Preview Cause for Optimism - Finals 2020

[3KZ is Football]

Is that where the Dan McStay concerns stem from?

 

[Tom14]

Cause for optimism:

Geez that Port percentage of 93% across their 7 games v the top 8 is pretty poor, considering their percentage overall was in the high 130s.

 

[Tom14]

Repeating my post in the other finals thread, this is a aeally good analysis of our team strengths and weakenesses: https://theshinboner.com/2020/09/22...is-shinboner-clearances-harris-andrews-gabba/

Some highlights from it though I recommend reading the whole piece:

A handful of Brisbane facts, from the beginning of 2019:

• Only Richmond has more wins (31 to Brisbane’s 30)
• Beaten every team except one (Richmond)
• 19-3 record at the Gabba
• Seven-game winning streak
• The Grand Final is at the Gabba

In theory it’s set up perfectly for the Lions to make a premiership run, yet they’re third* in current markets and it seems to be commonly accepted among most.

(*On Thursday we’ll get to why Port Adelaide is a world away in fourth)

It’s a tricky conundrum to figure out, but first let’s start with the positives – what’s propelled Brisbane to a second consecutive top-four finish.

Chris Fagan’s ‘we’re not the Harris Andrews Football Club’ will take some beating for line of the season.

When the best key defender in the game went down, naturally there was conjecture over how much Brisbane would miss him.

The point overlooked is that the longer the season has gone, the more Brisbane has stemmed the quality of inside 50s conceded, coincidentally much like last season.

When mentioning the high press earlier, a consequence of not getting it right is conceding too many high-quality entries.

When it’s on – as we’ve seen more and more from Brisbane – the lower quality of inside 50 entries means its defenders start with an advantage. The result is fewer scoring shots conceded.

Keidean Coleman has shown flashes over his first month at AFL level, but it’d be unrealistic to expect a lot from him on the finals stage – as much as the puns with his surname would make it all worthwhile.

Coleman’s introduction over the last month has led to Cam Rayner spending more time up the field. It raises the question of whether the forward setup stays the same during the finals because a Rayner breakout changes Brisbane’s whole look.

You know it has to come at some point; Rayner has all the tools to do so and too much talent not to. He’s built steadily year on year, steadily impacting matches for longer. The key question: Is his time now, or next year?

This is all obviously nitpicking of the highest order, because it’s a nice forward line. But it’s these minuscule differences which differentiate between a very good side and a premiership side.

 

[3KZ is Football]

When you look at the form line, Richmond have hardly been setting the world on fire against some ordinary opposition. They also haven’t been scoring heavily. Thus gives me cause for optimism.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

When Hugh, Bez et al went after Maynard after what he did to Mitch I suddenly thought we can actually win this thing. It was a big turning point in where we are at as a team.

 

[Slitherin9]

Excellent OP 3KZ
I honestly think we're due against the Tiges. The last 2 games at the Gabba we dominated the first half but couldn't convert. Now is our time, kick straight and we'll be up by 6 goals at half time and we don't lose from there.
Andrews and Berry back. We should be favourites

 

[X AE A12]

In contrast to our last encounter with the Tigers, MRobbo in his 200th had an off night, and the 4 day break was clearly hampering Clug and Berry, among the early loss of Rayner, Charlie went off for a while, and we had Ballenden, Payne and Skinner all chucked in the deep end iirc. Ah Chee hadn't emerged, Lyons, Linc and Zorko all got into scoring positions but didnt execute, and it was at Metricon. Starc made a costly turnover kicking out which would be highly uncharacteristic on current form, think Neale might have even had a dirty night. Its bloody game on i tells ya

Edit: Neale just had 26, he'd be filthy with that and will no doubt not let it happen again

 

[Mighty Lions]

In contrast to our last encounter with the Tigers, MRobbo in his 200th had an off night, and the 4 day break was clearly hampering Clug and Berry, among the early loss of Rayner, Charlie went off for a while, and we had Ballenden, Payne and Skinner all chucked in the deep end iirc. Ah Chee hadn't emerged, Lyons, Linc and Zorko all got into scoring positions but didnt execute, and it was at Metricon. Starc made a costly turnover kicking out which would be highly uncharacteristic on current form, think Neale might have even had a dirty night. Its bloody game on i tells ya

Edit: Neale just had 26, he'd be filthy with that and will no doubt not let it happen again

In that game, Richmond smashed us in clearances all game. It made our midfield look 2nd rate which is rare occurance. I believe fatigue was 1 reason for the results as we had played a group of games pretty close together. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue next week which is a plus.

 

[jackess]

In that game, Richmond smashed us in clearances all game. It made our midfield look 2nd rate which is rare occurance. I believe fatigue was 1 reason for the results as we had played a group of games pretty close together. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue next week which is a plus.

We won clearances 29-20

 

[Mighty Lions]

We won clearances 29-20

In stats I agree we won the clearances but the stats didnt show how damaging their mids were with those clearances. If you watch the game again, Richmonds mids were much more damaging with the ball.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I feel very optimistic about the change in personnel between our last final and now. Not many of the so called experts are on to this, but we are a significantly stronger team in 2020 because we have improved our depth and the quality in our list goes all the way from player 1 to 22. To illustrate this, look at the player “trade ups” we have done from the GWS final. Robinson was injured and missed the GWS game, so he counts. Some may be called as break even, but the total effect is one of significant improvement.

Out from 2019 - Robertson, Witherden, Adams, Christensen, Hodge

Replaced in 2020 - Lester, Starcevich, Birchall, Coleman, Robinson

It is significant that the biggest impact has been a massive improvement in defence. The inclusion of Lester and Starcevich alone, for Robertson and Witherden can’t be downplayed. It is a massive trade up for mine and will be hugely influential during the finals.

 

[mpal6]

In stats I agree we won the clearances but the stats didnt show how damaging their mids were with those clearances. If you watch the game again, Richmonds mids were much more damaging with the ball.

Shai Bolton tore us one in center bounces that day. Geelong did a good job on him though, I'm sure match committee is taking note of all the opposition tips/tactics from recent Richmond games.

 

[jackess]

In stats I agree we won the clearances but the stats didnt show how damaging their mids were with those clearances. If you watch the game again, Richmonds mids were much more damaging with the ball.

Yeah their quality of clearances was better (I think they kicked 2 from a centre clearance) but smashed was just a bit OTP. We won clearances around the ground 21-10 which is a smashing. Centre clearances we usually struggle to break even with Oscar rucking. Around the ground we do better because we play an extra at the clearance.

 

[X AE A12]

I feel very optimistic about the change in personnel between our last final and now. Not many of the so called experts are on to this, but we are a significantly stronger team in 2020 because we have improved our depth and the quality in our list goes all the way from player 1 to 22. To illustrate this, look at the player “trade ups” we have done from the GWS final. Robinson was injured and missed the GWS game, so he counts. Some may be called as break even, but the total effect is one of significant improvement.

Out from 2019 - Robertson, Witherden, Adams, Christensen, Hodge

Replaced in 2020 - Lester, Starcevich, Birchall, Coleman, Robinson

It is significant that the biggest impact has been a massive improvement in defence. The inclusion of Lester and Starcevich alone, for Robertson and Witherden can’t be downplayed. It is a massive trade up for mine and will be hugely influential during the finals.

Much stronger and better reads of play, Richmond's ability to tie us up and create space for Riewoldt to run into is lessened, and Lynch may not even play so the out the back ones will be less, I hope he does so Andrews can get the chocolates on him this time. Our intensity from being better rested should stop 3 or 4 of their assy opportunities getting converted and Hipwood will get on a tear, can't wait!!

 

[3KZ is Football]

Much stronger and better reads of play, Richmond's ability to tie us up and create space for Riewoldt to run into is lessened, and Lynch may not even play so the out the back ones will be less, I hope he does so Andrews can get the chocolates on him this time. Our intensity from being better rested should stop 3 or 4 of their assy opportunities getting converted and Hipwood will get on a tear, can't wait!!

Absolutely the Football IQ and composure of Lester and Starcevich is a mile and a half higher than Robertson, Witherden and Adams combined.

 

[M Malice]

The Tigers aren't too worried about raw clearance stats, they concentrate on getting damaging clearances, it's a bit like hit out stats being grossly overrated, we need a stat "clearance to a clear advantage".

 

[3KZ is Football]

Richmond punish sides on the turnover, particularly on the wings as sides play down the line. There are two examples in this package from our game against them earlier in the year, both involving terrible kicking from Witherden - the first is at 4.55 and the second is at 5.32. Both cost us goals and both typify why Witherden is not getting a game anymore.



I’m sure the players will be far more switched on as they transition out of defence and I wouldn’t be surprised to see us attempting to use the corridor more. The other thing notable in the highlights package is the number of times Richmond forwards got goal side of our defence and scored. That is Under 10’s 101 stuff and you can be confident that this won’t happen again next Friday night.

Finally, when we played Richmond in Round 10 we had Witherden, Ellis-Yolmen, Ballenden, Skinner and Payne in the team. None of these players, with the possible exception of Payne, if Andrews doesn’t get up, would be expected to play in the Qualifying Final.

We are a SIGNIFICANTLY stronger and SMARTER team this time around.

 

[X AE A12]

I think in play Richmond look to get their game breakers in contests with players they have a clear advantage on and they identify and move the ball well to those players too. Cotchin on Mcinerney for example. As a team I think we are alert to this and won't let them be as effective at turning those contests through the midfield into effective inside 50s. We've got to be clean by hand, decisive, Birchall needs to be daring, we must keep our feet, but the pressure we have increased with as a group is so improved that we are more than capable of putting a score on Richmond

 

[mpal6]

I think in play Richmond look to get their game breakers in contests with players they have a clear advantage on and they identify and move the ball well to those players too. Cotchin on Mcinerney for example. As a team I think we are alert to this and won't let them be as effective at turning those contests through the midfield into effective inside 50s. We've got to be clean by hand, decisive, Birchall needs to be daring, we must keep our feet, but the pressure we have increased with as a group is so improved that we are more than capable of putting a score on Richmond

Bolded bit will be so crucial, just stay up and run back - you never know when there'll be an opportunity to impact the contest.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I think in play Richmond look to get their game breakers in contests with players they have a clear advantage on and they identify and move the ball well to those players too. Cotchin on Mcinerney for example. As a team I think we are alert to this and won't let them be as effective at turning those contests through the midfield into effective inside 50s. We've got to be clean by hand, decisive, Birchall needs to be daring, we must keep our feet, but the pressure we have increased with as a group is so improved that we are more than capable of putting a score on Richmond

All great points. I’d also love to see Rayner asserting himself in the corridor and driving the ball forward. Time for Rayner to start binge watching old Leigh Matthews videos. Richmond need to know he’s out there, just provided he doesn’t punch anyone.

 

[Viceregal]

just provided he doesn’t punch anyone.

...or damage any of the posts!

 

[Section 5]

Richmond have lost two games since round 5.
In round 8 v GWS Lynch was kept goalless by a tall (204cm) mobile defender in L. Keeffe. Lynch had 6 disposals and 2 marks.
Martin had a good game. No hard tag applied to any player.

In round 11 v Power Lynch did not play
Martin had 17 disposals but disposal was @ 41% so way down. No hard tag applied to any player.

So i hope Lynch needs another week to get over his hammy.

Andrew took Lynch last time but worried to much about looking after Payne. Lester did not play that day
Selection for this game will be interesting.
Richmond tall forwards: Lynch 199 cm- Riewoldt 193 cm- Chol 200 cm (seeing Soldo out for year)
Brisbane tall Defenders: Andrews 201 cm (if selected) - Gardiner 193cm - Lester 192 cm - Payne 197 cm - Eagles 200 cm- McStay? 195 cm.
Gardiner had 4 kicked on him by Riewoldt this year. He shared duties with Adams in Round 23 and QF with Adams, but Riewoldt kicked 7 in those two games.
We probably go Andrews - Gardiner -Lester
If that is the case maybe Lester gets first go at Riewoldt. A gamble i know but our usual matchup has not worked in Riewoldt's case

I am fairly confident we win this one but will require 4 solid quarters of footy and nail every goal that is standard easy shot.

 

[jackess]

Richmond have lost two games since round 5.
In round 8 v GWS Lynch was kept goalless by a tall (204cm) mobile defender in L. Keeffe. Lynch had 6 disposals and 2 marks.
Martin had a good game. No hard tag applied to any player.

In round 11 v Power Lynch did not play
Martin had 17 disposals but disposal was @ 41% so way down. No hard tag applied to any player.

So i hope Lynch needs another week to get over his hammy.

Andrew took Lynch last time but worried to much about looking after Payne. Lester did not play that day
Selection for this game will be interesting.
Richmond tall forwards: Lynch 199 cm- Riewoldt 193 cm- Chol 200 cm (seeing Soldo out for year)
Brisbane tall Defenders: Andrews 201 cm (if selected) - Gardiner 193cm - Lester 192 cm - Payne 197 cm - Eagles 200 cm- McStay? 195 cm.
Gardiner had 4 kicked on him by Riewoldt this year. He shared duties with Adams in Round 23 and QF with Adams, but Riewoldt kicked 7 in those two games.
We probably go Andrews - Gardiner -Lester
If that is the case maybe Lester gets first go at Riewoldt. A gamble i know but our usual matchup has not worked in Riewoldt's case

I am fairly confident we win this one but will require 4 solid quarters of footy and nail every goal that is standard easy shot.

Andrews will go to Lynch and Gardiner will go to Riewoldt. Lester can go on Chol or whoever.

 

[X AE A12]

All great points. I’d also love to see Rayner asserting himself in the corridor and driving the ball forward. Time for Rayner to start binge watching old Leigh Matthews videos. Richmond need to know he’s out there, just provided he doesn’t punch anyone.

He had a dirty first half in the last game, turned the ball over when he is one that can actually deliver the chiseler on the chest of a leading Hipwood or pick out one of our smalls/lurking mids who find space. He'll be up and about

 

[Section 5]

Andrews will go to Lynch and Gardiner will go to Riewoldt. Lester can go on Chol or whoever.

That is what will most likely happen.
But as i mentioned that Riewoldt match up has not worked.
We are just giving away 3 to 4 goals if we continue down that path.