Changes for next year, Round 1

[bananatigz]

B: Grimes, Astbury, Vlastuin
HB: Houli, Rance, Short
C: Pickett, Cotchin, Caddy
HF: Edwards, Lynch, Castagna
F: Bolton, Riewoldt, Rioli
R: Nankervis, Martin, Prestia
I: Soldo, Broad, Lambert, Stack

EMG: Graham, Ross, McIntosh, Baker, Naish, CCJ, RCD, Garthwaite, Balta

Geez going to be some serious competition for spots!

 

[Schlurp]

The back six in 2019 adjusted fairly quickly after Rance's 1st round injury. We were helped though by the unexpected emergence of Sydney Stack and the lift to stellar status of Dylan Grimes. A fit Rance automatically comes straight back in - no brainer. Someone has to go and the two under the pump would be Short and Baker. Roles would adjust but I'd suggest that if Rance resumed his pre 2019 role, dropping Baker would allow the remaining five to only marginally adjust their roles. Short, while maligned in some quarters here, still has value in that sweeping receive and long penetrating kick into attack. Our defence becomes even stronger than this years.

After that, good luck selecting the remaining 16 players. I can't see us changing from our two talls and two rucks structure. Pickett has introduced himself in no uncertain terms and after a full preseason must be a real possibility of a start up in Round 1. Graham and Stack must come back in so I'm now fast running out of positions for available players. Good times ahead.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

If the logic in my argument is so bad(and to be honest it is far from perfect,) then you should have little trouble finding fault in the actual logic I used. Instead you created a deeply flawed “analogy,” which isn’t in the slightest analogous in order to discredit my finding. In fact in my original post I did a better job of pointing out the limitations to my own findings than you have done here, which renders your post pointless as well as flawed. I would welcome you starting again and dissecting my argument on its merits.

Ok, here's an actual argument against the ridiculous premise:

League average score:
2017: 89.5
2018: 83.5
2019: 80.4

Richmond average score against:
2017: 76.5
2018: 71.5
2019: 75.6

So despite scoring dropping over the last 2 years, our points conceded increased this year with Alex Rance out. Even if you do decide to cherry pick less than half a season when the weather's wet and not favourable to scoring, it still only shows a decrease in line with the league dropping overall.

Can't believe I'm actually discussing this 2 days after a premiership

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Grimes...Astbury...Broad
Houli......Rance.....Vlas
Cads......Pickett....Stacky
Shedda..Lynch......Georgie
Bolts......JR..........Rioli

Nank...Prestia...Martin

Soldo...Cotch...JGraham...Lambert

EMG...Ross...Baker...Balta...RCD

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ok, here's an actual argument against the ridiculous premise:

League average score:
2017: 89.5
2018: 83.5
2019: 80.4

Richmond average score against:
2017: 76.5
2018: 71.5
2019: 75.6

So despite scoring dropping over the last 2 years, our points conceded increased this year with Alex Rance out. Even if you do decide to cherry pick less than half a season when the weather's wet and not favourable to scoring, it still only shows a decrease in line with the league dropping overall.

Can't believe I'm actually discussing this 2 days after a premiership

The reason I cherry picked the rounds from after the bye is because that is more or less the point from where the main elements of the premiership backline was in place and the main missing person was Rance. When you use the 2019 average you capture matches where both Rance and Astbury are missing as well as some where Vlastuin, Broad, Houli, Short, Grimes and Broad missed.

If you look at my original post the issue you raise "cherry pick less than half a season when the weather's wet and not favourable to scoring” is dealt with by reference to Richmond’s scoring which was above the average for any of 2017, 2018 and 2019. So if I had cherry picked the period where the conditions were not favourable for scoring, why was Richmond’s scoring so relatively high?

"Can't believe I'm actually discussing this 2 days after a premiership”. I can because you are arguing like you are hungover Barry.

 

[Barunga Bullet]

102 goals 110 behinds is what we conceded in our 12 game winning streak post bye. So 8.75 goals and 9.16 behinds. Teams averaged 61 points against us in that period when the backline was together and settled the whole way I think.

177 goals 131 behinds is what we scored. 14.75 goals and more or less 11 behinds. We averaged 99 points for to show scoring conditions were not especially difficult on the whole.

In 2018 with Rance in the backline in 24 matches teams scored 256.199 against us, about 72 points on average.

In 2017 with Rance there the team averaged conceding similar in the low 70's.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where I am going with this is to ask has the structure of the backline worked better in 2019 without Rance once it was fully stocked from round 15 onwards? And if so, why would that be?

I personally don't think it has to do with Rance the player. I think the issue is Rance the backline general, where it might have been a little bit all about him. So my submission would be that whoever was leading that backline in Rance's absence, presumably Astbury, should continue to do so. And Rance should play a role really no more prominent in the structure and chain of command than Vlastuin or Grimes did this year.

But in for me Rance(of course) Stack(of course) and any of Graham, Ross, CCJ, Balta, Naish, and any ready made recruit/s.

Out Ellis, and after that it gets tougher.

Curve ball trade deal: Only if the players are comfortable with this...go to GCS and offer Rance, Macintosh, maybe even Markov or Moore if they want them, along with Ellis of course. The immediate influx of hardened solid senior players and leadership is what they desperately need. And the fact all of those players come from one successful club should be helpful to them as well. In return we want the bloke who won the GF sprint yesterday - King, and/or another future gun. Use draft picks to equalise the deal.

Rance should theoretically love it, he is just what they need, high profile, high quality, leadership and he has the perfect beach boy looks to suit the Gold Coast, and can get a huge pay packet. Macintosh can get a decent wedge as well.

We benefit by starting to stagger the transition between Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Astbury, Edwards, Martin, Houli and the next group of quality players who lead the team. We clear some nice cap space to help with retention of all our good youngsters.

Gold Coast benefit from getting something meaningful into their club for the inevitable loss of one of these young guns, not just more high end draft picks.

The young gun benefits from coming to a brilliant club and fitting comfortably into the overall plan for us.

boy oh boy wowee! there goes the Dynasty! Is Mr Magic your alternate account?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

boy oh boy wowee! there goes the Dynasty! Is Mr Magic your alternate account?

Hold onto your hat there Barunga. I don’t expect to trade out Rance. and I do think what happened in the lead up to the bye establishes a clear need to retain him as we are too vulnerable to other backline injuries with him missing. The premiership is good evidence it is possible to function without him though, so I was just thinking of any possible ways we could turn that to our long term advantage. Ben King is clearly some sort of specimen and I would think he in particular is worth making radical moves to recruit. He appears to me tough, fast, tall, skilful and waiting for the world to wake up on him might not be a good policy. I have no doubt he could be an effective AFL defender even now while he is developing and when fully mature who knows what role he could fulfil.

I am not into burning blokes, but I must admit, if I were in Rance’s shoes, I might consider the impossible assignment at the GCS to be rather enticing. I am not sure that most people can see the romance and adventure in leaving a strong club to go to a place where there is no glory to be had, just massive respect to be gained if you can have a strong impact. And Rance is one of the few players in footy that could do that imo.

 

[kozi]

Scary depth. Nuts to think with a fit list Stack, Baker, Ross, Balta, Chol will all be fighting for the 1 spot with the likes of Naish, RCD, Egg, CCJ unable to get a look in barring significant injury.

Most likely changes for round 1 next year:
Stack in for Ellis
Graham in for Baker
Rance in for god knows, Broad maybe but whoever it is will be incredibly unlucky


B: Grimes Astbury Vlaustin
HB: Houli Rance Short
C: Caddy Prestia Edwards
HF: Bolton Riewoldt Lambo
F: Rioli Lynch Castagna
FOL: Soldo Dusty Cotch
INT: Nank Graham Pickett Stack
EMG: Ross Baker KMac Chol

It’s an embarrassment of riches.

 

[Monjike]

Tell that to Grimes and Astbury who all year have talked about how important Rance has been teaching them how to get better or watch how the VFL boys all celebrated with Alex last week as he has stepped into that coaching/mentoring role.

The reason our defence looks so much better this year is because it was a collective effort to replace him, while Grimes is the most obvious one Vlas, Houli, Astbury and Broad have all stepped up in his absence and improved tremendously to make the group as a whole better.

Alex will slot in nicely next year as the leader with a year of coaching experience and a whole summer of working as defence again.

Poor guy probably to lose out is likely Baker as Broad, Rance and Grimes can play tall and small. Think Stacky replaces Short too.

I'd have Stacky as an opener...

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Tell that to Grimes and Astbury who all year have talked about how important Rance has been teaching them how to get better or watch how the VFL boys all celebrated with Alex last week as he has stepped into that coaching/mentoring role.

The reason our defence looks so much better this year is because it was a collective effort to replace him, while Grimes is the most obvious one Vlas, Houli, Astbury and Broad have all stepped up in his absence and improved tremendously to make the group as a whole better.

Alex will slot in nicely next year as the leader with a year of coaching experience and a whole summer of working as defence again.

Poor guy probably to lose out is likely Baker as Broad, Rance and Grimes can play tall and small. Think Stacky replaces Short too.

Actually, Rance trains the forwards. Riewoldt and Lynch have spoken about this.

 

[Schlurp]

Actually, Rance trains the forwards. Riewoldt and Lynch have spoken about this.

How brilliant to use the insights of the best full back in the League to skill up two of the best deep forwards in the League.

 

[kozi]

How brilliant to use the insights of the best full back in the League to skill up two of the best deep forwards in the League.

Simultaneous effect is also using the insights of two of the best deep forwards in the league to up skill the best full back.

 

[Grrr]

B: Grimes Astbury Vlastuin
HB: Houli Rance Stack
C: Edwards Prestia Caddy
HF: Lambert Lynch Bolton
F: Castagna Riewoldt Martin
R: Nankervis Cotchin Pickett
INT: Soldo Ross RCD Rioli
EMG: Baker CCJ Broad

 

[db26]

To early this topic for me to read and comment still on cloud 9.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

102 goals 110 behinds is what we conceded in our 12 game winning streak post bye. So 8.75 goals and 9.16 behinds. Teams averaged 61 points against us in that period when the backline was together and settled the whole way I think.

177 goals 131 behinds is what we scored. 14.75 goals and more or less 11 behinds. We averaged 99 points for to show scoring conditions were not especially difficult on the whole.

In 2018 with Rance in the backline in 24 matches teams scored 256.199 against us, about 72 points on average.

In 2017 with Rance there the team averaged conceding similar in the low 70's.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where I am going with this is to ask has the structure of the backline worked better in 2019 without Rance once it was fully stocked from round 15 onwards? And if so, why would that be?

I personally don't think it has to do with Rance the player. I think the issue is Rance the backline general, where it might have been a little bit all about him. So my submission would be that whoever was leading that backline in Rance's absence, presumably Astbury, should continue to do so. And Rance should play a role really no more prominent in the structure and chain of command than Vlastuin or Grimes did this year.

But in for me Rance(of course) Stack(of course) and any of Graham, Ross, CCJ, Balta, Naish, and any ready made recruit/s.

Out Ellis, and after that it gets tougher.

Curve ball trade deal: Only if the players are comfortable with this...go to GCS and offer Rance, Macintosh, maybe even Markov or Moore if they want them, along with Ellis of course. The immediate influx of hardened solid senior players and leadership is what they desperately need. And the fact all of those players come from one successful club should be helpful to them as well. In return we want the bloke who won the GF sprint yesterday - King, and/or another future gun. Use draft picks to equalise the deal.

Rance should theoretically love it, he is just what they need, high profile, high quality, leadership and he has the perfect beach boy looks to suit the Gold Coast, and can get a huge pay packet. Macintosh can get a decent wedge as well.

We benefit by starting to stagger the transition between Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Astbury, Edwards, Martin, Houli and the next group of quality players who lead the team. We clear some nice cap space to help with retention of all our good youngsters.

Gold Coast benefit from getting something meaningful into their club for the inevitable loss of one of these young guns, not just more high end draft picks.

The young gun benefits from coming to a brilliant club and fitting comfortably into the overall plan for us.

Never thought I'd ever see the day where someone would outdo Mr Magic.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

When is fixture out for next year? Will be interesting to see if we get lots of Saturday games.

22 games in a row at the G.

 

[peternorth]

B: Rance Astbury Broad
HB: Houli Vlastin Grimes
C: Stack Pickett Bolton
HF: Reiwoldt Cotchin Lambert
F: Castagna Martin Lynch
R: Soldo Prestia Edwards
I: Soldo, Graham, Rioli, Caddy

Emerg: RCD, McIntosh, Ross, Baker, Balta, Chol, CCJ, Aarts, Short

 

[guruisatiger]

The best part of having rance back next year
Will be during the season we can give all our
Defensive players a rest when needed , they don't all have to play
22 games, and we can be so flexible during
The actual game and during the season,
Meaning they will be fresh mentally and physically
Come finals time,,, a great position to be in

 

[Bazzar]

How brilliant to use the insights of the best full back in the League to skill up two of the best deep forwards in the League.

Leppa was our forward coach in 2017 after returning from the Bears.

 

[Bazzar]

To early this topic for me to read and comment still on cloud 9.

Its a bit like greedy relatives trying to claim nick-nacks and furniture after someone dies.
Id rather wait until trade is over before speculating on our best 22.
Fun to read though.

 

[Sol23]

Stack walks straight back into this side.

 

[Carnis]

Baker in for Graham and you've got a deal.

 

[peternorth]

Who wears number 5 now?

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

Who wears number 5 now?

Let's look at who will upgrade and go from there.

Fridge stays in 34

No. 26	Riley Collier-Dawkins
No. 27	Jack Ross
No. 28	Fraser Turner
No. 29	Shai Bolton
No. 30	Vacant
No. 31	Oleg Markov
No. 32	Luke English
No. 33	Kamdyn McIntosh
No. 34	Jack Graham
No. 35	Nathan Broad
No. 36	Callum Moore
No. 37	Connor Menadue
No. 38	Noah Balta
No. 39	Jake Aarts
No. 40	Callum Coleman-Jones
No. 41	Mabior Chol
No. 42	Ryan Garthwaite
No. 43	Derek Eggmolesse-Smith
No. 44	Vacant
No. 45	Patrick Naish
No. 46	Ben Miller
No. 47	Ivan Soldo
No. 48	Liam Baker

No.50 Marlion Pickett

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Scary depth. Nuts to think with a fit list Stack, Baker, Ross, Balta, Chol will all be fighting for the 1 spot with the likes of Naish, RCD, Egg, CCJ unable to get a look in barring significant injury.

Most likely changes for round 1 next year:
Stack in for Ellis
Graham in for Baker
Rance in for god knows, Broad maybe but whoever it is will be incredibly unlucky


B: Grimes Astbury Vlaustin
HB: Houli Rance Short
C: Caddy Prestia Edwards
HF: Bolton Riewoldt Lambo
F: Rioli Lynch Castagna
FOL: Soldo Dusty Cotch
INT: Nank Graham Pickett Stack
EMG: Ross Baker KMac Chol

It’s an embarrassment of riches.

Broad...Rance.....Grimes
Houli....Astbury...Vlas
Cads....Prestia....Lambo
Bolton..JR..........Rioli
George..Tom......Edwards
Fol...Soldo, Cotch, Dusty
Int...JGraham, Nank, Pickett, Stacky
Emg...Baker, RCD, Ross, KMac