanders - Melbourne
Seriously good forward pocket with vice-like hands that is tremendous at finding his own ball inside 50 or through the midfield. Would love him at the Blues.​
Pick 5: Caleb Serong - Adelaide
Will provide a point of difference both up forward and through the middle for the Crows. Great addition to go with Chayce Jones from last year.​
Pick 6: Hayden Young - Sydney
The Swans need a lot of things as they start their rebuild. Don't be surprised if they take Deven Robertson here as their midfield is another area that requires refurbishment.​
Pick 7: Lachie Ash - Fremantle
With an ageing Stephen Hill and after losing Brad Hill, the Dockers will be looking for someone with elite disposal and speed. Ash fits the bill.​
Pick 8: Brodie Kemp - Melbourne
After trading Hogan, Weideman not coming on and McDonald's injury and form issues, the Demons got found out for a lack of tall forwards last year. Kemp's versatility could be exactly what they're looking for......although he's unlikely to be much help next season.​
Pick 9: Luke Jackson - Fremantle (traded from Carlton)
Along with the Cats & Suns, the Dockers are very, very keen on Jackson.​
Pick 10: Dylan Stephens - Carlton (traded from Fremantle)
Speedy outside mid with a huge tank that can accumulate possessions and has a penetrating left foot.​
Our Draft Selections
Pick 10 - Dylan Stephens 183cm, 74kg, 8/1/2001, Outside Midfielder, Norwood SA.
Outside midfielder with pace to burn, good acceleration and has a massive tank. Like many natural lefties Stephens has an accurate, raking kick with good penetration, but tends to be deadliest over longer distances rather than shorter ones. Apart from the U18 Nationals, all of Stephens games have been at SANFL League or Reserves level against men where he averaged 19 disposals/match and 31 disposals/match respectively. One of the issues I tend to have with outside midfielders is their ability to find their own ball. Stephens essentially played an outside role at League level with only 33% of his possessions were contested, but when asked to play a more inside/balanced role at Reserve level over 61% of his possessions were contested......so he can find his own ball when required. The other thing I like about Stephens is his excellent work rate. His defensive running and preparedness to tackle is first rate, which is something many of our current midfielders lack. I think a line-breaking midfielder with excellent disposal and the running power of Walsh would be a fantastic addition to our list. Although only lightly-framed at this stage, I think Stephens has already demonstrated that he's good enough that he'll be pushing for a spot from Round 1.​

Pick 17 - Cooper Stephens 188cm, 83kg, 17/1/2001, Inside Midfielder, Geelong Falcons, Vic Country
I'm one who believes when you see a bargain you take it and that you can never have enough players who know how to get their hands on the ball. Had the Geelong Falcon's Co-Captain not broken his leg in the 3rd Round of the NAB League, I suspect we could be talking about Stephens as a potential Top 10 Pick. His best work is done around the stoppages with clean, sharp hands and short kicks based upon good decisions, however his long kicking when running flat knacker needs work. The traits that typify Stephens are his effort, application, consistency, work ethic and hardness around the contest. Stephens' was held in such high regard that despite being ruled out of the U18 Champs he was still named as Vice-Captain of the Vic Country squad. Although arriving at the Draft Combine with a limited fitness base Stephens still managed to top the demanding Yo-Yo test recording 21.8 and running vertical jump of 83cm. While I would expect Stephens to spend much of his first year at VFL level honing some areas of his game and rebuilding some of his fitness base he's demonstrated that he's already got much of the physical size and endurance he'll require at AFL level. I think it's also important not pigeon-hole players to a certain position as Stephens has also demonstrated his ability to play some good footy across half-back as an underager during the 2018 U18 Nationals against a very powerful SA side.​
*Pick 17 is likely to become Pick 19 or 20 with potential bids on Maginness, Henry and Mead pushing it out.

Pick 22 - Trent Bianco 178cm, 70kg, 20/1/2001, Defender, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic Metro
Bianco is a small running defender, much in the style of Jayden Short or Kade Simpson, but probably a little more capable of finding his own ball when required. Bianco generally plays on the outside where he accelerates down the ground before picking out a team mate with his sublime foot skills. He is an extremely damaging player simply due to sheer amount of metres he takes off the opposition before they can react. The Oakleigh Chargers' skipper had a superb 2019 NAB League season where he averaged almost 27 disposals/match with around two-thirds of those distributed by his lethal kicking. One of the things I really like about Bianco is how good his decision-making and execution is at top speed and as a result he rarely makes mistakes or commits clangers. Other things I like are his effort, application and consistency, so you know exactly what you're going to get from him each time he takes the field. Bianco's strengths can also be his weakness at times and he can find himself caught out of position occasionally, especially if the team mate he's just delivered the ball to turns it over. Bianco is very light-bodied at this stage and will need to hit the gym, but as Simmo and Short have already demonstrated, you don't need to be built like Arnie to play this role.​
*Pick 22 could end up being around Pick 25 or 26.
*I also looked hard at Sharp here, but preferred Dylan Stephens earlier.
Pick 43 - Nick Bryan 202cm, 87kg, 22/10/2001, Ruck, Oakleigh Chargers, Vic Metro
At some point you've got to bite the bullet and develop a ruckman and I won't lie, Bryan will take somewhere in the 2-4 year range to bring up to AFL standard. Not only is he tall, but he runs 20m in 2.91sec, has a standing vertical leap of 69 cm and has very clean hands at ground level. Although he's not Ben King quick, it was quite amazing to watch him run away from the opposition when he decides to use his speed. One area where Bryan has significantly improved this year is his contested marking. At this stage he is obviously still very raw, but I think he's got enormous scope for development and improvement in his game. I see our ruck division as our achilles heal. We have a once-in-a-generation midfielder in Cripps and potentially another one in Walsh, without a quality ruckman to give them a regular first look at the ball. Kreuzer struggles to get off the ground these days and was comfortably pantsed by virtually every quality ruckman he came up against this year. Pittonet's aggression will be more than welcome, but like Kreuzer, he doesn't often get off the ground and he's relatively slow. Anyone who has watched TDK at VFL level will tell you that he's yet to show he's got the tank to be a full-time ruck and Casboult is really a fill-in. As stated earlier, at some point you've got to bite the bullet and develop a ruckman and Nick Bryan would make for an exciting start.​
*Pick 43 may come in to around Pick 41.

Pick 57 - Hugo Ralphsmith 186cm, 77kg, 9/11/2001, Forward, Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro
Ralphsmith is one of a number of medium X-Factor forwards available for selection in the 2019 National Draft that also includes Elijah Taylor and Miles Bergman. Ralphsmith is capable dragging down spectacular marks, running rings around opponents, bursting away from traffic at break-neck speed and kicking unbelievable goals, but like many X-Factor types he can also go missing for extended periods of time. Where Ralphsmith is different to many X-Factor types is that he's not limited by a lack of endurance and he tested extremely well in the Yo-Yo test and the 2km time trial. While there have been some comparisons with Jaidyn Stephenson and he may look not dissimilar to Stephenson with ball in hand he is not. I watched Stephenson single-handedly rip apart an SA side at U18 National Championship level with 30 disposals and 5 goals from a wing, the most Ralphsmith has achieved is 20 disposals and 1 goal at NAB League level. There's a big difference. Apart from consistency, the other areas of his game he'll need to improve upon is his defensive work-rate and tackling, which is relatively poor given his speed and endurance. Despite his obvious talent and appeal, unlike Bergman, Ralphsmith is yet to demonstrate he can win a game off his own boot and for this reason I think he'll go a little later than many expect.​

Rookie Draft
I'm only looking to take one Rookie, but I'd really like to see SOS get away from these lost souls of dubious character such as Bugg & Fasolo simply because they've got a senior body. Having said that, one player I would potentially look at that's had a couple of cracking years across half-back and through the middle at SANFL level is Jack Trengove. Otherwise I'd be happy to look at a couple kids who know how to get their hands on the ball. Potential prospects to choose from could include:

Option 1 - Cameron Wild 184cm, 80kg, 28/11/2001, Outside Midfielder, Murray Bushrangers.
Wild moved from Northern to Murray this year where he was able to substantially develop his game and improved his average output from 12.8 disposals/match to 23.8 disposals per match over 13 games. He also represented Vic Country for 2 games at 2019 U18 Nationals where he averaged 15 disposals/match on limited game time. While he's not as quick as Trent Bianco or Dylan Stephens, he's still more than quick enough to put himself into space where he can run with ball in hand and cause the opposition headaches if they don't pay him due attention or respect. While only a third of his possessions are contested, Wild still averages over 3 clearances/game proving he's more than capable of finding his own ball when required.​

Option 2 - Zakery Pretty 183cm, 80kg, 27/7/2001, Balanced Midfielder, Eastern Ranges.
Had an excellent year for Eastern averaging 25.2 disposals over 17 games. Plays as a true balanced midfielder with almost a 50/50 split between contested and uncontested possession. Generally plays within his limitations and as a result he prefers to dish off to a player in the clear by hand rather than foot. One area that's not so pretty is his defensive rating and this is another area he'll need to work on to make it at the next level. I suspect he might be just a little too Pretty to make it into the Rookie Draft, but you just never, never know​
Thanks. Epic post.
 

JustaBattler

Everyone Looks Better In Blue
May 31, 2012
17,666
26,074
AFL Club
Carlton
I think analytics is becoming more and more valuable as a tool and also a lot more widely used across the AFL in a number of key areas not just drafting and recruitment, Carltons teaming up with Deakin to introduce the Carlton College of Sport is a very smart and progressive idea and I think it will deliver some great results for the club in a lot of different key areas, analytics being just one, not sure who’s brain child it was but they deserve some big kudos for it as i think in the end it has the potential to put us on the cutting edge in all things sport, which is, imho, another signpost on the road pointing to the club heading in the right direction for the first time in 20 odd years and it is damn exciting.
Well there is a very old saying in business "if you can't measure it - you can't manage it" - I think the same holds true for any organisation and its processes and people. It is always good to at least benchmark against best practise and aim to exceed it...but I suspect all CLubs are awake to the importance of same - lots of coaches go on fact finding missions to all sorts of elite competitive institutions around the world ...

irrespective of process - it is only as good as the people driving it - or bad.
 

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