List Mgmt. Carlton's 2020 Draft Thread

[swuzzlebubble]

Very interesting is this phenomenon. Malcolm Gladwell writes about it in his book 'Outliers' which is an amazing read that I recommend all read. What he identifies is that in professional sports there is generally a calendar window where the most successful players come from. This is often those with birthdays early in the representative year - as when they are growing up, they can be up to a year older (and therefore more physically developed) than those they are competing against. Over time they begin to win representative positions and have access to additional training, more tuition and coaching. From there it snowballs, they continue to get better as they work more. Eventually they hit the pros and theyre drafted and from there get even more training and go on to become superstars.

So while the thinking may be take a younger kid because they have more development, it's no guarantee that they'll be better than the older kid and that they're merely 6 months behind in development, it could be that they havent had the same development of the older kid thus far and might never be able to catch up.

This is the reason why I will be planning the birth of my future children around representative football age qualification windows

All AFL Players Broken Down by Birth Month - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

The link above suggests to me games played is not correlated to birth month, but the number of draftees is.

 

[La Dispute]

I can't remember a year the Phantom drafts were so radically different outside the top 5, and even they aren't as like-for-like as most years.

The description for Angwin sounds horrible though. Biggest trait is endurance, but also doesn't get much of the ball? I'd be shocked if Ford was available as late as our second pick and we don't pounce.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I can't remember a year the Phantom drafts were so radically different outside the top 5, and even they aren't as like-for-like as most years.

The description for Angwin sounds horrible though. Biggest trait is endurance, but also doesn't get much of the ball? I'd be shocked if Ford was available as late as our second pick and we don't pounce.

I was thinking the same thing.

Angwin sounds like nothing we’d be interested in. Rowe I’m torn on. I like players who like kicking goals but apart from goal sense and an excellent set shot at goal, he doesn’t appear to have AFL traits. What I like about watching his highlights is that when he takes a mark he isn’t scared to go back and kick a set shot as opposed to someone like Harry who is desperate to play on and snap it around the body.

But yeah, we’re all going in blind this year so who knows how tomorrow night will pan out?


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[La Dispute]

I was thinking the same thing.

Angwin sounds like nothing we’d be interested in. Rowe I’m torn on. I like players who like kicking goals but apart from goal sense and an excellent set shot at goal, he doesn’t appear to have AFL traits. What I like about watching his highlights is that when he takes a mark he isn’t scared to go back and kick a set shot as opposed to someone like Harry who is desperate to play on and snap it around the body.

But yeah, we’re all going in blind this year so who knows how tomorrow night will pan out?


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Rowe looks like a classic project rookie pick, and tbh I'd be astonished if we went down that path with either pick. Same with Durdin, who has a few more strengths, but as many weaknesses. I know we're on the hunt for a small forward, but we've got to do our homework and pick the right one.

Still think there's a few players on our radar we think could slip through and either do a minor upgrade into the top 25 or sit back and use one or both picks on a slider.

 

[The Grover]

Poulter interviewed for ch10 news, he said Crows, Freo and Blues shown the most interest.

 

[Pablito]

Poulter interviewed for ch10 news, he said Crows, Freo and Blues shown the most interest.

Crows will take him before us I reckon.
Looks like Rowe is just about a lock to us.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Has Angwin and Rowe to us. Two very strange phantoms

AFL Draft 2020: Final phantom draft, mock draft, every draft pick predicted, analysis, Matt Balmer, draft order, bids, best players | FOX SPORTS

<b><a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2020-live-afl-draft-live-updates-order-and-results-draft-picks-video-how-to-watch-live-blog/news-story/357e8c8801791ad51c17d641275f6e14" target="_blank">FOLLOW THE AFL DRAFT LIVE HERE</a> AND <a...

coupler.foxsports.com.au

Especially with some of the names still available: Winder, Ford, Ginnavin, Neale, Brand, Rioli...

 

[Manhattanite]

Yes, but you also need to be cautious of a flash in the pan season.

It comes down to risk vs reward. Is the risk of a lack of exposed form at SANFL league worth his potential upside for the cost of a 2nd round selection?

I hardly know anything about Wehr but from what I have read I just don’t know why would we use a second round pick for someone who seems to have played less than 10 decent SANFL games in the 4 years since he turned 18? How much upside can he have versus say Winder or anyone else for that matter?

He sounds like a very late draft pick or a rookie pick. If someone takes him before that then good luck to them.




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[BigBreakfast]

Feel like there is going to be an earlier that expected bid on Rioli, too much pedigree on the line. Someone will take a stab, wouldn’t hate it if we were the ones to do so. Many are hoping for a goal kicking pressure forward and there is a Rioli available?

 

[barass70]

South Australian inside mid is on top of our list.. tough nut

 

[La Dispute]

Powell

 

[Pablito]

South Australian inside mid is on top of our list.. tough nut

I'm guessing poulter?

 

[murphster]

The day before the draft and i have very little idea what is going on with every club. It's great. Tomorrow should be fun.

I remember the days when Nat Southby would tweet our whole draft a week before draft day lol.

The implementation of live trading has made the art of phantom drafting pretty irrelevant, which in itself is a shame as i used to enjoy that period between trade closing and draft night. But the old rules made draft night itself pretty boring and predictable.

But now here we are a day before the draft and Twomey, Balmer, Beveridge and co have little idea what is happening, let alone us. It makes draft day actually intriguing and fun. Anything can happen because of live trading, and therefore clubs are incentivised to keep their intentions to themselves.

Shame we lost the pre eminent live trader in SOS, will be interesting to see what our new list boss does in regard to this area but it just won’t be the same without SOS jerking the strings to make others dance or twitch.

We should have brought him in just for the trade and draft period as a consultant, this could have happened if Liddle didn’t accuse him of sabotage, the knobend.

 

[Stamos]

Powell

Pedlar maybe?

 

[murphster]

Pedlar maybe?

I noticed Austin mentioned an inside mid first when asked the question about what we would be looking for.

 

[Eiffel 65]

South Australian inside mid is on top of our list.. tough nut

Are we taking a good look at any of the WA boys or is our focus elsewhere?

 

[Bostonian]

Why would we tell the world who is on top of our list?

 

[Manhattanite]

Powell

Could be but in that case we would need to trade our future first (and get back a future third i guess) or our future second to get a pick high enough to get him - makes tomorrow interesting


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[Manhattanite]

Pedlar maybe?

Yeah he seems to be more of a tough nut than the other two south Australian mids but like Powell, hard to see Pedlar making it to pick 31 which means we will be making a live trade!




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[Manhattanite]

Why would we tell the world who is on top of our list?

Sometimes it doesn’t matter eg Cripps - I remember we were pretty public about our interest in him and no other club cared

But this time with a pick 31 I agree we should play cards close to our chest, especially as it seems we may be making a live trade too


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[BRADLESTICKS]

Going through some phantom drafts and looking back at our pick swap with the swans we have traded out our future 3rd round pick for what could be as little as a 3 to 5 pick upgrade once academy picks are taken into account, a really strange trade considering the cats got 27 for the demons future 3rd, I still can't understand the need to go so early on that trade when better options could open up on draft night, seems a huge miscalculation by our list management team.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Why would we tell the world who is on top of our list?

24 hours out from the draft, I’m fairly sure recruiters aren’t looking to BF to finalise their list choices. We have some crackers on here but, not quite that good.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Wehr sounds like a Boekhorst type pick...

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Has Angwin and Rowe to us. Two very strange phantoms

AFL Draft 2020: Final phantom draft, mock draft, every draft pick predicted, analysis, Matt Balmer, draft order, bids, best players | FOX SPORTS

<b><a href="https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2020-live-afl-draft-live-updates-order-and-results-draft-picks-video-how-to-watch-live-blog/news-story/357e8c8801791ad51c17d641275f6e14" target="_blank">FOLLOW THE AFL DRAFT LIVE HERE</a> AND <a...

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...erg!

 

[Stamos]

Wehr sounds like a Boekhorst type pick...

Or an Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

37

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star